Jose Luis Reyes — OGILVIE

Jose Luis Reyes P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%15.6%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%6.1%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	12	0	22	100	25	13	1	0%	1.8	17.0%	16.2%	0.8%	1.4%	3.68	4.49	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	12	0	22	100	25	13	1	0%	1.8	25.0%	13.0%	12.0%	1.0%	3.68	3.19	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	5	0	4	24	4	4	0	0%	0.9	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	2.08	3.80	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	5	0	4	24	4	4	0	0%	0.9	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	2.08	4.02	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	9	52	239	43	19	5	69%	4.0	12.9%	9.5%	3.4%	2.7%	5.16	4.72	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	9	52	239	43	19	5	69%	4.0	12.9%	9.5%	3.4%	2.7%	5.16	4.72	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	9	52	239	43	19	5	69%	4.0	18.0%	7.9%	10.0%	2.1%	5.16	3.79	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	93	422	86	31	9	75%	3.9	15.2%	8.6%	6.6%	2.9%	5.90	4.51	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	93	422	86	31	9	75%	3.9	15.2%	8.6%	6.6%	2.9%	5.90	4.51	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	18	93	422	86	31	9	75%	3.9	20.4%	7.3%	13.0%	2.1%	5.90	3.51	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	9	9	39	182	31	17	4	100%	4.3	13.1%	10.7%	2.4%	2.9%	5.54	4.96	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	9	9	39	182	31	17	4	100%	4.3	13.1%	10.7%	2.4%	2.9%	5.54	4.96	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	9	9	39	182	31	17	4	100%	4.3	17.0%	9.3%	7.7%	2.2%	5.54	4.15	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	SD	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	15.6%	9.6%	6.1%	3.0%	4.99	4.99	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	86	362	64	33	11	100%	5.7	17.7%	9.0%	8.7%	2.9%	4.81	4.74	+0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	87	367	69	32	11	100%	5.8	18.9%	8.7%	10.2%	2.9%	4.66	4.59	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	87	367	72	32	11	100%	6.2	19.6%	8.6%	11.0%	2.9%	4.57	4.52	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	86	361	71	31	11	100%	6.1	19.7%	8.6%	11.0%	3.0%	4.56	4.55	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	83	350	68	31	11	100%	5.9	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	3.1%	4.61	4.64	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	79	335	71	28	11	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	3.2%	4.54	4.50	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	74	315	66	27	11	100%	6.2	20.9%	8.5%	12.4%	3.4%	4.62	4.67	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	70	293	60	26	11	100%	5.8	20.5%	8.9%	11.7%	3.7%	4.77	4.87	+0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	SD	7	7	37	156	28	14	5	100%	5.3	17.7%	9.0%	8.7%	3.0%	4.85	4.78	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	58	245	46	21	7	100%	5.8	18.9%	8.7%	10.2%	3.0%	4.70	4.63	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	69	291	57	25	9	100%	5.8	19.6%	8.6%	11.0%	3.0%	4.61	4.56	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	73	308	61	27	9	100%	6.1	19.7%	8.6%	11.0%	3.1%	4.60	4.59	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	74	312	61	27	10	100%	6.2	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	3.2%	4.65	4.68	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	72	304	65	25	10	100%	6.0	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	3.3%	4.58	4.54	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	69	291	61	25	10	100%	5.8	20.9%	8.5%	12.4%	3.5%	4.67	4.72	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	SD	11	11	65	274	56	24	10	100%	5.9	20.5%	8.9%	11.7%	3.7%	4.82	4.92	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		87	87	516	2178	434	188	70	100%	5.9	19.9%	8.6%	11.3%	3.2%	4.67	4.29	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	168	73	27	100%	6.0	19.9%	8.6%	11.3%	3.2%	4.67	4.29	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		63	36	211	967	140	99	26	57%	3.3	14.5%	10.2%	4.2%	2.6%	5.34	4.62	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	34	200	918	133	94	24	57%	3.3	14.5%	10.2%	4.2%	2.6%	5.34	4.62	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Luis Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	15.6%	9.6%	3.0%	—	4.62	18.7%	10.0%	260	-0.37	—	—	—
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	88
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	85
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	85
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	82
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	81
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	81
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	80
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	80
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	80
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	79
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	79
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	79
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	79
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	79
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	79
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	78
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	78
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	78
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	78
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	76	19.5%	8.7%	1.21	4.66
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63