Louis Head — OGILVIE

Louis Head P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 36 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.46

FIP4.58

K%22.7%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p3723.4%

p2718.8%

xwOBA vs

p280.338

FB-7.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	25	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	47	0	60	258	59	32	2	0%	1.3	18.5%	13.6%	4.9%	1.1%	4.03	3.87	—
2015	25	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	47	0	60	258	59	32	2	0%	1.3	22.9%	12.4%	10.5%	0.8%	4.03	3.17	—
2016	26	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	45	0	68	270	61	18	3	0%	1.5	18.3%	7.3%	11.0%	1.4%	2.66	3.25	—
2016	26	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	45	0	68	270	61	18	3	0%	1.5	22.6%	6.7%	15.9%	1.1%	2.66	2.67	—
2017	27	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	50	0	61	255	65	26	2	0%	1.2	22.4%	10.7%	11.7%	0.7%	3.23	2.95	—
2017	27	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	50	0	61	255	65	26	2	0%	1.2	25.5%	10.2%	15.3%	0.8%	3.23	2.68	—
2018	28	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	15	0	16	86	20	10	3	0%	1.0	20.5%	12.2%	8.3%	3.4%	12.64	4.77	—
2018	28	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	15	0	16	86	20	10	3	0%	1.0	23.3%	11.6%	11.6%	3.5%	12.64	4.95	—
2019	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	4	33	148	40	13	4	18%	1.5	21.2%	12.7%	8.6%	3.5%	6.34	4.85	—
2019	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	4	33	148	40	13	4	18%	1.5	27.0%	8.8%	18.2%	2.7%	6.34	3.44	—
2021	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	2	64	249	69	18	4	4%	1.2	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	1.7%	2.26	2.76	+1.4
2021	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	2	64	249	69	18	4	4%	1.2	27.7%	7.2%	20.5%	1.6%	2.26	2.60	+1.5
2022	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	1	45	212	47	31	5	2%	1.0	20.4%	15.2%	5.2%	2.5%	6.40	4.66	-0.1
2022	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	1	45	212	47	31	5	2%	1.0	22.2%	14.6%	7.5%	2.4%	6.40	4.52	+0.0
2023	33	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	11	0	12	58	14	15	4	0%	1.1	20.0%	23.3%	-3.2%	7.4%	10.80	8.41	—
2023	33	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	11	0	12	58	14	15	4	0%	1.1	20.0%	23.3%	-3.2%	7.4%	10.80	8.41	—
2023	33	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	11	0	12	58	14	15	4	0%	1.1	24.1%	25.9%	-1.7%	6.9%	10.80	9.01	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			55	2	64	272	58	23	6	4%	1.2	21.3%	8.5%	12.9%	2.2%	4.10	3.59	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	36	MLB	PHI	4	0	4	17	4	2	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	3.1%	4.46	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	PHI	42	0	44	187	41	20	7	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.7%	10.9%	3.5%	4.74	4.95	-0.2
2027	37	MLB CTX	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.6%	10.7%	10.9%	3.5%	4.74	4.95	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	2	64	274	58	23	6	4%	1.2	21.3%	8.5%	12.9%	2.2%	4.10	3.59	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		173	6	200	854	181	72	19	4%	1.2	21.3%	8.5%	12.9%	2.2%	4.10	3.59	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		286	7	358	1536	323	176	30	2%	1.3	21.0%	11.4%	9.6%	2.0%	4.42	3.85	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	4	200	858	180	98	17	2%	1.3	21.0%	11.4%	9.6%	2.0%	4.42	3.85	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Louis Head (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	22.7%	10.2%	3.1%	—	4.95	21.6%	10.9%	44	+0.37	—	—	—
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	82
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	80
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	78
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	76
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	76
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	75
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	74
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	73
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	73
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	72
Santiago Casilla R 2016 · 3.69 FIP	36	SU	3.69	27.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.278	4.13	19.8%	8.7%	103	+0.44	3.50	219	72
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	147	71
Matt Albers R 2019 · 4.13 FIP	36	SU	4.13	22.1%	10.1%	2.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	244	71
Carlos Torres R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	36	SU	4.28	17.8%	9.0%	2.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	326	70
Blake Parker R 2021 · 3.86 FIP	36	SU	3.86	20.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.295	5.74	26.0%	14.0%	27	+1.88	2.52	339	69
John Axford R 2018 · 3.64 FIP	35	SU	3.64	23.2%	9.0%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	197	69
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	69
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	68
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	68
Jason Motte R 2017 · 5.16 FIP	35	SU	5.16	16.3%	11.4%	3.6%	.193	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	113	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	48	22.2%	10.4%	1.29	4.59
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43