John Curtiss
P
Reno Aces
+0.2
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'5" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.45
FIP4.64
xFIP4.34
SIERA4.21
K%19.0%
BB%6.5%
K-BB%12.5%
IP55
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL7070
CMD4545
K†4545
FB Velo
p4794.3
Whiff%
p1520.4%
K%
p1417.0%
xwOBA vs
p430.320
FB+8.0 (54%)
CH (7%)
CT-0.8 (30%)
SL-1.5 (9%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 21 | 7 | 54 | 242 | 51 | 14 | 10 | 15.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.33 | 5.48 | -0.3 |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | 44 | 0 | 61 | 251 | 85 | 24 | 0 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 0.0% | 2.66 | 2.55 | +1.7 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 48 | 0 | 58 | 232 | 78 | 24 | 2 | 29.6% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 2.33 | 2.15 | +1.8 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 46 | 1 | 62 | 270 | 68 | 33 | 3 | 22.4% | 13.1% | 1.5% | 3.06 | 3.71 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 23 | 1 | 36 | 174 | 45 | 23 | 9 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 6.8% | 7.50 | 6.44 | -0.6 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 17 | 3 | 25 | 99 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 25.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1.80 | 3.14 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 42 | 3 | 45 | 190 | 46 | 12 | 6 | 23.5% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 3.38 | 3.67 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 33 | 0 | 41 | 182 | 37 | 18 | 9 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 5.2% | 5.93 | 5.67 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 46 | 0 | 52 | 227 | 42 | 12 | 6 | 16.8% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 4.47 | 3.47 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 55 | 1 | 69 | 283 | 52 | 14 | 12 | 17.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.06 | 4.92 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | AAA | Reno Aces | 4 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | ARI | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 44 | 14 | 8 | 18.9% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 4.45 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 61 | 256 | 51 | 17 | 9 | 19.8% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 4.45 | 4.11 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 40 | 14 | 8 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 4.60 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 36 | 14 | 8 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 4.75 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 32 | 13 | 7 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 4.91 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 379 | 16 | 510 | 2175 | 466 | 193 | 67 | 21.4% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.11 | 4.10 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 149 | 6 | 200 | 853 | 183 | 76 | 26 | 21.4% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.11 | 4.10 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| John Curtiss (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 18.9% | 6.1% | 3.5% | — | 4.85 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 146 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Juan Sandoval R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 81 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .335 | 2.56 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -1.05 | 2.56 | 144 | 81 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 80 |
| Brandon Kintzler R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.65 | 16.3% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .313 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 111 | +0.34 | 2.47 | 332 | 80 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.37 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .312 | 4.52 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +1.15 | 3.37 | 144 | 79 |
| Hector Navarro R 2028 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 79 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.70 | 19.9% | 4.9% | 3.0% | .277 | 4.48 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 16 | +0.78 | 3.01 | 260 | 79 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 79 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 79 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2025 · 3.55 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.55 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .273 | 6.40 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.85 | 3.55 | 155 | 78 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 78 |
| Jake Petricka R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.57 | 19.1% | 8.0% | 3.8% | .340 | 3.19 | 18.3% | 10.4% | 24 | -1.38 | 3.04 | 252 | 77 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 77 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 76 |
| Casey Fien R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.87 | 15.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 136 | 76 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 125 | 76 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 75 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 75 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.83 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .286 | 3.13 | 23.7% | 17.9% | 150 | -1.70 | 2.31 | 403 | 75 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2024 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.