César Álvarez
P
Delmarva Shorebirds
+0.2
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.2%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.7%
IP32
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Orioles 1 | 12 | 12 | 47 | 201 | 63 | 19 | 0 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 2.49 | 2.80 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 1 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 28 | 0 | 38 | 183 | 43 | 24 | 5 | 17.4% | 15.5% | 3.5% | 5.92 | 5.51 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | BAL | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 24.3% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 24.3% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.24 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 41 | 13 | 89 | 399 | 80 | 52 | 6 | 20.0% | 13.1% | 1.6% | 3.84 | 3.95 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 92 | 29 | 200 | 897 | 180 | 117 | 13 | 20.0% | 13.1% | 1.6% | 3.84 | 3.95 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| César Álvarez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.21 | 24.0% | 15.1% | 100 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 93 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 93 |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 91 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 91 |
| Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.22 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.84 | 2.82 | 152 | 91 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 90 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 89 |
| Michael Gomez R 2025 · 3.33 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.33 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.33 | 286 | 89 |
| Reilly Hovis R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.33 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.7% | .250 | 4.37 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.04 | 4.33 | 130 | 89 |
| Stephen Jones R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 89 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.83 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .241 | 5.00 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 108 | +1.17 | 3.83 | 144 | 89 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .282 | 5.28 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.56 | 3.72 | 105 | 88 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 88 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 88 |
| Clark Beeker R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.34 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.30 | 4.04 | 287 | 88 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .239 | 5.62 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.91 | 3.71 | 325 | 88 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 87 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.62 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .233 | 3.64 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.98 | 3.54 | 156 | 87 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.91 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .374 | 4.56 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.65 | 3.81 | 220 | 87 |
| Kyle Martin R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.53 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.08 | 3.01 | 214 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.6M |
| 2035 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $3M | $4M | +$1M | ||