Blaze Jordan — OGILVIE

Blaze Jordan1B Memphis Redbirds

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION335 act + 223 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†99

AVG/OBP/SLG.259 / .303 / .427

PA223

HR7

K%13

BB%5

BABIP273

ISO168

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT50

xwOBA

350.291

POWER52

Barrel%

447.4

Avg EV

4488.7

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED30

Sprint

1225.6

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.5M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$3M	+$1M
2030	Arb-2	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-3	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.6M
Totals		$7M		$12M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	2 teams	—	114	109	26	5	1	5	4	30	0	1	0	239	265	440	706	202	280	26	4	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	2 teams	—	114	105	34	8	1	6	8	21	0	1	0	324	372	590	962	267	354	18	7	414	175	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	2 teams	—	521	480	114	25	2	12	31	143	7	5	1	237	293	373	666	135	311	27	6	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	2 teams	—	521	463	134	30	3	12	48	94	7	5	1	289	365	445	810	156	339	18	9	360	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	2 teams	—	525	493	121	24	1	16	23	102	3	2	0	245	283	396	679	150	276	19	4	293	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	2 teams	—	525	476	141	32	1	18	40	75	3	2	0	296	355	481	836	185	316	14	8	365	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	380	359	78	14	1	6	12	56	6	2	1	217	255	312	567	95	240	15	3	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	380	353	92	22	1	7	18	46	6	2	1	261	308	388	696	127	281	12	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA	2 teams	—	544	506	126	21	2	19	30	80	4	5	1	249	296	411	707	162	260	15	6	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA	2 teams	—	544	493	133	28	2	19	43	60	4	5	1	270	333	450	784	181	273	11	8	345	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AAA	STL	—	335	312	82	20	2	10	16	47	3	2	2	263	305	436	741	173	278	14	5	317	101	+0	-0	+0	-6	+9	0.3
YTD	23	AAA	STL	—	335	306	90	23	2	12	22	41	3	2	2	294	347	500	847	206	304	12	7	368	140	+15	-0	+0	-6	+9	1.9
ROS	23	AAA	STL	100%	223	208	54	12	1	7	11	30	2	1	1	259	303	427	730	168	269	13	5	315	99	-0	-0	-0	-4	+6	0.1
ROS	23	MLB	STL	100%	223	208	54	12	1	7	11	30	2	1	1	260	303	428	731	168	269	13	5	308	94	-1	-0	-0	-4	+6	0.0
FULL	23	AAA	STL	—	558	520	136	32	3	17	27	77	5	3	3	262	304	433	737	171	276	14	5	314	98	-1	-1	-0	-10	+16	0.4
TOT	23	AAA	STL	—	558	520	136	32	3	17	27	77	5	3	3	261	304	432	737	171	276	14	5	316	100	+0	-1	-0	-10	+16	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	STL	65%	607	566	146	31	3	19	31	84	5	4	2	258	302	424	726	166	270	14	5	319	102	+2	+0	-1	-11	+17	0.7
2028	25	MLB	STL	65%	612	568	147	31	3	20	34	87	5	4	2	259	306	430	736	171	272	14	6	323	105	+3	+0	-1	-11	+17	0.9
2029	26	MLB	STL	65%	612	566	146	30	3	20	35	90	6	4	2	258	308	428	736	170	273	15	6	324	106	+4	+0	-1	-11	+17	1.0
2030	27	MLB	STL	65%	607	560	144	30	3	20	36	91	6	4	2	257	309	429	738	171	273	15	6	324	106	+4	+0	-1	-11	+17	0.9
2031	28	MLB	STL	65%	599	553	142	29	3	20	36	90	5	3	2	257	308	429	737	172	272	15	6	323	105	+3	-0	-2	-11	+17	0.8
2027	24	MLB	STL	65%	395	369	94	20	2	12	20	54	3	2	1	255	298	417	716	163	270	14	5	312	97	-1	+0	-1	-7	+11	0.2
2028	25	MLB	STL	65%	398	369	96	20	2	13	22	57	4	2	1	260	309	431	740	171	272	14	6	316	100	-0	+0	-1	-7	+11	0.3
2029	26	MLB	STL	65%	398	368	95	20	2	13	23	58	4	2	1	258	309	429	738	171	273	15	6	317	101	+0	+0	-1	-7	+11	0.4
2030	27	MLB	STL	65%	395	365	93	19	2	13	23	59	4	2	1	255	306	425	731	170	273	15	6	317	101	+0	+0	-1	-7	+11	0.4
2031	28	MLB	STL	65%	389	359	92	19	2	13	23	59	4	2	1	256	308	429	737	173	272	15	6	316	100	-0	+0	-1	-7	+11	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2198	2038	524	110	11	71	122	317	21	11	6	257	306	426	732	169	273	14	6	315	99	-2	-0	-5	-39	+62	1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	603	155	33	3	21	36	94	6	3	2	257	305	426	732	169	273	14	6	315	99	-1	-0	-2	-12	+18	0.5
Career	—			—	5344	4968	1244	252	23	164	283	883	49	35	14	250	297	409	707	159	273	17	5	309	95	-32	+1	-8	-95	+151	1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	604	152	31	3	20	34	107	6	4	2	252	298	412	710	161	274	16	5	309	95	-4	+0	-1	-12	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	A	Salem Red Sox	—	38	36	9	1	0	2	2	8	0	0	0	250	289	444	734	194	269	21	5	323	105	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2021	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	76	69	25	7	1	4	6	13	0	1	0	362	413	667	1.080	304	396	17	8	459	209	+9	+0	—	—	+2	1.2
2022	19	A+	Greenville Drive	—	106	93	28	1	0	4	11	27	2	1	0	301	387	441	828	140	387	25	10	373	144	+5	+0	—	—	+3	0.9
2022	19	A	Salem Red Sox	—	415	370	106	29	3	8	37	67	5	4	1	286	359	446	805	159	329	16	9	356	131	+15	+0	—	—	+12	2.7
2023	20	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	203	189	48	10	0	6	12	28	0	0	0	254	299	402	701	148	268	14	6	309	94	-1	+0	—	—	+6	0.5
2023	20	A+	Greenville Drive	—	322	287	93	22	1	12	28	47	3	2	0	324	390	533	923	209	349	15	9	401	165	+24	+0	—	—	+9	3.4
2024	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	380	353	92	22	1	7	18	46	6	2	1	261	308	388	696	127	281	12	5	309	95	-2	+0	—	—	+11	0.9
2025	22	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	368	343	85	17	2	13	21	41	1	2	1	248	293	423	716	175	247	11	6	314	98	-1	+0	—	—	+10	1.0
2025	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	176	150	48	11	0	6	22	19	3	3	0	320	417	513	930	193	333	11	12	410	172	+14	+1	—	—	+5	2.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Francoeurlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,633 PA	11	5,633	160	54	262	304	417	-60	-26	6.8	9.0
	/162	664	19	6	262	304	417	-7.1	-3.1	0.8	pk7: 11
#2Brandon Mosslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,459 PA	8	3,459	160	11	238	315	455	-53	-41	5.9	5.9
	/162	664	31	2	238	315	455	-10.2	-7.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#3Jesús Aguilarlast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,594 PA	7	2,594	114	1	255	324	452	-46	-35	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	29	0	255	324	452	-11.9	-9.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Eric Karroslast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,197 PA	5	2,197	73	13	255	317	418	-19	-17	3.9	3.9
	/162	664	22	4	255	317	418	-5.7	-5.2	1.2	pk7: 4
#5Nomar Mazaralast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,690 PA	7	2,690	85	7	256	315	414	-29	-21	3.7	3.7
	/162	664	21	2	256	315	414	-7.1	-5.3	0.9	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	2,337	74	14	257	301	423	-42	-10	3.0	3.0
	/162	664	21	4	257	301	423	-11.9	-2.8	0.8	pk7: 3
#6Gaby Sanchezlast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,240 PA	5	2,240	59	12	254	332	411	-40	-26	2.2	2.2
	/162	664	17	4	254	332	411	-11.9	-7.8	0.6	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Blaze Jordan (OGILVIE)	23	40→50	50→52	30	30	261/304/432	171	276	17	3	14%	5%	100	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Gio Urshela 2015 · AAA	23	45→55	49→55	40	42	229/260/379	150	247	16	3	16%	4%	73	-0.1	229/261/338	109	261	11	2	17%	4%	63	-0.9	285/330/460	175	331	21	2	20%	6%	122	+2.0
●Jesus Montero 2013 · MLB	23	51→59	50→55	38→30	44	260/303/410	149	304	19	2	21%	6%	100	+1.7	251/294/403	152	302	18	3	23%	5%	94	+1.3	272/304/412	140	329	15	2	22%	4%	97	+1.3
●Frank Schwindel 2016 · AA	24	45→53	47→60	37→30	36	231/253/372	141	276	15	2	23%	2%	69	-0.4	236/261/392	156	271	19	2	21%	3%	78	+0.2	245/284/425	180	263	23	2	17%	4%	93	+1.0
●Matt Miller 2007 · AAA	24	53→63	49→50	37→40	45	267/310/414	147	290	18	5	16%	5%	104	+2.0	271/321/391	120	310	11	4	16%	6%	102	+1.9	283/338/387	104	336	8	3	17%	7%	106	+2.1
●Wilmer Flores 2016 · MLB	24	50→55	50→60	38→40	44	254/288/403	149	274	18	2	16%	4%	92	+1.2	261/307/438	177	271	23	3	14%	6%	109	+2.4	265/343/467	202	275	26	0	15%	9%	129	+3.1
✕Brian Rey 2022 · AAA	24	48	46→50	40→45	44	238/300/363	125	275	14	7	19%	5%	87	+0.8	222/278/326	104	275	10	9	23%	5%	68	-0.5	193/242/264	71	239	6	9	21%	2%	32	-0.8
✕Willie Cabrera 2010 · AA	23	51→53	44→50	39→45	45	249/289/368	119	278	11	5	16%	5%	82	+0.5	242/285/359	117	270	9	8	14%	5%	79	+0.3	242/285/359	116	266	8	8	12%	5%	75	-0.0
●Tommy Joseph 2013 · AA	22	43→47	46→60	36→30	39	218/263/346	128	281	15	2	28%	5%	66	-0.6	210/256/330	120	267	14	3	26%	5%	59	-1.1	243/294/446	203	274	28	1	23%	6%	105	+1.6
✕Roberto Lopez 2011 · AA	25	49	48→55	38→45	45	244/305/390	145	279	15	5	19%	6%	96	+1.5	239/288/403	164	268	19	6	19%	5%	92	+1.2	235/282/400	164	261	19	6	18%	4%	86	+0.6
●Brandon Drury 2016 · MLB	23	51→54	44→65	37→40	42	251/289/376	124	298	11	3	20%	4%	85	+0.7	256/305/398	142	312	14	3	21%	6%	98	+1.6	259/310/485	225	304	29	1	25%	6%	121	+2.5
✕Chris Marrero 2011 · AA	23	48→52	47→55	37→30	40	242/286/377	136	306	16	2	26%	5%	84	+0.6	244/292/361	117	303	12	3	23%	6%	82	+0.5	239/279/399	160	282	19	0	22%	5%	85	+0.4
✕Austin Hays 2018 · MLB	23	50→54	54→60	41→45	39	258/289/438	179	297	22	5	22%	3%	102	+1.8	231/266/397	166	281	21	9	26%	4%	82	+0.5	249/304/416	166	295	18	4	22%	6%	100	+1.6
✕Jimmy VanOstrand 2009 · AA	24	50→52	44→50	40→30	45	246/293/365	119	288	11	3	19%	5%	84	+0.6	241/288/367	126	288	13	3	20%	6%	82	+0.5	265/313/417	152	292	16	1	15%	5%	102	+1.1
✕Matt Dominguez 2014 · MLB	24	46→47	48→50	38→30	45	231/274/366	135	249	16	2	16%	5%	76	+0.1	216/256/333	117	245	15	2	19%	4%	60	-1.0	214/247/321	107	244	13	1	19%	3%	51	-1.3
✕Dayan Viciedo 2013 · MLB	24	49→52	52→55	40	43	253/298/412	159	288	22	3	21%	5%	99	+1.7	247/294/402	155	289	19	2	21%	6%	94	+1.3	245/292/392	148	287	17	0	21%	5%	87	+0.6
●Cyle Hankerd 2009 · AA	24	46→49	42→60	37→45	42	225/274/325	100	263	9	3	19%	4%	65	-0.7	224/284/326	102	269	8	3	19%	6%	70	-0.3	249/326/441	192	292	25	2	23%	6%	117	+1.7
✕Edinson Rincon 2013 · AA	22	50→55	46→50	34→30	40	247/281/376	129	300	13	2	23%	4%	82	+0.5	233/273/324	91	301	7	4	24%	5%	63	-0.8	210/261/260	50	292	2	0	27%	5%	39	-1.1
★Nolan Arenado 2013 · AA	22	48→56	51→65	39→40	44	247/282/410	162	262	19	2	15%	4%	92	+1.2	242/281/398	156	262	17	3	15%	5%	87	+0.8	268/329/491	223	273	29	3	14%	8%	126	+3.7
●Enrique Hernández 2016 · MLB	24	51→58	47→60	42→45	45	254/298/397	143	290	14	5	18%	5%	94	+1.3	238/312/416	178	281	20	6	22%	10%	105	+2.1	242/323/446	204	270	25	5	20%	10%	112	+1.8
●Mark Trumbo 2009 · AA	23	42→52	52→65	42→45	40	224/262/389	165	263	21	6	24%	4%	78	+0.2	241/278/418	177	288	22	6	24%	5%	92	+1.2	253/304/481	227	290	32	6	25%	6%	114	+2.7