Riley Eikhoff

P Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 25 RHP 5'10" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#901ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	24	MIX2 levels	16	14	84	3.76	3.79	24.0%	5.0%	—	K 17.9% · BB 5.9% · FIP 5.05
2027PROJ	25	MLBCWS	—	—	0	4.52	4.52	19.2%	6.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCWS	5	5	29	4.50	4.48	20.0%	6.6%	0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCWS	7	7	40	4.50	4.51	20.3%	6.8%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsRyan Watson (age 25) · Jimmy Nelson (age 25) · Hunter Dollander (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%19.2%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%12.8%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	84	338	81	17	13	88%	5.2	17.9%	5.9%	11.9%	4.9%	3.76	5.05	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	84	338	81	17	13	88%	5.2	17.9%	5.9%	11.9%	4.9%	3.76	5.05	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	84	338	81	17	13	88%	5.2	24.0%	5.0%	18.9%	3.8%	3.76	3.79	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.2%	6.3%	12.8%	3.4%	4.52	4.52	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	68	288	58	19	10	100%	6.2	20.0%	6.6%	13.5%	3.3%	4.47	4.45	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	64	272	55	19	9	100%	5.9	20.3%	6.8%	13.4%	3.4%	4.47	4.48	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	10	10	61	257	52	18	9	100%	6.1	20.3%	7.1%	13.2%	3.4%	4.52	4.56	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	9	9	56	238	48	18	9	100%	6.3	20.2%	7.4%	12.8%	3.6%	4.61	4.68	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	CWS	8	8	51	214	42	16	8	100%	6.3	19.8%	7.7%	12.1%	3.8%	4.76	4.86	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	5	5	29	122	25	8	4	100%	5.8	20.0%	6.6%	13.5%	3.4%	4.50	4.48	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	7	7	40	169	34	12	6	100%	5.7	20.3%	6.8%	13.4%	3.4%	4.50	4.51	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	46	194	39	14	7	100%	5.8	20.3%	7.1%	13.2%	3.5%	4.55	4.59	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	46	194	39	14	7	100%	5.8	20.2%	7.4%	12.8%	3.6%	4.64	4.71	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	CWS	7	7	43	182	36	14	7	100%	6.1	19.8%	7.7%	12.1%	3.9%	4.80	4.90	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	34	204	863	174	62	31	100%	6.0	20.1%	7.2%	13.0%	3.6%	4.61	4.27	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	170	61	30	100%	6.0	20.1%	7.2%	13.0%	3.6%	4.61	4.27	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		16	14	84	338	60	20	17	88%	5.2	17.9%	5.9%	11.9%	4.9%	3.76	5.05	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	33	200	808	144	48	40	88%	5.2	17.9%	5.9%	11.9%	4.9%	3.76	5.05	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 66 IPFIP 3.57 → 4.79 (+1.22)K% 24.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.63%	—	×0.740	18.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.60%	—	×1.180	6.60%
HR / BF /BF	3.36%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.37%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.57 → 4.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 18 IPFIP 4.79 → 6.04 (+1.25)K% 21.4% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.43%	—	×0.770	16.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.86%	—	×1.150	3.29%
HR / BF /BF	5.71%	÷1.000	×1.250	7.14%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.79 → 6.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley Eikhoff (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	19.2%	6.3%	3.4%	—	4.49	20.2%	13.4%	193	-0.03	—	—	—
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	87
Jimmy Nelson R 2014 · 3.33 FIP	25	SP	3.33	18.3%	6.1%	1.8%	.332	3.69	21.4%	13.0%	532	+0.36	1.32	720	84
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	83
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	81
Wilmer Font R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	26	SP	3.82	17.0%	4.9%	2.8%	.277	3.84	26.2%	19.1%	263	+0.02	2.76	345	81
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	81
Blake Burkhalter R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	17.3%	6.5%	1.6%	.317	3.55	18.1%	7.9%	133	+0.20	3.25	202	80
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	80
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	79
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	79
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	79
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	79
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	78
Drew McDaniel R 2024 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP	4.24	19.4%	8.4%	3.1%	.307	5.65	18.3%	7.2%	91	+1.41	4.24	230	78
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	78
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	78
Max Duval R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	25	SP	4.53	15.0%	5.9%	3.6%	.317	5.41	16.1%	9.5%	127	+0.88	3.24	189	78
M.D. Johnson R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP	4.27	21.3%	7.1%	3.8%	.269	4.85	15.7%	4.1%	181	+0.58	3.52	395	77
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	77
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	60	20.0%	7.0%	1.34	4.55
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*