Tink Hence

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECTFG #269MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP51ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	AASTL	20	20	80	2.71	2.16	34.1%	8.1%	—	K 27.6% · BB 8.9% · FIP 2.64
2025	22	MIX4 levels	8	8	21	2.95	3.29	27.9%	15.1%	—	K 27.9% · BB 15.1% · FIP 3.30
2026	23	AAASTL	19	3	20	6.64	6.35	20.2%	18.2%	—	K 17.4% · BB 16.4% · FIP 6.15
2027PROJ	24	MLBSTL	16	16	90	4.99	4.99	21.7%	12.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ48% MLB	25	MLBSTL	9	9	53	4.68	4.60	22.7%	11.5%	0.1
2029PROJ69% MLB	26	MLBSTL	14	14	84	4.56	4.51	23.3%	11.2%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$2M2032Ext$2M2033Ext$2M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff58Control50Command50FB velo53

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsRay Gaither (age 24) · Tanner Hall (age 22) · Tanner Burns (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%21.7%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%8.9%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5560

CTRL5050

CMD4550

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	8	1	8	41	14	3	1	12%	1.0	34.1%	7.3%	26.8%	2.4%	9.00	2.48	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	8	1	8	41	14	3	1	12%	1.0	34.1%	7.3%	26.8%	2.4%	9.00	2.35	—
2022	19	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	16	16	52	195	81	15	1	100%	3.3	30.7%	9.1%	21.7%	0.8%	1.38	2.07	—
2022	19	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	16	16	52	195	81	15	1	100%	3.3	41.5%	7.7%	33.8%	0.5%	1.38	1.11	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	96	404	99	34	12	100%	4.2	19.4%	9.4%	10.0%	3.3%	4.31	4.48	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	96	404	99	34	12	100%	4.2	24.5%	8.4%	16.1%	3.0%	4.31	3.73	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	20	20	80	320	109	26	5	100%	4.0	27.6%	8.9%	18.7%	1.4%	2.71	2.64	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	20	20	80	320	109	26	5	100%	4.0	27.6%	8.9%	18.7%	1.4%	2.71	2.64	—
2024	21	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	20	20	80	320	109	26	5	100%	4.0	34.1%	8.1%	25.9%	1.6%	2.71	2.16	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	8	8	21	86	24	13	1	100%	2.7	27.9%	15.1%	12.8%	1.2%	2.95	3.30	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	8	8	21	86	24	13	1	100%	2.7	27.9%	15.1%	12.8%	1.2%	2.95	3.30	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	8	8	21	86	24	13	1	100%	2.7	27.9%	15.1%	12.8%	1.2%	2.95	3.29	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	19	3	20	99	20	18	4	16%	1.1	17.4%	16.4%	1.0%	4.4%	6.64	6.15	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	19	3	20	99	20	18	4	16%	1.1	17.4%	16.4%	1.0%	4.4%	6.64	6.15	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	19	3	20	99	20	18	4	16%	1.1	20.2%	18.2%	2.0%	4.0%	6.64	6.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	STL	16	16	90	380	82	49	12	100%	5.6	21.7%	12.8%	8.9%	3.1%	4.99	4.99	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	109	461	105	53	14	100%	5.7	22.7%	11.5%	11.2%	3.1%	4.80	4.72	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	121	511	119	57	16	100%	6.1	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	3.1%	4.68	4.63	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	119	504	117	56	16	100%	6.0	23.2%	11.1%	12.1%	3.1%	4.65	4.65	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	116	489	113	54	16	100%	6.1	23.0%	11.1%	11.9%	3.2%	4.69	4.72	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	110	467	106	53	16	100%	6.1	22.8%	11.3%	11.4%	3.4%	4.79	4.85	+0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	104	439	98	51	16	100%	6.1	22.4%	11.6%	10.8%	3.6%	4.93	5.03	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	53	224	51	26	6	100%	5.9	22.7%	11.5%	11.2%	2.9%	4.68	4.60	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	84	355	82	40	10	100%	6.0	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	2.9%	4.56	4.51	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	94	397	92	44	12	100%	5.9	23.2%	11.1%	12.1%	2.9%	4.53	4.53	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	99	418	96	46	13	100%	6.2	23.0%	11.1%	11.9%	3.0%	4.57	4.60	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	98	414	94	47	13	100%	6.1	22.8%	11.3%	11.4%	3.2%	4.66	4.72	+0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	94	397	89	46	13	100%	5.9	22.4%	11.6%	10.8%	3.3%	4.79	4.89	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		87	87	521	2200	504	248	67	100%	6.0	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	3.0%	4.63	4.27	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	193	95	26	100%	6.0	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	3.0%	4.63	4.27	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		94	71	278	1145	282	117	26	76%	3.0	24.6%	10.2%	14.4%	2.2%	3.50	3.54	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	51	200	825	203	84	18	76%	3.0	24.6%	10.2%	14.4%	2.2%	3.50	3.54	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tink Hence (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	21.7%	12.8%	3.1%	—	4.66	23.1%	11.8%	350	-0.33	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	82
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	81
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	4.95	18.3%	5.2%	131	-0.32	4.34	382	81
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	80
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	80
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	79
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	79
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	78
Matt Ball R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP-	4.72	21.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	312	77
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	77
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	76
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	76
Kyle Nicolas R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	23.7%	11.5%	3.7%	.325	3.67	23.2%	9.7%	176	-0.94	3.25	464	76
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	76
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	75
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	75
Houston Roth R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	19.3%	11.2%	2.8%	.306	5.01	21.1%	8.6%	168	+0.57	3.79	406	75
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	75
Peyton Pallette R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	20.7%	10.9%	3.0%	.309	3.59	25.9%	13.5%	119	-0.79	3.54	273	74
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	110	22.8%	11.5%	1.25	4.78
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Bill Stoneman ('67-'74, 7 WAR*)	6.2	155	22.8%*	11.1%*	1.25*	4.75*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80