Carter Baumler

P Round Rock Express

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs AAA ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAARPIL-6040-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	10	1	20	5.75	4.23	20.0%	7.1%	—	K 15.8% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.79
2025	23	MIX3 levels	28	0	40	2.04	2.14	29.1%	11.4%	—	K 25.0% · BB 12.8% · FIP 2.61
2026	24	MIX2 levels	15	0	19	2.79	4.76	21.2%	16.5%	-0.0	K 17.8% · BB 12.4% · FIP 4.21
2027PROJ	25	MLBTEX	23	0	24	4.79	4.79	20.8%	12.2%	-0.1
2028PROJ80% MLB	26	MLBTEX	35	0	37	4.72	4.71	21.3%	11.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ86% MLB	27	MLBTEX	33	0	35	4.71	4.72	21.5%	11.7%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 1.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsMatt Barnes (age 25) · JD Hammer (age 25) · Robinson Leyer (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%20.8%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	4	4	12	48	20	7	0	100%	2.9	41.7%	14.6%	27.1%	0.0%	1.54	1.43	—
2022	20	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	4	4	12	48	20	7	0	100%	2.9	41.7%	14.6%	27.1%	0.0%	1.54	1.47	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	5	17	71	21	9	0	71%	2.4	29.6%	12.7%	16.9%	0.0%	3.18	2.21	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	5	17	71	21	9	0	71%	2.4	29.6%	12.7%	16.9%	0.0%	3.18	2.22	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	1	20	85	17	6	3	10%	2.0	15.8%	9.5%	6.4%	3.3%	5.75	4.79	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	1	20	85	17	6	3	10%	2.0	15.8%	9.5%	6.4%	3.3%	5.75	4.79	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	1	20	85	17	6	3	10%	2.0	20.0%	7.1%	12.9%	3.5%	5.75	4.23	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	40	158	46	18	0	0%	1.4	25.0%	12.8%	12.2%	0.0%	2.04	2.61	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	40	158	46	18	0	0%	1.4	25.0%	12.8%	12.2%	0.0%	2.04	2.61	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	0	40	158	46	18	0	0%	1.4	29.1%	11.4%	17.7%	0.0%	2.04	2.14	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	19	85	18	14	2	0%	1.3	17.8%	12.4%	5.4%	1.9%	2.79	4.21	+0.1
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	19	85	18	14	2	0%	1.3	17.8%	12.4%	5.4%	1.9%	2.79	4.21	+0.1
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	0	19	85	18	14	2	0%	1.3	21.2%	16.5%	4.7%	2.4%	2.79	4.76	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	0	6	27	6	6	1	0%	1.4	22.2%	22.2%	0.0%	3.7%	3.18	6.45	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TEX	23	0	24	101	21	12	3	0%	1.0	20.8%	12.2%	8.6%	2.8%	4.79	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	44	0	46	195	42	23	5	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.8%	9.5%	2.8%	4.72	4.71	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	39	0	41	171	37	20	5	0%	1.0	21.5%	11.7%	9.8%	2.9%	4.71	4.72	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	35	0	37	156	33	18	4	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.8%	9.5%	2.8%	4.72	4.71	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	33	0	35	148	32	17	4	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.7%	9.8%	2.9%	4.71	4.72	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	0	77	329	71	42	10	0%	1.1	21.5%	12.6%	8.8%	2.9%	4.60	4.47	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	0	200	852	184	109	26	0%	1.1	21.5%	12.6%	8.8%	2.9%	4.60	4.47	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		64	10	108	447	109	55	4	16%	1.7	24.4%	12.3%	12.2%	1.0%	3.00	3.14	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	19	200	828	202	101	8	16%	1.7	24.4%	12.3%	12.2%	1.0%	3.00	3.14	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 14 IPFIP 4.05 → 4.21 (+0.16)K% 20.7% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.69%	—	×0.860	17.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.79%	—	×0.900	12.41%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.90%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.05 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 29 IPFIP 1.76 → 2.61 (+0.84)K% 32.5% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.48%	—	×0.770	25.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.150	12.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.229	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 146).

Result: FIP 1.76 → 2.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 8 IPFIP 2.20 → 2.63 (+0.43)K% 21.4% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.43%	—	×0.810	17.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.100	7.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.248	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 2.20 → 2.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 18 IPFIP 3.91 → 4.79 (+0.88)K% 20.5% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.55%	—	×0.770	15.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.22%	—	×1.150	9.45%
HR / BF /BF	2.74%	÷1.026	×1.250	3.34%

Result: FIP 3.91 → 4.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 9 IPFIP 2.88 → 3.80 (+0.91)K% 25.6% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.64%	—	×0.740	18.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.38%	—	×1.180	18.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.020	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 2.88 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Orioles · 8 IPFIP 1.38 → 2.61 (+1.23)K% 34.4% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.38%	—	×0.680	23.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.38%	—	×1.250	11.72%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.027	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 1.38 → 2.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 12 IPFIP 1.43 → 2.68 (+1.25)K% 41.7% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.67%	—	×0.740	30.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.58%	—	×1.180	17.21%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.128	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.43 → 2.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carter Baumler (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.71	21.4%	9.6%	87	-0.08	—	—	—
Matt Barnes R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	25	SU	4.55	20.3%	10.3%	3.4%	.333	3.12	29.8%	19.3%	198	-1.43	2.54	495	83
JD Hammer R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	25	SU	4.84	19.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.298	4.87	22.9%	9.9%	91	+0.03	1.72	285	82
Robinson Leyer R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	25	SU	3.96	21.8%	11.8%	2.2%	.265	4.84	22.3%	6.8%	99	+0.88	3.60	422	81
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	80
Louis Head R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	25	SU	3.87	18.5%	13.6%	1.1%	.315	3.29	20.3%	11.0%	145	-0.58	2.76	336	80
Blair Calvo R 2021 · 3.86 FIP	25	SU	3.86	18.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.320	4.07	23.0%	11.0%	92	+0.21	2.86	181	80
Héctor Neris R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.9%	10.0%	2.5%	.298	3.03	31.5%	23.7%	221	-0.97	2.03	682	79
Michael Mariot R 2014 · 3.78 FIP	25	SU	3.78	17.8%	9.3%	1.8%	.345	3.58	22.7%	13.6%	173	-0.20	2.40	701	79
John Curtiss R 2018 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	22.4%	13.1%	1.6%	.260	4.45	24.1%	16.3%	103	+0.72	2.15	483	79
José Cisnero R 2013 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	20.7%	8.6%	2.6%	.326	4.50	26.1%	14.4%	12	+0.64	2.26	322	79
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	79
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	78
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	78
Chad Smith R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	24	SU	4.32	19.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.274	3.93	25.2%	12.6%	86	-0.39	3.31	258	78
José Ruiz R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	24	SU	4.23	18.8%	11.5%	2.3%	.345	4.09	24.4%	13.8%	126	-0.14	3.43	459	78
Héctor Rondón R 2013 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	18.2%	8.3%	2.6%	.267	2.63	25.9%	21.0%	184	-1.40	2.21	436	78
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	77
Kyle Finnegan R 2017 · 5.04 FIP	25	SU	5.04	18.3%	9.8%	4.1%	.308	2.94	25.3%	15.9%	118	-2.10	2.57	753	77
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	77
Cody Carroll R 2018 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	24.2%	12.7%	2.0%	.282	6.46	24.3%	12.3%	24	+2.73	3.67	311	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	21.3%	12.4%	1.10	4.67
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12