Jose Luis Reyes
P
Fort Wayne TinCaps
+0.2
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.3 · 2028
ERA4.67
FIP4.67
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.4%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%9.9%
IP48
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Padres | 12 | 0 | 22 | 100 | 25 | 13 | 1 | 17.0% | 16.2% | 1.4% | 3.68 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 5 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.08 | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 13 | 9 | 52 | 239 | 43 | 19 | 5 | 12.9% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 5.16 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 24 | 18 | 93 | 422 | 86 | 31 | 9 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 5.90 | 4.48 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 9 | 9 | 39 | 182 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 13.1% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 5.54 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | SD | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 39 | 19 | 6 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 43 | 19 | 6 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SD | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SD | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SD | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 21.6% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SD | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 21.5% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | SD | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 43 | 18 | 6 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | SD | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 41 | 18 | 6 | 21.2% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | SD | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 40 | 17 | 6 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | SD | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 37 | 17 | 6 | 20.7% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | SD | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 35 | 17 | 6 | 20.4% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | SD | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 33 | 16 | 6 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | SD | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 30 | 15 | 5 | 19.6% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.94 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | SD | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 28 | 15 | 5 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 5.07 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 63 | 36 | 211 | 967 | 140 | 99 | 26 | 14.5% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 5.34 | 4.64 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 34 | 200 | 918 | 133 | 94 | 25 | 14.5% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 5.34 | 4.64 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Luis Reyes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.44 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 149 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 94 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 92 |
| Matt Pidich R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .303 | 4.09 | 20.8% | 13.3% | 115 | -0.33 | 4.07 | 196 | 91 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 91 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.37 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.86 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.49 | 4.37 | 412 | 91 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.48 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.10 | 4.15 | 338 | 90 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .282 | 5.28 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.56 | 3.72 | 105 | 90 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 90 |
| Josh Advocate R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.4% | .291 | 3.68 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | -0.06 | 3.68 | 118 | 89 |
| Roman Mendez R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 89 |
| Clark Beeker R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.34 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.30 | 4.04 | 287 | 89 |
| Jayson McKinley R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.39 | 17.5% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .308 | 3.59 | 20.4% | 11.3% | 134 | -0.80 | 2.36 | 173 | 89 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2028 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 89 |
| Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.64 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .246 | 3.81 | 21.2% | 12.7% | 169 | +0.17 | 2.90 | 215 | 88 |
| Todd Peterson R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.15 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.82 | 15.0% | 4.3% | 124 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 175 | 88 |
| Anyelo Leclerc R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.01 | 16.2% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .326 | 4.55 | 15.9% | 6.1% | 96 | -0.46 | 4.55 | 140 | 88 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.59 | 17.7% | 7.4% | 1.9% | .303 | 4.11 | 16.6% | 9.3% | 92 | +0.52 | 3.46 | 198 | 88 |
| Kyle Martin R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.53 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.08 | 3.01 | 214 | 88 |
| Blake Goldsberry R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.05 | 16.4% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .267 | 4.51 | 23.6% | 13.4% | 75 | +0.46 | 3.39 | 117 | 88 |
| Luis Eusebio R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.92 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.79 | 131 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Arb-1 | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Arb-2 | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.3M |
| 2035 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $7M | +$2M | ||