D'Andre Smith
SS Binghamton Rumble Ponies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A+/A/ROKNYM | 175 | .238/.282/.323 | 2 | 9 | 23 | — | .181/.218/.235 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 440 | .275/.346/.409 | 8 | 37 | 88 | — | .256/.306/.368 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA/AANYM | 256 | .252/.341/.432 | 8 | 19 | 80 | — | .227/.297/.371 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBNYM | 3 | .228/.284/.346 | 0 | 0 | 82 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ33% MLB | 27 | MLBNYM | 63 | .227/.285/.346 | 1 | 3 | 82 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ50% MLB | 28 | MLBNYM | 112 | .226/.285/.344 | 2 | 5 | 82 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 49 | 43 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 256 | 333 | 512 | 845 | 256 | 310 | 27 | 6 | 362 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 253 | 224 | 53 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 76 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 237 | 320 | 353 | 673 | 116 | 345 | 30 | 8 | 307 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 55 | 51 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 235 | 291 | 353 | 644 | 118 | 297 | 24 | 5 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 139 | 130 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 246 | 290 | 338 | 628 | 92 | 286 | 17 | 4 | 283 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 18 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 222 | 235 | 458 | 59 | 231 | 22 | 0 | 213 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK | FCL Mets | — | 18 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 235 | 278 | 294 | 572 | 59 | 286 | 17 | 6 | 261 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 353 | 326 | 91 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 69 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 279 | 334 | 411 | 745 | 132 | 336 | 20 | 5 | 334 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 53 | 43 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 302 | 423 | 465 | 888 | 163 | 333 | 13 | 17 | 391 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 34 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 185 | 353 | 296 | 649 | 111 | 263 | 24 | 12 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 127 | 109 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 24 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 294 | 389 | 505 | 893 | 211 | 329 | 19 | 11 | 393 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 129 | 113 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 212 | 294 | 363 | 656 | 150 | 259 | 22 | 8 | 289 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 49 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 205 | 271 | 432 | 703 | 227 | 272 | 37 | 4 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 253 | 233 | 43 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 98 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 185 | 249 | 266 | 515 | 82 | 301 | 39 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 139 | 132 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 182 | 217 | 235 | 452 | 53 | 234 | 23 | 2 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 18 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 222 | 235 | 458 | 59 | 213 | 28 | 0 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 18 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 176 | 222 | 235 | 458 | 59 | 225 | 22 | 6 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 353 | 331 | 86 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 83 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 260 | 306 | 369 | 675 | 109 | 332 | 24 | 4 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 53 | 47 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 234 | 308 | 362 | 669 | 128 | 273 | 17 | 9 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 127 | 113 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 29 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 265 | 341 | 416 | 757 | 150 | 318 | 23 | 8 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 129 | 116 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 190 | 254 | 328 | 582 | 138 | 233 | 27 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 49 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 205 | 271 | 432 | 703 | 227 | 280 | 37 | 4 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | St. Lucie Mets | — | 49 | 43 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 256 | 333 | 512 | 845 | 256 | 310 | 27 | 6 | 362 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 308 | 284 | 52 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 119 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 183 | 247 | 268 | 514 | 85 | 302 | 39 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 308 | 275 | 65 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 89 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 236 | 315 | 353 | 668 | 116 | 335 | 29 | 8 | 304 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 175 | 166 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 42 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 181 | 218 | 235 | 453 | 54 | 234 | 24 | 2 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 175 | 164 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 238 | 282 | 323 | 605 | 85 | 280 | 18 | 3 | 273 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 440 | 407 | 106 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 100 | 12 | 37 | 3 | 260 | 314 | 373 | 688 | 113 | 329 | 23 | 5 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 440 | 396 | 109 | 21 | 4 | 8 | 31 | 84 | 12 | 37 | 3 | 275 | 346 | 409 | 755 | 134 | 331 | 19 | 7 | 339 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 256 | 229 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 64 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 223 | 294 | 362 | 656 | 140 | 278 | 25 | 7 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 256 | 222 | 56 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 53 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 252 | 341 | 432 | 774 | 180 | 293 | 21 | 9 | 341 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 49 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 271 | 422 | 693 | 222 | 272 | 37 | 4 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 308 | 281 | 52 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 119 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 185 | 247 | 270 | 517 | 85 | 301 | 39 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 175 | 165 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 42 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 182 | 218 | 236 | 455 | 55 | 231 | 24 | 2 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 440 | 405 | 106 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 100 | 12 | 37 | 3 | 262 | 314 | 375 | 690 | 114 | 324 | 23 | 5 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 256 | 231 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 64 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 221 | 294 | 359 | 653 | 139 | 275 | 25 | 7 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 175 | 165 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 42 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 182 | 218 | 236 | 455 | 55 | 231 | 24 | 2 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 440 | 405 | 106 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 100 | 12 | 37 | 3 | 262 | 314 | 375 | 690 | 114 | 324 | 23 | 5 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 256 | 231 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 64 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 221 | 294 | 359 | 653 | 139 | 275 | 25 | 7 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | NYM | 2% | 306 | 281 | 66 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 72 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 235 | 291 | 356 | 647 | 121 | 293 | 24 | 5 | 289 | 82 | -7 | +2 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | NYM | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 284 | 346 | 630 | 118 | 283 | 33 | 0 | 282 | 82 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | NYM | 33% | 189 | 173 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 234 | 291 | 356 | 647 | 122 | 292 | 24 | 5 | 290 | 82 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | NYM | 50% | 225 | 206 | 48 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 54 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 233 | 291 | 354 | 645 | 121 | 292 | 24 | 6 | 289 | 82 | -5 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | NYM | 33% | 63 | 59 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 227 | 285 | 346 | 631 | 119 | 283 | 24 | 5 | 283 | 82 | -1 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | NYM | 50% | 112 | 103 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 226 | 285 | 344 | 629 | 118 | 282 | 24 | 5 | 282 | 82 | -2 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 175 | 162 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 42 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 216 | 270 | 321 | 591 | 105 | 271 | 24 | 5 | 282 | 70 | -4 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +4 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 130 | 22 | 4 | 11 | 33 | 156 | 11 | 30 | 4 | 216 | 269 | 321 | 590 | 105 | 271 | 24 | 5 | 282 | 70 | -14 | +4 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1797 | 1652 | 369 | 70 | 12 | 30 | 90 | 479 | 43 | 99 | 14 | 223 | 281 | 335 | 616 | 111 | 294 | 27 | 5 | 271 | 70 | -12 | +4 | -1 | +6 | +12 | 0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 133 | 25 | 4 | 11 | 33 | 173 | 16 | 36 | 5 | 222 | 282 | 333 | 615 | 110 | 293 | 27 | 5 | 271 | 70 | -14 | +4 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 129 PAwOBA .289 → .244 (−45)K% 22.5% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.48% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | 14.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | 6.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | 2.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.85% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .289 → .244; ISO .150 → .126; BABIP .259 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 127 PAwOBA .382 → .331 (−51)K% 18.9% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.90% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.36% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 24.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 5.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 5.10% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .382 → .331; ISO .211 → .161; BABIP .329 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 353 PAwOBA .325 → .295 (−30)K% 19.5% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.55% | ÷1.015 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.10% | ÷0.983 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 3.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.55% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 2.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.68% | ÷0.982 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×1.012 | 25.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.45% | ÷0.941 | ×0.860 | ×1.004 | ×1.012 | 5.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.56% | ÷0.911 | ×0.950 | ×1.004 | ×1.012 | 1.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.72% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.17% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 96, 2B 88, 3B 82, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .325 → .295; ISO .132 → .114; BABIP .336 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 53 PAwOBA .389 → .306 (−83)K% 13.2% → 17.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.21% | ÷1.011 | ×1.310 | — | — | 17.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.98% | ÷1.022 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 9.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.021 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 18.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.989 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 8.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.051 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷1.073 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.25% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 110, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .389 → .306; ISO .163 → .139; BABIP .333 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 139 PAwOBA .277 → .209 (−68)K% 17.3% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.27% | ÷0.988 | ×1.310 | — | — | 22.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.60% | ÷0.973 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 2.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.16% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.64% | ÷1.032 | ×0.870 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 18.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.66% | ÷1.005 | ×0.780 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 4.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.929 | ×0.850 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.89% | ÷1.341 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.24% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 168, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 86, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .277 → .209; ISO .092 → .063; BABIP .286 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ASt. Lucie Mets · 18 PAwOBA .207 → .169 (−38)K% 22.2% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.56% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 4.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷0.957 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 14.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.954 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.990 | 6.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.826 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 91, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .207 → .169; ISO .059 → .046; BABIP .231 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Mets · 18 PAwOBA .254 → .178 (−76)K% 16.7% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.973 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷1.068 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 3.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷0.979 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 17.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.952 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 5.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.974 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 95, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .254 → .178; ISO .059 → .040; BABIP .286 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 253 PAwOBA .299 → .227 (−72)K% 30.0% → 38.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.04% | ÷1.018 | ×1.310 | — | — | 38.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.30% | ÷0.970 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 5.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.77% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 2.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.97% | ÷0.973 | ×0.870 | ×1.024 | ×1.012 | 21.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.14% | ÷1.058 | ×0.780 | ×1.024 | ×1.012 | 7.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.024 | ×1.012 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.03% | ÷1.054 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.71% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 95, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .299 → .227; ISO .116 → .085; BABIP .345 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .