Javen Coleman — OGILVIE

Javen Coleman P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95103vR 111

ERA4.12

FIP4.12

K%28.8%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%16.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL—45

CMD3545

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	54	223	85	23	3	0%	1.4	28.7%	12.1%	16.7%	1.4%	3.00	2.95	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	54	223	85	23	3	0%	1.4	28.7%	12.1%	16.7%	1.4%	3.00	2.95	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	54	223	85	23	3	0%	1.4	38.1%	10.3%	27.8%	1.3%	3.00	1.95	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	33	0	40	171	58	12	5	0%	1.2	25.5%	7.5%	18.0%	3.6%	4.50	3.89	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	33	0	40	171	58	12	5	0%	1.2	25.5%	7.5%	18.0%	3.6%	4.50	3.89	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	TOR	2	0	2	6	5	0	0	0%	1.0	83.3%	0.0%	83.3%	0.0%	0.00	-3.94	—
2026	24	A RAW	TOR	1	0	2	5	3	0	0	0%	1.7	60.0%	0.0%	60.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.97	—
2026	24	AA RAW	TOR	18	0	25	106	37	6	3	0%	1.4	34.9%	5.7%	29.2%	2.8%	2.88	2.42	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	TOR	12	0	11	54	13	6	2	0%	0.9	24.1%	11.1%	13.0%	3.7%	9.53	4.51	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	TOR	5	0	6	24	7	3	1	0%	1.1	28.8%	12.4%	16.4%	2.7%	4.12	4.12	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	46	195	65	15	6	—	—	33.3%	7.7%	25.6%	2.9%	4.45	3.92	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TOR	65	0	68	287	82	33	8	0%	1.0	28.6%	11.4%	17.2%	2.8%	4.07	4.02	+0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	TOR	65	0	68	287	82	32	8	0%	1.0	28.4%	11.2%	17.2%	2.8%	4.05	4.02	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	TOR	64	0	67	283	80	32	8	0%	1.0	28.1%	11.2%	17.0%	2.8%	4.07	4.07	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	TOR	62	0	65	274	77	31	8	0%	1.0	27.9%	11.3%	16.6%	2.9%	4.13	4.16	+0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	TOR	29	0	30	127	36	14	3	0%	1.0	28.6%	11.4%	17.2%	2.8%	4.07	4.02	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	TOR	43	0	45	190	54	21	5	0%	1.0	28.4%	11.2%	17.2%	2.8%	4.05	4.02	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	TOR	50	0	52	220	62	25	6	0%	1.0	28.1%	11.2%	17.0%	2.8%	4.07	4.07	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	TOR	52	0	55	232	65	26	7	0%	1.1	27.9%	11.3%	16.6%	2.9%	4.13	4.16	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		174	0	182	769	217	87	22	0%	1.0	28.2%	11.2%	17.0%	2.8%	4.08	3.70	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	238	96	24	0%	1.1	28.2%	11.2%	17.0%	2.8%	4.08	3.70	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		71	0	94	394	108	40	9	0%	1.3	27.3%	10.1%	17.2%	2.3%	3.64	3.36	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	0	200	838	229	85	20	0%	1.3	27.3%	10.1%	17.2%	2.3%	3.64	3.36	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Javen Coleman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.12	28.8%	12.4%	2.7%	—	4.04	28.4%	17.1%	203	-0.08	—	—	—
Hayden Harris L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	29.1%	11.2%	1.9%	.315	3.36	28.8%	16.7%	143	+0.25	1.82	194	90
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	87
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	86
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.61	24.0%	15.0%	149	+0.93	3.68	206	82
Jeff Belge L 2022 · 3.53 FIP	24	SU	3.53	28.3%	14.4%	1.8%	.299	3.73	22.9%	9.3%	99	+0.20	3.30	175	82
Tony Cingrani L 2015 · 3.60 FIP	26	SU	3.60	25.8%	12.9%	1.9%	.305	3.84	25.4%	15.7%	128	+0.24	1.68	186	82
Nate Lavender L 2023 · 4.10 FIP	23	SU	4.10	29.1%	9.9%	4.0%	.281	2.51	32.6%	25.7%	47	-1.59	2.51	139	81
Ty Damron L 2018 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	24.3%	14.0%	2.6%	.358	4.30	19.7%	10.3%	134	+0.03	3.29	346	80
Jack Leathersich L 2015 · 3.70 FIP	25	SU	3.70	30.6%	13.2%	2.8%	.339	3.74	28.6%	11.9%	76	+0.04	3.16	101	80
Ben Bowden L 2019 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	31.0%	10.9%	2.3%	.294	4.85	25.3%	12.5%	93	+1.74	2.83	391	80
Dario Alvarez L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	26	SU	3.47	26.0%	13.1%	1.7%	.260	3.64	27.7%	17.1%	129	+0.17	3.47	160	80
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	79
Robert Garcia L 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SU	4.35	24.0%	11.4%	3.3%	.342	4.38	22.0%	10.4%	106	+0.03	2.21	452	79
Graeme Stinson L 2022 · 3.56 FIP	24	SU	3.56	23.0%	10.5%	1.9%	.275	4.85	19.5%	3.9%	45	+1.29	3.56	146	79
Chasen Shreve L 2015 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	25.5%	12.4%	3.7%	.267	4.62	26.8%	15.9%	148	+0.06	3.89	470	79
Darien Núñez L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	26.4%	11.0%	1.8%	.377	2.59	34.2%	23.5%	78	-0.68	2.48	122	79
Adam Choplick L 2017 · 3.45 FIP	24	SU	3.45	25.3%	14.9%	1.1%	.260	4.11	19.9%	7.0%	37	+0.66	3.45	152	78
Brendon Little L 2021 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	24.7%	11.4%	2.4%	.333	4.06	19.8%	8.8%	187	+0.30	2.63	503	78
Tanner Scott L 2018 · 3.17 FIP	24	SU	3.17	30.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.369	3.31	28.0%	16.0%	146	+0.14	1.67	694	78
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	28.4%	11.5%	1.09	4.09
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82