Jack Dreyer — OGILVIE

Jack Dreyer P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 27 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7280vR 88

ERA2.85

FIP2.94

K%26.5%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%19.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p6828.1%

p8628.9%

xwOBA vs

p810.282

FB+2.0 (47%)

CU (16%)

SL-0.7 (37%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	12	0	12	47	13	3	2	0%	1.0	27.7%	6.4%	21.3%	4.3%	1.50	3.91	—
2022	23	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	12	0	12	47	13	3	2	0%	1.0	27.7%	6.4%	21.3%	4.3%	1.50	3.85	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	42	0	55	227	79	36	1	0%	1.3	26.8%	18.2%	8.6%	0.6%	2.30	3.46	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	42	0	55	227	79	36	1	0%	1.3	26.8%	18.2%	8.6%	0.6%	2.30	3.46	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	42	0	55	227	79	36	1	0%	1.3	34.8%	15.9%	18.9%	0.4%	2.30	2.42	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	57	227	72	12	4	0%	1.2	26.1%	5.0%	21.1%	2.2%	2.20	2.72	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	57	227	72	12	4	0%	1.2	26.1%	5.0%	21.1%	2.2%	2.20	2.72	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	57	227	72	12	4	0%	1.2	31.7%	5.3%	26.4%	1.8%	2.20	2.12	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	67	5	76	307	74	19	4	7%	1.1	24.1%	6.2%	17.9%	1.2%	2.95	2.53	+1.8
2025	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	67	5	76	307	74	19	4	7%	1.1	24.1%	6.2%	17.9%	1.2%	2.95	2.53	+1.8
2025	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	67	5	76	307	74	19	4	7%	1.1	24.1%	6.2%	17.9%	1.3%	2.95	2.59	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			129	6	135	542	142	36	11	5%	1.0	26.2%	6.6%	19.6%	2.0%	2.94	2.85	+2.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	62	1	58	235	68	17	7	2%	0.9	28.9%	7.2%	21.7%	2.9%	2.93	3.14	+1.0
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	62	1	58	235	68	17	7	2%	0.9	28.9%	7.2%	21.7%	2.9%	2.93	3.14	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	LAD	62	1	58	235	68	17	7	2%	0.9	28.9%	7.2%	21.7%	3.0%	2.93	3.21	+0.9
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	LAD	62	1	58	235	68	17	7	2%	0.9	28.9%	7.2%	21.7%	3.0%	2.93	3.21	+0.9
ROS	27	MLB MLE	LAD	6	0	6	26	7	2	1	0%	1.0	26.5%	6.6%	19.9%	2.3%	2.85	2.94	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	LAD	6	0	6	25	7	2	1	0%	1.0	26.5%	6.6%	19.9%	2.4%	2.91	3.00	+0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	65	261	75	19	8	—	—	28.7%	7.2%	21.5%	2.9%	2.92	3.12	+1.2
FULL	27	MLB A+C	LAD	—	—	65	273	75	19	8	—	—	27.5%	6.9%	20.6%	2.8%	2.93	3.18	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	LAD	64	0	67	282	73	19	7	0%	1.0	25.8%	6.8%	19.0%	2.5%	3.49	3.56	+0.8
2028	29	MLB MLE	LAD	61	0	64	269	68	19	7	0%	1.0	25.2%	7.0%	18.2%	2.7%	3.63	3.72	+0.6
2027	28	MLB CTX	LAD	60	0	63	266	69	18	7	0%	1.1	25.8%	6.8%	19.0%	2.7%	3.55	3.62	+0.8
2028	29	MLB CTX	LAD	58	0	61	258	65	18	7	0%	1.1	25.2%	7.0%	18.2%	2.8%	3.69	3.78	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		253	6	265	1091	282	74	26	2%	1.0	25.9%	6.8%	19.1%	2.4%	3.26	3.07	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	5	200	824	213	56	20	2%	1.0	25.9%	6.8%	19.1%	2.4%	3.26	3.07	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		229	6	259	1043	275	92	19	3%	1.1	26.4%	8.8%	17.6%	1.8%	2.57	2.97	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		177	5	200	806	213	71	15	3%	1.1	26.4%	8.8%	17.6%	1.8%	2.57	2.97	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Dreyer (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.48	23.5%	6.2%	2.2%	—	3.64	25.5%	18.6%	130	+0.16	—	—	—
Buddy Boshers L 2016 · 2.80 FIP	28	SU	2.80	24.3%	6.8%	1.6%	.288	3.81	22.5%	14.2%	161	+1.01	2.80	223	84
Justin Wilson L 2015 · 2.49 FIP	27	SU	2.49	27.0%	8.2%	1.1%	.297	3.28	29.1%	18.1%	171	+0.79	2.49	420	84
Luis Avilán L 2016 · 2.80 FIP	27	SU	2.80	25.7%	8.3%	1.5%	.295	3.13	25.0%	16.0%	123	+0.33	2.62	256	81
Fabian Williamson L 2016 · 3.39 FIP	27	SU	3.39	23.8%	9.0%	2.1%	.259	5.26	16.5%	-3.3%	54	+1.87	3.39	154	80
Antonio Bastardo L 2015 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	26.8%	10.0%	1.8%	.238	5.27	22.6%	11.3%	88	+2.17	3.10	145	79
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	78
Marc Rzepczynski L 2015 · 2.73 FIP	29	SU	2.73	25.9%	6.3%	1.8%	.356	3.73	19.4%	7.9%	101	+1.00	2.73	181	78
Ryan Sherriff L 2017 · 2.96 FIP	27	SU	2.96	20.7%	5.7%	1.6%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	245	77
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2016 · 2.81 FIP	27	SU	2.81	23.5%	9.7%	0.9%	.287	5.28	16.1%	-11.9%	11	+2.47	2.81	159	77
Matt Purke L 2017 · 3.01 FIP	27	SU	3.01	25.1%	10.1%	1.4%	.335	4.29	16.1%	0.1%	47	+1.28	3.01	226	77
Zach Phillips L 2015 · 2.33 FIP	28	SU	2.33	24.7%	8.7%	0.4%	.319	2.94	23.8%	13.3%	111	+0.61	2.33	202	77
James Pazos L 2018 · 3.21 FIP	27	SU	3.21	21.3%	6.6%	1.9%	.291	4.60	20.6%	9.4%	97	+1.39	2.55	261	77
Alex Vesia L 2023 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	30.2%	7.1%	3.3%	.338	3.20	32.5%	21.8%	177	-0.05	1.91	401	76
Travis Wood L 2015 · 3.25 FIP	28	SW	3.25	28.2%	8.1%	2.7%	.293	5.07	16.4%	6.7%	155	+1.82	3.25	256	76
Kevin Siegrist L 2016 · 4.46 FIP	27	SU	4.46	26.6%	9.7%	4.3%	.216	3.95	25.0%	13.4%	39	-0.51	2.72	176	75
Jeff Malm L 2016 · 3.13 FIP	25	SU	3.13	22.0%	7.2%	1.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	101	75
Jake Diekman L 2015 · 3.38 FIP	28	SU	3.38	26.5%	11.9%	1.8%	.310	3.25	27.0%	15.3%	106	-0.13	2.36	455	75
Hayden Harris L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	29.1%	11.2%	1.9%	.315	3.36	28.8%	16.7%	143	+0.25	1.82	194	74
Williams Jerez L 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SU	3.58	22.8%	7.1%	2.7%	.263	7.03	18.7%	7.0%	21	+3.45	3.58	364	74
Boone Logan L 2015 · 2.96 FIP	30	SU	2.96	26.2%	9.5%	1.6%	.352	3.05	29.7%	20.6%	78	+0.09	2.58	113	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	24.8%	6.6%	0.96	3.50
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	56	25.0%	6.3%	1.21	3.00
Seunghwan Oh ('18)	1.0	69	27.7%	5.9%	1.00	2.78
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31