Daniel Palencia — OGILVIE

Daniel Palencia P Chicago Cubs

+0.7 WAR

Age 26 RHP 5'11" / 160 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.6 · 2026

ERA3.82

FIP3.76

xFIP4.00

SIERA3.55

K%27.3%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%17.8%

IP39

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2026

K†7070

FB Velo

p9099.6

Whiff%

p6427.5%

p8428.4%

xwOBA vs

p810.282

FB+2.7 (72%)

SL-0.9 (14%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	13	13	41	180	52	24	5	21.4%	15.7%	3.7%	4.79	5.31	-0.2
2022	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	21	20	75	315	98	35	7	24.0%	12.8%	3.0%	3.94	4.34	+0.6
2023	23	MLB	Chicago Cubs	45	5	57	251	69	30	7	25.3%	12.5%	3.0%	5.65	4.17	+0.5
2024	24	MLB	Chicago Cubs	43	1	54	241	84	34	3	31.5%	14.6%	1.3%	5.20	2.98	+1.2
2025	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	60	0	57	236	70	17	5	28.4%	7.0%	2.4%	2.83	2.91	+1.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	5	0	5	19	5	2	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
ROS	26	MLB	CHC	34	—	34	143	43	14	4	30.1%	9.5%	2.5%	3.80	3.53	+0.5
2026 Total	26	MLB	CHC	—	—	39	162	48	16	4	29.7%	9.6%	2.2%	3.31	3.08	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	27	MLB	CHC	38	—	38	163	49	16	4	30.1%	9.6%	2.5%	3.64	3.54	+0.6
2028	28	MLB	CHC	38	—	38	160	48	15	4	30.1%	9.6%	2.6%	3.60	3.57	+0.6
2029	29	MLB	CHC	37	—	37	156	46	15	4	29.6%	9.7%	2.6%	3.62	3.64	+0.5
2030	30	MLB	CHC	36	—	36	152	44	15	4	29.1%	9.8%	2.7%	3.69	3.73	+0.5
2031	31	MLB	CHC	35	—	35	146	42	14	4	28.5%	9.9%	2.7%	3.78	3.84	+0.4
2032	32	MLB	CHC	33	—	33	140	39	14	4	27.9%	10.1%	2.8%	3.88	3.95	+0.4
2033	33	MLB	CHC	32	—	32	134	36	14	4	27.2%	10.2%	2.9%	4.00	4.08	+0.3
2034	34	MLB	CHC	30	—	30	127	34	13	4	26.5%	10.4%	3.0%	4.13	4.22	+0.2
2035	35	MLB	CHC	28	—	28	120	31	13	4	25.8%	10.7%	3.1%	4.27	4.37	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			187	39	290	1242	325	153	32	26.2%	12.3%	2.6%	4.34	3.88	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—			129	27	200	857	224	106	22	26.2%	12.3%	2.6%	4.34	3.88	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Palencia (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.53	30.1%	9.5%	2.5%	—	3.58	30.0%	20.4%	113	+0.05	—	—	—
Ken Giles R 2026 · 2.23 FIP	26	SW	2.23	33.6%	8.5%	1.6%	.288	2.43	32.6%	27.1%	103	+0.20	1.95	368	76
Zach McAllister R 2027 · 2.83 FIP	27	SW	2.83	28.1%	6.4%	2.4%	.333	3.89	23.5%	16.0%	159	+1.06	2.83	363	72
Ben Heller R 2025 · 2.93 FIP	25	SW	2.93	32.4%	9.4%	2.5%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	71
David Morgan R 2025 · 3.37 FIP	25	SU	3.37	25.9%	11.4%	1.8%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	148	71
Ty Buttrey R 2026 · 3.18 FIP	26	SW	3.18	27.2%	7.4%	2.6%	.314	4.24	15.9%	5.2%	63	+1.06	2.43	522	70
Justin Grimm R 2026 · 2.87 FIP	26	SU	2.87	32.8%	12.3%	1.8%	.250	4.09	26.1%	15.2%	157	+1.22	2.87	335	70
Craig Kimbrel R 2027 · 2.46 FIP	27	SW	2.46	36.4%	8.8%	2.4%	.272	2.16	42.6%	32.3%	184	-0.30	1.10	556	69
Tucker Healy R 2026 · 2.83 FIP	26	SW	2.83	30.4%	10.5%	1.8%	.294	4.61	16.9%	5.8%	67	+1.78	2.83	174	69
Kyle Keller R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	26	SW	3.81	28.7%	9.4%	3.5%	.293	4.72	28.0%	17.8%	52	+0.91	2.73	264	69
Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.36 FIP	26	SU	3.36	26.6%	8.0%	2.7%	.291	2.98	24.1%	13.3%	63	-0.38	2.67	178	69
Trey Wingenter R 2025 · 3.19 FIP	25	SW	3.19	33.0%	12.8%	2.3%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	293	69
Jon Edwards R 2027 · 3.39 FIP	27	SW	3.39	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.39	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.39	132	69
Lou Trivino R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	26	SW	3.60	27.4%	9.0%	3.0%	.247	3.85	22.4%	11.8%	157	+0.25	2.39	550	69
Jeremiah Estrada R 2026 · 3.06 FIP	26	SW	3.06	35.5%	8.2%	3.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	1.85	239	69
Alex Lange R 2026 · 3.02 FIP	26	SW	3.02	30.3%	11.1%	1.9%	.273	3.90	26.4%	10.5%	108	+0.88	3.02	451	68
Orion Kerkering R 2024 · 3.30 FIP	24	SW	3.30	24.4%	9.0%	2.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.89	165	68
Ryne Stanek R 2026 · 3.06 FIP	26	SW	3.06	30.4%	10.0%	2.3%	.311	3.85	28.9%	18.4%	143	+0.79	2.94	708	67
David Bednar R 2026 · 2.44 FIP	26	SW	2.44	32.5%	7.2%	2.1%	.254	2.88	27.9%	20.5%	177	+0.44	1.66	510	67
Nick Anderson R 2026 · 2.64 FIP	26	SW	2.64	25.2%	7.7%	1.3%	.276	2.48	32.7%	26.6%	179	-0.16	0.98	394	67
Jaden Hill R 2025 · 2.56 FIP	25	SU	2.56	28.4%	7.7%	1.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	129	67

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.895 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.4M
2029	Arb-2	$3M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$4M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$12M	+$4M