Brayan Mendoza

P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 23 LHP 6'0" / 155 lbs A+ peak 0.8 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	24	19	101	2.32	2.71	26.3%	6.0%	—	K 19.0% · BB 7.6% · FIP 3.59
2025	21	A+MIA	22	4	80	5.17	3.66	20.0%	11.5%	—	K 15.4% · BB 13.2% · FIP 4.41
2026	22	A+MIA	30	12	95	5.89	4.28	24.0%	11.4%	—	K 18.5% · BB 13.1% · FIP 5.36
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIA	10	10	63	5.60	5.60	16.1%	14.2%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBMIA	6	6	38	5.36	5.29	17.5%	12.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBMIA	9	9	59	5.18	5.12	18.2%	12.0%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%

CompsDoug Davis (age 24) · Joe Kemlage (age 23) · Estevan Gonzalez (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123131vR 140

ERA5.60

FIP5.60

K%16.1%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%1.9%

Proj IP63

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers 2	12	12	42	177	37	18	3	100%	3.5	14.2%	12.7%	1.5%	2.0%	4.50	4.63	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers 2	12	12	42	177	37	18	3	100%	3.5	20.9%	10.2%	10.7%	1.7%	4.50	3.55	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	13	8	41	167	44	20	4	62%	3.1	17.9%	15.0%	2.9%	3.3%	3.98	5.29	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	13	8	41	167	44	20	4	62%	3.1	26.3%	12.0%	14.4%	2.4%	3.98	3.69	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	9	52	226	54	24	1	50%	2.9	16.4%	12.6%	3.9%	0.6%	3.61	3.61	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	9	52	226	54	24	1	50%	2.9	23.9%	10.6%	13.3%	0.4%	3.61	2.66	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	101	415	109	25	8	79%	4.2	19.0%	7.6%	11.5%	2.1%	2.32	3.59	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	101	415	109	25	8	79%	4.2	19.0%	7.6%	11.5%	2.1%	2.32	3.59	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	19	101	415	109	25	8	79%	4.2	26.3%	6.0%	20.2%	1.9%	2.32	2.71	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	22	4	80	365	73	42	5	18%	3.6	15.4%	13.2%	2.2%	1.7%	5.17	4.41	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	22	4	80	365	73	42	5	18%	3.6	15.4%	13.2%	2.2%	1.7%	5.17	4.41	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	22	4	80	365	73	42	5	18%	3.6	20.0%	11.5%	8.5%	1.4%	5.17	3.66	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	30	12	95	412	99	47	13	40%	3.2	18.5%	13.1%	5.4%	3.9%	5.89	5.36	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	30	12	95	412	99	47	13	40%	3.2	18.5%	13.1%	5.4%	3.9%	5.89	5.36	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	30	12	95	412	99	47	13	40%	3.2	24.0%	11.4%	12.6%	3.2%	5.89	4.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIA	10	10	63	266	43	38	8	100%	6.3	16.1%	14.2%	1.9%	3.1%	5.60	5.60	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	87	369	64	47	11	100%	6.7	17.5%	12.8%	4.6%	3.0%	5.36	5.29	-0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	88	373	68	45	11	100%	6.8	18.2%	12.0%	6.2%	3.0%	5.18	5.12	-0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	88	373	69	44	11	100%	6.8	18.6%	11.8%	6.9%	3.0%	5.08	5.05	-0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	87	368	69	43	11	100%	6.7	18.7%	11.7%	7.0%	3.1%	5.06	5.07	-0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	84	357	66	42	11	100%	6.5	18.6%	11.9%	6.7%	3.2%	5.11	5.15	-0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	81	341	62	41	11	100%	6.7	18.3%	12.1%	6.2%	3.3%	5.21	5.28	-0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	76	320	64	37	11	100%	6.3	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	3.5%	5.20	5.19	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	6	6	38	160	28	21	5	100%	6.3	17.5%	12.8%	4.6%	3.0%	5.36	5.29	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	59	249	45	30	7	100%	6.6	18.2%	12.0%	6.2%	3.0%	5.18	5.12	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	70	296	55	35	9	100%	6.4	18.6%	11.8%	6.9%	3.0%	5.08	5.05	-0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	74	312	58	37	10	100%	6.7	18.7%	11.7%	7.0%	3.1%	5.06	5.07	-0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	75	317	59	38	10	100%	6.8	18.6%	11.9%	6.7%	3.2%	5.11	5.15	-0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	73	308	56	37	10	100%	6.6	18.3%	12.1%	6.2%	3.3%	5.21	5.28	-0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	70	296	59	34	10	100%	6.4	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	3.5%	5.20	5.19	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	70	459	1939	361	231	61	100%	6.6	18.6%	11.9%	6.7%	3.2%	5.16	4.78	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	157	101	27	100%	6.6	18.6%	11.9%	6.7%	3.2%	5.16	4.78	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		119	64	411	1762	304	210	41	54%	3.5	17.2%	11.9%	5.3%	2.4%	4.25	4.44	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	31	200	858	148	102	20	54%	3.5	17.2%	11.9%	5.3%	2.4%	4.25	4.44	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brayan Mendoza (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.60	16.1%	14.2%	3.1%	—	5.15	18.1%	5.9%	264	-0.45	—	—	—
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	85
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	85
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	83
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	83
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	82
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	80
Jaime Arias L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP-	5.00	15.6%	9.9%	3.6%	.332	5.53	15.8%	4.8%	77	+0.53	4.38	243	80
Tom Windle L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	12.3%	13.0%	1.7%	.304	4.33	18.0%	6.8%	159	-0.30	3.68	330	79
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	79
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	78
Garrett Williams L 2018 · 5.04 FIP	23	SW	5.04	14.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.335	4.33	19.3%	4.5%	162	-0.71	3.37	470	78
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.15	16.0%	4.4%	319	-0.26	3.35	506	78
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	78
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	77
Tim Berry L 2015 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	12.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.346	5.03	14.7%	-0.6%	113	+0.57	4.04	196	76
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	76
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	76
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	75
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	75
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	82	18.3%	12.2%	1.21	5.21
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Todd Wellemeyer ('10)	3.1	77	16.9%	11.2%	1.26	4.83
Jack O'Connor ('81-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.6	64	18.6%*	11.4%*	1.20*	4.96*
Charlie Puleo ('81-'89, 1 WAR*)	3.2	90	18.5%*	11.5%*	1.22*	4.73*
Seth McClung ('09)	2.2	86	16.2%	13.1%	1.28	5.46
Dustin Nippert ('10)	1.3	67	17.6%	11.2%	1.18	5.31