Nate Lavender — OGILVIE

Nate Lavender P Syracuse Mets

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8593vR 101

ERA3.59

FIP3.59

K%27.6%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%18.5%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p5025.3%

p9030.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.255

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	4	0	7	25	12	2	0	0%	1.7	48.0%	8.0%	40.0%	0.0%	1.35	0.06	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	4	0	7	25	12	2	0	0%	1.7	48.0%	8.0%	40.0%	0.0%	1.35	0.40	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	48	199	67	25	1	0%	1.8	25.5%	14.6%	10.9%	0.7%	1.70	3.17	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	0	48	199	67	25	1	0%	1.8	33.7%	12.6%	21.1%	0.5%	1.70	2.13	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	1	54	233	86	24	7	2%	1.3	29.1%	9.9%	19.2%	4.0%	2.98	4.10	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	1	54	233	86	24	7	2%	1.3	29.1%	9.9%	19.2%	4.0%	2.98	4.10	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	1	54	233	86	24	7	2%	1.3	36.9%	10.3%	26.6%	3.0%	2.98	2.93	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	5	1	7	34	9	7	2	20%	1.4	26.5%	20.6%	5.9%	5.9%	3.86	6.70	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	5	1	7	34	9	7	2	20%	1.4	26.5%	20.6%	5.9%	5.9%	3.86	6.70	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	5	1	7	34	9	7	2	20%	1.4	26.5%	20.6%	5.9%	5.9%	3.86	7.24	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	0	14	55	17	3	0	0%	1.0	30.9%	5.5%	25.5%	0.0%	1.88	1.36	+0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	49	2	57	229	87	19	4	4%	1.2	32.6%	6.9%	25.7%	2.4%	3.30	2.51	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	49	2	57	229	87	19	4	4%	1.2	32.6%	6.9%	25.7%	2.4%	3.30	2.51	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A RAW	NYM	6	0	7	29	11	4	0	0%	1.2	37.9%	13.8%	24.1%	0.0%	6.43	1.64	—
2026	26	A+ RAW	NYM	3	0	3	13	6	1	0	0%	1.0	46.2%	7.7%	38.5%	0.0%	3.00	0.18	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	NYM	25	2	33	132	53	11	4	8%	1.3	40.2%	8.3%	31.8%	3.0%	3.27	2.43	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	NYM	15	0	14	55	17	3	0	0%	1.0	30.9%	5.5%	25.5%	0.0%	1.88	1.18	+0.6
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	NYM	15	0	14	55	17	3	0	0%	1.0	30.9%	5.5%	25.5%	0.0%	1.88	1.18	+0.6
ROS	26	MLB MLE	NYM	2	0	2	10	3	1	0	0%	1.2	27.6%	9.1%	18.5%	3.0%	3.59	3.59	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	NYM	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	27.6%	9.1%	18.5%	3.0%	3.59	3.59	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	60	239	90	20	4	—	—	37.6%	8.3%	29.2%	1.8%	3.31	2.55	+1.5
FULL	26	MLB A+C	NYM	—	—	17	71	90	20	4	—	—	127.2%	28.2%	99.0%	6.1%	11.82	-0.72	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	NYM	53	0	55	233	62	21	7	0%	1.0	26.5%	9.0%	17.4%	2.8%	3.93	3.94	+0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	NYM	51	0	54	226	59	21	7	0%	1.1	26.1%	9.2%	16.9%	2.9%	4.02	4.05	+0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	NYM	50	0	53	224	59	20	6	0%	1.1	26.5%	9.0%	17.4%	2.8%	3.93	3.94	+0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	NYM	49	0	51	215	56	20	6	0%	1.0	26.1%	9.2%	16.9%	2.9%	4.02	4.05	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		116	0	120	502	135	44	13	0%	1.0	26.8%	8.7%	18.1%	2.6%	3.72	3.35	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		193	0	200	835	225	73	22	0%	1.0	26.8%	8.7%	18.1%	2.6%	3.72	3.35	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		126	4	173	720	214	77	18	3%	1.4	29.8%	10.7%	19.1%	2.5%	2.71	3.32	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	5	200	832	248	89	21	3%	1.4	29.8%	10.7%	19.1%	2.5%	2.71	3.32	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nate Lavender (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.16	26.1%	9.5%	3.1%	—	3.99	26.3%	17.2%	109	-0.17	—	—	—
Hayden Harris L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	29.1%	11.2%	1.9%	.315	3.36	28.8%	16.7%	143	+0.25	1.82	194	82
Ryan O'Rourke L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	27.4%	12.9%	2.6%	.284	3.05	23.4%	16.7%	53	-0.80	3.05	145	81
Greg Nappo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	22.7%	7.5%	2.2%	.267	5.25	16.5%	5.9%	79	+1.88	3.37	144	80
Jack Leathersich L 2015 · 3.70 FIP	25	SU	3.70	30.6%	13.2%	2.8%	.339	3.74	28.6%	11.9%	76	+0.04	3.16	101	80
Joey Marciano L 2021 · 3.65 FIP	26	SU	3.65	24.9%	9.2%	2.7%	.301	4.64	20.1%	5.2%	102	+0.99	3.65	330	79
Dario Alvarez L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	26	SU	3.47	26.0%	13.1%	1.7%	.260	3.64	27.7%	17.1%	129	+0.17	3.47	160	79
Antonio Bastardo L 2015 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	26.8%	10.0%	1.8%	.238	5.27	22.6%	11.3%	88	+2.17	3.10	145	79
Luis Avilán L 2015 · 3.40 FIP	26	SU	3.40	22.3%	5.9%	2.6%	.276	2.70	26.1%	17.6%	145	-0.70	2.62	256	79
Sean Doolittle L 2015 · 3.05 FIP	28	SU	3.05	26.3%	8.8%	1.9%	.306	2.38	32.5%	28.6%	135	-0.67	1.39	259	78
Peyton Alford L 2023 · 3.69 FIP	25	SU	3.69	28.0%	12.4%	2.5%	.303	4.16	24.1%	12.9%	172	+0.47	3.66	288	78
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	78
Keith Hessler L 2015 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	23.0%	5.6%	2.9%	.275	4.41	18.3%	6.9%	156	+0.93	3.31	228	77
Jeff Malm L 2016 · 3.13 FIP	25	SU	3.13	22.0%	7.2%	1.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	101	77
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	26	SU	3.77	20.5%	6.9%	2.8%	.287	3.21	22.3%	9.6%	66	-0.56	2.81	159	77
Conor Lillis-White L 2018 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	26.8%	11.1%	2.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	1.80	182	76
Giovanni Soto L 2017 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	25.6%	10.5%	3.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	128	76
Tony Cingrani L 2015 · 3.60 FIP	26	SU	3.60	25.8%	12.9%	1.9%	.305	3.84	25.4%	15.7%	128	+0.24	1.68	186	76
PJ Poulin L 2022 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	24.6%	9.3%	3.4%	.325	3.80	22.2%	12.0%	177	-0.24	2.56	378	76
Michael Johnson L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	21.7%	9.5%	3.1%	.272	5.19	13.4%	3.4%	67	+0.99	3.92	256	76
Bobby Poyner L 2019 · 4.45 FIP	26	SU	4.45	24.7%	10.5%	3.8%	.262	6.32	16.0%	12.8%	13	+1.87	2.83	262	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	26.3%	9.2%	1.13	4.01
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33