Ben Bowden

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 32 LHP 6'4" / 249 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	AAAATL	27	29	4.03	4.24	27.1%	13.2%	—	K 23.3% · BB 11.9% · FIP 4.57
2025	30	MIX2 levels	42	50	1.97	3.28	23.2%	10.6%	0.8	K 22.0% · BB 9.6% · FIP 2.77
2026	31	MIX2 levels	47	52	5.16	4.13	28.1%	9.4%	0.3	K 25.1% · BB 7.9% · FIP 4.50
2027PROJ	32	MLBOAK	47	49	4.48	4.59	23.7%	9.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ82% MLB	33	MLBOAK	39	41	4.69	4.85	22.8%	10.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ78% MLB	34	MLBOAK	30	31	4.92	5.11	21.9%	10.7%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control36Command42FB velo44

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Ryan Buchter (age 32) · Adam Liberatore (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.48

FIP4.59

K%23.7%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%13.7%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	26	0	24	104	29	14	1	0%	0.9	20.6%	15.9%	4.8%	1.0%	3.04	3.93	—
2016	21	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	26	0	24	104	29	14	1	0%	0.9	27.9%	13.5%	14.4%	1.0%	3.04	2.97	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	52	228	78	20	8	0%	1.1	26.0%	10.2%	15.9%	3.2%	3.98	3.93	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	52	228	78	20	8	0%	1.1	34.2%	8.8%	25.4%	3.5%	3.98	3.25	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	52	215	79	22	5	0%	1.1	31.0%	10.9%	20.1%	2.3%	3.48	3.11	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	52	215	79	22	5	0%	1.1	36.7%	10.2%	26.5%	2.3%	3.48	2.58	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	47	217	59	23	6	0%	0.9	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	3.0%	4.94	4.11	+0.2
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	47	217	59	23	6	0%	0.9	27.2%	10.6%	16.6%	2.8%	4.94	3.71	+0.5
2022	27	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	50	0	58	254	76	34	11	0%	1.2	26.3%	14.1%	12.3%	4.8%	5.46	5.30	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	50	0	58	254	76	34	11	0%	1.2	29.9%	13.4%	16.5%	4.3%	5.46	4.71	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	49	0	52	236	76	32	8	0%	1.1	27.7%	12.2%	15.5%	3.6%	4.64	4.30	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	49	0	52	236	76	32	8	0%	1.1	32.2%	13.6%	18.6%	3.4%	4.64	4.02	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	27	0	29	129	35	17	4	0%	1.1	23.3%	11.9%	11.5%	3.5%	4.03	4.57	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	27	0	29	129	35	17	4	0%	1.1	23.3%	11.9%	11.5%	3.5%	4.03	4.57	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	27	0	29	129	35	17	4	0%	1.1	27.1%	13.2%	14.0%	3.1%	4.03	4.24	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	50	207	48	22	3	0%	1.2	22.0%	9.6%	12.5%	0.6%	1.97	2.77	+1.1
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	50	207	48	22	3	0%	1.2	22.0%	9.6%	12.5%	0.6%	1.97	2.77	+1.1
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	50	207	48	22	3	0%	1.2	23.2%	10.6%	12.6%	1.4%	1.97	3.28	+0.8
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	52	224	63	21	9	0%	1.1	25.1%	7.9%	17.2%	4.6%	5.16	4.50	+0.0
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	52	224	63	21	9	0%	1.1	25.1%	7.9%	17.2%	4.6%	5.16	4.50	+0.0
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	52	224	63	21	9	0%	1.1	28.1%	9.4%	18.8%	4.0%	5.16	4.13	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			51	0	47	232	49	26	8	0%	0.9	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	3.4%	6.65	4.87	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	OAK	47	0	49	207	49	21	7	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.9%	13.7%	3.4%	4.48	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	OAK	47	0	49	209	48	21	8	0%	1.1	22.8%	10.3%	12.5%	3.6%	4.69	4.85	-0.2
2029	34	MLB MLE	OAK	37	0	39	166	36	18	6	0%	1.1	21.9%	10.7%	11.2%	3.9%	4.92	5.11	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	OAK	39	0	41	173	39	18	6	0%	1.1	22.8%	10.3%	12.5%	3.6%	4.69	4.85	-0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	OAK	30	0	31	131	29	14	5	0%	1.0	21.9%	10.7%	11.2%	3.9%	4.92	5.11	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		119	0	119	533	116	58	19	0%	1.0	21.9%	10.8%	11.1%	3.6%	5.53	4.60	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		200	0	200	899	196	98	32	0%	1.0	21.9%	10.8%	11.1%	3.6%	5.53	4.60	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		389	0	416	1814	463	204	57	0%	1.1	25.5%	11.2%	14.3%	3.1%	4.17	4.08	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		187	0	200	871	222	98	27	0%	1.1	25.5%	11.2%	14.3%	3.1%	4.17	4.08	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 51 IPFIP 4.04 → 4.50 (+0.46)K% 29.2% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.17%	—	×0.860	25.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.80%	—	×0.900	7.92%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.58%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.04 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 40 IPFIP 2.62 → 2.77 (+0.14)K% 25.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.62%	—	×0.860	22.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.62%	—	×0.900	9.56%
HR / BF /BF	0.62%	÷1.183	×1.100	0.58%

Result: FIP 2.62 → 2.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 29 IPFIP 4.18 → 4.57 (+0.39)K% 27.1% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.13%	—	×0.860	23.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.18%	—	×0.900	11.86%
HR / BF /BF	3.10%	÷0.968	×1.100	3.52%

Result: FIP 4.18 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 52 IPFIP 3.96 → 4.30 (+0.34)K% 32.2% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.20%	—	×0.860	27.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.56%	—	×0.900	12.20%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷1.028	×1.100	3.63%

Result: FIP 3.96 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASacramento River Cats · 58 IPFIP 4.65 → 5.30 (+0.66)K% 29.9% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.92%	—	×0.880	26.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.39%	—	×1.050	14.06%
HR / BF /BF	4.33%	÷0.989	×1.100	4.82%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 4.65 → 5.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 12 IPFIP 0.78 → 1.27 (+0.49)K% 42.5% → 37.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.50%	—	×0.880	37.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.050	10.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.172	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.78 → 1.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 26 IPFIP 3.88 → 4.21 (+0.32)K% 29.8% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.84%	—	×0.880	26.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.10%	—	×1.050	12.70%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.136	×1.100	3.12%

Result: FIP 3.88 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAHartford Yard Goats · 26 IPFIP 0.78 → 1.62 (+0.84)K% 46.2% → 37.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	46.15%	—	×0.810	37.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.100	8.46%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷1.190	×1.200	1.11%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 138).

Result: FIP 0.78 → 1.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Bowden (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	23.7%	9.9%	3.4%	—	4.97	22.4%	11.9%	89	+0.38	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	76
Ryan Buchter L 2019 · 4.75 FIP	32	SU	4.75	25.3%	10.6%	4.4%	.286	5.24	22.9%	9.7%	32	+0.49	2.37	296	74
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	74
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	73
Hideki Okajima L 2008 · 3.49 FIP	32	SU	3.49	23.3%	8.5%	2.3%	.253	4.09	18.4%	11.4%	107	+0.60	3.05	238	73
Edward Paredes L 2019 · 5.10 FIP	32	SU	5.10	21.5%	7.3%	5.3%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	130	72
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	72
Yorkis Perez L 2000 · 4.85 FIP	32	SU	4.85	18.9%	10.8%	3.6%	.284	4.54	20.8%	10.0%	27	-0.31	3.18	269	72
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	72
Grant Dayton L 2020 · 3.75 FIP	32	SU	3.75	27.4%	8.5%	3.4%	.254	3.84	23.2%	13.8%	62	+0.09	1.63	277	71
James Jones L 2021 · 5.35 FIP	32	SU	5.35	23.0%	11.4%	5.0%	.315	4.25	18.1%	3.1%	36	-1.10	3.58	127	71
Jack Taschner L 2010 · 4.74 FIP	32	SU	4.74	18.1%	11.7%	3.1%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	189	70
Jeremy Bleich L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	32	SW	4.41	20.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	241	69
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	68
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	67
Anthony Gose L 2022 · 4.71 FIP	31	SU	4.71	30.4%	14.1%	4.4%	.234	4.63	23.9%	12.2%	82	-0.08	3.78	233	65
Ryan Sherriff L 2022 · 4.06 FIP	32	SU	4.06	20.7%	12.4%	2.1%	.344	3.78	21.9%	10.9%	24	-0.28	2.96	245	65
Doug Creek L 2001 · 4.48 FIP	32	SU	4.48	23.7%	15.8%	2.5%	.272	4.99	20.3%	7.6%	69	+0.51	4.48	277	65
Marlon Arias L 2017 · 3.73 FIP	32	SU	3.73	17.2%	7.7%	2.0%	.443	4.83	19.8%	8.6%	74	+1.10	3.73	154	63
Valerio De Los Santos L 2005 · 5.03 FIP	32	SU	5.03	15.5%	8.7%	3.9%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	239	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	22.5%	10.7%	1.37	5.13
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*