John Curtiss — OGILVIE

John Curtiss P Reno Aces

Age 33 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION16 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.48

FIP4.58

K%17.0%

BB%4.9%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL7070

CMD4545

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p1520.4%

p1417.0%

xwOBA vs

p430.320

FB+8.0 (54%)

CH (7%)

CT-0.8 (30%)

SL-1.5 (9%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	7	54	242	51	14	10	33%	2.6	15.7%	5.7%	10.0%	5.5%	5.33	5.53	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	7	54	242	51	14	10	33%	2.6	21.1%	5.8%	15.3%	4.1%	5.33	4.40	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	61	251	85	24	0	0%	1.4	23.6%	11.4%	12.2%	0.0%	2.66	2.55	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	61	251	85	24	0	0%	1.4	33.9%	9.6%	24.3%	0.0%	2.66	1.49	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	58	232	78	24	2	0%	1.2	29.6%	12.2%	17.4%	0.0%	2.33	2.15	+1.7
2017	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	58	232	78	24	2	0%	1.2	33.6%	10.3%	23.3%	0.9%	2.33	2.10	+1.7
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	62	270	68	33	3	2%	1.3	22.4%	13.1%	9.2%	1.6%	3.06	3.73	+0.6
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	62	270	68	33	3	2%	1.3	25.2%	12.2%	13.0%	1.1%	3.06	3.13	+1.0
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	1	36	174	45	23	9	4%	1.6	23.9%	13.0%	10.9%	7.1%	7.50	6.60	-0.8
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	1	36	174	45	23	9	4%	1.6	25.9%	13.2%	12.6%	5.2%	7.50	5.77	-0.5
2020	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	17	3	25	99	25	3	3	18%	1.5	25.3%	3.0%	22.2%	3.1%	1.80	3.06	+0.4
2020	27	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	17	3	25	99	25	3	3	18%	1.5	25.3%	3.0%	22.2%	3.0%	1.80	3.02	+0.5
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	3	45	190	46	12	6	7%	1.1	23.5%	6.4%	17.1%	3.1%	3.38	3.60	+0.5
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	3	45	190	46	12	6	7%	1.1	24.2%	6.3%	17.9%	3.2%	3.38	3.59	+0.5
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	41	182	37	18	9	0%	1.2	18.4%	9.3%	9.0%	5.3%	5.93	5.62	-0.5
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	41	182	37	18	9	0%	1.2	18.4%	9.3%	9.0%	5.3%	5.93	5.62	-0.5
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	41	182	37	18	9	0%	1.2	20.3%	9.9%	10.4%	4.9%	5.93	5.47	-0.4
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	52	227	42	12	6	0%	1.1	15.8%	5.0%	10.8%	1.9%	4.47	3.42	+0.7
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	52	227	42	12	6	0%	1.1	15.8%	5.0%	10.8%	1.9%	4.47	3.42	+0.7
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	52	227	42	12	6	0%	1.1	18.5%	5.3%	13.2%	2.6%	4.47	3.67	+0.5
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	1	69	283	52	14	12	2%	1.3	16.7%	4.6%	12.1%	4.9%	5.06	4.95	-0.3
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	1	69	283	52	14	12	2%	1.3	16.7%	4.6%	12.1%	4.9%	5.06	4.95	-0.3
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	1	69	283	52	14	12	2%	1.3	18.4%	4.9%	13.4%	4.2%	5.06	4.46	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			124	5	145	600	128	36	21	4%	1.2	21.3%	6.0%	15.3%	3.5%	4.03	3.96	+1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	12	0	16	68	13	6	4	0%	1.3	15.9%	7.9%	7.9%	6.5%	4.02	6.32	—
YTD	33	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	12	0	16	68	13	6	4	0%	1.3	15.9%	7.9%	7.9%	6.5%	4.02	6.32	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	AAA RAW	ARI	12	0	16	68	13	6	4	0%	1.3	19.1%	8.8%	10.3%	5.9%	4.02	5.83	—
ROS	33	MLB MLE	ARI	5	0	6	23	4	1	1	0%	1.1	17.0%	4.9%	12.1%	3.5%	4.48	4.58	-0.0
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	21	91	17	7	5	—	—	18.6%	7.8%	10.8%	5.3%	4.14	5.86	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	ARI	57	0	60	252	41	14	10	0%	1.0	16.1%	5.4%	10.7%	3.8%	4.72	4.88	-0.2
2028	35	MLB MLE	ARI	51	0	54	227	34	14	9	0%	1.1	15.2%	6.0%	9.2%	4.1%	5.02	5.21	-0.4
2027	34	MLB CTX	ARI	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	16.1%	5.4%	10.7%	3.8%	4.72	4.88	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	ARI	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	15.2%	6.0%	9.2%	4.1%	5.02	5.21	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		128	5	150	618	131	37	22	4%	1.2	21.2%	6.0%	15.2%	3.5%	4.05	4.00	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		171	7	200	826	175	49	29	4%	1.2	21.2%	6.0%	15.2%	3.5%	4.05	4.00	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		387	16	519	2218	465	191	71	4%	1.3	21.0%	8.6%	12.4%	3.2%	4.11	4.17	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	6	200	854	179	73	27	4%	1.3	21.0%	8.6%	12.4%	3.2%	4.11	4.17	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Curtiss (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	17.0%	4.9%	3.5%	—	5.04	15.7%	10.0%	114	+0.46	—	—	—
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	84
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	81
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	81
Casey Fien R 2017 · 5.10 FIP	33	SU	5.10	15.8%	4.0%	5.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	136	81
Javy Guerra R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	19.9%	4.9%	3.5%	.277	4.37	18.6%	8.6%	16	+0.42	2.95	260	80
Jake Petricka R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	33	SU	4.63	19.1%	8.0%	3.9%	.340	3.21	18.3%	10.4%	24	-1.42	3.04	252	78
Brandon Kintzler R 2018 · 3.62 FIP	33	SU	3.62	16.3%	6.5%	2.0%	.313	3.93	18.1%	12.9%	111	+0.31	2.47	332	78
Miguel Socolovich R 2019 · 3.55 FIP	33	SU	3.55	18.4%	4.7%	2.6%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	283	78
Pedro Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	31	SU	4.14	14.7%	4.9%	3.0%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	145	78
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	77
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	77
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	77
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	76
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	76
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	75
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	75
Ryan Brasier R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	33	SU	4.85	18.0%	8.0%	4.1%	.286	3.16	23.7%	17.9%	150	-1.69	2.31	426	75
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	74
Brian Schlitter R 2019 · 4.40 FIP	33	SU	4.40	14.8%	6.3%	3.2%	.331	4.70	14.9%	5.8%	48	+0.30	3.28	244	74
Fernando Salas R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	33	SU	3.99	17.6%	5.3%	3.1%	.278	4.28	20.8%	15.5%	52	+0.29	2.71	288	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	16.2%	5.4%	1.46	4.72
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Paolo Espino ('22)	1.2	82	19.4%	5.6%	1.82	4.70
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21