Jose Luis Reyes
P
Fort Wayne TinCaps
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 33 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.69
FIP4.69
K%19.4%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%9.9%
ROS IP34
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Padres | 12 | 0 | 22 | 100 | 25 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 17.0% | 16.2% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 3.68 | 4.49 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Padres | 12 | 0 | 22 | 100 | 25 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 25.0% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 1.0% | 3.68 | 3.19 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 5 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.08 | 3.80 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 5 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.08 | 4.02 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 9 | 52 | 239 | 43 | 19 | 5 | 69% | 4.0 | 12.9% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 5.16 | 4.72 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 9 | 52 | 239 | 43 | 19 | 5 | 69% | 4.0 | 18.0% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 5.16 | 3.79 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 18 | 93 | 422 | 86 | 31 | 9 | 75% | 3.9 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 5.90 | 4.60 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 18 | 93 | 422 | 86 | 31 | 9 | 75% | 3.9 | 20.4% | 7.3% | 13.0% | 2.1% | 5.90 | 3.51 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 9 | 9 | 39 | 182 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 100% | 4.3 | 13.1% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 5.54 | 5.06 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 9 | 9 | 39 | 182 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 100% | 4.3 | 17.0% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 2.2% | 5.54 | 4.15 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 34 | 142 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 34 | 145 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 35 | 147 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 35 | 147 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 34 | 145 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.5% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 33 | 141 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.4% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 3 | 3 | 15 | 63 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SD | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.37 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SD | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SD | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 26 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.5% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SD | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.4% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 21 | 124 | 525 | 112 | 47 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.3% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.02 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 180 | 76 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.3% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 63 | 36 | 211 | 967 | 140 | 99 | 27 | 57% | 3.3 | 14.5% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 5.34 | 4.68 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 34 | 200 | 918 | 133 | 94 | 25 | 57% | 3.3 | 14.5% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 5.34 | 4.68 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Luis Reyes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.69 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.45 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 104 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 88 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 88 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 86 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 86 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 85 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 84 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 84 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 84 |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 83 |
| Nick Fraze R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 82 |
| Keith Rogalla R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .344 | 3.62 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 65 | +0.07 | 3.00 | 113 | 80 |
| Blair Henley R 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 80 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 80 |
| Cade Winquest R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.91 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 158 | -0.45 | 3.34 | 236 | 80 |
| John Matthews R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 145 | -0.21 | 4.40 | 213 | 80 |
| Matt Ager R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 79 |
| Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.40 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .330 | 3.82 | 25.6% | 15.0% | 145 | -0.58 | 2.52 | 275 | 79 |
| Dawson Netz R 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 79 |
| Sean Harney R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.51 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.3% | .285 | 4.69 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.51 | 123 | 79 |
| Greyfer Eregua R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.85 | 18.3% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 126 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 34 | 20.9% | 9.0% | 1.16 | 4.51 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |