Jack Dreyer
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
+1.1
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.1 · 2026
ERA3.26
FIP3.46
xFIP4.18
SIERA3.66
K%24.4%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%17.3%
IP68
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2026
K†5555
FB+2.0 (49%)
CU (9%)
SL-0.7 (42%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | 12 | 0 | 12 | 47 | 13 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 1.50 | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 42 | 0 | 55 | 227 | 79 | 36 | 1 | 26.8% | 18.2% | 0.6% | 2.30 | 3.47 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Oklahoma City Baseball Club | 46 | 0 | 57 | 227 | 72 | 12 | 4 | 27.3% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 2.20 | 2.71 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 67 | 5 | 76 | 307 | 74 | 19 | 4 | 24.1% | 6.2% | 1.1% | 2.95 | 2.47 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 7 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.84 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 61 | 19 | 6 | 23.2% | 7.1% | 2.2% | 3.11 | 3.62 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 68 | 287 | 68 | 22 | 6 | 23.6% | 7.5% | 2.0% | 3.09 | 3.29 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 68 | 285 | 67 | 22 | 6 | 23.6% | 7.7% | 2.2% | 3.45 | 3.67 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 66 | 279 | 64 | 22 | 6 | 23.1% | 7.9% | 2.3% | 3.67 | 3.79 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 61 | 22 | 6 | 22.6% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 3.82 | 3.91 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 57 | 21 | 6 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 3.94 | 4.02 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 54 | 21 | 6 | 21.4% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.06 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 50 | 20 | 6 | 20.7% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 46 | 20 | 6 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 37 | 18 | 6 | 18.5% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 174 | 5 | 207 | 833 | 217 | 79 | 12 | 26.0% | 9.5% | 1.4% | 2.48 | 2.88 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 5 | 200 | 806 | 210 | 76 | 12 | 26.0% | 9.5% | 1.4% | 2.48 | 2.88 | +5.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Dreyer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.62 | 23.2% | 7.1% | 2.2% | — | 3.79 | 23.1% | 15.3% | 198 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Buddy Boshers L 2027 · 2.83 FIP | 28 | SW | 2.83 | 24.3% | 6.8% | 1.7% | .288 | 3.76 | 22.5% | 14.2% | 161 | +0.93 | 2.83 | 223 | 87 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 85 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.97 | 20.7% | 5.7% | 1.6% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 245 | 84 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 2.92 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.92 | 22.5% | 7.4% | 1.4% | .278 | 4.49 | 23.5% | 13.1% | 78 | +1.57 | 2.92 | 155 | 83 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.42 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.26 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.84 | 3.42 | 154 | 82 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 2.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.79 | 25.7% | 8.3% | 1.5% | .295 | 3.11 | 25.0% | 16.0% | 123 | +0.32 | 2.65 | 256 | 81 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 2.43 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.43 | 27.0% | 8.2% | 1.1% | .297 | 3.25 | 29.1% | 18.1% | 171 | +0.82 | 2.43 | 420 | 81 |
| James Pazos L 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.09 | 21.3% | 6.6% | 1.7% | .291 | 4.56 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 97 | +1.47 | 2.55 | 261 | 80 |
| Dan Jennings L 2027 · 3.06 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.06 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 1.1% | .294 | 3.79 | 17.8% | 8.5% | 188 | +0.73 | 3.06 | 244 | 80 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 2.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.79 | 23.5% | 9.7% | 0.8% | .287 | 5.28 | 16.1% | -11.9% | 11 | +2.49 | 2.79 | 159 | 79 |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.00 | 25.1% | 10.1% | 1.4% | .335 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 0.1% | 47 | +1.29 | 3.00 | 226 | 78 |
| Jason Gurka L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.14 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 1.1% | .303 | 3.27 | 23.4% | 17.6% | 95 | +0.13 | 2.91 | 183 | 78 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2028 · 2.98 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.98 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .238 | 5.33 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.35 | 2.98 | 145 | 78 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .242 | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.0% | 63 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 126 | 77 |
| Colton Turner L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.31 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 1.7% | .235 | 4.33 | 22.4% | 13.2% | 94 | +1.02 | 2.79 | 325 | 77 |
| Jose Alvarez L 2026 · 2.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.80 | 19.9% | 4.3% | 1.5% | .353 | 3.23 | 21.6% | 15.9% | 171 | +0.43 | 2.79 | 375 | 77 |
| Jordan Mills L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 210 | 76 |
| Jeff Malm L 2024 · 3.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.14 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 101 | 76 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .263 | 7.05 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 21 | +3.46 | 3.59 | 364 | 75 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 75 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.1 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $8M | +$7M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.8 | $3M | +$0.6M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $10M | $28M | +$18M | ||