Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Stockton Ports | 28 | 24 | 127 | 554 | 96 | 40 | 19 | 86% | 4.5 | 13.3% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 5.44 | 3.99 | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Stockton Ports | 28 | 24 | 127 | 554 | 96 | 40 | 19 | 86% | 4.5 | 17.3% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 5.44 | 4.47 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 64 | 267 | 69 | 30 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 7.9% | 1.8% | 2.54 | 3.93 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 64 | 267 | 69 | 30 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.8% | 11.2% | 14.6% | 1.5% | 2.54 | 3.16 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 60 | 261 | 57 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 3.88 | 5.45 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 60 | 261 | 57 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 3.88 | 4.13 | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 36 | 2 | 45 | 196 | 48 | 18 | 2 | 6% | 1.2 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 1.2% | 4.84 | 3.31 | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 36 | 2 | 45 | 196 | 48 | 18 | 2 | 6% | 1.2 | 24.5% | 9.2% | 15.3% | 1.0% | 4.84 | 2.74 | — |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 51 | 206 | 72 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.5% | 9.3% | 20.2% | 1.3% | 2.31 | 2.50 | — |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 51 | 206 | 72 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 35.0% | 8.7% | 26.2% | 1.5% | 2.31 | 2.09 | — |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 25 | 0 | 25 | 107 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 8.4% | 16.8% | 1.9% | 2.92 | 3.06 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 25 | 0 | 25 | 107 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 8.4% | 16.8% | 1.9% | 2.92 | 3.06 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 68 | 0 | 66 | 294 | 68 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 3.55 | 4.12 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 68 | 0 | 66 | 294 | 68 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 3.55 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 66 | 0 | 67 | 268 | 70 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 7.5% | 18.7% | 3.4% | 3.51 | 3.68 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 66 | 0 | 67 | 268 | 70 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 7.5% | 18.7% | 3.4% | 3.51 | 3.66 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 67 | 0 | 69 | 288 | 63 | 23 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 8.0% | 13.9% | 3.8% | 3.76 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 67 | 0 | 69 | 288 | 63 | 23 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 8.0% | 13.9% | 3.8% | 3.76 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 65 | 0 | 64 | 271 | 60 | 21 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 7.7% | 14.4% | 3.3% | 3.68 | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 65 | 0 | 64 | 271 | 60 | 21 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 7.7% | 14.4% | 3.3% | 3.68 | 4.04 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 1 | 58 | 232 | 56 | 17 | 4 | 2% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 7.0% | 17.0% | 1.9% | 3.43 | 3.00 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 1 | 58 | 232 | 56 | 17 | 4 | 2% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 7.3% | 16.8% | 1.7% | 3.43 | 2.94 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 32 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 14.1% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.13 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | DET | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.00 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | DET | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.00 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 34 | MLB | DET | — | — | 53 | 223 | 42 | 30 | 5 | — | — | 18.7% | 13.2% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 2.52 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 34 | MLB | DET | — | — | 53 | 225 | 42 | 30 | 5 | — | — | 18.6% | 13.1% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 2.52 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | DET | 46 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 42 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | DET | 40 | 0 | 42 | 179 | 35 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | DET | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 42 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | DET | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 35 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 483 | 0 | 491 | 2061 | 462 | 189 | 61 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 3.64 | 4.00 | +8.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 197 | 0 | 200 | 840 | 188 | 77 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 3.64 | 4.00 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 583 | 27 | 737 | 3121 | 653 | 288 | 81 | 5% | 1.3 | 20.9% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 2.6% | 3.72 | 3.92 | +12.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 158 | 7 | 200 | 847 | 177 | 78 | 22 | 5% | 1.3 | 20.9% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 2.6% | 3.72 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Finnegan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.93 | 24.0% | 7.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.83 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 90 | +0.90 | — | — | — |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 75 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.83 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.59 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.83 | 208 | 70 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 70 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.82 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.82 | 23.2% | 10.4% | 0.7% | .296 | 2.96 | 25.0% | 17.3% | 56 | +0.14 | 2.82 | 284 | 69 |
| Jake Petricka R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.31 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 1.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 252 | 68 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.08 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 0.9% | .259 | 3.58 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 122 | +0.50 | 3.08 | 349 | 68 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 68 |
| Jared Hughes R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.05 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .224 | 4.39 | 19.3% | 8.3% | 22 | -0.66 | 3.02 | 358 | 67 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 67 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.89 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 4.58 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.69 | 2.51 | 251 | 67 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.82 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.22 | 187 | 67 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.49 | 18.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .262 | 3.63 | 14.0% | 8.2% | 40 | +0.14 | 2.35 | 140 | 67 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.22 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .282 | 3.92 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.30 | 3.92 | 186 | 67 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 67 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 66 |
| Zack Segovia R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.41 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.36 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +0.95 | 3.41 | 144 | 66 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.67 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.59 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -1.08 | 2.78 | 326 | 66 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.93 | 27.5% | 10.7% | 3.3% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 277 | 66 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 65 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2024 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 48 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 1.17 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |