Daniel Palencia
P
Chicago Cubs
Age 26
RHP
5'11" / 160 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.8 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION17 act + 53 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9282vR 73
ERA3.32
FIP3.12
K%29.8%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%20.7%
ROS IP53
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9099.4
Whiff%
p7729.6%
K%
p7526.8%
xwOBA vs
p620.300
FB+2.7 (69%)
SI (2%)
SL-0.9 (25%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 13 | 13 | 41 | 180 | 52 | 24 | 5 | 100% | 3.2 | 21.4% | 15.7% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 4.79 | 5.36 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 13 | 13 | 41 | 180 | 52 | 24 | 5 | 100% | 3.2 | 28.9% | 13.3% | 15.6% | 2.8% | 4.79 | 3.90 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 21 | 20 | 75 | 315 | 98 | 35 | 7 | 95% | 3.6 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 3.94 | 4.44 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 21 | 20 | 75 | 315 | 98 | 35 | 7 | 95% | 3.6 | 31.1% | 11.1% | 20.0% | 2.2% | 3.94 | 3.10 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 5 | 57 | 251 | 69 | 30 | 7 | 11% | 1.3 | 25.3% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 5.65 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 5 | 57 | 251 | 69 | 30 | 7 | 11% | 1.3 | 27.5% | 12.0% | 15.5% | 2.8% | 5.65 | 3.85 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 1 | 54 | 241 | 84 | 34 | 3 | 2% | 1.2 | 31.5% | 14.6% | 16.9% | 1.2% | 5.20 | 2.94 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 1 | 54 | 241 | 84 | 34 | 3 | 2% | 1.2 | 34.9% | 14.1% | 20.7% | 1.2% | 5.20 | 2.60 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 57 | 236 | 70 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.4% | 7.0% | 21.4% | 2.3% | 2.83 | 2.83 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 57 | 236 | 70 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.7% | 7.2% | 22.5% | 2.1% | 2.83 | 2.68 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 20 | 0 | 17 | 74 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.8% | 7.0% | 19.7% | 2.8% | 2.60 | 3.28 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CHC | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 67 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.8% | 9.1% | 20.7% | 2.5% | 3.32 | 3.12 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CHC | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 67 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.8% | 9.1% | 20.7% | 2.5% | 3.33 | 3.13 | +0.9 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 71 | 299 | 87 | 25 | 8 | — | — | 29.1% | 8.5% | 20.6% | 2.6% | 3.14 | 3.16 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 70 | 295 | 87 | 25 | 8 | — | — | 29.4% | 8.6% | 20.8% | 2.6% | 3.18 | 3.14 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 71 | 0 | 75 | 317 | 95 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.0% | 9.1% | 20.9% | 2.6% | 3.58 | 3.51 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 69 | 0 | 73 | 307 | 92 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.9% | 9.3% | 20.6% | 2.7% | 3.59 | 3.60 | +1.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 68 | 0 | 71 | 300 | 90 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.0% | 9.1% | 20.9% | 2.6% | 3.60 | 3.53 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 87 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.9% | 9.3% | 20.6% | 2.7% | 3.61 | 3.62 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 294 | 0 | 306 | 1292 | 374 | 121 | 31 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.9% | 9.4% | 19.5% | 2.4% | 3.59 | 3.18 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 192 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 244 | 79 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.9% | 9.4% | 19.5% | 2.4% | 3.59 | 3.18 | +5.2 | ||
| Career | — | 202 | 39 | 302 | 1297 | 340 | 157 | 34 | 19% | 1.5 | 26.2% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 2.6% | 4.32 | 3.87 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 134 | 26 | 200 | 858 | 225 | 104 | 23 | 19% | 1.5 | 26.2% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 2.6% | 4.32 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daniel Palencia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.44 | 30.8% | 9.5% | 2.5% | — | 3.55 | 30.0% | 20.7% | 148 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Grant Taylor R 2024 · 2.44 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.44 | 33.8% | 8.6% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.63 | 128 | 73 |
| Zach McAllister R 2027 · 2.82 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.82 | 28.1% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.91 | 23.5% | 16.0% | 159 | +1.09 | 2.82 | 363 | 73 |
| Ty Buttrey R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.22 | 27.2% | 7.4% | 2.7% | .314 | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.2% | 63 | +1.17 | 2.47 | 522 | 72 |
| Lou Trivino R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.47 | 27.4% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .247 | 3.83 | 22.4% | 11.8% | 157 | +0.36 | 2.39 | 579 | 71 |
| Kyle Keller R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.66 | 28.7% | 9.4% | 3.3% | .293 | 4.69 | 28.0% | 17.8% | 52 | +1.03 | 2.67 | 296 | 71 |
| Nick Anderson R 2026 · 2.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.74 | 25.2% | 7.7% | 1.5% | .276 | 2.63 | 32.7% | 26.6% | 179 | -0.11 | 0.97 | 411 | 70 |
| Ben Heller R 2025 · 2.65 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.65 | 32.4% | 9.4% | 2.0% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 246 | 70 |
| Tucker Healy R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.02 | 30.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.85 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 67 | +1.83 | 2.85 | 174 | 70 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .265 | 4.48 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.02 | 3.46 | 173 | 70 |
| Pierce Johnson R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.20 | 27.8% | 11.7% | 1.8% | .374 | 3.75 | 25.0% | 13.7% | 86 | +0.55 | 2.83 | 577 | 69 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.27 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.07 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 63 | -0.20 | 2.74 | 178 | 68 |
| Alex Lange R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.05 | 30.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .273 | 4.00 | 26.4% | 10.5% | 108 | +0.95 | 3.05 | 489 | 68 |
| Jon Edwards R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.54 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.7% | .264 | 2.30 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.24 | 2.30 | 132 | 68 |
| Trey Wingenter R 2025 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 33.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 293 | 68 |
| Ryne Stanek R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.09 | 30.4% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .311 | 3.86 | 28.9% | 18.4% | 143 | +0.77 | 2.92 | 745 | 68 |
| Dovydas Neverauskas R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.39 | 26.7% | 9.7% | 4.2% | .352 | 5.46 | 25.8% | 14.6% | 19 | +1.07 | 2.76 | 353 | 68 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 68 |
| Matt Svanson R 2026 · 2.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.75 | 26.3% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .263 | 4.06 | 21.6% | 11.3% | 40 | +1.31 | 2.16 | 334 | 67 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.30 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .242 | 4.27 | 29.9% | 16.5% | 101 | +0.97 | 3.30 | 323 | 67 |
| Justin Miller R 2028 · 2.54 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.54 | 27.6% | 8.0% | 1.4% | .248 | 4.07 | 22.1% | 14.7% | 153 | +1.53 | 2.54 | 279 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 73 | 30.2% | 9.3% | 0.99 | 3.60 |
| Keone Kela ('19) | 5 | 43 | 30.1% | 9.4% | 0.92 | 3.23 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |
| Diego Castillo ('22) | 5 | 52 | 28.1% | 8.9% | 1.07 | 3.12 |
| Brad Peacock ('19) | 4 | 80 | 28.7% | 9.2% | 1.18 | 3.48 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Pedro Strop ('19) | 5 | 55 | 27.7% | 9.9% | 0.75 | 3.05 |