Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips:
RAW = as recorded ·
CTX = with park/league context ·
A+C = actual + context combined ·
MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park. Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors. WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024
22
MIXMLE
3 levels
22
22
93
383
135
46
5
100%
4.2
27.0%
13.6%
13.3%
1.7%
3.10
3.50
—
2024
22
MIXMLE
3 levels
22
22
93
383
135
46
5
100%
4.2
27.0%
13.6%
13.3%
1.7%
3.10
3.50
—
2024
22
MIXRAW
3 levels
22
22
93
383
135
46
5
100%
4.2
35.2%
12.0%
23.2%
1.3%
3.10
2.38
—
2025
23
MIXMLE
2 levels
25
25
109
484
134
47
8
100%
4.3
22.2%
11.0%
11.2%
2.0%
5.22
3.73
—
2025
23
MIXMLE
2 levels
25
25
109
484
134
47
8
100%
4.3
22.2%
11.0%
11.2%
2.0%
5.22
3.73
—
2025
23
MIXRAW
2 levels
25
25
109
484
134
47
8
100%
4.3
27.7%
9.7%
18.0%
1.7%
5.22
2.89
—
2026
24
MIXMLE
2 levels
25
25
118
520
112
67
11
100%
4.7
19.2%
12.0%
7.2%
2.3%
3.89
4.25
+0.9
2026
24
MIXMLE
2 levels
25
25
118
520
112
67
11
100%
4.7
19.2%
12.0%
7.2%
2.3%
3.89
4.25
+0.9
2026
24
MIXRAW
2 levels
25
25
118
520
112
67
11
100%
4.7
21.5%
12.9%
8.7%
2.1%
3.89
4.12
+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career
—
6
6
27
125
24
21
2
100%
4.5
19.2%
16.8%
2.4%
1.6%
3.67
4.62
+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027
25
MLB
LAA
24
24
138
583
139
74
16
100%
5.8
23.9%
12.7%
11.3%
2.8%
4.62
4.58
+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028
26
MLBMLE
LAA
25
25
150
633
152
77
18
100%
6.0
24.0%
12.1%
11.9%
2.8%
4.54
4.52
+0.7
2029
27
MLBMLE
LAA
25
25
152
641
153
76
18
100%
6.1
23.9%
11.9%
12.0%
2.9%
4.53
4.53
+0.7
2030
28
MLBMLE
LAA
25
25
152
641
152
76
19
100%
6.1
23.6%
11.8%
11.8%
3.0%
4.57
4.60
+0.5
2031
29
MLBMLE
LAA
24
24
145
612
141
73
19
100%
6.0
23.0%
11.9%
11.1%
3.1%
4.68
4.75
+0.3
2032
30
MLBMLE
LAA
23
23
136
575
128
70
19
100%
5.9
22.3%
12.2%
10.1%
3.3%
4.85
4.96
-0.1
2033
31
MLBMLE
LAA
21
21
127
537
116
67
19
100%
6.1
21.6%
12.6%
9.0%
3.5%
5.06
5.19
-0.4
2028
26
MLBCTX
LAA
17
17
101
426
102
52
12
100%
5.9
24.0%
12.1%
11.9%
2.8%
4.57
4.55
+0.4
2029
27
MLBCTX
LAA
20
20
118
498
119
59
14
100%
5.9
23.9%
11.9%
12.0%
2.9%
4.56
4.56
+0.5
2030
28
MLBCTX
LAA
21
21
128
540
128
64
16
100%
6.1
23.6%
11.8%
11.8%
3.0%
4.60
4.63
+0.4
2031
29
MLBCTX
LAA
21
21
127
536
123
64
17
100%
6.0
23.0%
11.9%
11.1%
3.2%
4.71
4.78
+0.2
2032
30
MLBCTX
LAA
20
20
123
519
116
63
18
100%
6.2
22.3%
12.2%
10.1%
3.4%
4.89
5.00
-0.1
2033
31
MLBCTX
LAA
19
19
116
490
106
62
18
100%
6.1
21.6%
12.6%
9.0%
3.6%
5.10
5.23
-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career
—
RAW
125
125
742
3142
719
385
97
100%
5.9
22.9%
12.3%
10.6%
3.1%
4.70
4.42
+4.2
/ 200 IP
—
RAW
34
34
200
847
194
104
26
100%
5.9
22.9%
12.3%
10.6%
3.1%
4.70
4.42
+1.1
Career
—
MLE
72
72
320
1387
310
168
28
100%
4.4
22.4%
12.1%
10.3%
2.0%
4.11
3.86
+1.7
/ 200 IP
—
MLE
45
45
200
868
194
105
18
100%
4.4
22.4%
12.1%
10.3%
2.0%
4.11
3.86
+0.4
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.