Brendon Little — OGILVIE

Brendon Little P Buffalo Bisons

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 195 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8391vR 99

ERA3.41

FIP3.46

K%30.2%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%16.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7575

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†6570

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p9041.0%

p9035.1%

xwOBA vs

p700.293

SI (26%)

CU (29%)

SL-0.6 (28%)

CT-0.8 (1%)

FB-3.6 (42%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	22	21	101	454	90	43	8	95%	4.6	14.7%	11.2%	3.5%	2.6%	5.15	4.70	—
2018	21	A RAW	South Bend Cubs	22	21	101	454	90	43	8	95%	4.6	19.8%	9.5%	10.4%	1.8%	5.15	3.62	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	12	55	233	57	26	4	100%	4.6	17.7%	12.6%	5.2%	1.3%	3.58	3.90	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	12	55	233	57	26	4	100%	4.6	24.5%	11.2%	13.3%	1.7%	3.58	3.39	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	42	181	53	19	4	0%	1.6	24.7%	11.4%	13.4%	2.4%	3.24	3.76	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	0	42	181	53	19	4	0%	1.6	29.3%	10.5%	18.8%	2.2%	3.24	3.17	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	51	229	49	26	5	0%	1.4	19.3%	11.8%	7.6%	2.0%	4.76	4.05	+0.3
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	51	229	49	26	5	0%	1.4	21.4%	11.4%	10.0%	2.2%	4.76	3.98	+0.3
2023	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	50	2	73	316	73	38	6	4%	1.5	19.2%	10.8%	8.4%	2.2%	4.05	4.04	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	50	2	73	316	73	38	6	4%	1.5	19.2%	10.8%	8.4%	2.2%	4.05	4.04	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	50	2	73	316	73	38	6	4%	1.5	23.1%	12.0%	11.1%	1.9%	4.05	3.73	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	63	272	61	30	7	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.6%	10.3%	2.6%	3.86	4.09	+0.3
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	63	272	61	30	7	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.6%	10.3%	2.6%	3.86	4.09	+0.3
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	63	272	61	30	7	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.0%	11.4%	2.6%	3.86	4.04	+0.4
2025	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	79	0	68	295	91	41	2	0%	0.9	30.8%	13.9%	16.9%	0.7%	3.03	2.63	+1.6
2025	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	79	0	68	295	91	41	2	0%	0.9	30.8%	13.9%	16.9%	0.7%	3.03	2.63	+1.6
2025	28	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	79	0	68	295	91	41	2	0%	0.9	30.8%	13.9%	16.9%	0.7%	3.03	2.62	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			155	0	139	608	167	75	15	0%	0.9	27.5%	12.3%	15.1%	2.5%	4.13	3.72	+1.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	56	1	57	253	86	40	7	2%	1.0	30.9%	14.9%	16.0%	2.8%	4.45	3.94	+0.4
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	56	1	57	253	86	40	7	2%	1.0	30.9%	14.9%	16.0%	2.8%	4.45	3.94	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	TOR	30	1	32	139	46	24	2	3%	1.1	33.1%	17.3%	15.8%	1.4%	2.53	3.28	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	TOR	26	0	25	114	40	16	5	0%	0.9	35.1%	14.0%	21.1%	4.4%	6.93	4.32	+0.1
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	TOR	26	0	25	114	40	16	5	0%	0.9	35.1%	14.0%	21.1%	4.4%	6.93	4.32	+0.1
ROS	29	MLB MLE	TOR	6	0	6	25	7	3	1	0%	1.0	30.2%	13.7%	16.5%	2.1%	3.41	3.46	+0.1
ROS	29	MLB CTX	TOR	6	0	6	25	8	3	1	0%	1.0	30.2%	13.7%	16.5%	2.1%	3.41	3.46	+0.1
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	63	278	93	43	8	—	—	33.7%	15.6%	18.0%	2.7%	4.35	3.89	+0.5
FULL	29	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	31	129	93	43	8	—	—	72.5%	33.7%	38.9%	5.8%	8.91	4.45	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	TOR	63	0	66	278	85	38	8	0%	1.0	30.6%	13.8%	16.8%	2.7%	4.04	4.15	+0.3
2028	31	MLB MLE	TOR	59	0	62	260	77	37	8	0%	1.0	29.8%	14.2%	15.7%	3.0%	4.24	4.38	+0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	TOR	60	0	63	266	81	37	7	0%	1.1	30.6%	13.8%	16.8%	2.7%	4.04	4.15	+0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	TOR	55	0	58	245	73	35	7	0%	1.1	29.8%	14.2%	15.7%	3.0%	4.24	4.38	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		276	0	266	1144	329	150	30	0%	1.0	28.8%	13.1%	15.7%	2.6%	4.12	3.77	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		207	0	200	859	247	113	23	0%	1.0	28.8%	13.1%	15.7%	2.6%	4.12	3.77	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		347	36	511	2233	484	269	47	10%	1.5	21.7%	12.1%	9.6%	2.1%	4.11	3.95	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	14	200	875	189	105	18	10%	1.5	21.7%	12.1%	9.6%	2.1%	4.11	3.95	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brendon Little (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.81	29.8%	13.4%	2.1%	—	4.26	30.2%	16.2%	127	+0.45	—	—	—
Justin Wilson L 2017 · 3.26 FIP	29	SU	3.26	32.3%	13.7%	2.1%	.271	3.40	27.8%	15.9%	113	+0.14	2.49	420	86
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	76
Jake Diekman L 2016 · 3.23 FIP	29	SU	3.23	26.7%	11.3%	1.7%	.241	3.09	28.6%	15.8%	115	-0.14	2.36	455	76
Zach Phillips L 2016 · 3.01 FIP	29	SU	3.01	27.4%	11.9%	1.3%	.370	3.20	19.2%	10.6%	86	+0.19	2.33	202	74
Ryan Buchter L 2016 · 2.74 FIP	29	SU	2.74	31.6%	11.3%	1.6%	.219	4.30	24.8%	15.3%	150	+1.56	2.37	296	73
Antonio Bastardo L 2015 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	26.8%	10.0%	1.8%	.238	5.27	22.6%	11.3%	88	+2.17	3.10	145	72
Adam Loewen L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SU	3.84	25.1%	15.9%	1.6%	.287	3.63	23.2%	7.3%	98	-0.21	2.96	176	71
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	70
Jesse Biddle L 2021 · 3.35 FIP	29	SU	3.35	30.2%	12.6%	2.2%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	311	69
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	69
Boone Logan L 2015 · 2.96 FIP	30	SU	2.96	26.2%	9.5%	1.6%	.352	3.05	29.7%	20.6%	78	+0.09	2.58	113	68
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	67
Jeff Beliveau L 2016 · 3.19 FIP	29	SU	3.19	26.2%	13.5%	1.1%	.220	4.25	24.7%	12.5%	92	+1.06	3.19	137	67
Chasen Shreve L 2019 · 3.95 FIP	29	SU	3.95	24.4%	11.1%	2.7%	.269	4.59	23.9%	13.0%	108	+0.64	3.89	470	67
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	67
Hunter Cervenka L 2019 · 3.11 FIP	29	SU	3.11	26.6%	13.1%	1.1%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	194	66
Rex Brothers L 2017 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	31.4%	8.6%	2.9%	.333	4.34	29.0%	8.9%	86	+1.24	3.10	205	64
Sam Moll L 2021 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	26.5%	13.5%	3.8%	.310	2.95	25.1%	16.8%	143	-1.67	2.38	507	64
Andrew Chafin L 2019 · 3.11 FIP	29	SU	3.11	30.2%	8.0%	2.8%	.346	2.88	25.7%	18.4%	126	-0.23	2.42	531	63
Aaron Loup L 2017 · 3.04 FIP	29	SU	3.04	24.2%	9.1%	1.5%	.318	3.28	23.6%	17.2%	65	+0.24	2.07	363	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	30.1%	13.8%	1.00	4.00
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Leclerc ('24)	1.7	57	31.6%	12.8%	0.76	3.33
Carl Edwards Jr. ('23)	1.2	50	28.7%	12.4%	0.76	3.05
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15