Nate Lavender
P
St. Lucie Mets
+0.3
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.4%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%14.8%
IP37
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Mets | 4 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 12 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.35 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 26 | 0 | 48 | 199 | 67 | 25 | 1 | 25.5% | 14.6% | 0.7% | 1.70 | 3.18 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 42 | 1 | 54 | 233 | 86 | 24 | 7 | 30.9% | 11.5% | 4.0% | 2.98 | 4.16 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 5 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 9 | 7 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 13.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYM | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 41 | 174 | 43 | 17 | 5 | 25.0% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 5.06 | 3.96 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 24.3% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 37 | 15 | 5 | 24.2% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 24.0% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 33 | 14 | 5 | 23.6% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 23.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 23.0% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 29 | — | 29 | 123 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.82 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 80 | 2 | 119 | 507 | 149 | 67 | 13 | 29.3% | 13.2% | 2.5% | 2.72 | 3.68 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 134 | 3 | 200 | 852 | 250 | 113 | 22 | 29.3% | 13.2% | 2.5% | 2.72 | 3.68 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nate Lavender (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 3.1% | — | 4.35 | 24.2% | 14.6% | 109 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Elvis Araujo L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 83 |
| Joey Marciano L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.66 | 24.9% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .301 | 4.74 | 20.6% | 4.5% | 102 | +1.08 | 3.66 | 330 | 83 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 82 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.49 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 3.65 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.16 | 3.47 | 160 | 82 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.92 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.57 | 3.35 | 147 | 82 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .272 | 5.26 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.00 | 3.88 | 256 | 82 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 81 |
| Jeff Malm L 2025 · 3.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.14 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 101 | 81 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 81 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.47 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.20 | 3.49 | 165 | 81 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.85 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 3.6% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.39 | 3.46 | 145 | 80 |
| Reagan Todd L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.84 | 25.6% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 122 | 80 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.31 | 1.66 | 186 | 80 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 80 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2028 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 80 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.84 | 27.4% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.09 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 53 | -0.75 | 3.09 | 145 | 80 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 128 | 80 |
| Tyler Holton L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.59 | 21.7% | 16.8% | 258 | -0.71 | 2.93 | 367 | 79 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.51 | 24.0% | 11.5% | 1.8% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 206 | 79 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .197 | 4.65 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.46 | 4.19 | 133 | 79 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.