Steven Okert
P
Houston Astros
Age 35
LHP
6'2" / 202 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6473vR 82
ERA3.28
FIP3.25
K%27.0%
BB%7.0%
K-BB%20.0%
ROS IP5
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.4
Whiff%
p8030.0%
K%
p7426.6%
xwOBA vs
p900.251
SL+1.7 (68%)
FB+1.3 (32%)
SI (5%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 52 | 0 | 61 | 270 | 69 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 3.82 | 4.20 | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 52 | 0 | 61 | 270 | 69 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.6% | 10.4% | 15.2% | 2.6% | 3.82 | 3.70 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 61 | 269 | 74 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 5.0% | 19.8% | 1.5% | 3.67 | 2.47 | +1.5 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 61 | 269 | 74 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.5% | 4.8% | 22.7% | 1.5% | 3.67 | 2.17 | +1.7 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 52 | 214 | 43 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 0.8 | 18.9% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 4.2% | 4.47 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 52 | 214 | 43 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 0.8 | 20.1% | 7.5% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 39 | 171 | 51 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.3% | 5.8% | 20.4% | 2.3% | 3.92 | 2.88 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 39 | 171 | 51 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.8% | 4.7% | 25.1% | 2.3% | 3.92 | 2.43 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 50 | 4 | 58 | 257 | 75 | 14 | 14 | 8% | 1.2 | 25.7% | 5.7% | 20.0% | 5.7% | 5.31 | 4.78 | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 50 | 4 | 58 | 257 | 75 | 14 | 14 | 8% | 1.2 | 29.2% | 5.4% | 23.7% | 5.4% | 5.31 | 4.38 | — |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 56 | 218 | 69 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.1% | 7.9% | 22.2% | 3.1% | 2.41 | 3.25 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 56 | 218 | 69 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.7% | 7.8% | 23.9% | 2.8% | 2.41 | 2.94 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 60 | 0 | 51 | 221 | 63 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.5% | 10.9% | 17.6% | 3.4% | 2.98 | 3.91 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 60 | 0 | 51 | 221 | 63 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.5% | 10.9% | 17.6% | 3.2% | 2.98 | 3.82 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 2 | 64 | 269 | 84 | 25 | 9 | 3% | 0.9 | 29.6% | 9.7% | 19.8% | 3.9% | 4.06 | 3.95 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 2 | 64 | 269 | 84 | 25 | 9 | 3% | 0.9 | 31.2% | 9.3% | 21.9% | 3.3% | 4.06 | 3.47 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 1 | 41 | 191 | 43 | 17 | 6 | 2% | 0.8 | 20.6% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 5.31 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 1 | 41 | 191 | 43 | 17 | 6 | 2% | 0.8 | 22.5% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 5.31 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Houston Astros | 68 | 1 | 72 | 276 | 84 | 18 | 6 | 1% | 1.1 | 30.4% | 6.5% | 23.9% | 2.1% | 3.01 | 2.48 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Houston Astros | 68 | 1 | 72 | 276 | 84 | 18 | 6 | 1% | 1.1 | 30.4% | 6.5% | 23.9% | 2.2% | 3.01 | 2.60 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Houston Astros | 46 | 1 | 47 | 177 | 47 | 12 | 5 | 2% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 6.8% | 19.8% | 2.8% | 2.31 | 3.27 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 7.0% | 20.0% | 2.8% | 3.28 | 3.25 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 7.0% | 20.0% | 2.8% | 3.28 | 3.25 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 35 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 52 | 198 | 53 | 13 | 6 | — | — | 26.6% | 6.8% | 19.8% | 2.8% | 2.41 | 3.27 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 35 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 52 | 218 | 53 | 13 | 6 | — | — | 24.2% | 6.2% | 18.0% | 2.6% | 2.41 | 3.25 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 44 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 50 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 7.6% | 18.4% | 3.2% | 3.86 | 3.99 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | HOU | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 42 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 16.7% | 3.6% | 4.18 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | HOU | 33 | 0 | 34 | 145 | 35 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 14.8% | 4.0% | 4.57 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 46 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 7.6% | 18.4% | 3.2% | 3.86 | 3.99 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | HOU | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 35 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 16.7% | 3.6% | 4.18 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | HOU | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 14.8% | 4.0% | 4.57 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 484 | 5 | 451 | 1860 | 494 | 151 | 59 | 1% | 0.9 | 26.5% | 8.1% | 18.4% | 3.2% | 3.65 | 3.64 | +9.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 215 | 2 | 200 | 825 | 219 | 67 | 26 | 1% | 0.9 | 26.5% | 8.1% | 18.4% | 3.2% | 3.65 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 612 | 9 | 602 | 2533 | 657 | 197 | 82 | 1% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 7.8% | 18.2% | 3.2% | 3.72 | 3.66 | +12.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 203 | 3 | 200 | 841 | 218 | 65 | 27 | 1% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 7.8% | 18.2% | 3.2% | 3.72 | 3.66 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Steven Okert (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.61 | 27.4% | 7.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.37 | 25.1% | 16.8% | 120 | +0.76 | — | — | — |
| Brooks Raley L 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.03 | 25.8% | 9.3% | 1.7% | .268 | 2.36 | 24.7% | 17.5% | 61 | -0.67 | 1.74 | 238 | 75 |
| Lucas Luetge L 2026 · 2.70 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.70 | 23.9% | 6.4% | 1.5% | .345 | 3.75 | 23.6% | 15.3% | 96 | +1.05 | 2.52 | 430 | 69 |
| Neal Cotts L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.64 | 3.24 | 156 | 68 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.09 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 166 | 65 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.28 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 1.6% | .255 | 3.47 | 26.7% | 18.4% | 22 | +0.19 | 2.56 | 109 | 64 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.24 | 17.6% | 6.4% | 3.3% | .343 | 4.29 | 18.8% | 12.9% | 81 | +0.05 | 2.35 | 306 | 62 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.22 | 27.3% | 7.0% | 2.8% | .311 | 2.22 | 28.0% | 23.3% | 105 | -1.00 | 1.56 | 219 | 60 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.56 | 17.2% | 6.7% | 1.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 117 | 59 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.24 | 20.9% | 11.3% | 2.7% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 650 | 57 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.34 | 20.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | .192 | 3.47 | 19.6% | 12.0% | 57 | -0.87 | 2.22 | 405 | 56 |
| Zach Duke L 2026 · 2.44 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.44 | 21.2% | 7.1% | 0.4% | .327 | 5.66 | 17.0% | 1.0% | 23 | +3.22 | 2.44 | 215 | 54 |
| David Price L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.96 | 17.8% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .301 | 3.85 | 22.2% | 18.0% | 40 | -0.11 | 2.65 | 922 | 53 |
| Manny Parra L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.34 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 0.9% | .351 | 2.43 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 27 | -0.91 | 2.43 | 114 | 52 |
| Rich Hill L 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.25 | 26.8% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .239 | 3.22 | 29.0% | 21.2% | 379 | -0.03 | 2.10 | 1,030 | 50 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.53 | 17.0% | 9.2% | 3.1% | .418 | 4.50 | 15.7% | 5.5% | 55 | -0.03 | 4.22 | 159 | 50 |
| Adam Loewen L 2024 · 4.13 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.13 | 23.4% | 17.4% | 1.5% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 176 | 48 |
| Brandon Mann L 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 1.0% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 190 | 48 |
| Cesár Ramos L 2024 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.17 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 225 | 48 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.02 | 18.5% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .212 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 299 | 46 |
| Dan Runzler L 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 2.5% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 127 | 43 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 43 | 25.8% | 7.9% | 1.29 | 4.01 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Blake Parker ('21) | 4 | 60 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 1.40 | 3.36 |