Cesar Ayala prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Cesar Ayala P FCL Blue Jays

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%22.0%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	11	6	26	136	30	20	8	55%	2.4	15.0%	18.4%	-3.4%	8.2%	9.35	8.68	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	11	6	26	136	30	20	8	55%	2.4	22.1%	14.7%	7.4%	5.9%	9.35	7.10	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	11	10	42	192	32	30	9	91%	3.8	11.3%	19.5%	-8.2%	6.5%	7.02	8.20	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	11	10	42	192	32	30	9	91%	3.8	11.3%	19.5%	-8.2%	6.5%	7.02	8.20	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	11	10	42	192	32	30	9	91%	3.8	16.7%	15.6%	1.0%	4.7%	7.02	6.48	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.0%	13.4%	8.7%	3.0%	4.98	4.98	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	5	5	26	109	25	13	3	100%	5.2	22.7%	11.9%	10.8%	3.0%	4.79	4.72	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	2	2	11	46	11	6	1	100%	5.5	22.7%	11.9%	10.8%	3.0%	4.79	4.72	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	11	47	11	6	1	100%	5.5	22.7%	11.9%	10.8%	3.0%	4.79	4.34	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	199	109	18	100%	5.6	22.7%	11.9%	10.8%	3.0%	4.79	4.34	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		22	16	68	328	42	62	24	73%	3.1	12.9%	19.1%	-6.2%	7.2%	7.90	8.40	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	47	200	960	123	183	69	73%	3.1	12.9%	19.1%	-6.2%	7.2%	7.90	8.40	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cesar Ayala (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	22.0%	13.4%	3.0%	—	4.72	22.7%	10.8%	26	-0.26	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	89
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	86
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	85
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	83
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	82
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	81
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	81
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	80
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	80
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	80
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	79
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	79
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.6%	11.6%	249	-0.34	4.54	318	79
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	78
Darren Bowen R 2023 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	19.0%	12.8%	1.3%	.236	5.41	15.1%	4.2%	223	+1.59	3.82	278	78
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	78
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	78
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	78
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	77
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	22.4%	12.6%	1.17	4.88
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35