Tanner Kohlhepp — OGILVIE

Tanner Kohlhepp P Erie SeaWolves

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%22.4%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	20	4	24	111	39	25	0	20%	1.2	26.0%	26.6%	-0.6%	0.0%	3.42	4.27	—
2023	24	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	20	4	24	111	39	25	0	20%	1.2	26.0%	26.6%	-0.6%	0.0%	3.42	4.27	—
2023	24	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	20	4	24	111	39	25	0	20%	1.2	35.1%	22.5%	12.6%	0.0%	3.42	2.97	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	46	1	61	273	78	30	2	2%	1.3	22.0%	12.6%	9.4%	1.0%	4.55	3.41	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	46	1	61	273	78	30	2	2%	1.3	22.0%	12.6%	9.4%	1.0%	4.55	3.41	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	46	1	61	273	78	30	2	2%	1.3	28.6%	11.0%	17.6%	0.7%	4.55	2.45	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	31	140	36	12	6	0%	1.3	22.0%	10.6%	11.5%	5.5%	3.48	5.57	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	31	140	36	12	6	0%	1.3	22.0%	10.6%	11.5%	5.5%	3.48	5.57	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	31	140	36	12	6	0%	1.3	25.7%	8.6%	17.1%	4.3%	3.48	4.45	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	44	2	63	253	71	14	5	5%	1.4	22.7%	6.1%	16.6%	2.4%	3.86	3.25	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	44	2	63	253	71	14	5	5%	1.4	22.7%	6.1%	16.6%	2.4%	3.86	3.25	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	DET	44	2	63	253	71	14	5	5%	1.4	28.1%	5.5%	22.5%	2.0%	3.86	2.52	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	DET	20	0	21	89	20	11	3	0%	1.1	22.4%	12.0%	10.4%	3.2%	4.83	4.86	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	DET	8	0	8	34	8	4	1	0%	1.0	22.4%	12.0%	10.4%	3.2%	4.83	4.86	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	33	7	4	1	0%	1.0	22.4%	12.0%	10.4%	3.2%	4.83	4.48	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	101	25	0%	1.1	22.4%	12.0%	10.4%	3.2%	4.83	4.48	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		134	7	179	777	177	94	16	5%	1.3	22.8%	12.1%	10.7%	2.1%	3.97	3.87	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		150	8	200	868	198	105	18	5%	1.3	22.8%	12.1%	10.7%	2.1%	3.97	3.87	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Kohlhepp (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	22.4%	12.1%	3.1%	—	4.86	22.4%	10.4%	21	+0.03	—	—	—
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	85
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	84
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	83
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	82
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	82
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	82
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	82
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	81
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	27	SU	5.07	22.2%	11.4%	4.4%	.256	4.43	23.3%	9.7%	39	-0.64	2.64	315	81
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	81
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.86	21.0%	9.6%	69	+0.93	3.84	181	81
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	81
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	80
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	80
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	80
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	80
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	80
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	80