Jack Dreyer
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
Age 27
LHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 30 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6978vR 87
ERA3.02
FIP3.13
K%26.0%
BB%6.0%
K-BB%20.1%
ROS IP30
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p6727.9%
K%
p8628.9%
xwOBA vs
p880.275
FB+2.0 (47%)
CU (14%)
SL-0.7 (39%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | 12 | 0 | 12 | 47 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 6.4% | 21.3% | 4.3% | 1.50 | 3.91 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | 12 | 0 | 12 | 47 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 6.4% | 21.3% | 4.3% | 1.50 | 3.85 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 42 | 0 | 55 | 227 | 79 | 36 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.8% | 18.2% | 8.6% | 0.6% | 2.30 | 3.48 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 42 | 0 | 55 | 227 | 79 | 36 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 34.8% | 15.9% | 18.9% | 0.4% | 2.30 | 2.42 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 57 | 227 | 72 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.3% | 5.6% | 21.7% | 2.4% | 2.20 | 2.85 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 57 | 227 | 72 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.7% | 5.3% | 26.4% | 1.8% | 2.20 | 2.12 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 67 | 5 | 76 | 307 | 74 | 19 | 4 | 7% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 6.2% | 17.9% | 1.4% | 2.95 | 2.61 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 67 | 5 | 76 | 307 | 74 | 19 | 4 | 7% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 6.2% | 17.9% | 1.3% | 2.95 | 2.59 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 38 | 1 | 39 | 152 | 44 | 8 | 6 | 3% | 1.0 | 28.9% | 5.3% | 23.7% | 3.9% | 3.03 | 3.49 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | LAD | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 33 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 6.0% | 20.1% | 2.7% | 3.02 | 3.13 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | LAD | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 33 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 6.0% | 20.1% | 2.6% | 2.98 | 3.09 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 69 | 279 | 77 | 16 | 9 | — | — | 27.6% | 5.6% | 22.0% | 3.4% | 3.02 | 3.33 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 69 | 290 | 77 | 16 | 9 | — | — | 26.6% | 5.4% | 21.2% | 3.2% | 3.01 | 3.30 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 71 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 6.1% | 19.2% | 2.8% | 3.56 | 3.64 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 61 | 0 | 64 | 269 | 67 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.7% | 6.4% | 18.4% | 2.9% | 3.70 | 3.80 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 67 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 6.1% | 19.2% | 2.7% | 3.52 | 3.60 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 64 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 6.4% | 18.4% | 2.8% | 3.66 | 3.76 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 252 | 6 | 269 | 1109 | 282 | 67 | 28 | 2% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 6.1% | 19.4% | 2.5% | 3.26 | 3.09 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 187 | 4 | 200 | 825 | 210 | 50 | 21 | 2% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 6.1% | 19.4% | 2.5% | 3.26 | 3.09 | +5.4 | ||
| Career | — | 205 | 6 | 239 | 960 | 254 | 84 | 19 | 3% | 1.2 | 26.4% | 8.8% | 17.7% | 2.0% | 2.56 | 3.07 | +6.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 172 | 5 | 200 | 803 | 212 | 70 | 16 | 3% | 1.2 | 26.4% | 8.8% | 17.7% | 2.0% | 2.56 | 3.07 | +5.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Dreyer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.53 | 23.7% | 6.3% | 2.3% | — | 3.72 | 25.0% | 18.8% | 130 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Buddy Boshers L 2027 · 2.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.81 | 24.3% | 6.8% | 1.6% | .288 | 3.79 | 22.5% | 14.2% | 161 | +0.98 | 2.81 | 223 | 84 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 2.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.48 | 27.0% | 8.2% | 1.1% | .297 | 3.25 | 29.1% | 18.1% | 171 | +0.77 | 2.48 | 420 | 81 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 2.85 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.85 | 25.7% | 8.3% | 1.6% | .295 | 3.16 | 25.0% | 16.0% | 123 | +0.31 | 2.68 | 256 | 79 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2028 · 2.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.83 | 25.9% | 6.3% | 2.0% | .356 | 3.76 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 101 | +0.93 | 2.79 | 181 | 78 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 2.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.94 | 20.7% | 5.7% | 1.6% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 245 | 78 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.31 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.85 | 3.46 | 154 | 78 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 78 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.80 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 3.4% | .242 | 4.68 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 109 | +0.88 | 3.80 | 172 | 77 |
| Aaron Loup L 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.26 | 24.7% | 3.8% | 3.2% | .323 | 2.89 | 24.7% | 17.1% | 131 | -0.37 | 2.07 | 363 | 77 |
| Travis Wood L 2027 · 3.16 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.16 | 28.2% | 8.1% | 2.6% | .293 | 5.17 | 16.4% | 6.7% | 155 | +2.01 | 3.16 | 256 | 76 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2028 · 3.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.04 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.7% | .238 | 5.18 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.14 | 3.04 | 145 | 76 |
| James Pazos L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.23 | 21.3% | 6.6% | 2.0% | .291 | 4.49 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 97 | +1.26 | 2.55 | 261 | 75 |
| Xavier Cedeño L 2027 · 3.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.03 | 24.9% | 6.3% | 2.2% | .286 | 2.51 | 25.2% | 17.2% | 96 | -0.52 | 2.48 | 142 | 74 |
| Alex Vesia L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.39 | 30.6% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .338 | 3.10 | 33.5% | 23.0% | 158 | -0.29 | 1.96 | 382 | 74 |
| Jeff Malm L 2024 · 3.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.12 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 101 | 74 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 26.6% | 9.7% | 4.0% | .216 | 4.00 | 25.0% | 13.4% | 39 | -0.30 | 2.67 | 176 | 74 |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 2.92 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.92 | 25.1% | 10.1% | 1.2% | .335 | 4.28 | 16.1% | 0.1% | 47 | +1.36 | 2.92 | 226 | 73 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.54 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .263 | 7.16 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 21 | +3.62 | 3.54 | 364 | 73 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 2.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.79 | 23.5% | 9.7% | 0.8% | .287 | 5.28 | 16.1% | -11.9% | 11 | +2.49 | 2.79 | 159 | 73 |
| Jose Alvarez L 2026 · 2.85 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.85 | 19.9% | 4.3% | 1.6% | .353 | 3.38 | 21.6% | 15.9% | 171 | +0.53 | 2.82 | 375 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 66 | 24.6% | 6.3% | 1.02 | 3.56 |
| Joe Blanton ('17) | 3 | 67 | 24.2% | 6.7% | 1.08 | 3.32 |
| Addison Reed ('18) | 4 | 66 | 24.0% | 5.7% | 0.98 | 3.05 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |
| Ryan Madson ('18) | 4 | 60 | 23.6% | 6.1% | 0.79 | 3.19 |
| Richard Rodríguez ('21) | 4 | 56 | 25.0% | 6.3% | 1.21 | 3.00 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |