Brendon Little
P
Toronto Blue Jays
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 29
LHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA3.64
FIP3.86
xFIP3.83
SIERA3.73
K%26.4%
BB%12.1%
K-BB%14.3%
IP60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
STUF7575
CTRL3030
CMD4545
K†6565
FB Velo
p3493.4
Whiff%
p9043.5%
K%
p9030.8%
xwOBA vs
p770.286
SI (44%)
CU (39%)
SL-0.6 (6%)
CT-0.8 (3%)
FB-3.6 (52%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | A | South Bend Cubs | 22 | 21 | 101 | 454 | 90 | 43 | 8 | 14.7% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 5.15 | 4.74 | +0.6 |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 12 | 12 | 55 | 233 | 57 | 26 | 4 | 17.7% | 12.6% | 1.3% | 3.58 | 3.90 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 26 | 0 | 42 | 181 | 53 | 19 | 4 | 24.7% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 3.24 | 3.75 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 37 | 0 | 51 | 229 | 49 | 26 | 5 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 2.0% | 4.76 | 4.05 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 50 | 2 | 73 | 316 | 73 | 38 | 6 | 20.3% | 12.6% | 2.1% | 4.05 | 4.16 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 65 | 0 | 63 | 272 | 61 | 30 | 7 | 21.3% | 11.3% | 2.5% | 3.86 | 4.09 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 79 | 0 | 68 | 295 | 91 | 41 | 2 | 30.8% | 13.9% | 0.6% | 3.03 | 2.59 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 9 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 11 | 5 | 3 | — | — | — | 11.74 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TOR | 20 | — | 20 | 85 | 25 | 11 | 2 | 29.4% | 13.1% | 2.2% | 3.55 | 3.84 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 28 | 123 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 29.3% | 13.1% | 3.9% | 5.81 | 2.78 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 69 | 31 | 7 | 28.4% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 4.04 | 4.19 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 66 | 31 | 6 | 27.8% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 62 | 30 | 6 | 27.2% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 57 | 29 | 6 | 26.5% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 49 | — | 49 | 205 | 53 | 28 | 6 | 25.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 49 | 27 | 6 | 25.1% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 44 | 25 | 6 | 24.3% | 14.0% | 3.3% | 4.88 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 300 | 35 | 462 | 2018 | 421 | 244 | 42 | 20.9% | 12.1% | 2.1% | 4.19 | 4.02 | +6.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 130 | 15 | 200 | 874 | 182 | 106 | 18 | 20.9% | 12.1% | 2.1% | 4.19 | 4.02 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brendon Little (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.84 | 29.4% | 13.1% | 2.2% | — | 4.29 | 27.8% | 14.8% | 167 | +0.45 | — | — | — |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.18 | 32.3% | 13.7% | 1.9% | .271 | 3.39 | 27.8% | 15.9% | 113 | +0.21 | 2.43 | 420 | 79 |
| Mike Dunn L 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 79 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.23 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.7% | .241 | 3.08 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 77 |
| Zach Phillips L 2026 · 3.01 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.01 | 27.4% | 11.9% | 1.3% | .370 | 3.20 | 19.2% | 10.6% | 86 | +0.19 | 2.34 | 202 | 76 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 2.98 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.98 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .238 | 5.33 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.35 | 2.98 | 145 | 76 |
| Boone Logan L 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .352 | 3.11 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.06 | 2.64 | 113 | 76 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 75 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 2.67 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.67 | 31.6% | 11.3% | 1.5% | .219 | 4.24 | 24.8% | 15.3% | 150 | +1.57 | 2.37 | 296 | 73 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.19 | 26.2% | 13.5% | 1.1% | .220 | 4.27 | 24.7% | 12.5% | 92 | +1.08 | 3.19 | 137 | 73 |
| Adam Loewen L 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.84 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.5% | .287 | 3.62 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.22 | 2.96 | 176 | 72 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.83 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.4% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 204 | 71 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 176 | 71 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .330 | 4.07 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 23 | -0.37 | 2.50 | 190 | 70 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.95 | 24.4% | 11.1% | 2.7% | .269 | 4.54 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 108 | +0.59 | 3.79 | 470 | 69 |
| Jesse Biddle L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.35 | 30.2% | 12.6% | 2.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 311 | 69 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.3% | .359 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.20 | 3.62 | 113 | 68 |
| Tommy Layne L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 68 |
| Yusei Kikuchi L 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.17 | 24.2% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .306 | 4.43 | 25.7% | 16.5% | 425 | +1.26 | 3.17 | 1,006 | 68 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .318 | 6.63 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +3.01 | 2.70 | 230 | 67 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.