Riley Eikhoff — OGILVIE

Riley Eikhoff P Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 24 RHP 5'10" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.3 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 98

ERA4.29

FIP4.29

K%21.5%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%14.1%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	16	14	84	338	81	17	13	88%	5.2	17.9%	5.9%	11.9%	4.9%	3.76	5.05	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	16	14	84	338	81	17	13	88%	5.2	17.9%	5.9%	11.9%	4.9%	3.76	5.05	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	CWS	13	11	66	268	66	15	9	85%	5.1	24.6%	5.6%	19.0%	3.4%	3.84	3.57	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	CWS	3	3	18	70	15	2	4	100%	6.0	21.4%	2.9%	18.6%	5.7%	3.50	4.79	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CWS	14	14	83	350	77	26	11	100%	5.9	21.9%	7.3%	14.6%	3.1%	4.25	4.23	+0.7
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	14	14	83	350	77	26	11	100%	5.9	22.1%	7.3%	14.8%	3.0%	4.23	4.21	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	14	14	82	345	76	26	11	100%	5.8	22.1%	7.4%	14.7%	3.1%	4.24	4.25	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	13	13	79	334	80	23	11	100%	6.1	24.0%	6.8%	17.2%	3.2%	4.13	4.06	+0.8
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	13	13	76	319	76	22	11	100%	5.8	23.8%	7.0%	16.8%	3.3%	4.17	4.19	+0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	CWS	12	12	71	300	70	22	11	100%	5.9	23.4%	7.3%	16.1%	3.5%	4.29	4.37	+0.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	66	280	64	21	11	100%	6.0	23.0%	7.6%	15.4%	3.8%	4.46	4.57	+0.3
2034	32	MLB MLE	CWS	10	10	61	259	58	21	10	100%	6.1	22.6%	8.0%	14.5%	4.0%	4.66	4.80	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	CWS	6	6	35	148	32	11	5	100%	5.8	21.9%	7.3%	14.6%	3.1%	4.28	4.26	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	55	232	51	17	7	100%	6.1	22.1%	7.3%	14.8%	3.1%	4.26	4.24	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	63	266	59	20	8	100%	6.3	22.1%	7.4%	14.7%	3.1%	4.27	4.28	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	67	283	68	19	9	100%	6.1	24.0%	6.8%	17.2%	3.2%	4.16	4.09	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	66	279	66	19	9	100%	6.0	23.8%	7.0%	16.8%	3.4%	4.20	4.22	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	64	270	63	20	10	100%	5.8	23.4%	7.3%	16.1%	3.6%	4.32	4.40	+0.4
2033	31	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	61	258	59	20	10	100%	6.1	23.0%	7.6%	15.4%	3.8%	4.50	4.61	+0.2
2034	32	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	57	241	54	19	10	100%	5.7	22.6%	8.0%	14.5%	4.1%	4.70	4.84	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	78	467	1974	453	145	68	100%	6.0	22.9%	7.3%	15.6%	3.5%	4.33	3.99	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	194	62	29	100%	6.0	22.9%	7.3%	15.6%	3.5%	4.33	3.99	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		16	14	84	338	60	20	17	88%	5.2	17.9%	5.9%	11.9%	4.9%	3.76	5.05	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	33	200	808	144	48	40	88%	5.2	17.9%	5.9%	11.9%	4.9%	3.76	5.05	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley Eikhoff (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	21.5%	7.4%	3.1%	—	4.23	22.1%	14.7%	248	-0.06	—	—	—
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	81
Luc Rennie R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	18.7%	5.5%	2.2%	.352	5.56	14.5%	5.7%	209	+2.11	3.45	265	81
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	78
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	75
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	75
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	75
Chase Whitley R 2015 · 3.53 FIP	26	SP	3.53	18.1%	7.4%	1.8%	.275	3.52	18.5%	12.0%	123	-0.01	3.09	159	75
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	74
Engert Garcia R 2023 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP-	3.13	16.9%	5.5%	1.4%	.270	4.81	14.9%	-5.3%	79	+1.68	3.13	125	73
David Sandlin R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	24.8%	6.5%	4.0%	.360	4.39	21.4%	12.1%	253	+0.34	3.94	312	73
Chris Beck R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	24	SP	3.22	15.6%	6.5%	1.1%	.278	4.93	15.7%	5.2%	217	+1.71	3.22	313	73
Nick Fraze R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	24	SP	3.86	17.3%	3.5%	3.2%	.261	5.14	16.9%	6.5%	157	+1.28	3.86	278	73
Josh Roberson R 2019 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	17.7%	9.4%	1.6%	.298	5.37	21.7%	5.5%	60	+1.70	3.17	229	73
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	72
Wilmer Font R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	26	SP	3.82	17.0%	4.9%	2.8%	.277	3.84	26.2%	19.1%	263	+0.02	2.76	345	72
Blake Adams R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	22	SP	3.40	18.6%	7.3%	1.7%	.333	4.00	17.0%	10.5%	306	+0.60	3.36	389	72
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	72
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.95	17.6%	8.5%	323	+0.34	4.35	416	72
Derek Gordon R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP	4.90	15.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.322	4.62	19.9%	10.6%	76	-0.28	4.62	146	72
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	69	22.8%	7.3%	1.29	4.29
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61