Brennan Bernardino

P Colorado Rockies

Age 35 LHP 6'4" / 216 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	32	MIX2 levels	59	3	53	4.44	3.59	24.6%	7.2%	0.6	K 24.8% · BB 7.1% · FIP 3.40
2025	33	MIX2 levels	59	3	56	3.07	2.85	20.9%	10.2%	1.1	K 19.2% · BB 9.4% · FIP 2.92
2026	34	MLBCOL	74	2	64	2.81	3.24	18.4%	5.2%	1.0
2027PROJ	35	MLBCOL	41	0	43	3.89	4.11	17.6%	7.3%	0.2
2028PROJ91% MLB	36	MLBCOL	18	0	19	4.24	4.48	16.5%	7.9%	0.0
2029PROJ82% MLB	37	MLBCOL	8	0	8	4.62	4.88	15.4%	8.6%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs64

K%24

FB Velo10

Form3.26 ERA (proj 3.89) · K 18.5% (proj 17.6%) · BB 3.7% (proj 7.3%) ▲ last 90d · 19 IP through Oct 27

CompsHideki Okajima (age 34) · Brian Shouse (age 35) · Heriberto Ruelas (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9098vR 106

ERA3.89

FIP4.11

K%17.6%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP43

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.6

Whiff%

p2822.2%

p2418.4%

xwOBA vs

p640.298

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	56	253	49	20	0	0%	1.4	14.7%	9.6%	5.1%	0.0%	3.72	3.07	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	56	253	49	20	0	0%	1.4	19.4%	7.9%	11.5%	0.0%	3.72	2.42	—
2016	24	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	50	0	61	265	61	24	5	0%	1.2	17.7%	10.4%	7.3%	2.2%	3.71	4.14	—
2016	24	A+ RAW	Daytona Tortugas	50	0	61	265	61	24	5	0%	1.2	23.0%	9.1%	14.0%	1.9%	3.71	3.35	—
2017	25	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	38	0	40	180	42	19	5	0%	1.1	18.9%	11.6%	7.3%	2.4%	4.46	4.28	—
2017	25	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	38	0	40	180	42	19	5	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.6%	12.8%	2.8%	4.46	4.04	—
2018	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	21	0	20	88	24	6	2	0%	1.0	22.1%	7.5%	14.6%	3.0%	6.30	3.83	—
2018	26	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	21	0	20	88	24	6	2	0%	1.0	27.3%	6.8%	20.5%	2.3%	6.30	2.90	—
2019	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	2	45	189	47	13	4	5%	1.2	25.2%	6.2%	19.1%	2.4%	3.40	3.05	—
2019	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	2	45	189	47	13	4	5%	1.2	24.9%	6.9%	18.0%	2.1%	3.40	3.03	—
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	35	138	35	11	1	0%	1.4	24.6%	8.4%	16.2%	0.8%	2.31	2.51	+0.9
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	35	138	35	11	1	0%	1.4	25.4%	8.0%	17.4%	0.7%	2.31	2.41	+0.9
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	6	62	272	75	21	6	10%	1.0	26.7%	7.6%	19.1%	2.3%	3.94	3.07	+1.1
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	6	62	272	75	21	6	10%	1.0	27.6%	7.7%	19.9%	2.2%	3.94	2.95	+1.2
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	3	53	236	58	17	7	5%	0.9	24.8%	7.1%	17.7%	2.7%	4.44	3.40	+0.7
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	3	53	236	58	17	7	5%	0.9	24.8%	7.1%	17.7%	2.7%	4.44	3.40	+0.7
2024	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	3	53	236	58	17	7	5%	0.9	24.6%	7.2%	17.4%	3.0%	4.44	3.59	+0.6
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	3	56	244	51	25	1	5%	0.9	19.2%	9.4%	9.8%	0.5%	3.07	2.92	+1.1
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	3	56	244	51	25	1	5%	0.9	19.2%	9.4%	9.8%	0.5%	3.07	2.92	+1.1
2025	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	3	56	244	51	25	1	5%	0.9	20.9%	10.2%	10.7%	0.4%	3.07	2.85	+1.1
2026	34	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	74	2	64	267	49	14	5	3%	0.9	18.4%	5.2%	13.1%	1.7%	2.81	3.13	+1.1
2026	34	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	74	2	64	267	49	14	5	3%	0.9	18.4%	5.2%	13.1%	1.7%	2.81	3.13	+1.1
2026	34	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	74	2	64	267	49	14	5	3%	0.9	18.4%	5.2%	13.1%	1.9%	2.81	3.24	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			243	14	220	946	206	69	16	6%	0.9	21.8%	7.3%	14.5%	1.7%	3.28	3.11	+3.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	COL	41	0	43	182	32	13	4	0%	1.0	17.6%	7.3%	10.2%	2.2%	3.89	4.11	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	COL	20	0	21	87	14	7	2	0%	1.0	16.5%	7.9%	8.6%	2.5%	4.24	4.48	+0.0
2029	37	MLB MLE	COL	9	0	9	39	6	3	1	0%	1.0	15.4%	8.6%	6.9%	2.9%	4.62	4.88	-0.0
2028	36	MLB CTX	COL	18	0	19	80	13	6	2	0%	1.1	16.5%	7.9%	8.6%	2.5%	4.24	4.48	+0.0
2029	37	MLB CTX	COL	8	0	8	34	5	3	1	0%	1.0	15.4%	8.6%	6.9%	2.9%	4.62	4.88	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		268	14	246	1057	224	78	19	5%	0.9	21.2%	7.4%	13.8%	1.8%	3.39	3.23	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		218	11	200	859	182	63	15	5%	0.9	21.2%	7.4%	13.8%	1.8%	3.39	3.23	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		463	16	491	2132	446	177	37	3%	1.1	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	1.7%	3.67	3.33	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		189	7	200	869	182	72	15	3%	1.1	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	1.7%	3.67	3.33	+3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 4 IPFIP 2.26 → 2.48 (+0.22)K% 40.0% → 34.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.860	34.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.00%	—	×0.900	18.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.984	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 2.26 → 2.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 11 IPFIP 3.40 → 3.85 (+0.45)K% 30.4% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.36%	—	×0.860	26.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×0.900	6.43%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.008	×1.100	3.90%

Result: FIP 3.40 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAATacoma Rainiers · 33 IPFIP 2.19 → 2.51 (+0.32)K% 28.0% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.00%	—	×0.880	24.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.050	8.40%
HR / BF /BF	0.80%	÷1.144	×1.100	0.77%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 129).

Result: FIP 2.19 → 2.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAToros de Tijuana · 34 IPFIP 2.63 → 3.05 (+0.42)K% 28.7% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.68%	—	×0.880	25.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.050	6.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.21%	÷1.023	×1.100	2.37%

Result: FIP 2.63 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 7 IPFIP 3.35 → 3.86 (+0.51)K% 14.7% → 11.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.71%	—	×0.770	11.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×1.150	13.53%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.850	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 3.35 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 20 IPFIP 2.91 → 3.83 (+0.92)K% 27.3% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.810	22.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.82%	—	×1.100	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷0.909	×1.200	3.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.91 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 40 IPFIP 3.99 → 4.28 (+0.29)K% 23.3% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.33%	—	×0.810	18.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.56%	—	×1.100	11.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.399	×1.200	2.38%

Result: FIP 3.99 → 4.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Daytona Tortugas · 61 IPFIP 3.34 → 4.14 (+0.80)K% 23.0% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.02%	—	×0.770	17.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.06%	—	×1.150	10.42%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.063	×1.250	2.22%

Result: FIP 3.34 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brennan Bernardino (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	17.6%	7.3%	2.2%	—	4.48	16.5%	8.6%	21	+0.37	—	—	—
Hideki Okajima L 2010 · 4.27 FIP	34	SU	4.27	15.5%	7.0%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	238	80
Brian Shouse L 2004 · 3.47 FIP	35	SU	3.47	18.5%	8.2%	1.6%	.250	3.57	14.8%	8.9%	139	+0.10	2.32	339	78
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	77
Clay Rapada L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	34	SU	3.84	14.3%	8.0%	1.7%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	120	74
John Bale L 2009 · 4.31 FIP	35	SU	4.31	17.6%	11.8%	2.2%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	70
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	66
Brooks Raley L 2023 · 3.03 FIP	35	SU	3.03	25.8%	9.3%	1.7%	.268	3.00	23.6%	15.9%	78	-0.03	1.74	294	62
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	61
Hisanori Takahashi L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	22.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.292	3.81	21.1%	15.0%	118	+0.31	3.50	240	61
Tim Byrdak L 2009 · 5.07 FIP	35	SU	5.07	22.2%	13.8%	3.8%	.185	3.48	23.8%	13.5%	107	-1.59	2.85	320	60
Raul Valdes L 2013 · 4.07 FIP	35	SU	4.07	24.3%	5.3%	4.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	160	60
Scott Rice L 2015 · 3.67 FIP	33	SU	3.67	22.9%	17.2%	0.6%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	53
Luke Westphal L 2024 · 5.19 FIP	35	SW	5.19	15.7%	16.4%	2.4%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	45
Mike Zagurski L 2018 · 3.12 FIP	35	SU	3.12	30.4%	9.3%	2.6%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	44
Brendan Donnelly R 2006 · 4.21 FIP	35	SU	4.21	19.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.260	3.19	18.6%	10.1%	60	-1.02	2.23	385	41
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	41
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	39
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	38
Juan Sandoval R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	35	SU	3.24	18.2%	10.2%	0.7%	.288	4.40	16.3%	9.1%	116	+1.16	3.24	225	38
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2003 · 3.30 FIP	35	SU	3.30	19.3%	8.7%	1.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	223	37

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	42	20.6%	8.5%	0.72	3.48
Jose Mijares ('13)	1.3	52	20.2%	9.1%	0.73	3.23
Luis Avilán ('21)	1.8	51	21.4%	9.4%	0.58	3.43
Jared Burton ('14)	1.8	60	19.9%	8.9%	0.77	3.44
Ramon Hernandez ('67-'77, 6 WAR*)	2.2	61	19.7%*	7.3%*	0.77*	3.65*
Mark Dewey ('90-'96, 3 WAR*)	1.2	42	18.7%*	9.6%*	0.80*	3.89*
Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*)	1.7	58	18.5%*	8.2%*	0.88*	3.86*