Carter Baumler — OGILVIE

Carter Baumler P Round Rock Express

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION16 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%23.6%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL—50

CMD3545

K†5555

SL (12%)

SI (7%)

CU (48%)

FB-1.7 (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	4	4	12	48	20	7	0	100%	2.9	41.7%	14.6%	27.1%	0.0%	1.54	1.43	—
2022	20	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	4	4	12	48	20	7	0	100%	2.9	41.7%	14.6%	27.1%	0.0%	1.54	1.47	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	5	17	71	21	9	0	71%	2.4	29.6%	12.7%	16.9%	0.0%	3.18	2.21	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	5	17	71	21	9	0	71%	2.4	29.6%	12.7%	16.9%	0.0%	3.18	2.21	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	5	17	71	21	9	0	71%	2.4	29.6%	12.7%	16.9%	0.0%	3.18	2.22	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	1	20	85	17	6	3	10%	2.0	15.8%	9.5%	6.4%	3.3%	5.75	4.79	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	1	20	85	17	6	3	10%	2.0	15.8%	9.5%	6.4%	3.3%	5.75	4.79	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	1	20	85	17	6	3	10%	2.0	20.0%	7.1%	12.9%	3.5%	5.75	4.23	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	40	158	46	18	0	0%	1.4	25.0%	12.8%	12.2%	0.0%	2.04	2.61	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	40	158	46	18	0	0%	1.4	25.0%	12.8%	12.2%	0.0%	2.04	2.61	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	0	40	158	46	18	0	0%	1.4	29.1%	11.4%	17.7%	0.0%	2.04	2.14	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	0	6	27	6	6	1	0%	1.4	22.2%	22.2%	0.0%	3.7%	3.18	6.45	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	13	0	16	71	15	12	1	0%	1.3	—	—	—	—	1.65	—	—
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	13	0	16	71	15	12	1	0%	1.3	—	—	—	—	1.65	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	TEX	9	0	11	44	9	6	0	0%	1.2	20.5%	13.6%	6.8%	0.0%	0.84	3.10	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	TEX	4	0	6	27	6	6	1	0%	1.4	22.2%	22.2%	0.0%	3.7%	3.18	6.07	—
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	TEX	4	0	6	27	6	6	1	0%	1.4	22.2%	22.2%	0.0%	3.7%	3.18	6.07	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	TEX	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	23.6%	12.0%	11.6%	2.7%	4.52	4.52	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB CTX	TEX	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	23.6%	12.0%	11.6%	2.7%	4.52	4.52	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	17	75	16	12	1	—	—	21.3%	16.6%	4.6%	1.5%	1.81	0.25	+1.0
FULL	24	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	7	28	16	12	1	—	—	57.0%	44.6%	12.4%	4.0%	4.73	6.12	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TEX	55	0	58	244	58	29	7	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.7%	12.1%	2.8%	4.54	4.48	+0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	55	0	58	244	59	28	7	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.5%	12.5%	2.8%	4.48	4.45	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	54	0	57	240	58	27	7	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.4%	12.5%	2.9%	4.48	4.48	+0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	TEX	52	0	55	232	55	27	6	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.7%	12.1%	2.8%	4.54	4.48	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	52	0	55	232	56	27	7	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.5%	12.5%	2.8%	4.48	4.45	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	51	0	54	228	55	26	7	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.4%	12.5%	2.9%	4.48	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		161	0	171	723	172	86	21	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.9%	11.9%	2.9%	4.46	4.17	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	848	202	101	25	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.9%	11.9%	2.9%	4.46	4.17	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		62	10	105	433	109	56	4	16%	1.7	25.2%	13.0%	12.2%	0.9%	2.83	3.11	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	19	200	825	208	107	7	16%	1.7	25.2%	13.0%	12.2%	0.9%	2.83	3.11	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carter Baumler (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	23.6%	12.0%	2.7%	—	4.47	23.9%	12.4%	172	-0.05	—	—	—
Bobby Wahl R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	24	SU	3.68	24.5%	11.1%	2.3%	.250	2.70	36.7%	26.0%	58	-0.98	2.03	148	86
R.J. Alvarez R 2015 · 4.79 FIP	24	SU	4.79	23.1%	11.3%	4.0%	.348	3.38	22.4%	10.7%	112	-1.41	3.01	302	83
Matt Barnes R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	25	SU	4.55	20.3%	10.3%	3.4%	.333	3.12	29.8%	19.3%	198	-1.43	2.54	495	83
Jay Flaa R 2016 · 4.68 FIP	24	SU	4.68	18.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.306	4.28	21.8%	9.2%	191	-0.40	3.59	273	83
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.15	246	82
Emilio Pagán R 2015 · 3.48 FIP	24	SU	3.48	20.8%	9.2%	1.8%	.280	3.78	26.0%	18.4%	209	+0.30	2.67	719	81
Héctor Neris R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.9%	10.0%	2.5%	.298	3.03	31.5%	23.7%	221	-0.97	2.03	682	81
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	80
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	80
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	80
Johnny Barbato R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.4%	11.2%	2.0%	.282	4.66	21.1%	11.6%	105	+0.93	2.59	304	79
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	79
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	79
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	79
Luis Ramirez R 2016 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	104	79
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	79
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	79
Blair Calvo R 2021 · 3.86 FIP	25	SU	3.86	18.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.320	4.11	22.6%	10.6%	92	+0.25	2.86	181	78
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	78
Will Vest R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	21.8%	8.5%	2.5%	.282	3.65	20.9%	11.9%	124	-0.06	2.56	448	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	56	23.8%	11.6%	1.09	4.50
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82