Blaze Jordan
1B Memphis Redbirds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | AABOS | 380 | .261/.308/.388 | 7 | 2 | 66 | — | .240/.279/.344 |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 544 | .270/.333/.450 | 19 | 5 | 92 | — | .254/.302/.399 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAASTL | 252 | .313/.373/.548 | 11 | 2 | 115 | — | .281/.329/.464 |
| 2026 | 23 | MLBSTL | 199 | .247/.282/.382 | 3 | 0 | 82 | -0.8 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 24 | MLBSTL | 70 | .261/.303/.415 | 2 | 0 | 100 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ48% MLB | 25 | MLBSTL | 252 | .262/.305/.421 | 7 | 2 | 103 | 0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ49% MLB | 26 | MLBSTL | 254 | .261/.307/.423 | 7 | 1 | 104 | 0.2 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 38 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 289 | 444 | 734 | 194 | 269 | 21 | 5 | 323 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 76 | 69 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 362 | 413 | 667 | 1.080 | 304 | 396 | 17 | 8 | 459 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 106 | 93 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 301 | 387 | 441 | 828 | 140 | 387 | 25 | 10 | 373 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 415 | 370 | 106 | 29 | 3 | 8 | 37 | 67 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 286 | 359 | 446 | 805 | 159 | 329 | 16 | 9 | 356 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 203 | 189 | 48 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 254 | 299 | 402 | 701 | 148 | 268 | 14 | 6 | 309 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 322 | 287 | 93 | 22 | 1 | 12 | 28 | 47 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 324 | 390 | 533 | 923 | 209 | 349 | 15 | 9 | 401 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 380 | 353 | 92 | 22 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 46 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 261 | 308 | 388 | 696 | 127 | 281 | 12 | 5 | 309 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 368 | 343 | 85 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 21 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 248 | 293 | 423 | 716 | 175 | 247 | 11 | 6 | 314 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 176 | 150 | 48 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 320 | 417 | 513 | 930 | 193 | 333 | 11 | 12 | 410 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 199 | 186 | 46 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 247 | 282 | 382 | 664 | 134 | 274 | 15 | 4 | 288 | 82 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -8 | +4 | -0.8 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 252 | 230 | 72 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 313 | 373 | 548 | 921 | 235 | 321 | 12 | 8 | 403 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 199 | 186 | 46 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 247 | 282 | 382 | 664 | 134 | 274 | 15 | 4 | 288 | 81 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -8 | +4 | -0.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 38 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 237 | 405 | 642 | 189 | 258 | 29 | 3 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 76 | 72 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 264 | 293 | 486 | 779 | 222 | 295 | 25 | 4 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 106 | 98 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 265 | 321 | 398 | 719 | 133 | 354 | 31 | 6 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 415 | 380 | 92 | 25 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 98 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 242 | 301 | 374 | 675 | 132 | 302 | 24 | 7 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 203 | 192 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 279 | 365 | 643 | 120 | 265 | 17 | 4 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 322 | 300 | 79 | 17 | 1 | 12 | 15 | 63 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 263 | 305 | 447 | 752 | 183 | 288 | 20 | 5 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 380 | 358 | 86 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 240 | 279 | 344 | 622 | 103 | 260 | 14 | 3 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 368 | 348 | 82 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 52 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 236 | 271 | 385 | 656 | 149 | 245 | 14 | 4 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 176 | 157 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 293 | 366 | 427 | 792 | 134 | 317 | 14 | 9 | 349 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | MLB MLE | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 199 | 186 | 46 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 247 | 282 | 382 | 664 | 134 | 274 | 15 | 4 | 289 | 82 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -8 | +4 | -0.8 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 252 | 235 | 66 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 35 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 281 | 329 | 464 | 793 | 183 | 299 | 14 | 6 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 114 | 109 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 239 | 265 | 440 | 706 | 202 | 280 | 26 | 4 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 114 | 105 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 324 | 372 | 590 | 962 | 267 | 354 | 18 | 7 | 414 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 521 | 478 | 118 | 26 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 131 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 247 | 305 | 379 | 684 | 132 | 316 | 25 | 6 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 521 | 463 | 134 | 30 | 3 | 12 | 48 | 94 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 289 | 365 | 445 | 810 | 156 | 339 | 18 | 9 | 360 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 525 | 492 | 125 | 25 | 1 | 16 | 24 | 97 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 254 | 293 | 407 | 699 | 152 | 283 | 18 | 5 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 525 | 476 | 141 | 32 | 1 | 18 | 40 | 75 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 296 | 355 | 481 | 836 | 185 | 316 | 14 | 8 | 365 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 380 | 358 | 86 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 240 | 279 | 344 | 622 | 103 | 266 | 14 | 3 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 380 | 353 | 92 | 22 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 46 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 261 | 308 | 388 | 696 | 127 | 281 | 12 | 5 | 309 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 544 | 505 | 128 | 24 | 2 | 15 | 31 | 75 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 253 | 302 | 398 | 700 | 145 | 270 | 14 | 6 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 544 | 493 | 133 | 28 | 2 | 19 | 43 | 60 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 270 | 333 | 450 | 784 | 181 | 273 | 11 | 8 | 345 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 451 | 421 | 111 | 24 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 65 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 264 | 306 | 423 | 729 | 159 | 287 | 14 | 5 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 451 | 416 | 118 | 27 | 5 | 14 | 26 | 59 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 284 | 333 | 474 | 807 | 190 | 300 | 13 | 6 | 352 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 114 | 109 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 239 | 265 | 440 | 706 | 202 | 283 | 26 | 4 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 521 | 476 | 118 | 26 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 131 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 248 | 305 | 380 | 685 | 132 | 313 | 25 | 6 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 525 | 493 | 125 | 25 | 1 | 16 | 24 | 97 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 254 | 293 | 406 | 699 | 152 | 279 | 18 | 5 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 380 | 358 | 86 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 240 | 279 | 344 | 622 | 103 | 260 | 14 | 3 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 544 | 504 | 128 | 24 | 2 | 15 | 31 | 75 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 254 | 302 | 399 | 701 | 145 | 268 | 14 | 6 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 451 | 422 | 111 | 24 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 65 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 263 | 306 | 422 | 728 | 159 | 288 | 14 | 5 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 380 | 358 | 86 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 240 | 279 | 344 | 622 | 103 | 260 | 14 | 3 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 544 | 504 | 128 | 24 | 2 | 15 | 31 | 75 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 254 | 302 | 399 | 701 | 145 | 268 | 14 | 6 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 451 | 422 | 111 | 24 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 65 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 263 | 306 | 422 | 728 | 159 | 288 | 14 | 5 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | STL | 45% | 380 | 355 | 92 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 47 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 260 | 302 | 418 | 720 | 158 | 274 | 12 | 5 | 317 | 100 | +0 | +0 | -1 | -7 | +8 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | STL | 45% | 70 | 66 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 303 | 415 | 717 | 154 | 276 | 13 | 4 | 316 | 100 | +0 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | STL | 48% | 526 | 490 | 128 | 27 | 4 | 15 | 26 | 68 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 261 | 305 | 425 | 730 | 163 | 275 | 13 | 5 | 321 | 103 | +2 | +0 | -1 | -9 | +11 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | STL | 49% | 513 | 476 | 125 | 26 | 4 | 15 | 27 | 68 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 261 | 307 | 427 | 734 | 166 | 275 | 13 | 5 | 322 | 104 | +3 | +0 | -1 | -9 | +11 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | STL | 49% | 499 | 464 | 121 | 25 | 4 | 15 | 27 | 70 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 259 | 306 | 423 | 730 | 164 | 275 | 14 | 5 | 321 | 103 | +2 | +0 | -1 | -9 | +11 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | STL | 49% | 486 | 452 | 116 | 24 | 4 | 14 | 27 | 71 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 257 | 305 | 418 | 722 | 161 | 275 | 15 | 6 | 318 | 101 | +1 | -0 | -1 | -9 | +11 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | STL | 48% | 473 | 439 | 111 | 23 | 3 | 13 | 27 | 72 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 253 | 302 | 410 | 713 | 157 | 274 | 15 | 6 | 314 | 99 | -1 | -0 | -2 | -8 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB MLE | STL | 48% | 460 | 427 | 106 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 72 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 298 | 402 | 700 | 152 | 272 | 16 | 6 | 309 | 95 | -3 | +0 | -3 | -8 | +10 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | STL | 48% | 252 | 236 | 61 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 262 | 305 | 421 | 726 | 159 | 277 | 13 | 5 | 319 | 103 | +1 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | STL | 49% | 254 | 237 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 261 | 307 | 423 | 730 | 162 | 277 | 13 | 5 | 321 | 104 | +1 | -0 | -0 | -5 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | STL | 49% | 246 | 229 | 60 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 259 | 306 | 419 | 726 | 160 | 278 | 14 | 5 | 319 | 103 | +1 | -0 | -0 | -4 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | STL | 49% | 240 | 223 | 57 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 305 | 414 | 718 | 157 | 277 | 15 | 5 | 316 | 101 | +0 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | STL | 48% | 228 | 211 | 54 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 253 | 302 | 407 | 709 | 153 | 276 | 15 | 6 | 313 | 99 | -0 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB CTX | STL | 48% | 219 | 203 | 50 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 298 | 398 | 697 | 148 | 274 | 16 | 5 | 308 | 95 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1638 | 1525 | 390 | 81 | 15 | 41 | 83 | 234 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 256 | 300 | 409 | 709 | 153 | 277 | 14 | 5 | 313 | 95 | -3 | -0 | -4 | -34 | +35 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 605 | 154 | 32 | 6 | 16 | 33 | 93 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 255 | 300 | 407 | 706 | 152 | 276 | 14 | 5 | 313 | 95 | -1 | -0 | -2 | -13 | +14 | -0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5647 | 5257 | 1338 | 276 | 35 | 152 | 293 | 892 | 53 | 29 | 10 | 255 | 301 | 407 | 708 | 153 | 279 | 16 | 5 | 309 | 95 | -1 | +0 | -9 | -64 | +72 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 605 | 154 | 32 | 4 | 17 | 34 | 103 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 255 | 301 | 405 | 706 | 150 | 280 | 16 | 5 | 309 | 95 | -0 | +0 | -2 | -12 | +14 | -0.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 252 PAwOBA .391 → .338 (−53)K% 11.5% → 13.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.51% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 13.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 5.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.19% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.004 | ×1.048 | 19.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×1.048 | 8.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×1.048 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 4.01% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .391 → .338; ISO .235 → .186; BABIP .321 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 368 PAwOBA .307 → .283 (−24)K% 11.1% → 14.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.14% | ÷0.953 | ×1.200 | — | — | 14.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.71% | ÷0.954 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 4.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.27% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.55% | ÷0.982 | ×0.930 | ×1.039 | ×1.050 | 18.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.63% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×1.039 | ×1.050 | 4.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.66% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.039 | ×1.050 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.30% | ÷0.869 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.64% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 80, K 91, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .307 → .283; ISO .175 → .152; BABIP .247 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 176 PAwOBA .402 → .349 (−53)K% 10.8% → 13.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.80% | ÷0.978 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.055 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 8.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.70% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.66% | ÷0.962 | ×0.970 | ×0.991 | ×1.027 | 24.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.40% | ÷1.109 | ×0.860 | ×0.991 | ×1.027 | 6.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.141 | ×0.950 | ×0.991 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.58% | ÷1.119 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 3.28% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 92, 2B 122, 3B 128, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .402 → .349; ISO .193 → .148; BABIP .333 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 380 PAwOBA .303 → .266 (−37)K% 12.1% → 14.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.11% | ÷1.033 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.74% | ÷1.025 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 3.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.58% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.20% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | ×1.042 | 20.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.17% | ÷1.165 | ×0.860 | ×0.988 | ×1.042 | 5.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.33% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | ×1.042 | 0.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.28% | ÷1.018 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 1.82% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .303 → .266; ISO .127 → .100; BABIP .281 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Greenville Drive · 322 PAwOBA .392 → .323 (−69)K% 14.6% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.60% | ÷0.981 | ×1.310 | — | — | 19.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.76% | ÷1.028 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 4.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.17% | ÷1.053 | ×0.870 | ×0.997 | ×1.027 | 20.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.17% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | ×0.997 | ×1.027 | 7.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.42% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.997 | ×1.027 | 0.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.931 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 4.86% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 111, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .392 → .323; ISO .209 → .188; BABIP .349 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 203 PAwOBA .303 → .273 (−30)K% 13.8% → 16.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.79% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.91% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 4.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.88% | ÷0.972 | ×0.970 | ×1.011 | ×1.050 | 21.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.21% | ÷1.144 | ×0.860 | ×1.011 | ×1.050 | 4.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.011 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.73% | ÷1.048 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 2.91% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .303 → .273; ISO .148 → .116; BABIP .268 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ASalem Red Sox · 415 PAwOBA .350 → .295 (−55)K% 16.1% → 23.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.14% | ÷0.930 | ×1.360 | — | — | 23.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.92% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.78% | ÷1.026 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×1.030 | 20.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.57% | ÷0.950 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | ×1.030 | 8.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.99% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | ×1.006 | ×1.030 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.64% | ÷0.873 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.49% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 121, K 86, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .350 → .295; ISO .159 → .138; BABIP .329 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Greenville Drive · 106 PAwOBA .360 → .305 (−55)K% 25.5% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.47% | ÷1.059 | ×1.310 | — | — | 31.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.43% | ÷1.001 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 5.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.89% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 1.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.85% | ÷1.005 | ×0.870 | ×1.022 | ×1.042 | 32.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.022 | ×1.042 | 1.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.022 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.06% | ÷0.996 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 5.58% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 112, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .360 → .305; ISO .140 → .125; BABIP .387 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).