Carlos Colmenarez

SS Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 23 L/R 5'9" / 172 lbs A+ HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	A+TB	280	.208/.338/.320	6	3	42	—	.163/.259/.248
2025	21	ROKTB	27	.320/.370/.480	1	0	51	—	.240/.296/.400
2026	22	AAATB	86	.227/.310/.347	2	4	40	—	.182/.250/.247
2026	22	A+TB	141	.256/.374/.504	8	5	85	—	.211/.302/.415
2027PROJ0% MLB	23	MLBTB	1	.170/.251/.292	0	0	54	-0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBTB	111	.176/.257/.302	3	2	59	-0.2
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBTB	181	.180/.261/.310	5	4	62	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Speed79

BB%48

Chase%44

Max EV36

Z-Con%9

K%2

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsCole Roederer (age 23) · Andy Yerzy (age 24) · Aaron Bracho (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.170 / .251 / .292

PA1

HR0

K%43

BB%7

BABIP281

ISO126

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Rays 1	—	114	97	24	2	1	0	8	30	4	7	6	247	327	289	616	41	338	26	7	278	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	153	126	32	7	3	1	17	41	9	13	2	254	382	381	763	127	365	27	11	349	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	346	283	57	9	1	6	52	132	10	10	11	201	345	304	649	102	349	38	15	307	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Rays	—	24	21	7	2	0	0	3	6	0	0	0	333	417	429	845	95	467	25	12	383	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	368	297	60	7	3	1	54	108	9	15	8	202	340	256	596	54	306	29	15	284	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	INTL	Perth Heat	—	138	117	31	2	1	6	17	48	2	1	1	265	365	453	818	188	391	35	12	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	280	231	48	6	1	6	38	94	8	3	3	208	338	320	658	113	321	34	14	307	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	FCL Rays	—	27	25	8	1	0	1	1	8	1	0	0	320	370	480	850	160	438	30	4	379	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	86	75	17	3	0	2	8	39	1	4	0	227	310	347	656	120	441	45	9	293	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	141	117	30	5	0	8	15	42	7	5	1	256	374	504	878	248	328	30	11	383	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	INTL	Cardenales de Lara	—	17	12	4	1	0	2	3	3	0	0	1	333	467	917	1.383	583	250	18	18	497	222	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	—	114	101	16	1	1	0	5	37	4	7	6	158	227	188	415	30	215	32	4	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	153	132	24	5	2	1	11	59	9	13	2	182	289	273	562	91	303	39	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	346	299	39	6	1	4	36	182	10	10	11	130	246	197	444	67	299	53	10	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	24	22	5	1	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	227	292	273	564	45	367	38	8	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	368	317	48	5	2	1	36	149	9	15	8	151	257	189	446	38	268	40	10	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	280	246	40	4	1	5	24	120	8	3	3	163	259	248	507	85	281	43	9	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	27	25	6	1	0	1	1	12	1	0	0	240	296	400	696	160	336	44	4	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	86	77	14	2	0	1	6	47	1	4	0	182	250	247	497	65	415	55	7	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	141	123	26	4	0	7	9	55	7	5	1	211	302	415	717	203	288	39	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	—	114	101	16	1	1	0	5	37	4	7	6	158	227	188	415	30	235	32	4	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 1	—	114	97	24	2	1	0	8	30	4	7	6	247	327	289	616	41	338	26	7	278	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	153	132	24	5	2	1	11	59	9	13	2	182	289	273	562	91	315	39	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	153	126	32	7	3	1	17	41	9	13	2	254	382	381	763	127	365	27	11	349	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	370	321	44	7	1	4	38	191	10	10	11	137	249	202	452	65	315	52	10	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	370	304	64	11	1	6	55	138	10	10	11	211	350	312	662	102	360	37	15	312	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	506	438	67	8	3	1	50	205	11	16	9	153	257	192	448	39	277	41	10	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	506	414	91	9	4	7	71	156	11	16	9	220	347	312	658	92	327	31	14	305	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	307	272	46	5	1	6	24	132	9	3	3	169	259	261	520	92	299	43	8	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	307	256	56	7	1	7	39	102	9	3	3	219	341	336	677	117	333	33	13	313	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	244	214	43	7	0	9	16	109	8	9	2	201	282	360	641	159	351	45	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	244	204	51	9	0	12	26	84	8	9	2	250	357	471	828	221	358	34	11	359	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	—	114	104	16	1	1	0	5	37	4	7	6	154	227	183	410	29	215	32	4	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	153	132	24	5	2	1	11	59	9	13	2	182	289	273	562	91	303	39	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	370	319	44	7	1	4	38	191	10	10	11	138	249	204	453	66	303	52	10	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	506	440	67	8	3	1	50	205	11	16	9	152	257	191	447	39	268	41	10	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	307	271	46	5	1	6	24	132	9	3	3	170	259	262	521	92	286	43	8	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	244	218	43	7	0	9	16	109	8	9	2	197	282	353	635	156	336	45	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	506	440	67	8	3	1	50	205	11	16	9	152	257	191	447	39	268	41	10	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	307	271	46	5	1	6	24	132	9	3	3	170	259	262	521	92	286	43	8	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	244	218	43	7	0	9	16	109	8	9	2	197	282	353	635	156	336	45	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TB	0%	337	301	51	8	1	9	25	145	8	7	2	169	250	294	544	124	278	43	7	248	54	-18	+1	+0	+4	+7	-0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	TB	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	170	251	292	543	121	281	0	0	248	54	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TB	30%	365	327	57	9	1	10	27	152	8	8	2	175	256	305	560	130	280	42	7	255	59	-18	+1	+0	+4	+8	-0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	TB	44%	408	365	66	11	1	12	31	166	9	9	2	179	260	312	572	133	281	41	8	260	62	-18	+1	+0	+4	+9	-0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	TB	51%	435	390	71	12	1	13	33	173	9	9	2	182	263	317	580	134	281	40	8	263	64	-19	+1	+0	+5	+9	-0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	TB	52%	442	396	73	12	1	13	34	172	9	9	2	185	265	319	584	134	281	39	8	265	65	-18	+1	+0	+5	+10	-0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	TB	53%	443	397	74	13	1	13	34	170	9	7	2	186	266	319	585	133	281	38	8	265	66	-18	+1	-1	+5	+10	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	TB	30%	111	99	17	3	0	3	8	46	3	2	1	176	257	302	559	127	283	41	7	255	59	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	TB	44%	181	161	29	5	0	5	14	74	4	4	1	180	261	310	571	130	284	41	8	260	62	-8	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	TB	51%	221	197	36	6	1	6	17	88	5	5	1	183	264	314	578	131	284	40	8	263	64	-9	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	TB	52%	232	207	39	6	1	7	18	90	5	5	1	186	266	317	583	131	284	39	8	265	65	-10	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	TB	53%	236	211	41	7	1	7	18	91	5	4	1	187	267	317	584	130	284	39	8	265	66	-10	+0	-0	+3	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	981	875	162	27	3	28	75	389	22	20	5	185	266	319	585	134	289	40	8	262	53	-42	+2	-0	+11	+21	-0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	108	18	2	19	50	258	15	13	3	186	269	322	591	136	291	40	8	262	53	-28	+1	-0	+7	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4079	3615	626	97	14	90	324	1691	102	106	44	173	260	282	543	109	288	41	8	246	53	-107	+5	-1	+26	+52	-2.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	99	15	2	14	52	269	16	17	7	172	259	278	537	106	286	41	8	246	53	-29	+1	-0	+7	+14	-0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Lena Blackburne'10-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,086 PA	3.1	2,086	4	54	215*	288*	334*	+13	+11	2.0	2.0
/162	664	1	17	+4.2	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.5	981	28	19	183	261	317	+11	+6	-0.3	-0.1
/162	664	19	13	+7.1	+4.1	-0.2	pk7: 0
#4Bobby Wine'60-'72 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,467 PA	5.2	3,467	30	7	214*	266*	308*	+35	+19	-2.5	-0.7
/162	664	6	1	+6.7	+3.6	-0.5	pk7: 1
#5Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Billy Hunter'53-'58 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,052 PA	3.1	2,052	16	23	213*	254*	312*	+20	+13	-2.7	-2.7
/162	664	5	7	+6.4	+4.3	-0.9	pk7: -3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carlos Colmenarez (OGILVIE)	23	25	35	45	55	168/248/291	123	278	8	6	43%	7%	54	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cole Roederer 2023 · AA	23	43→33	44→45	47→50	40	211/269/329	118	300	12	12	33%	7%	69	-0.9	197/270/310	113	292	12	11	34%	8%	65	-1.2	176/259/283	106	262	11	11	35%	9%	53	-1.3
✕Andy Yerzy 2022 · AA	24	32	50	49→40	42	178/266/325	146	259	19	7	38%	8%	69	-0.9	196/276/333	137	263	16	6	30%	9%	73	-0.6	162/237/266	105	230	13	1	34%	8%	41	-1.1
✕Aaron Bracho 2024 · AA	23	37→40	48→45	44→40	43	195/265/332	137	267	17	4	33%	8%	69	-0.9	203/262/322	119	263	14	6	27%	7%	65	-1.2	185/241/286	101	234	12	5	26%	6%	47	-1.2
✕Kyle McCann 2022 · AA	24	34	43→50	48→40	38	168/245/274	106	297	12	4	44%	8%	49	-2.4	205/277/355	150	324	19	4	40%	8%	78	-0.3	209/282/367	158	320	22	2	39%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Johan Lopez 2023 · AA	23	39	43→45	51→55	40	194/269/303	109	291	11	13	35%	7%	63	-1.3	205/275/304	99	311	8	12	34%	8%	65	-1.2	176/264/251	75	285	3	11	36%	10%	48	-0.5
✕Neyfy Castillo 2024 · AA	23	39→33	46→45	51→55	37	190/259/318	127	319	15	18	42%	7%	63	-1.3	191/250/302	111	320	12	13	41%	6%	55	-1.9	166/225/267	101	282	11	11	43%	6%	36	-2.8
✕Brock Jones 2024 · A	23	32	48→50	47→60	37	170/240/311	141	284	17	13	44%	8%	55	-2.0	166/245/306	140	310	17	26	48%	8%	56	-1.9	147/234/285	138	279	17	34	50%	9%	44	-1.5
✕Juan Zabala 2022 · AA	23	40	43→40	45→50	38	200/256/310	110	299	11	7	36%	6%	59	-1.6	216/277/306	90	297	8	16	28%	7%	66	-1.1	205/266/287	81	283	8	16	29%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Jose Acosta 2023 · A	23	39	45	49→55	37	194/253/316	122	299	13	16	38%	6%	60	-1.6	193/246/301	108	278	10	17	33%	6%	53	-2.1	169/217/263	95	233	9	22	31%	5%	31	-1.0
✕Seth Gray 2023 · AA	25	37	44→40	47→50	37	185/261/292	108	298	13	8	40%	7%	59	-1.7	210/285/316	106	342	11	13	38%	8%	72	-0.7	210/293/305	96	350	10	19	39%	9%	70	-0.5
✕Agustin Ruiz 2023 · AA	23	37	48→50	46→40	41	194/265/333	138	266	17	5	33%	7%	69	-0.9	185/257/315	130	260	15	4	34%	7%	61	-1.5	162/236/289	126	226	15	1	35%	6%	48	-1.5
✕Daniel Cabrera 2022 · AA	23	39→43	45	48→45	38	201/244/328	126	274	13	8	31%	5%	58	-1.7	213/271/311	98	275	8	7	24%	7%	65	-1.2	214/279/299	85	270	6	7	22%	8%	63	-0.9
✕Michel Triana 2023 · A	23	35→27	44→45	49→50	35	178/240/295	117	283	12	9	40%	6%	51	-2.3	178/237/278	100	283	9	9	38%	6%	45	-2.7	102/161/158	56	170	2	6	39%	6%	-13	-1.9
✕Tristan Gray 2019 · A	23	39→36	47→50	42→40	39	199/250/342	143	275	14	6	33%	6%	65	-1.2	205/271/347	142	266	15	4	28%	7%	74	-0.6	197/252/324	127	261	14	3	29%	6%	61	-1.0
✕Jacob Wetzel 2023 · A	23	39→34	43→45	50	47	194/280/301	107	268	12	10	30%	9%	68	-1.0	192/268/302	110	281	9	13	32%	9%	63	-1.4	180/256/297	117	269	7	16	33%	9%	55	-1.0
✕Luis Toribio 2024 · A	23	36→39	47→50	46→40	42	183/258/317	133	286	16	2	40%	9%	63	-1.4	198/269/325	127	326	14	5	40%	8%	68	-1.0	168/244/291	123	295	14	0	45%	8%	49	-0.9
✕Ben Rortvedt 2023 · MLB	25	39	46→45	46→40	39	199/262/323	124	288	15	4	35%	7%	65	-1.2	209/289/320	111	287	12	5	29%	9%	75	-0.5	198/286/289	91	268	9	2	27%	9%	67	-0.5
✕Blake Hunt 2022 · AA	23	36	43→50	49→40	39	181/242/290	109	276	11	4	37%	7%	50	-2.3	203/259/322	119	277	12	4	30%	6%	63	-1.3	215/280/358	143	272	16	1	27%	7%	77	-0.1
✕Randy Florentino 2023 · A	23	37	41→45	47→45	41	184/247/274	90	275	9	6	35%	7%	48	-2.5	197/245/283	86	259	8	6	26%	6%	49	-2.4	182/223/254	73	228	7	4	23%	5%	32	-1.1
✕Ismael Alcantara 2023 · AA	24	38→30	45	50	37	195/253/316	121	280	13	12	34%	6%	60	-1.6	211/268/301	90	312	8	17	33%	6%	61	-1.5	216/273/285	69	324	7	24	33%	6%	57	-1.2

Carlos Colmenarez

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps