Jack O'Dowd

2B Hartford Yard Goats

Age 26 L/R 6'2" / 210 lbs AA HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	25	AACOL	217	.254/.336/.434	7	3	70	—	.204/.271/.332
2026	25	A+COL	153	.359/.457/.664	9	1	136	—	.284/.364/.515
2027PROJ2% MLB	26	MLBCOL	5	.227/.293/.411	0	0	84	0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	27	MLBCOL	90	.227/.294/.409	3	1	85	0.1
2029PROJ50% MLB	28	MLBCOL	159	.227/.293/.406	6	2	84	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

ISO67

wRC+56

wOBA54

BB%39

Chase%39

K%26

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 90%

CompsMatt Lloyd (age 26) · Ryan Schimpf (age 26) · Andy Yerzy (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†84

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .293 / .411

PA5

HR0

K%40

BB%7

BABIP300

ISO172

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 36 / POW 54

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT36

scouting grade only

POWER54

scouting grade only

EYE47

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	25	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	217	189	48	13	0	7	20	63	4	3	0	254	336	434	770	180	336	29	9	339	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+	Spokane Indians	—	153	128	46	10	1	9	21	27	2	1	1	359	457	664	1.121	305	394	18	14	476	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	96	84	29	7	1	7	8	17	0	0	0	345	402	702	1.105	357	344	18	8	452	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	43	40	14	4	0	5	2	14	0	0	0	350	372	825	1.197	475	429	33	5	499	224	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	25	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	217	196	40	10	0	5	14	77	4	3	0	204	271	332	603	128	297	35	6	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	153	134	38	8	1	7	15	36	2	1	1	284	364	515	879	231	318	24	10	369	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	96	87	23	5	1	5	5	23	0	0	0	264	304	517	822	253	279	24	5	364	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	4 teams	—	509	457	113	26	2	20	37	149	6	4	1	247	312	444	756	197	313	29	7	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA RAW	4 teams	—	509	441	137	34	2	28	51	121	6	4	1	311	388	587	975	277	362	24	10	415	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	4 teams	—	509	461	113	26	2	20	37	149	6	4	1	245	312	440	752	195	300	29	7	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	25	AA MLE	4 teams	—	509	461	113	26	2	20	37	149	6	4	1	245	312	440	752	195	300	29	7	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	COL	2%	380	345	74	15	1	13	28	122	4	6	1	214	281	379	660	164	286	32	7	293	84	-7	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	COL	2%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	227	293	411	703	184	300	40	0	310	84	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	COL	33%	269	244	52	10	1	9	20	85	3	4	1	215	282	377	660	163	285	32	7	293	85	-5	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	COL	50%	319	288	62	12	1	11	24	100	4	4	1	214	282	374	656	160	285	31	8	292	84	-6	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	COL	56%	344	311	66	13	1	11	26	108	4	4	1	213	281	370	651	156	283	31	8	290	82	-7	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	COL	59%	359	325	69	14	1	11	27	112	4	4	2	212	279	364	643	152	282	31	8	287	80	-8	+0	-2	+1	+8	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	COL	33%	90	82	18	4	0	3	7	29	1	1	0	227	294	409	703	182	300	32	8	310	85	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	COL	50%	159	144	33	6	1	6	12	50	2	2	1	227	293	406	699	179	299	31	8	309	84	-3	+0	-0	+1	+3	0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	COL	56%	192	174	40	8	1	7	14	60	2	2	1	225	292	400	692	175	297	31	7	306	82	-4	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	COL	59%	213	193	42	8	1	7	16	66	2	2	1	224	290	393	684	170	295	31	8	303	80	-5	+0	-1	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	654	593	133	26	3	23	49	205	7	7	3	224	291	395	686	170	299	31	7	306	88	-14	+0	-2	+2	+14	0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	133	26	3	23	49	204	7	7	3	226	293	397	690	171	301	31	8	306	88	-14	+0	-2	+2	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	2050	1852	411	85	7	71	152	634	24	24	7	222	289	390	680	168	292	31	7	299	88	-31	+2	-4	+6	+33	0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	131	27	2	23	48	201	8	8	2	223	291	394	684	170	293	31	7	299	88	-13	+1	-2	+2	+14	0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dave Shean'06-'19 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	6	66	228*	284*	352*	+9	+18	3.0	4.3
/162	664	2	18	+2.4	+4.8	0.8	pk7: 6
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Lena Blackburne'10-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,086 PA	3.1	2,086	4	54	215*	288*	334*	+13	+11	2.0	2.0
/162	664	1	17	+4.2	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.0	659	21	8	214	279	372	+2	+2	0.6	0.6
/162	664	21	8	+2.4	+2.0	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Bobby Lowe'01-'07 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,085 PA	3.1	2,085	4	65	229*	274*	350*	+6	+6	0.1	0.1
/162	664	1	21	+2.0	+1.8	0.0	pk7: 0
#6Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jack O'Dowd (OGILVIE)	26	36	54	45	47	212/279/375	163	286	9	4	32%	7%	84	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Matt Lloyd 2022 · AA	26	43→42	53→45	43→50	41	221/289/386	165	313	21	7	35%	7%	91	+0.6	212/279/344	132	297	15	10	32%	7%	76	-0.4	205/275/320	116	273	13	12	28%	8%	69	-0.5
●Ryan Schimpf 2014 · AA	26	36→41	52→60	44→45	47	194/276/360	166	255	20	5	32%	9%	80	-0.2	203/279/394	191	250	23	4	29%	8%	88	+0.5	203/284/421	218	238	27	2	28%	8%	96	+0.8
✕Andy Yerzy 2024 · AA	26	38	49→50	49→40	47	197/281/343	146	263	18	6	31%	9%	78	-0.3	191/256/297	106	275	12	6	33%	8%	57	-1.8	143/211/218	74	223	10	2	39%	7%	19	-1.3
✕Chandler Redmond 2023 · AA	26	39	52→55	43→40	38	204/265/367	163	307	21	3	39%	7%	76	-0.4	203/277/343	140	316	18	5	39%	8%	76	-0.4	191/273/320	129	299	18	4	39%	9%	67	-0.8
✕Jason Vosler 2021 · AAA	27	42→44	52→55	46→40	41	218/277/385	166	296	21	4	33%	7%	85	+0.2	218/282/380	162	267	20	5	26%	7%	86	+0.3	203/268/362	160	247	21	4	27%	7%	75	-0.4
✕Jakson Reetz 2023 · AAA	27	36→33	54→55	44→45	39	201/277/379	178	263	23	4	32%	6%	85	+0.2	203/279/369	166	262	19	6	30%	7%	83	+0.1	183/265/338	155	233	18	5	29%	7%	68	-0.4
✕Drew Robinson 2018 · MLB	26	42→43	52→55	49→50	47	214/291/386	173	292	19	12	32%	10%	91	+0.6	219/295/370	151	353	16	13	39%	9%	88	+0.4	189/271/324	135	347	14	13	45%	10%	67	-0.4
✕Kenny Piper 2024 · AA	26	35	52→50	48→50	42	191/271/353	162	253	20	7	33%	7%	76	-0.4	185/260/323	138	259	16	11	34%	7%	65	-1.2	173/251/309	136	241	15	15	34%	8%	57	-0.9
✕Tommy Giles 2010 · AA	26	42→40	53→55	41→40	43	222/282/395	173	287	21	5	30%	7%	89	+0.5	214/275/350	136	279	15	6	28%	7%	76	-0.4	177/239/292	114	221	13	2	26%	6%	47	-0.9
✕Isan Díaz 2023 · MLB	27	42→43	52→55	46→45	47	218/293/384	166	281	21	8	30%	9%	91	+0.7	210/280/373	163	274	22	9	31%	8%	84	+0.1	168/241/306	138	201	23	6	30%	8%	52	-0.7
✕Peyton Burdick 2022 · AAA	25	40→34	51→50	45→50	46	202/298/366	164	295	19	9	36%	10%	89	+0.5	184/270/334	150	284	17	12	39%	9%	72	-0.7	166/253/310	144	262	17	13	41%	8%	58	-1.3
✕Trey Hair 2022 · A	27	44	52→55	44→45	39	226/294/386	160	314	21	8	34%	6%	92	+0.7	221/275/401	180	283	24	7	31%	6%	88	+0.5	198/243/418	220	221	33	3	30%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Jake Rogers 2021 · MLB	26	39→40	52→60	49→45	44	206/284/367	161	279	20	5	33%	8%	84	+0.1	234/301/437	203	319	26	7	33%	8%	105	+1.7	216/278/421	205	273	28	2	32%	7%	95	+0.4
✕Erik Ostberg 2023 · AA	27	39	49→50	46→45	41	202/264/342	140	286	17	6	35%	8%	70	-0.8	205/260/335	130	284	14	9	31%	7%	67	-1.1	168/213/304	136	218	14	6	30%	5%	40	-0.8
✕Daniel Palka 2018 · AAA	26	41→43	52→55	46→50	38	218/264/379	161	296	21	8	34%	6%	78	-0.3	218/275/398	180	285	25	4	32%	7%	88	+0.4	207/274/387	180	261	25	4	31%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Chris Williams 2023 · AAA	26	36→31	53→55	44→40	43	194/268/360	166	280	22	4	38%	9%	76	-0.4	189/270/349	160	282	21	6	38%	9%	75	-0.5	168/258/327	159	245	22	6	39%	9%	64	-0.8
✕Adam Witter 2009 · AA	26	40→39	52→50	39→30	46	213/280/375	162	266	20	3	28%	8%	84	+0.1	204/261/334	130	261	15	5	27%	7%	67	-1.1	165/214/271	106	203	14	0	27%	6%	34	-1.6
✕César Salazar 2022 · AA	26	40	47→45	48→45	41	207/270/342	135	258	15	9	26%	5%	73	-0.6	210/287/332	122	250	14	8	22%	7%	78	-0.3	206/307/310	103	242	10	6	18%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Kevin Padlo 2022 · MLB	26	38→42	52→55	48→50	42	205/272/372	168	280	21	10	34%	8%	80	-0.1	197/267/330	133	274	15	13	32%	8%	68	-1.0	180/260/303	122	249	13	14	32%	9%	58	-1.1
✕Chase Strumpf 2024 · AAA	26	40→37	51→50	45	46	196/299/356	160	306	19	5	39%	11%	88	+0.4	196/287/328	132	315	15	8	39%	10%	76	-0.4	178/272/293	115	288	13	8	39%	11%	60	-1.0

Jack O'Dowd

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps