Javen Coleman P New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 91101vR 110
ERA3.97
FIP3.97
K%28.8%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%17.5%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP
K: +17.9 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+18KBB: -2.9 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-3BBCONTACT: -11.2 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-11CONTACTSTAM: +11.8 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+12STAMTotal WAR: +1.64 (95 IP)+1.6WAR
0.00.51.00.00.20.20.20.2+$3M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP40
STUF4550
CTRL45
CMD3545
K†6565
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2027
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.7M+$0.0M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.7M+$0.0M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2030Arb-1$0.8M+0.2$0.6M+$0.1M
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $3M +$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202523MIX2 levels38054223852330%1.428.7%12.1%16.7%1.1%3.002.82
202523MIX2 levels38054223852330%1.438.1%10.3%27.8%1.3%3.001.95
▸ 2026 Season
202624AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats2002711344630%1.428.6%6.5%22.1%3.5%2.633.44+0.4
ROS24MLBTOR64067284823280%1.128.8%11.3%17.5%2.7%3.973.97+0.6
ROS24MLBTOR10141000%1.028.8%11.3%17.5%2.7%3.973.97+0.0
2026 TOT24MLBTOR95397126381131.7%9.6%22.1%2.7%3.583.82+1.6
2026 FULL24MLBTOR1621028.8%11.3%17.5%2.7%3.973.59+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202725MLBTOR65068287823080%1.028.6%10.6%18.0%2.7%3.953.91+0.6
202826MLBTOR65068287823080%1.028.4%10.5%18.0%2.8%3.943.92+0.6
202927MLBTOR64067283803080%1.028.1%10.5%17.7%2.8%3.973.97+0.6
203028MLBTOR62065274772980%1.027.9%10.6%17.3%2.9%4.034.07+0.4
202725MLBTOR29030127361330%1.028.6%10.6%18.0%2.7%3.953.91+0.2
202826MLBTOR43045190542050%1.028.4%10.5%18.0%2.8%3.943.92+0.3
202927MLBTOR50052220622360%1.028.1%10.5%17.7%2.8%3.973.97+0.4
203028MLBTOR52055232652570%1.127.9%10.6%17.3%2.9%4.034.07+0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career175018377421982220%1.028.2%10.5%17.7%2.8%3.983.60+3.9
/ 200 IP190020084423989240%1.128.2%10.5%17.7%2.8%3.983.60+4.2
Career58081336963460%1.428.7%10.2%18.5%1.9%2.883.03+1.9
/ 200 IP143020082623784160%1.428.7%10.2%18.5%1.9%2.883.03+5.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Javen Coleman (OGILVIE) 3.97 28.8%11.3%2.7% 3.93 28.4%17.9%203 -0.04
Hayden Harris L 2026 · 3.23 FIP 24 SU 3.23 29.1%11.2%2.1%.315 3.21 30.2%16.2%129 -0.02 1.86 180 92
Brian Marconi L 2026 · 3.61 FIP 24 SU 3.61 25.3%12.3%2.0%.265 4.96 20.3%2.1%57 +1.35 3.61 101 85
Nate Lavender L 2025 · 4.16 FIP 23 SU 4.16 30.9%11.5%4.0%.281 3.05 36.0%26.0%26 -1.11 3.05 117 84
Brandon Hughes L 2027 · 3.62 FIP 25 SU 3.62 27.0%11.1%2.5%.300 4.49 24.4%14.8%149 +0.87 3.62 206 83
Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.14 FIP 24 SU 3.14 25.0%8.2%2.0%.322 4.21 18.3%8.7%77 +1.07 2.87 186 83
Alex Vesia L 2025 · 2.81 FIP 23 SU 2.81 29.2%8.5%2.0%.293 2.80 34.2%23.4%94 -0.01 1.96 382 81
Tony Cingrani L 2028 · 3.61 FIP 26 SU 3.61 25.8%12.9%1.9%.305 3.97 25.4%15.7%128 +0.36 1.79 186 80
Ben Bowden L 2026 · 2.97 FIP 24 SU 2.97 31.0%10.9%2.0%.294 4.78 25.3%12.5%93 +1.81 2.89 374 80
Kade Bragg L 2026 · 4.40 FIP 24 SU 4.40 23.3%13.0%3.0%.255 4.15 23.7%2.3%45 -0.25 4.15 112 80
Eric Torres L 2026 · 3.28 FIP 24 SU 3.28 29.5%13.8%1.7%.267 5.68 21.6%1.7%21 +2.40 2.73 155 80
Jeff Belge L 2026 · 3.51 FIP 24 SU 3.51 28.3%14.4%1.8%.299 3.84 22.9%9.3%99 +0.33 3.27 175 80
Andrew Walling L 2026 · 4.10 FIP 24 SU 4.10 23.4%13.2%2.4%.281 3.81 20.9%6.8%52 -0.29 3.12 161 79
Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 3.54 FIP 24 SU 3.54 23.0%10.5%1.9%.275 4.75 19.5%3.9%45 +1.21 3.54 146 79
Jack Leathersich L 2027 · 3.57 FIP 25 SU 3.57 30.6%13.2%2.5%.339 3.78 28.6%11.9%76 +0.21 3.30 101 79
Darien Núñez L 2027 · 3.18 FIP 25 SU 3.18 26.4%11.0%1.7%.377 2.59 34.2%23.5%78 -0.59 2.50 122 79
Geoffrey Gilbert L 2026 · 3.52 FIP 24 SU 3.52 26.4%13.1%1.8%.266 7.33 19.6%4.6%16 +3.81 3.52 101 79
Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 2.84 FIP 24 SU 2.84 23.8%10.1%0.9%.309 3.72 22.9%12.2%92 +0.88 2.84 206 79
Brendon Little L 2026 · 3.69 FIP 24 SU 3.69 24.7%11.4%2.2%.333 4.14 20.4%8.4%187 +0.45 2.63 478 78
Tanner Scott L 2026 · 3.20 FIP 24 SU 3.20 30.0%12.5%1.9%.369 3.36 28.0%16.0%146 +0.16 1.67 674 78
Ty Damron L 2026 · 4.24 FIP 24 SU 4.24 24.3%14.0%2.6%.358 4.61 19.7%10.3%134 +0.37 3.22 346 78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION56728.4%10.7%1.083.97
Wade Davis ('21)65327.3%10.4%0.903.77
Lucas Sims ('24)64727.6%11.6%1.244.22
Cody Allen ('19)55931.3%10.2%1.193.51
Hansel Robles ('22)75925.3%10.1%1.163.86
José Cisnero ('23)54224.8%11.3%0.943.84
Brad Brach ('21)66225.6%10.5%0.843.50