Lucas Gordon

P Birmingham Barons

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 193 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	23	23	113	2.23	4.14	21.7%	13.5%	—	K 16.3% · BB 15.7% · FIP 5.61
2025	23	MIX2 levels	24	24	108	3.59	3.32	26.4%	9.6%	—	K 20.6% · BB 10.9% · FIP 4.44
2026	24	AACWS	27	27	117	5.45	4.75	24.1%	11.8%	—	K 19.5% · BB 12.9% · FIP 5.67
2027PROJ	25	MLBCWS	14	14	80	5.50	5.50	19.2%	13.2%	-0.5
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBCWS	8	8	46	5.36	5.35	19.6%	12.6%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCWS	11	11	66	5.29	5.30	19.8%	12.3%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 84%

CompsJimmy Robbins (age 25) · Miguel Cienfuegos (age 26) · Christian MacLeod (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121129vR 138

ERA5.50

FIP5.50

K%19.2%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%6.0%

Proj IP80

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	2	11	48	14	8	0	29%	1.6	29.2%	16.7%	12.5%	0.0%	0.82	2.75	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	2	11	48	14	8	0	29%	1.6	29.2%	16.7%	12.5%	0.0%	0.82	2.74	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	113	452	98	61	10	100%	4.9	16.3%	15.7%	0.5%	3.4%	2.23	5.61	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	113	452	98	61	10	100%	4.9	16.3%	15.7%	0.5%	3.4%	2.23	5.61	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	113	452	98	61	10	100%	4.9	21.7%	13.5%	8.2%	2.2%	2.23	4.14	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	108	439	116	42	10	100%	4.5	20.6%	10.9%	9.6%	3.1%	3.59	4.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	108	439	116	42	10	100%	4.5	20.6%	10.9%	9.6%	3.1%	3.59	4.44	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	108	439	116	42	10	100%	4.5	26.4%	9.6%	16.9%	2.3%	3.59	3.32	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	27	27	117	510	123	60	20	100%	4.3	19.5%	12.9%	6.6%	4.7%	5.45	5.67	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	27	27	117	510	123	60	20	100%	4.3	19.5%	12.9%	6.6%	4.7%	5.45	5.67	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	27	27	117	510	123	60	20	100%	4.3	24.1%	11.8%	12.4%	3.9%	5.45	4.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CWS	14	14	80	338	65	44	12	100%	5.7	19.2%	13.2%	6.0%	3.6%	5.50	5.50	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	18	18	106	446	88	56	16	100%	5.9	19.6%	12.6%	7.1%	3.5%	5.36	5.35	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	104	439	87	54	16	100%	6.1	19.8%	12.3%	7.5%	3.5%	5.29	5.30	-0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	101	426	84	52	15	100%	5.9	19.8%	12.2%	7.6%	3.6%	5.30	5.34	-0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	96	407	80	50	15	100%	6.0	19.6%	12.3%	7.3%	3.7%	5.37	5.44	-0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	91	383	74	48	15	100%	6.0	19.2%	12.6%	6.6%	3.9%	5.52	5.62	-0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	46	194	38	24	7	100%	5.8	19.6%	12.6%	7.1%	3.5%	5.36	5.35	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	66	279	55	34	10	100%	6.0	19.8%	12.3%	7.5%	3.5%	5.29	5.30	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	76	321	63	39	12	100%	5.8	19.8%	12.2%	7.6%	3.6%	5.30	5.34	-0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	79	334	65	41	12	100%	6.1	19.6%	12.3%	7.3%	3.7%	5.37	5.44	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	78	329	63	42	13	100%	6.0	19.2%	12.6%	6.6%	3.9%	5.52	5.62	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	57	345	1456	285	180	54	100%	6.1	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	3.7%	5.37	5.04	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	165	104	31	100%	6.0	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	3.7%	5.37	5.04	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		81	76	349	1449	277	193	53	94%	4.3	19.1%	13.3%	5.8%	3.7%	3.69	5.18	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	44	200	830	159	111	30	94%	4.3	19.1%	13.3%	5.8%	3.7%	3.69	5.18	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Gordon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	19.2%	13.2%	3.6%	—	5.33	19.7%	7.4%	310	-0.17	—	—	—
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.73	19.6%	3.8%	13	+1.04	3.85	176	81
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	81
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	80
Brandon Claussen L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.314	4.56	16.5%	9.2%	244	-0.24	4.41	310	80
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	79
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	78
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	77
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	76
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	76
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	76
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	76
Drew Dowd L 2024 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	16.1%	11.7%	2.1%	.280	3.13	24.9%	16.0%	55	-1.23	3.13	166	75
Hunter Owen L 2024 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	14.5%	8.7%	2.5%	.270	4.72	20.7%	10.2%	189	+0.40	4.16	291	74
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	74
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	74
Will Dion L 2024 · 4.97 FIP	24	SP	4.97	19.3%	9.4%	4.2%	.309	3.39	23.5%	16.3%	186	-1.58	3.14	535	74
Scott Downs L 2000 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP	4.63	14.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	748	74
Daniel Camarena L 2018 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP	4.32	15.9%	9.7%	2.4%	.338	4.71	16.9%	10.5%	187	+0.39	3.76	674	74
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	74
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	96	19.6%	12.5%	1.41	5.38
Jerry Casale ('58-'62, -1 WAR*)	1.9	93	18.7%*	11.2%*	1.44*	5.30*
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41
Jack Kucek ('74-'80, -2 WAR*)	1.0	51	20.4%*	11.8%*	1.44*	5.37*
Jim Britton ('67-'71, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	18.4%*	11.7%*	1.42*	5.10*
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28
Mac Suzuki ('02)	2.3	93	15.4%	12.5%	1.29	5.72