John Curtiss
P
Reno Aces
Age 33
RHP
6'5" / 220 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION16 act + 66 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.50
FIP4.61
K%17.4%
BB%5.4%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP66
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4794.3
Whiff%
p1520.4%
K%
p1417.0%
xwOBA vs
p430.320
FB+8.0 (54%)
CH (7%)
CT-0.8 (30%)
SL-1.5 (9%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 7 | 54 | 242 | 51 | 14 | 10 | 33% | 2.6 | 15.7% | 5.7% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 5.33 | 5.21 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 7 | 54 | 242 | 51 | 14 | 10 | 33% | 2.6 | 21.1% | 5.8% | 15.3% | 4.1% | 5.33 | 4.40 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 61 | 251 | 85 | 24 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 2.66 | 2.55 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 61 | 251 | 85 | 24 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 33.9% | 9.6% | 24.3% | 0.0% | 2.66 | 1.49 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 0 | 58 | 232 | 78 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.6% | 12.2% | 17.4% | 0.0% | 2.33 | 2.15 | +1.6 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 0 | 58 | 232 | 78 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 33.6% | 10.3% | 23.3% | 0.9% | 2.33 | 2.10 | +1.7 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 1 | 62 | 270 | 68 | 33 | 3 | 2% | 1.3 | 22.4% | 13.1% | 9.2% | 1.8% | 3.06 | 3.87 | +0.5 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 1 | 62 | 270 | 68 | 33 | 3 | 2% | 1.3 | 25.2% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 1.1% | 3.06 | 3.13 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 1 | 36 | 174 | 45 | 23 | 9 | 4% | 1.6 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 7.50 | 7.30 | -1.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 1 | 36 | 174 | 45 | 23 | 9 | 4% | 1.6 | 25.9% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 5.2% | 7.50 | 5.77 | -0.5 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 17 | 3 | 25 | 99 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 18% | 1.5 | 25.3% | 3.0% | 22.2% | 3.2% | 1.80 | 3.11 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 17 | 3 | 25 | 99 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 18% | 1.5 | 25.3% | 3.0% | 22.2% | 3.0% | 1.80 | 3.02 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 3 | 45 | 190 | 46 | 12 | 6 | 7% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 6.4% | 17.1% | 3.3% | 3.38 | 3.76 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 3 | 45 | 190 | 46 | 12 | 6 | 7% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 6.3% | 17.9% | 3.2% | 3.38 | 3.59 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 41 | 182 | 37 | 18 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 5.93 | 5.68 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 41 | 182 | 37 | 18 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 4.9% | 5.93 | 5.47 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 52 | 227 | 42 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.8% | 5.9% | 10.9% | 1.7% | 4.47 | 3.37 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 52 | 227 | 42 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 5.3% | 13.2% | 2.6% | 4.47 | 3.67 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 1 | 69 | 283 | 52 | 14 | 12 | 2% | 1.3 | 17.2% | 5.1% | 12.1% | 5.1% | 5.06 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 1 | 69 | 283 | 52 | 14 | 12 | 2% | 1.3 | 18.4% | 4.9% | 13.4% | 4.2% | 5.06 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | AAA | Reno Aces | 12 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.02 | 6.40 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | ARI | 63 | 0 | 66 | 277 | 48 | 15 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 5.4% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 4.50 | 4.61 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | ARI | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 5.4% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 4.50 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 81 | 345 | 61 | 21 | 14 | — | — | 17.8% | 6.1% | 11.7% | 4.0% | 4.41 | 4.96 | +0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 7 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 1 | — | — | 17.4% | 5.4% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 4.50 | 4.23 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 57 | 0 | 60 | 252 | 42 | 15 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.6% | 5.9% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 4.75 | 4.91 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 35 | 15 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 5.05 | 5.25 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 29 | 14 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 5.39 | 5.61 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.6% | 5.9% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 4.75 | 4.91 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 5.05 | 5.25 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 5.39 | 5.61 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 134 | 5 | 156 | 644 | 135 | 38 | 23 | 4% | 1.2 | 21.0% | 6.0% | 15.1% | 3.5% | 4.06 | 4.01 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 172 | 6 | 200 | 827 | 173 | 49 | 30 | 4% | 1.2 | 21.0% | 6.0% | 15.1% | 3.5% | 4.06 | 4.01 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 387 | 16 | 519 | 2218 | 470 | 196 | 73 | 4% | 1.3 | 21.2% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.11 | 4.24 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 149 | 6 | 200 | 854 | 181 | 76 | 28 | 4% | 1.3 | 21.2% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.11 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| John Curtiss (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 17.4% | 5.4% | 3.5% | — | 5.23 | 15.6% | 9.2% | 161 | +0.62 | — | — | — |
| Hector Navarro R 2028 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 83 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 81 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 80 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.95 | 19.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | .277 | 4.37 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 16 | +0.42 | 2.95 | 260 | 79 |
| Casey Fien R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.11 | 15.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 136 | 79 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 78 |
| Brandon Kintzler R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.56 | 16.3% | 6.5% | 1.8% | .313 | 3.91 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 111 | +0.35 | 2.47 | 332 | 78 |
| Jake Petricka R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.87 | 19.1% | 8.0% | 4.3% | .340 | 3.31 | 18.3% | 10.4% | 24 | -1.56 | 3.04 | 252 | 78 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.91 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 78 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 78 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.58 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .335 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -0.95 | 2.63 | 144 | 77 |
| Pedro Rodriguez R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.95 | 14.7% | 4.9% | 2.7% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 145 | 77 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 77 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.59 | 18.4% | 4.7% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.60 | 283 | 77 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.77 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 4.0% | .286 | 3.18 | 23.7% | 17.9% | 150 | -1.59 | 2.27 | 426 | 76 |
| Fernando Salas R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.83 | 17.6% | 5.3% | 2.8% | .278 | 4.70 | 20.8% | 15.5% | 52 | +0.87 | 2.80 | 288 | 76 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 76 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.80 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 149 | 76 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2024 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 75 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.23 | 14.8% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .331 | 4.76 | 14.9% | 5.8% | 48 | +0.53 | 3.20 | 244 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 57 | 16.2% | 6.1% | 1.52 | 4.88 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |