Brian Rey
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 25 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 178 | .305/.390/.404 | 1 | 2 | 118 | — | .185/.214/.259 |
| 2024 | 26 | INTLIndios de May… | 87 | .198/.217/.235 | 0 | 4 | 18 | — | |
| 2025 | 27 | INTLCangrejeros d… | 80 | .308/.416/.385 | 0 | 0 | 126 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Greeneville Reds | — | 193 | 171 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 269 | 349 | 345 | 694 | 76 | 282 | 7 | 6 | 319 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | — | 52 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 146 | 212 | 188 | 399 | 42 | 163 | 10 | 4 | 192 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 259 | 235 | 66 | 16 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 281 | 332 | 464 | 796 | 183 | 291 | 14 | 4 | 344 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 59 | 55 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 259 | 364 | 622 | 145 | 244 | 15 | 3 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 17 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 385 | 529 | 462 | 991 | 77 | 455 | 12 | 18 | 455 | 161 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 283 | 243 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 49 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 255 | 351 | 321 | 672 | 66 | 304 | 17 | 7 | 311 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 57 | 52 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 423 | 444 | 904 | 1.348 | 481 | 348 | 5 | 4 | 543 | 211 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 57 | 47 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 362 | 455 | 426 | 880 | 64 | 425 | 12 | 7 | 390 | 150 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 53 | 51 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 255 | 283 | 353 | 636 | 98 | 286 | 15 | 0 | 286 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 63 | 60 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 270 | 367 | 637 | 133 | 255 | 13 | 0 | 284 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | ROK | ACL Reds | — | 37 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 241 | 405 | 276 | 681 | 34 | 350 | 24 | 14 | 335 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 145 | 126 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 254 | 347 | 302 | 649 | 48 | 286 | 10 | 11 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 28 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 185 | 214 | 259 | 474 | 74 | 250 | 25 | 4 | 214 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 150 | 124 | 41 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 331 | 424 | 435 | 859 | 105 | 351 | 7 | 9 | 374 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 87 | 81 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 198 | 217 | 235 | 451 | 37 | 208 | 8 | 1 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | INTL | Cangrejeros de Santurce | — | 80 | 65 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 308 | 416 | 385 | 800 | 77 | 357 | 12 | 14 | 355 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | Greeneville Reds | — | 193 | 175 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 217 | 286 | 280 | 566 | 63 | 227 | 10 | 4 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 52 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 146 | 212 | 188 | 399 | 42 | 158 | 13 | 4 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 259 | 239 | 56 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 234 | 277 | 389 | 666 | 155 | 247 | 19 | 3 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 17 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 357 | 471 | 429 | 899 | 71 | 441 | 18 | 12 | 406 | 161 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 283 | 248 | 59 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 57 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 238 | 323 | 294 | 617 | 56 | 287 | 20 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 57 | 53 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 358 | 370 | 755 | 1.125 | 396 | 276 | 7 | 2 | 480 | 211 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 53 | 51 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 235 | 264 | 333 | 597 | 98 | 253 | 19 | 0 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 63 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 238 | 317 | 555 | 117 | 223 | 16 | 0 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 37 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 161 | 297 | 194 | 491 | 32 | 263 | 35 | 8 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 28 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 185 | 214 | 259 | 474 | 74 | 236 | 29 | 4 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | Greeneville Reds | — | 193 | 175 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 217 | 286 | 280 | 566 | 63 | 234 | 10 | 4 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK RAW | Greeneville Reds | — | 193 | 171 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 269 | 349 | 345 | 694 | 76 | 282 | 7 | 6 | 319 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 370 | 343 | 74 | 18 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 68 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 216 | 259 | 347 | 606 | 131 | 240 | 18 | 3 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 370 | 338 | 85 | 23 | 0 | 10 | 15 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 251 | 303 | 408 | 711 | 157 | 264 | 13 | 4 | 311 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 414 | 363 | 96 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 74 | 20 | 5 | 8 | 264 | 341 | 377 | 718 | 113 | 304 | 18 | 5 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 414 | 355 | 106 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 61 | 20 | 5 | 8 | 299 | 385 | 425 | 811 | 127 | 333 | 15 | 7 | 360 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | INTL MLE | 4 teams | — | 298 | 281 | 55 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 196 | 239 | 270 | 510 | 75 | 241 | 21 | 2 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | INTL RAW | 4 teams | — | 298 | 266 | 66 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 40 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 248 | 327 | 323 | 650 | 75 | 284 | 13 | 7 | 300 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 178 | 161 | 28 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 53 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 174 | 227 | 242 | 469 | 68 | 255 | 30 | 3 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 178 | 151 | 46 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 305 | 390 | 404 | 794 | 99 | 336 | 10 | 8 | 349 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | INTL MLE | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 87 | 81 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 198 | 217 | 235 | 451 | 37 | 208 | 8 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | INTL RAW | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 87 | 81 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 198 | 217 | 235 | 451 | 37 | 208 | 8 | 1 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | INTL MLE | Cangrejeros de Santurce | — | 80 | 65 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 308 | 416 | 385 | 800 | 77 | 357 | 12 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | INTL RAW | Cangrejeros de Santurce | — | 80 | 65 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 308 | 416 | 385 | 800 | 77 | 357 | 12 | 14 | 355 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | Greeneville Reds | — | 193 | 174 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 286 | 282 | 568 | 63 | 227 | 10 | 4 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 370 | 347 | 74 | 18 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 68 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 213 | 259 | 343 | 602 | 130 | 232 | 18 | 3 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 414 | 369 | 96 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 74 | 20 | 5 | 8 | 260 | 341 | 371 | 712 | 111 | 293 | 18 | 5 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | INTL MLE | 4 teams | — | 298 | 280 | 55 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 196 | 239 | 271 | 510 | 75 | 243 | 21 | 2 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 178 | 165 | 28 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 53 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 170 | 227 | 236 | 463 | 67 | 236 | 30 | 3 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1620 | 1469 | 327 | 60 | 4 | 23 | 63 | 295 | 57 | 27 | 15 | 223 | 281 | 316 | 597 | 93 | 260 | 18 | 4 | 231 | 43 | -111 | -1 | +0 | -10 | +35 | -8.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 131 | 24 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 118 | 23 | 11 | 6 | 222 | 281 | 316 | 597 | 93 | 260 | 18 | 4 | 231 | 43 | -44 | -0 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -3.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAALouisville Bats · 28 PAwOBA .208 → .180 (−27)K% 25.0% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.57% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 2.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷0.998 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 14.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 9.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.054 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 108, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .208 → .180; ISO .074 → .064; BABIP .250 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Dayton Dragons · 63 PAwOBA .276 → .228 (−48)K% 12.7% → 15.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.70% | ÷1.047 | ×1.270 | — | — | 15.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.958 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.76% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 3.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.31% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×1.045 | ×0.988 | 16.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.77% | ÷1.217 | ×0.810 | ×1.045 | ×0.988 | 3.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.028 | ×0.850 | ×1.045 | ×0.988 | 1.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.058 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.44% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 100, 2B 143, 3B 106, K 109, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .276 → .228; ISO .133 → .098; BABIP .255 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 53 PAwOBA .278 → .236 (−42)K% 15.1% → 18.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.09% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.019 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.77% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 3.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.26% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×1.012 | 21.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.65% | ÷1.084 | ×0.910 | ×0.972 | ×1.012 | 3.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | ×0.972 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.33% | ÷0.990 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.90% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 100, 2B 117, 3B 82, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .278 → .236; ISO .098 → .078; BABIP .286 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Reds · 37 PAwOBA .328 → .221 (−107)K% 24.3% → 34.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.32% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 34.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.51% | ÷1.011 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 7.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 8.11% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 5.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.022 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 22.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.035 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 3.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.983 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 97, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .328 → .221; ISO .034 → .022; BABIP .350 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 283 PAwOBA .306 → .276 (−31)K% 17.3% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.31% | ÷1.040 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.42% | ÷0.936 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.027 | 5.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.30% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 4.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.80% | ÷1.011 | ×0.940 | ×1.015 | ×1.027 | 25.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.61% | ÷1.183 | ×0.870 | ×1.015 | ×1.027 | 2.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.912 | ×0.920 | ×1.015 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.55% | ÷0.950 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.30% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 102, 2B 137, 3B 82, K 108, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .306 → .276; ISO .066 → .054; BABIP .304 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Dayton Dragons · 57 PAwOBA .556 → .480 (−76)K% 5.3% → 7.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 5.26% | ÷0.986 | ×1.350 | — | — | 7.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.51% | ÷1.008 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 2.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.41% | ÷1.061 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 16.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.20% | ÷1.011 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 7.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.04% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 1.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.24% | ÷0.960 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 10.57% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 112, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 97, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .556 → .480; ISO .481 → .428; BABIP .348 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAALouisville Bats · 17 PAwOBA .445 → .406 (−39)K% 11.8% → 14.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.76% | ÷0.949 | ×1.200 | — | — | 14.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.099 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 11.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.88% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 5.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.36% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 35.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.945 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 8.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.088 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 90, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .445 → .406; ISO .077 → .074; BABIP .455 → .441. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ADayton Dragons · 259 PAwOBA .340 → .280 (−60)K% 13.5% → 19.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.51% | ÷0.953 | ×1.360 | — | — | 19.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.86% | ÷1.044 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 2.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.70% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.50% | ÷1.033 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 17.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷0.950 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 6.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.024 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.50% | ÷0.950 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.84% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 105, K 91, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .340 → .280; ISO .183 → .153; BABIP .291 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .