Brendon Little
P
Buffalo Bisons
Age 29
LHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 42 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8998vR 107
ERA3.76
FIP3.84
K%30.2%
BB%13.7%
K-BB%16.5%
ROS IP42
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SI (39%)
CU (32%)
SL-0.6 (21%)
CT-0.8 (2%)
FB-3.6 (44%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | A | South Bend Cubs | 22 | 21 | 101 | 454 | 90 | 43 | 8 | 95% | 4.6 | 14.7% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.15 | 4.93 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | South Bend Cubs | 22 | 21 | 101 | 454 | 90 | 43 | 8 | 95% | 4.6 | 19.8% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 1.8% | 5.15 | 3.62 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 12 | 55 | 233 | 57 | 26 | 4 | 100% | 4.6 | 17.7% | 12.6% | 5.2% | 1.3% | 3.58 | 3.93 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 12 | 55 | 233 | 57 | 26 | 4 | 100% | 4.6 | 24.5% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 1.7% | 3.58 | 3.39 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 42 | 181 | 53 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 24.7% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 2.3% | 3.24 | 3.69 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 42 | 181 | 53 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 29.3% | 10.5% | 18.8% | 2.2% | 3.24 | 3.17 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 51 | 229 | 49 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.0% | 4.76 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 51 | 229 | 49 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.4% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 2.2% | 4.76 | 3.98 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 50 | 2 | 73 | 316 | 73 | 38 | 6 | 4% | 1.5 | 20.3% | 12.6% | 7.7% | 2.2% | 4.05 | 4.21 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 50 | 2 | 73 | 316 | 73 | 38 | 6 | 4% | 1.5 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 1.9% | 4.05 | 3.73 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 0 | 63 | 272 | 61 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 3.86 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 0 | 63 | 272 | 61 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 2.6% | 3.86 | 4.04 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 79 | 0 | 68 | 295 | 91 | 41 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.8% | 13.9% | 16.9% | 0.7% | 3.03 | 2.63 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 79 | 0 | 68 | 295 | 91 | 41 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.8% | 13.9% | 16.9% | 0.7% | 3.03 | 2.62 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 36 | 1 | 37 | 171 | 53 | 29 | 5 | 3% | 1.0 | 29.1% | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | 5.65 | 3.81 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TOR | 40 | 0 | 42 | 179 | 54 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.2% | 13.7% | 16.5% | 2.1% | 3.76 | 3.84 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TOR | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 54 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.2% | 13.7% | 16.5% | 2.1% | 3.76 | 3.84 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 79 | 350 | 107 | 54 | 9 | — | — | 30.6% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 2.5% | 4.63 | 3.82 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 47 | 199 | 107 | 54 | 9 | — | — | 53.9% | 26.9% | 26.9% | 4.4% | 7.78 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 63 | 0 | 66 | 278 | 80 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.7% | 14.2% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 73 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.0% | 14.5% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 76 | 38 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 14.2% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 68 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.0% | 14.5% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 291 | 0 | 283 | 1216 | 333 | 162 | 32 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.4% | 13.3% | 14.1% | 2.6% | 4.30 | 3.90 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 206 | 0 | 200 | 860 | 236 | 115 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.4% | 13.3% | 14.1% | 2.6% | 4.30 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 327 | 36 | 491 | 2151 | 460 | 270 | 44 | 11% | 1.5 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 4.18 | 4.01 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 133 | 15 | 200 | 877 | 188 | 110 | 18 | 11% | 1.5 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 4.18 | 4.01 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brendon Little (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.84 | 30.2% | 13.7% | 2.1% | — | 4.48 | 28.4% | 14.0% | 127 | +0.64 | — | — | — |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.19 | 32.3% | 13.7% | 2.0% | .271 | 3.37 | 27.8% | 15.9% | 113 | +0.18 | 2.48 | 420 | 79 |
| Mike Dunn L 2027 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 79 |
| Zach Phillips L 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.06 | 27.4% | 11.9% | 1.4% | .370 | 3.20 | 19.2% | 10.6% | 86 | +0.14 | 2.29 | 202 | 77 |
| Adam Loewen L 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 76 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .241 | 3.03 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.22 | 2.33 | 455 | 76 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.04 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.7% | .238 | 5.18 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.14 | 3.04 | 145 | 75 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 74 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 2.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.83 | 31.6% | 11.3% | 1.7% | .219 | 4.23 | 24.8% | 15.3% | 150 | +1.40 | 2.37 | 296 | 72 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.81 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.3% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 204 | 72 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.10 | 26.2% | 13.5% | 0.9% | .220 | 4.33 | 24.7% | 12.5% | 92 | +1.23 | 3.10 | 137 | 71 |
| Boone Logan L 2027 · 2.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.85 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .352 | 3.01 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.16 | 2.44 | 113 | 70 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.98 | 24.4% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.53 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 108 | +0.55 | 3.94 | 470 | 70 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 69 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .330 | 4.16 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 23 | -0.23 | 2.51 | 190 | 68 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.82 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .253 | 4.48 | 23.7% | 12.6% | 46 | -0.34 | 3.80 | 172 | 68 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.20 | 26.6% | 13.1% | 1.3% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 194 | 67 |
| Jesse Biddle L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.35 | 30.2% | 12.6% | 2.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 311 | 67 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .359 | 3.67 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.09 | 3.36 | 113 | 67 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 67 |
| Sam Moll L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.76 | 26.5% | 13.5% | 4.0% | .310 | 2.93 | 25.1% | 16.8% | 143 | -1.83 | 2.39 | 490 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 28.9% | 14.2% | 1.04 | 4.19 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| José Leclerc ('24) | 6 | 57 | 31.6% | 12.8% | 0.76 | 3.33 |