Nate Lavender
P
Syracuse Mets
Age 26
LHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 26 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99108vR 117
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
K%24.4%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%14.8%
ROS IP26
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Mets | 4 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 48.0% | 8.0% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 1.35 | 0.06 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Mets | 4 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 48.0% | 8.0% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 1.35 | 0.40 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 48 | 199 | 67 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 25.5% | 14.6% | 10.9% | 0.7% | 1.70 | 3.20 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 48 | 199 | 67 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 33.7% | 12.6% | 21.1% | 0.5% | 1.70 | 2.13 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 1 | 54 | 233 | 86 | 24 | 7 | 2% | 1.3 | 30.9% | 11.5% | 19.3% | 4.0% | 2.98 | 4.16 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 1 | 54 | 233 | 86 | 24 | 7 | 2% | 1.3 | 36.9% | 10.3% | 26.6% | 3.0% | 2.98 | 2.93 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 5 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 20% | 1.4 | 26.5% | 20.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.86 | 6.70 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 5 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 20% | 1.4 | 26.5% | 20.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.86 | 7.24 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 29 | 2 | 36 | 147 | 60 | 15 | 3 | 7% | 1.2 | 36.0% | 10.0% | 26.0% | 3.1% | 4.04 | 3.05 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 0 | 26 | 111 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYM | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 62 | 258 | 87 | 26 | 6 | — | — | 33.8% | 9.9% | 23.8% | 2.5% | 4.15 | 3.58 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 3 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 24.4% | 9.5% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 3.93 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 0 | 26 | 109 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 9.6% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 9.6% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 9.6% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 3.96 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 206 | 74 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 9.6% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 106 | 4 | 151 | 638 | 197 | 80 | 17 | 4% | 1.4 | 30.8% | 12.5% | 18.3% | 2.7% | 2.80 | 3.58 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 140 | 5 | 200 | 843 | 260 | 105 | 23 | 4% | 1.4 | 30.8% | 12.5% | 18.3% | 2.7% | 2.80 | 3.58 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nate Lavender (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 3.1% | — | 4.35 | 24.3% | 14.7% | 26 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 84 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .272 | 4.99 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.11 | 3.88 | 256 | 83 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 82 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.53 | 2.79 | 159 | 82 |
| Joey Marciano L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 24.9% | 9.2% | 3.0% | .301 | 4.73 | 20.6% | 4.5% | 102 | +0.95 | 3.78 | 330 | 82 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 81 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.17 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.33 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.16 | 2.35 | 120 | 81 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 80 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.41 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .260 | 3.76 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.35 | 3.41 | 160 | 80 |
| Jeff Malm L 2025 · 3.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.12 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 101 | 80 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 128 | 80 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.43 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.17 | 3.67 | 165 | 79 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 4.1% | .296 | 2.67 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -2.02 | 2.51 | 160 | 79 |
| Justin King L 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.20 | 29.5% | 11.8% | 2.0% | .346 | 4.82 | 21.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +1.62 | 3.20 | 111 | 79 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.07 | 25.0% | 10.4% | 3.2% | .337 | 4.52 | 21.7% | 13.4% | 77 | +0.45 | 3.54 | 364 | 79 |
| Jake Diekman L 2028 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.21 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.19 | 2.33 | 455 | 79 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.62 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .264 | 5.40 | 12.0% | 0.6% | 30 | +1.78 | 3.12 | 142 | 79 |
| Wandy Peralta L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.79 | 17.1% | 6.7% | 127 | +0.83 | 2.69 | 703 | 79 |
| Sean Mellen L 2024 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 78 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 4.1% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.66 | 3.46 | 145 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 24.3% | 9.5% | 1.19 | 4.32 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |