John Curtiss

P Reno Aces

Age 34 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	31	MIX2 levels	46	0	52	4.47	3.67	18.5%	5.3%	0.5	K 16.4% · BB 5.0% · FIP 3.38
2025	32	MIX2 levels	55	1	69	5.06	4.46	18.4%	4.9%	0.1	K 17.0% · BB 4.6% · FIP 4.93
2026	33	AAAARI	12	0	16	4.02	5.91	19.1%	8.8%	—	K 16.4% · BB 7.9% · FIP 6.27
2027PROJ	34	MLBARI	5	0	5	4.56	4.68	17.2%	5.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBARI	1	0	1	4.83	5.01	16.3%	6.1%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo47

xwOBA vs43

K%14

CompsHector Navarro (age 35) · Juan Sandoval (age 34) · Jean Machi (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.56

FIP4.68

K%17.2%

BB%5.5%

K-BB%11.7%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL7070

CMD4545

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p1520.4%

p1417.0%

xwOBA vs

p430.320

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	7	54	242	51	14	10	33%	2.6	15.7%	5.7%	10.0%	5.5%	5.33	5.53	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	7	54	242	51	14	10	33%	2.6	21.1%	5.8%	15.3%	4.1%	5.33	4.40	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	61	251	85	24	0	0%	1.4	23.6%	11.4%	12.2%	0.0%	2.66	2.55	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	61	251	85	24	0	0%	1.4	33.9%	9.6%	24.3%	0.0%	2.66	1.49	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	58	232	78	24	2	0%	1.2	29.6%	12.2%	17.4%	0.0%	2.33	2.15	+1.7
2017	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	58	232	78	24	2	0%	1.2	33.6%	10.3%	23.3%	0.9%	2.33	2.10	+1.7
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	62	270	68	33	3	2%	1.3	22.4%	13.1%	9.2%	1.6%	3.06	3.73	+0.6
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	62	270	68	33	3	2%	1.3	25.2%	12.2%	13.0%	1.1%	3.06	3.13	+1.0
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	1	36	174	45	23	9	4%	1.6	23.9%	13.0%	10.9%	7.1%	7.50	6.60	-0.8
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	1	36	174	45	23	9	4%	1.6	25.9%	13.2%	12.6%	5.2%	7.50	5.77	-0.5
2020	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	17	3	25	99	25	3	3	18%	1.5	25.3%	3.0%	22.2%	3.1%	1.80	3.06	+0.4
2020	27	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	17	3	25	99	25	3	3	18%	1.5	25.3%	3.0%	22.2%	3.0%	1.80	3.02	+0.5
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	3	45	190	46	12	6	7%	1.1	23.5%	6.4%	17.1%	3.1%	3.38	3.60	+0.5
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	3	45	190	46	12	6	7%	1.1	24.2%	6.3%	17.9%	3.2%	3.38	3.59	+0.5
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	41	182	37	18	9	0%	1.2	18.7%	9.3%	9.4%	5.3%	5.93	5.59	-0.5
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	41	182	37	18	9	0%	1.2	20.3%	9.9%	10.4%	4.9%	5.93	5.47	-0.4
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	52	227	42	12	6	0%	1.1	16.4%	5.0%	11.4%	1.9%	4.47	3.38	+0.7
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	52	227	42	12	6	0%	1.1	16.4%	5.0%	11.4%	1.9%	4.47	3.38	+0.7
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	52	227	42	12	6	0%	1.1	18.5%	5.3%	13.2%	2.6%	4.47	3.67	+0.5
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	1	69	283	52	14	12	2%	1.3	17.0%	4.6%	12.4%	4.9%	5.06	4.93	-0.3
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	1	69	283	52	14	12	2%	1.3	17.0%	4.6%	12.4%	4.9%	5.06	4.93	-0.3
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	1	69	283	52	14	12	2%	1.3	18.4%	4.9%	13.4%	4.2%	5.06	4.46	+0.1
2026	33	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	12	0	16	68	13	6	4	0%	1.3	16.4%	7.9%	8.5%	6.5%	4.02	6.27	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	12	0	16	68	13	6	4	0%	1.3	16.4%	7.9%	8.5%	6.5%	4.02	6.27	—
2026	33	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	12	0	16	68	13	6	4	0%	1.3	19.1%	8.8%	10.3%	5.9%	4.02	5.91	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			124	5	145	600	128	36	21	4%	1.2	21.3%	6.0%	15.3%	3.5%	4.03	3.96	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	ARI	5	0	5	21	4	1	1	0%	1.0	17.2%	5.5%	11.7%	3.6%	4.56	4.68	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	ARI	24	0	25	106	17	6	4	0%	1.0	16.3%	6.1%	10.2%	3.9%	4.83	5.01	-0.1
2028	35	MLB CTX	ARI	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	16.3%	6.1%	10.2%	3.9%	4.83	5.01	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		125	5	147	606	129	36	21	4%	1.2	21.3%	6.0%	15.3%	3.5%	4.03	3.99	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		171	7	200	826	176	49	29	4%	1.2	21.3%	6.0%	15.3%	3.5%	4.03	3.99	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		387	16	519	2218	468	191	71	4%	1.3	21.1%	8.6%	12.5%	3.2%	4.11	4.16	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	6	200	854	180	73	27	4%	1.3	21.1%	8.6%	12.5%	3.2%	4.11	4.16	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 16 IPFIP 5.83 → 6.27 (+0.44)K% 19.1% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.12%	—	×0.860	16.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×0.900	7.94%
HR / BF /BF	5.88%	÷1.000	×1.100	6.47%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.83 → 6.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 33 IPFIP 4.94 → 5.68 (+0.74)K% 19.7% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.72%	—	×0.860	16.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.34%	—	×0.900	5.70%
HR / BF /BF	4.93%	÷0.904	×1.100	6.00%

Result: FIP 4.94 → 5.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 50 IPFIP 3.22 → 3.38 (+0.16)K% 19.1% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.07%	—	×0.860	16.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.58%	—	×0.900	5.02%
HR / BF /BF	1.86%	÷1.096	×1.100	1.87%

Result: FIP 3.22 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASyracuse Mets · 21 IPFIP 5.86 → 6.30 (+0.44)K% 20.8% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.79%	—	×0.860	17.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.90%	—	×0.900	8.91%
HR / BF /BF	5.94%	÷1.003	×1.100	6.52%

Result: FIP 5.86 → 6.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 34 IPFIP 5.42 → 6.60 (+1.18)K% 27.2% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.16%	—	×0.880	23.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.35%	—	×1.050	12.96%
HR / BF /BF	5.56%	÷0.866	×1.100	7.06%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 5.42 → 6.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAARochester Red Wings · 55 IPFIP 3.22 → 3.73 (+0.51)K% 25.4% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.42%	—	×0.880	22.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.050	13.12%
HR / BF /BF	1.25%	÷0.879	×1.100	1.56%

Result: FIP 3.22 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 25 IPFIP 1.65 → 2.37 (+0.72)K% 35.4% → 28.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.35%	—	×0.810	28.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.12%	—	×1.100	13.33%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.975	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 1.65 → 2.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAARochester Red Wings · 24 IPFIP 1.50 → 1.92 (+0.42)K% 34.7% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.74%	—	×0.880	30.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.050	11.05%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.956	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.50 → 1.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Curtiss (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	17.2%	5.5%	3.6%	—	5.01	16.3%	10.2%	25	+0.33	—	—	—
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	85
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	83
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	80
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	79
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	78
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	191	76
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	76
Brendan Donnelly R 2005 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	19.6%	5.9%	3.3%	.264	4.02	17.6%	8.5%	98	-0.00	2.23	385	74
Giovanni Carrara R 2002 · 4.78 FIP	34	SU	4.78	14.5%	7.2%	3.6%	.239	3.83	17.1%	7.9%	158	-0.95	2.50	462	73
Willie Eyre R 2011 · 4.18 FIP	33	SU	4.18	13.9%	6.9%	2.5%	.182	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	164	73
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	72
Jose Pina R 2019 · 5.28 FIP	33	SU	5.28	14.6%	6.8%	4.7%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	424	71
Fernando Villalobos R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	32	SU	4.70	10.6%	8.0%	2.7%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	152	70
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	70
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	69
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	69
Scott Atchison R 2010 · 4.59 FIP	34	SU	4.59	16.2%	6.7%	3.6%	.263	2.98	15.7%	11.1%	127	-1.61	2.52	340	69
Chris Nichting R 2001 · 4.11 FIP	35	SU	4.11	21.2%	3.7%	4.2%	.351	4.67	16.6%	13.3%	36	+0.56	4.11	103	69
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	68
Matt Herges R 2004 · 4.18 FIP	34	SU	4.18	13.0%	5.6%	2.7%	.346	4.29	11.7%	4.5%	149	+0.11	2.90	691	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	44	19.8%	6.0%	1.38	4.23
Casey Fien ('17)	1.4	58	21.0%	5.1%	1.46	4.42
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Jamie Walker ('09)	2.2	55	16.7%	5.8%	1.49	4.13
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*
Donn Pall ('88-'98, 3 WAR*)	2.5	63	17.1%*	6.2%*	1.20*	3.86*