Daniel Palencia — OGILVIE

Daniel Palencia P Chicago Cubs

Age 26 RHP 5'11" / 160 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.9 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9587vR 79

ERA3.47

FIP3.25

K%28.4%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%19.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9099.2

Whiff%

p5626.3%

p6024.0%

xwOBA vs

p430.320

FB+2.7 (69%)

SI (3%)

SL-0.9 (25%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.895 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$0.0M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.6M
2029	Arb-2	$3M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	13	13	41	180	52	24	5	100%	3.2	21.4%	15.7%	5.6%	3.7%	4.79	5.32	—
2021	21	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	13	13	41	180	52	24	5	100%	3.2	28.9%	13.3%	15.6%	2.8%	4.79	3.90	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	21	20	75	315	98	35	7	95%	3.6	24.0%	12.8%	11.2%	3.0%	3.94	4.32	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	21	20	75	315	98	35	7	95%	3.6	31.1%	11.1%	20.0%	2.2%	3.94	3.10	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	5	57	251	69	30	7	11%	1.3	24.9%	12.0%	12.9%	3.0%	5.65	4.18	+0.3
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	5	57	251	69	30	7	11%	1.3	24.9%	12.0%	12.9%	3.0%	5.65	4.18	+0.3
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	5	57	251	69	30	7	11%	1.3	27.5%	12.0%	15.5%	2.8%	5.65	3.85	+0.5
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	54	241	84	34	3	2%	1.2	30.1%	13.2%	16.9%	1.3%	5.20	2.93	+1.0
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	54	241	84	34	3	2%	1.2	30.1%	13.2%	16.9%	1.3%	5.20	2.93	+1.0
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	1	54	241	84	34	3	2%	1.2	34.9%	14.1%	20.7%	1.2%	5.20	2.60	+1.3
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	57	236	70	17	5	0%	1.0	28.4%	7.0%	21.4%	2.4%	2.83	2.91	+1.1
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	57	236	70	17	5	0%	1.0	28.4%	7.0%	21.4%	2.4%	2.83	2.91	+1.1
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	57	236	70	17	5	0%	1.0	29.7%	7.2%	22.5%	2.1%	2.83	2.68	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			118	0	120	507	135	49	12	0%	1.0	26.6%	9.7%	17.0%	2.4%	3.99	3.38	+1.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	33	0	29	129	32	14	4	0%	0.9	24.0%	7.7%	16.3%	4.0%	5.28	4.24	+0.1
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	33	0	29	129	32	14	4	0%	0.9	24.0%	7.7%	16.3%	4.0%	5.28	4.24	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	CHC	2	0	2	9	1	3	0	0%	0.8	11.1%	33.3%	-22.2%	0.0%	21.60	6.38	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	CHC	4	0	3	16	6	3	0	0%	0.8	37.5%	18.8%	18.8%	0.0%	2.70	2.31	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	CHC	27	0	24	104	25	8	4	0%	0.9	24.0%	7.7%	16.3%	3.8%	4.50	4.16	+0.1
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	CHC	27	0	24	104	25	8	4	0%	0.9	24.0%	7.7%	16.3%	3.8%	4.50	4.16	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CHC	6	0	6	25	7	2	1	0%	1.0	28.4%	8.8%	19.5%	2.6%	3.47	3.25	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	CHC	6	0	6	25	7	2	1	0%	1.0	28.4%	8.8%	19.5%	2.5%	3.41	3.19	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	35	154	39	16	5	—	—	25.4%	10.5%	14.9%	3.0%	4.97	4.07	+0.2
FULL	26	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	30	126	39	16	5	—	—	30.9%	12.8%	18.1%	3.7%	5.79	4.12	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CHC	71	0	75	317	91	28	9	0%	1.1	28.8%	8.9%	20.0%	2.8%	3.78	3.71	+0.8
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	69	0	73	307	88	28	9	0%	1.1	28.7%	9.0%	19.7%	2.9%	3.79	3.79	+0.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	CHC	66	0	70	293	83	27	9	0%	1.1	28.1%	9.3%	18.9%	3.1%	3.89	3.95	+0.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	CHC	62	0	65	276	76	26	9	0%	1.1	27.4%	9.6%	17.9%	3.3%	4.05	4.16	+0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	CHC	68	0	71	300	86	27	8	0%	1.0	28.8%	8.9%	20.0%	2.7%	3.72	3.65	+0.7
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	66	0	69	291	84	26	8	0%	1.0	28.7%	9.0%	19.7%	2.8%	3.73	3.73	+0.6
2029	29	MLB CTX	CHC	63	0	66	279	78	26	8	0%	1.0	28.1%	9.3%	18.9%	2.9%	3.83	3.89	+0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	CHC	59	0	62	262	72	25	8	0%	1.1	27.4%	9.6%	17.9%	3.1%	3.98	4.09	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		379	0	394	1665	463	155	45	0%	1.0	27.8%	9.3%	18.5%	2.7%	3.86	3.43	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		193	0	200	845	235	79	23	0%	1.0	27.8%	9.3%	18.5%	2.7%	3.86	3.43	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		215	39	314	1352	347	157	37	18%	1.5	25.7%	11.6%	14.0%	2.8%	4.50	3.93	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	25	200	861	221	100	24	18%	1.5	25.7%	11.6%	14.0%	2.8%	4.50	3.93	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Palencia (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.45	30.5%	9.1%	2.5%	—	3.81	28.6%	19.5%	217	+0.36	—	—	—
Cade Smith R 2023 · 3.44 FIP	24	SU	3.44	29.0%	9.7%	2.9%	.333	1.56	35.2%	28.9%	215	-1.88	1.03	379	74
Shane Smith R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	23	SU	3.52	28.1%	10.4%	2.7%	.259	3.59	22.9%	13.1%	284	+0.07	3.01	342	74
Ty Buttrey R 2019 · 3.14 FIP	26	SU	3.14	27.2%	7.4%	2.5%	.314	4.33	15.9%	5.2%	63	+1.19	2.43	522	74
Zach McAllister R 2015 · 2.82 FIP	27	SU	2.82	28.1%	6.4%	2.4%	.333	3.88	23.5%	16.0%	159	+1.06	2.82	363	73
Arquimedes Caminero R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	23.0%	8.5%	2.4%	.265	4.45	17.9%	6.5%	61	+0.91	3.54	173	73
Alex Hoppe R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	23.7%	9.2%	3.5%	.371	3.94	20.7%	8.7%	184	-0.27	3.13	233	72
Lou Trivino R 2018 · 3.54 FIP	26	SU	3.54	27.4%	9.0%	2.9%	.247	3.90	22.4%	11.8%	157	+0.36	2.39	593	72
Dovydas Neverauskas R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	26	SU	4.33	26.7%	9.7%	4.1%	.352	5.67	25.8%	14.6%	19	+1.34	2.74	353	72
Kyle Keller R 2019 · 3.83 FIP	26	SU	3.83	28.7%	9.4%	3.6%	.293	4.88	28.0%	17.8%	52	+1.05	2.72	296	71
Nick Anderson R 2016 · 2.63 FIP	26	SU	2.63	25.2%	7.7%	1.3%	.276	2.49	32.7%	26.6%	179	-0.14	0.94	411	71
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	71
José Ruiz R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	26	SU	3.85	23.2%	8.9%	2.9%	.244	4.45	23.2%	13.3%	182	+0.60	3.43	459	70
Scott Oberg R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	26	SU	3.19	22.9%	9.1%	1.6%	.260	2.92	23.8%	16.4%	188	-0.27	2.54	302	70
Sam Wolff R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	26	SU	3.40	26.6%	8.0%	2.8%	.291	2.98	24.1%	13.3%	63	-0.42	2.66	178	70
Brandon Maurer R 2016 · 3.08 FIP	26	SU	3.08	24.0%	6.0%	2.3%	.286	4.32	21.0%	11.4%	114	+1.24	3.08	234	70
Pierce Johnson R 2017 · 3.09 FIP	26	SU	3.09	27.8%	11.7%	1.6%	.374	3.71	25.0%	13.7%	86	+0.62	2.75	593	69
José Ramírez R 2016 · 3.36 FIP	26	SU	3.36	23.0%	10.4%	1.6%	.274	4.56	21.7%	10.8%	62	+1.20	3.36	206	69
Ben Heller R 2017 · 2.86 FIP	25	SU	2.86	32.4%	9.4%	2.4%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	69
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	69
Tucker Healy R 2016 · 2.82 FIP	26	SU	2.82	30.4%	10.5%	1.8%	.294	4.64	16.9%	5.8%	67	+1.82	2.82	174	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	72	28.8%	9.2%	1.12	3.83
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Brad Peacock ('19)	1.6	80	28.7%	9.2%	1.18	3.48
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19