Javen Coleman
P
New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Age 24
LHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 91101vR 110
ERA3.97
FIP3.97
K%28.8%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%17.5%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 54 | 223 | 85 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.7% | 12.1% | 16.7% | 1.1% | 3.00 | 2.82 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 54 | 223 | 85 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 38.1% | 10.3% | 27.8% | 1.3% | 3.00 | 1.95 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 20 | 0 | 27 | 113 | 44 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.6% | 6.5% | 22.1% | 3.5% | 2.63 | 3.44 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TOR | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 82 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.8% | 11.3% | 17.5% | 2.7% | 3.97 | 3.97 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TOR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.8% | 11.3% | 17.5% | 2.7% | 3.97 | 3.97 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 95 | 397 | 126 | 38 | 11 | — | — | 31.7% | 9.6% | 22.1% | 2.7% | 3.58 | 3.82 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 28.8% | 11.3% | 17.5% | 2.7% | 3.97 | 3.59 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 82 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.6% | 10.6% | 18.0% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 3.91 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 82 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.4% | 10.5% | 18.0% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 3.92 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 80 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.1% | 10.5% | 17.7% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.97 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 77 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 10.6% | 17.3% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.07 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 36 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.6% | 10.6% | 18.0% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 3.91 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 54 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.4% | 10.5% | 18.0% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 3.92 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 62 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.1% | 10.5% | 17.7% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.97 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 65 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 10.6% | 17.3% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 175 | 0 | 183 | 774 | 219 | 82 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 10.5% | 17.7% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 3.60 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 239 | 89 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.2% | 10.5% | 17.7% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 3.60 | +4.2 | ||
| Career | — | 58 | 0 | 81 | 336 | 96 | 34 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.7% | 10.2% | 18.5% | 1.9% | 2.88 | 3.03 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 143 | 0 | 200 | 826 | 237 | 84 | 16 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.7% | 10.2% | 18.5% | 1.9% | 2.88 | 3.03 | +5.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Javen Coleman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.97 | 28.8% | 11.3% | 2.7% | — | 3.93 | 28.4% | 17.9% | 203 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Hayden Harris L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.23 | 29.1% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.21 | 30.2% | 16.2% | 129 | -0.02 | 1.86 | 180 | 92 |
| Brian Marconi L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .265 | 4.96 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.35 | 3.61 | 101 | 85 |
| Nate Lavender L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 30.9% | 11.5% | 4.0% | .281 | 3.05 | 36.0% | 26.0% | 26 | -1.11 | 3.05 | 117 | 84 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 83 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.14 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .322 | 4.21 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 77 | +1.07 | 2.87 | 186 | 83 |
| Alex Vesia L 2025 · 2.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 2.81 | 29.2% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .293 | 2.80 | 34.2% | 23.4% | 94 | -0.01 | 1.96 | 382 | 81 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 80 |
| Ben Bowden L 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.97 | 31.0% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .294 | 4.78 | 25.3% | 12.5% | 93 | +1.81 | 2.89 | 374 | 80 |
| Kade Bragg L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.40 | 23.3% | 13.0% | 3.0% | .255 | 4.15 | 23.7% | 2.3% | 45 | -0.25 | 4.15 | 112 | 80 |
| Eric Torres L 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.28 | 29.5% | 13.8% | 1.7% | .267 | 5.68 | 21.6% | 1.7% | 21 | +2.40 | 2.73 | 155 | 80 |
| Jeff Belge L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.51 | 28.3% | 14.4% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.84 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 99 | +0.33 | 3.27 | 175 | 80 |
| Andrew Walling L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.10 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .281 | 3.81 | 20.9% | 6.8% | 52 | -0.29 | 3.12 | 161 | 79 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.54 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .275 | 4.75 | 19.5% | 3.9% | 45 | +1.21 | 3.54 | 146 | 79 |
| Jack Leathersich L 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 30.6% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .339 | 3.78 | 28.6% | 11.9% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.30 | 101 | 79 |
| Darien Núñez L 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.59 | 2.50 | 122 | 79 |
| Geoffrey Gilbert L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.52 | 26.4% | 13.1% | 1.8% | .266 | 7.33 | 19.6% | 4.6% | 16 | +3.81 | 3.52 | 101 | 79 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 2.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.84 | 23.8% | 10.1% | 0.9% | .309 | 3.72 | 22.9% | 12.2% | 92 | +0.88 | 2.84 | 206 | 79 |
| Brendon Little L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 24.7% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .333 | 4.14 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 187 | +0.45 | 2.63 | 478 | 78 |
| Tanner Scott L 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.20 | 30.0% | 12.5% | 1.9% | .369 | 3.36 | 28.0% | 16.0% | 146 | +0.16 | 1.67 | 674 | 78 |
| Ty Damron L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 24.3% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .358 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 10.3% | 134 | +0.37 | 3.22 | 346 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 67 | 28.4% | 10.7% | 1.08 | 3.97 |
| Wade Davis ('21) | 6 | 53 | 27.3% | 10.4% | 0.90 | 3.77 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Brad Brach ('21) | 6 | 62 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 0.84 | 3.50 |