Louis Head
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Age 36
RHP
6'1" / 180 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.47
FIP4.60
K%22.7%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP51
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3793.6
Whiff%
p3723.4%
K%
p2718.8%
xwOBA vs
p280.338
FB-7.5
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 47 | 0 | 60 | 258 | 59 | 32 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.5% | 13.6% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 4.03 | 4.01 | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 47 | 0 | 60 | 258 | 59 | 32 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.9% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 0.8% | 4.03 | 3.17 | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 45 | 0 | 68 | 270 | 61 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.3% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 1.5% | 2.66 | 3.30 | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 45 | 0 | 68 | 270 | 61 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 15.9% | 1.1% | 2.66 | 2.67 | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 50 | 0 | 61 | 255 | 65 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.4% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 0.6% | 3.23 | 2.89 | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 50 | 0 | 61 | 255 | 65 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.5% | 10.2% | 15.3% | 0.8% | 3.23 | 2.68 | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 15 | 0 | 16 | 86 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 12.64 | 4.58 | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 15 | 0 | 16 | 86 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 12.64 | 4.95 | — |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 4 | 33 | 148 | 40 | 13 | 4 | 18% | 1.5 | 21.2% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 6.34 | 4.73 | — |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 4 | 33 | 148 | 40 | 13 | 4 | 18% | 1.5 | 27.0% | 8.8% | 18.2% | 2.7% | 6.34 | 3.44 | — |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 2 | 64 | 249 | 69 | 18 | 4 | 4% | 1.2 | 25.9% | 7.4% | 18.5% | 1.6% | 2.26 | 2.75 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 2 | 64 | 249 | 69 | 18 | 4 | 4% | 1.2 | 27.7% | 7.2% | 20.5% | 1.6% | 2.26 | 2.60 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 1 | 45 | 212 | 47 | 31 | 5 | 2% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 15.2% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 6.40 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 1 | 45 | 212 | 47 | 31 | 5 | 2% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 6.40 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 33 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 11 | 0 | 12 | 58 | 14 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 27.2% | -5.9% | 7.2% | 10.80 | 8.69 | — |
| 2023 | 33 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 11 | 0 | 12 | 58 | 14 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 25.9% | -1.7% | 6.9% | 10.80 | 9.01 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 48 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 49 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | PHI | 42 | 0 | 44 | 187 | 41 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.7% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.97 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 55 | 2 | 64 | 274 | 58 | 23 | 6 | 4% | 1.2 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 12.9% | 2.2% | 4.10 | 3.59 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 173 | 6 | 200 | 854 | 181 | 72 | 19 | 4% | 1.2 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 12.9% | 2.2% | 4.10 | 3.59 | +4.2 | ||
| Career | — | 286 | 7 | 358 | 1536 | 324 | 178 | 30 | 2% | 1.3 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 1.9% | 4.42 | 3.85 | +6.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 160 | 4 | 200 | 858 | 181 | 99 | 17 | 2% | 1.3 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 1.9% | 4.42 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Louis Head (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 22.7% | 10.4% | 3.1% | — | 4.97 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 44 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 82 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 79 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 79 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 76 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 76 |
| Jim Johnson R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 76 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.28 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.2% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 244 | 75 |
| Mark Lowe R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 75 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.25 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78 | 326 | 75 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 74 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 74 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.53 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.7% | .298 | 5.49 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.96 | 3.17 | 225 | 73 |
| John Axford R 2025 · 3.78 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.78 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 197 | 73 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.86 | 20.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .295 | 5.60 | 26.0% | 14.0% | 27 | +1.74 | 2.61 | 339 | 73 |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 73 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.70 | 27.0% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .278 | 4.06 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 103 | +0.36 | 3.51 | 219 | 73 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 72 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.51 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .347 | 5.90 | 19.1% | 2.3% | 22 | +2.39 | 2.19 | 426 | 72 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 68 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 48 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 1.28 | 4.61 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |