Alejandro Rosario

P Down East Wood Ducks

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 182 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2027

Overview

APROSPECTFG #153MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP50ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	18	17	88	2.24	0.92	36.9%	3.7%	—	K 27.8% · BB 4.3% · FIP 1.70
2027PROJ	25	MLBTEX	12	12	71	3.42	3.42	27.9%	5.5%	1.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBTEX	6	6	35	3.61	3.61	27.7%	5.9%	0.6
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBTEX	8	8	51	3.69	3.70	27.3%	6.1%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 2.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$6M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff58Control65Command50FB velo60

CompsYoshinobu Yamamoto (age 25) · Kutter Crawford (age 25) · Andy Ferguson (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9890vR 82

ERA3.42

FIP3.42

K%27.9%

BB%5.5%

K-BB%22.4%

Proj IP71

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6060

CTRL—65

CMD4050

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	88	350	129	13	2	94%	4.9	27.8%	4.3%	23.5%	0.7%	2.24	1.70	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	88	350	129	13	2	94%	4.9	27.8%	4.3%	23.5%	0.7%	2.24	1.70	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	17	88	350	129	13	2	94%	4.9	36.9%	3.7%	33.1%	0.6%	2.24	0.92	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TEX	12	12	71	300	84	17	9	100%	5.9	27.9%	5.5%	22.4%	2.9%	3.42	3.42	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	83	350	97	21	10	100%	5.9	27.7%	5.9%	21.8%	2.9%	3.49	3.49	+1.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	82	345	94	21	10	100%	5.8	27.3%	6.1%	21.2%	3.0%	3.57	3.58	+1.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	79	334	97	18	10	100%	6.1	28.9%	5.5%	23.3%	3.1%	3.50	3.43	+1.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	76	319	91	19	10	100%	5.8	28.5%	5.8%	22.6%	3.2%	3.56	3.58	+1.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	71	300	84	18	10	100%	5.9	28.1%	6.1%	22.0%	3.4%	3.68	3.76	+1.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	66	280	78	18	10	100%	6.0	27.7%	6.5%	21.2%	3.6%	3.85	3.96	+0.7
2034	32	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	61	259	71	18	10	100%	6.1	27.3%	6.9%	20.4%	3.9%	4.05	4.19	+0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	6	6	35	148	41	9	5	100%	5.8	27.7%	5.9%	21.8%	3.1%	3.61	3.61	+0.6
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	51	215	59	13	7	100%	6.4	27.3%	6.1%	21.2%	3.2%	3.69	3.70	+0.8
2030	28	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	59	249	72	14	8	100%	5.9	28.9%	5.5%	23.3%	3.3%	3.63	3.56	+1.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	62	262	75	15	9	100%	6.2	28.5%	5.8%	22.6%	3.5%	3.69	3.71	+1.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	61	258	72	16	9	100%	6.1	28.1%	6.1%	22.0%	3.7%	3.82	3.90	+0.8
2033	31	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	59	249	69	16	10	100%	5.9	27.7%	6.5%	21.2%	3.9%	4.00	4.11	+0.7
2034	32	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	56	236	65	16	10	100%	6.2	27.3%	6.9%	20.4%	4.2%	4.21	4.35	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	383	1616	452	99	58	100%	6.0	28.0%	6.1%	21.8%	3.6%	3.82	3.48	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	236	52	30	100%	6.0	28.0%	6.1%	21.8%	3.6%	3.82	3.48	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		18	17	88	350	97	15	3	94%	4.9	27.8%	4.3%	23.5%	0.7%	2.24	1.70	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	38	200	792	220	34	6	94%	4.9	27.8%	4.3%	23.5%	0.7%	2.24	1.70	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alejandro Rosario (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.42	27.9%	5.5%	2.9%	—	3.50	27.9%	22.1%	244	+0.08	—	—	—
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2024 · 2.45 FIP	25	SP	2.45	28.5%	6.0%	1.8%	.303	2.98	27.5%	20.3%	359	+0.53	2.45	449	84
Kutter Crawford R 2021 · 3.30 FIP	25	SP	3.30	29.1%	5.6%	3.5%	.321	4.23	23.6%	16.6%	415	+0.93	3.30	741	83
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	76
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	76
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	73
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	72
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	825	71
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	71
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	70
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	69
James McDonald R 2010 · 2.99 FIP	25	SP-	2.99	22.2%	7.8%	1.4%	.314	4.36	19.8%	10.2%	372	+1.37	2.99	506	69
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	69
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	68
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	68
Jose Acevedo R 2003 · 3.43 FIP	25	SP-	3.43	22.3%	4.9%	2.9%	.194	4.85	14.9%	9.8%	222	+1.42	3.43	368	68
Glenn Otto Jr. R 2021 · 2.56 FIP	25	SP	2.56	28.3%	6.9%	1.8%	.336	4.94	19.8%	8.1%	194	+2.38	2.56	369	68
M.D. Johnson R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP	4.27	21.3%	7.1%	3.8%	.269	4.85	15.7%	4.1%	181	+0.58	3.52	395	67
Chad Patrick R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP	3.92	22.5%	6.3%	3.5%	.262	3.78	23.0%	14.2%	268	-0.14	3.69	570	67
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	67
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	74	27.9%	6.0%	1.25	3.62
Chad Green ('25)	2.5	62	30.0%	6.4%	1.42	3.43
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.7	56	29.6%	6.6%	1.18	3.49
Joe Sambito ('76-'87, 8 WAR*)	3.1	70	26.8%*	7.5%*	1.06*	3.65*
Seunghwan Oh ('19)	1.1	75	26.8%	6.0%	1.16	3.31
Jeff Montgomery ('87-'99, 19 WAR*)	4.3	72	26.2%*	7.6%*	1.01*	3.16*
Steve Hamilton ('61-'72, 10 WAR*)	3.3	66	25.2%*	7.7%*	0.92*	3.71*