Michael Valera
P
Salem Red Sox
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 176 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 99
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
K%23.3%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.9%
ROS IP26
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.0% | 20.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.0% | 20.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | DSL BOS Red | 19 | 2 | 32 | 153 | 39 | 19 | 2 | 11% | 1.7 | 17.3% | 15.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 7.96 | 3.99 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | DSL BOS Red | 19 | 2 | 32 | 153 | 39 | 19 | 2 | 11% | 1.7 | 25.5% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 1.3% | 7.96 | 3.26 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 0 | 26 | 122 | 38 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.0% | 18.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 6.58 | 5.36 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 0 | 26 | 122 | 38 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 31.1% | 14.8% | 16.4% | 1.6% | 6.58 | 3.25 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 44 | 196 | 57 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.0% | 13.4% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 4.95 | 4.16 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 44 | 196 | 57 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 29.1% | 11.2% | 17.9% | 1.5% | 4.95 | 2.89 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.04 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 87 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 71 | 2 | 103 | 481 | 98 | 74 | 9 | 3% | 1.5 | 20.3% | 15.4% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 6.18 | 4.39 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 137 | 4 | 200 | 931 | 189 | 144 | 18 | 3% | 1.5 | 20.3% | 15.4% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 6.18 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Valera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.42 | 23.2% | 13.7% | 25 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 85 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .230 | 3.59 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 40 | -0.49 | 2.74 | 188 | 84 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 84 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.16 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .320 | 3.55 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.39 | 2.85 | 185 | 84 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 83 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 83 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 83 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .339 | 3.34 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.90 | 3.31 | 166 | 83 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.39 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .237 | 2.64 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.75 | 2.45 | 394 | 83 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 82 |
| Tanner Kohlhepp R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.74 | 23.4% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 150 | 82 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .417 | 2.87 | 19.5% | 13.2% | 71 | -1.12 | 1.94 | 143 | 82 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 28.2% | 9.7% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.83 | 16.8% | 2.7% | 45 | +0.84 | 3.74 | 163 | 81 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.30 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .276 | 6.16 | 27.5% | 9.3% | 50 | +2.86 | 2.80 | 155 | 81 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.52 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.07 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.45 | 4.02 | 328 | 81 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .321 | 2.78 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.65 | 2.29 | 538 | 81 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .295 | 2.74 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.72 | 2.74 | 239 | 81 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.5% | .280 | 4.01 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.02 | 3.07 | 363 | 80 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.13 | 24.2% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 217 | 80 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.71 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .252 | 4.13 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.42 | 3.15 | 307 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.36 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |