Steven Okert

P Houston Astros

Age 36 LHP 6'2" / 202 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	33	MIX2 levels	51	1	41	5.31	4.16	22.5%	8.9%	0.2	K 20.6% · BB 8.1% · FIP 4.44
2025	34	MLBHOU	68	1	72	3.01	2.60	30.4%	6.5%	1.7
2026	35	MLBHOU	68	1	68	2.13	3.06	26.1%	5.4%	1.2
2027PROJ	36	MLBHOU	53	0	56	3.44	3.59	26.1%	6.0%	0.7
2028PROJ	37	MLBHOU	37	0	39	3.77	3.99	25.0%	6.7%	0.3
2029PROJ	38	MLBHOU	22	0	23	4.16	4.42	23.8%	7.4%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

K%71

FB Velo10

CompsRaul Valdes (age 35) · Hisanori Takahashi (age 36) · Heriberto Ruelas (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7886vR 94

ERA3.44

FIP3.59

K%26.1%

BB%6.0%

K-BB%20.0%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.2

Whiff%

p8630.9%

p7126.1%

xwOBA vs

p900.274

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	24	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	52	0	61	270	69	28	7	0%	1.2	22.5%	10.9%	11.6%	2.9%	3.82	4.17	—
2015	24	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	52	0	61	270	69	28	7	0%	1.2	25.6%	10.4%	15.2%	2.6%	3.82	3.70	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	61	269	74	13	4	0%	1.1	24.8%	5.0%	19.8%	1.6%	3.67	2.49	+1.5
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	61	269	74	13	4	0%	1.1	27.5%	4.8%	22.7%	1.5%	3.67	2.17	+1.8
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	52	214	43	16	7	0%	0.8	18.9%	7.6%	11.3%	3.8%	4.47	4.57	-0.0
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	52	214	43	16	7	0%	0.8	20.1%	7.5%	12.6%	3.3%	4.47	4.11	+0.3
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	39	171	51	8	4	0%	0.9	26.3%	5.8%	20.4%	2.3%	3.92	2.88	+0.8
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	39	171	51	8	4	0%	0.9	29.8%	4.7%	25.1%	2.3%	3.92	2.43	+1.0
2019	28	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	50	4	58	257	75	14	14	8%	1.2	25.7%	5.7%	20.0%	5.8%	5.31	4.86	—
2019	28	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	50	4	58	257	75	14	14	8%	1.2	29.2%	5.4%	23.7%	5.4%	5.31	4.38	—
2021	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	56	218	69	17	6	0%	1.1	30.1%	7.9%	22.2%	3.0%	2.41	3.20	+0.9
2021	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	56	218	69	17	6	0%	1.1	31.7%	7.8%	23.9%	2.8%	2.41	2.94	+1.1
2022	31	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	60	0	51	221	63	24	7	0%	0.9	28.5%	10.9%	17.6%	3.3%	2.98	3.90	+0.4
2022	31	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	60	0	51	221	63	24	7	0%	0.9	28.5%	10.9%	17.6%	3.2%	2.98	3.82	+0.4
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	2	64	269	84	25	9	3%	0.9	29.6%	9.7%	19.8%	3.8%	4.06	3.94	+0.5
2023	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	2	64	269	84	25	9	3%	0.9	31.2%	9.3%	21.9%	3.3%	4.06	3.47	+0.8
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	1	41	191	43	17	6	2%	0.8	20.6%	8.1%	12.5%	3.7%	5.31	4.44	+0.1
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	1	41	191	43	17	6	2%	0.8	20.6%	8.1%	12.5%	3.7%	5.31	4.44	+0.1
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	1	41	191	43	17	6	2%	0.8	22.5%	8.9%	13.6%	3.1%	5.31	4.16	+0.2
2025	34	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	68	1	72	276	84	18	6	1%	1.1	30.4%	6.5%	23.9%	2.2%	3.01	2.58	+1.7
2025	34	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	68	1	72	276	84	18	6	1%	1.1	30.4%	6.5%	23.9%	2.2%	3.01	2.58	+1.7
2025	34	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	68	1	72	276	84	18	6	1%	1.1	30.4%	6.5%	23.9%	2.2%	3.01	2.60	+1.7
2026	35	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	68	1	68	261	68	14	7	1%	1.0	26.1%	5.4%	20.7%	2.8%	2.13	3.09	+1.2
2026	35	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	68	1	68	261	68	14	7	1%	1.0	26.1%	5.4%	20.7%	2.8%	2.13	3.09	+1.2
2026	35	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	68	1	68	261	68	14	7	1%	1.0	26.1%	5.4%	20.7%	2.7%	2.13	3.06	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			408	5	369	1510	405	118	46	1%	0.9	26.8%	7.8%	19.0%	3.0%	3.41	3.48	+4.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	HOU	53	0	56	236	62	14	7	0%	1.1	26.1%	6.0%	20.0%	2.8%	3.44	3.59	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	HOU	37	0	39	164	41	11	5	0%	1.1	25.0%	6.7%	18.3%	3.2%	3.77	3.99	+0.3
2029	38	MLB MLE	HOU	22	0	23	98	23	7	4	0%	1.1	23.8%	7.4%	16.4%	3.7%	4.16	4.42	+0.0
2028	37	MLB CTX	HOU	37	0	39	165	41	11	5	0%	1.1	25.0%	6.7%	18.3%	3.2%	3.77	3.99	+0.3
2029	38	MLB CTX	HOU	22	0	23	97	23	7	4	0%	1.0	23.8%	7.4%	16.4%	3.7%	4.16	4.42	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		467	5	431	1773	469	136	55	1%	0.9	26.5%	7.7%	18.8%	3.1%	3.49	3.54	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		217	2	200	822	218	63	26	1%	0.9	26.5%	7.7%	18.8%	3.1%	3.49	3.54	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		634	9	623	2617	678	199	84	1%	1.0	25.9%	7.6%	18.3%	3.2%	3.65	3.63	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		203	3	200	840	218	64	27	1%	1.0	25.9%	7.6%	18.3%	3.2%	3.65	3.63	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 5 IPFIP 2.01 → 2.23 (+0.22)K% 32.3% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.26%	—	×0.860	27.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.90%	—	×0.900	11.61%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.039	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 2.01 → 2.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 6 IPFIP -0.55 → -0.01 (+0.53)K% 50.0% → 43.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	50.00%	—	×0.860	43.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×0.900	4.09%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.031	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP -0.55 → -0.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 20 IPFIP 1.27 → 1.86 (+0.59)K% 38.2% → 33.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.16%	—	×0.880	33.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.26%	—	×1.050	5.53%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷0.886	×1.100	1.63%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 1.27 → 1.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASacramento River Cats · 58 IPFIP 4.32 → 4.86 (+0.54)K% 29.2% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.18%	—	×0.880	25.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.45%	—	×1.050	5.72%
HR / BF /BF	5.45%	÷1.027	×1.100	5.84%

Result: FIP 4.32 → 4.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAASacramento River Cats · 32 IPFIP 2.43 → 2.88 (+0.46)K% 29.9% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.86%	—	×0.880	26.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.050	5.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷0.998	×1.100	2.30%

Result: FIP 2.43 → 2.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAASacramento River Cats · 25 IPFIP 4.46 → 5.27 (+0.81)K% 21.9% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.88%	—	×0.880	19.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.29%	—	×1.050	7.66%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷0.889	×1.100	5.16%

Result: FIP 4.46 → 5.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAASacramento River Cats · 47 IPFIP 1.82 → 2.15 (+0.33)K% 28.4% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.44%	—	×0.880	25.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.74%	—	×1.050	4.98%
HR / BF /BF	0.95%	÷1.082	×1.100	0.96%

Result: FIP 1.82 → 2.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAASacramento River Cats · 61 IPFIP 3.68 → 4.17 (+0.50)K% 25.6% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.56%	—	×0.880	22.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.37%	—	×1.050	10.89%
HR / BF /BF	2.59%	÷0.982	×1.100	2.90%

Result: FIP 3.68 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Steven Okert (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.59	26.1%	6.0%	2.8%	—	4.15	24.5%	17.6%	62	+0.56	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2013 · 4.07 FIP	35	SU	4.07	24.3%	5.3%	4.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	160	70
Hisanori Takahashi L 2011 · 3.64 FIP	36	SU	3.64	18.5%	6.0%	2.4%	.249	4.04	24.5%	18.4%	50	+0.40	3.50	240	62
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	59
Brian Shouse L 2005 · 4.24 FIP	36	SU	4.24	15.0%	6.0%	3.0%	.271	3.35	15.0%	9.6%	137	-0.89	2.32	339	58
Mike Zagurski L 2018 · 3.12 FIP	35	SU	3.12	30.4%	9.3%	2.6%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	55
Juan Pablo Perez L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	36	SU	3.68	26.5%	15.3%	1.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	52
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	47
Tim Byrdak L 2010 · 4.48 FIP	36	SU	4.48	17.1%	11.8%	2.4%	.308	2.92	27.6%	18.1%	68	-1.56	2.85	320	46
Seunghwan Oh R 2018 · 2.83 FIP	36	SU	2.83	28.8%	5.8%	2.6%	.257	5.75	18.2%	11.4%	18	+2.92	1.87	226	40
Tony Barnette R 2018 · 2.61 FIP	34	SU	2.61	25.0%	4.8%	1.8%	.239	—	—	—	—	—	2.61	144	35
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	33
Scott Atchison R 2012 · 2.52 FIP	36	SU	2.52	18.0%	3.0%	1.0%	.256	3.67	15.9%	11.3%	137	+1.15	2.52	340	31
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	31
Matt Bush R 2022 · 3.73 FIP	36	SU	3.73	30.3%	6.6%	4.3%	.224	3.79	26.2%	17.5%	36	+0.06	2.87	249	30
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2003 · 3.30 FIP	35	SU	3.30	19.3%	8.7%	1.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	223	30
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	29
Kazuhisa Makita R 2019 · 2.81 FIP	34	SU	2.81	18.9%	3.7%	1.5%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	132	28
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	28
Peter Moylan R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	36	SU	3.11	18.4%	8.2%	0.9%	.259	3.84	18.2%	9.1%	145	+0.73	2.54	431	28
Akinori Otsuka R 2007 · 2.39 FIP	35	SU	2.39	17.6%	6.1%	0.0%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	232	27

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	49	26.4%	8.0%	1.19	3.48
Ryan Tepera ('23)	1.8	52	24.3%	8.8%	1.13	3.62
Héctor Rondón ('20)	2.2	54	24.2%	7.4%	1.03	3.49
Jason Motte ('17)	2.0	50	23.0%	7.7%	1.11	3.30
Joe Hoerner ('63-'77, 8 WAR*)	2.8	51	23.2%*	7.9%*	1.21*	3.52*
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*