Chase Davis — OGILVIE

Chase DavisOF Springfield Cardinals

Age 24 L/L 6'1" / 216 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION172 act + 148 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.185 / .279 / .308

PA148

HR4

K%33

BB%10

BABIP256

ISO123

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 32 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT32

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	131	110	16	4	0	0	19	54	1	3	0	145	277	182	459	36	281	41	15	225	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	131	104	22	6	0	0	25	34	1	3	0	212	369	269	638	58	310	26	19	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A	3 teams	—	475	423	79	20	1	9	41	166	7	9	2	187	270	303	572	116	278	35	9	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A	3 teams	—	475	408	103	29	1	12	56	113	7	9	2	252	352	417	769	164	317	24	12	344	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	494	434	94	16	0	7	47	191	10	9	2	217	308	302	609	85	364	39	10	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	494	414	100	16	0	10	67	146	10	9	2	242	360	353	713	111	345	30	14	329	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	AA	STL	—	172	150	30	3	0	8	22	52	0	9	1	200	302	380	682	180	244	30	13	305	92	-2	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.4
YTD	24	AA	STL	—	172	140	33	4	0	9	32	40	0	9	1	236	378	457	835	221	264	23	19	374	144	+9	+1	+0	-1	+5	1.4
ROS	24	AA	STL	2%	148	130	24	4	0	4	15	49	2	4	1	185	279	308	587	123	251	33	10	262	59	-7	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.3
ROS	24	MLB	STL	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						251	33	0	254	53	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	24	AA	STL	—	175	153	30	3	0	8	22	53	0	9	1	196	297	373	670	176	239	30	13	304	91	-2	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.4
TOT	24	AA	STL	—	320	280	54	7	0	12	37	101	2	13	2	193	292	346	638	154	250	32	12	285	76	-9	+2	+0	-2	+9	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	STL	31%	514	451	86	14	1	14	53	164	5	12	2	191	283	319	602	129	258	32	10	273	67	-19	+2	+0	-3	+15	-0.6
2028	26	MLB	STL	45%	528	463	90	15	1	15	54	164	6	12	2	194	287	328	615	134	261	31	10	279	72	-17	+2	+0	-3	+15	-0.3
2029	27	MLB	STL	49%	533	467	93	16	1	15	55	164	6	12	2	199	292	334	626	135	263	31	10	281	74	-16	+2	+0	-3	+15	-0.2
2030	28	MLB	STL	52%	532	466	93	16	1	15	55	163	6	12	2	200	292	335	627	135	263	31	10	282	74	-16	+2	-1	-3	+15	-0.3
2031	29	MLB	STL	52%	528	463	90	15	1	14	55	163	5	11	2	194	287	322	609	127	262	31	10	280	72	-17	+1	-1	-3	+15	-0.5
2027	25	MLB	STL	31%	159	140	26	4	0	4	16	51	2	4	1	186	278	300	578	114	258	32	10	266	61	-7	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.3
2028	26	MLB	STL	45%	235	207	40	7	0	7	24	73	2	5	1	193	283	329	612	135	261	31	10	271	66	-9	+1	+0	-1	+7	-0.3
2029	27	MLB	STL	49%	262	230	45	8	0	7	27	81	3	6	1	196	288	322	610	126	263	31	10	273	67	-10	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.3
2030	28	MLB	STL	52%	275	241	47	8	0	8	29	84	3	6	1	195	289	328	617	133	263	31	11	274	68	-10	+1	-0	-2	+8	-0.4
2031	29	MLB	STL	52%	272	239	46	8	0	7	28	84	3	6	1	192	285	314	599	121	262	31	10	272	66	-10	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1206	1060	204	35	0	33	124	374	13	27	5	192	285	319	604	126	260	31	10	272	66	-46	+3	-1	-7	+34	-1.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	110	19	0	18	67	202	7	15	3	193	285	320	606	128	260	31	10	272	66	-25	+2	-1	-4	+18	-0.9
Career	—			—	3883	3407	665	120	6	93	394	1278	48	84	15	195	288	316	603	121	278	33	10	273	67	-144	+11	-2	-23	+110	-5.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	570	112	20	1	16	66	214	8	14	3	196	289	319	608	123	279	33	10	273	67	-24	+2	-0	-4	+18	-0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	131	104	22	6	0	0	25	34	1	3	0	212	369	269	638	58	310	26	19	308	94	-1	+1	—	—	+4	0.3
2024	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	31	28	7	2	0	1	3	5	0	3	0	250	323	429	751	179	273	16	10	334	114	+0	+1	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	22	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	129	113	34	6	1	3	13	29	3	1	1	301	388	451	839	150	383	22	10	376	146	+7	-0	—	—	+4	1.0
2024	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	315	267	62	21	0	8	40	79	4	5	1	232	341	401	742	169	293	25	13	331	112	+4	+1	—	—	+9	1.4
2025	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	494	414	100	16	0	10	67	146	10	9	2	242	360	353	713	111	345	30	14	329	110	+5	+1	—	—	+14	2.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	1,210	33	27	196	285	327	-7	+2	-0.9	-0.4
	/162	664	18	15	196	285	327	-4.0	+1.2	-0.5	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Chase Davis (OGILVIE)	24	30→32	45→50	50	60	193/292/346	154	250	12	13	32%	12%	76	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Matthew Sweeney 2012 · AA	24	34→40	43→50	49→45	41	177/244/289	112	260	11	4	35%	7%	44	-2.1	202/260/313	111	281	9	6	30%	7%	56	-1.3	212/253/318	106	275	4	0	24%	5%	51	-0.3
✕Shayne Fontana 2022 · AA	25	40	41→45	48→55	46	193/273/296	103	282	8	8	32%	9%	58	-1.2	214/297/319	105	298	10	14	29%	9%	75	-0.0	219/304/318	98	295	10	19	27%	8%	75	-0.0
✕Mike Papi 2017 · AA	24	38→47	44→45	44→45	47	192/275/315	123	272	12	5	32%	10%	64	-0.8	219/294/333	114	295	11	5	28%	9%	76	+0.1	221/296/324	103	291	10	4	26%	9%	73	-0.1
✕Brian O'Grady 2016 · A	24	39→37	43→60	54→50	48	193/272/304	111	262	10	14	29%	9%	60	-1.0	191/270/313	122	269	12	13	31%	9%	62	-0.9	207/269/398	192	270	24	15	32%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Grant Witherspoon 2021 · A	24	39→45	39→50	52→50	39	192/242/278	86	277	7	13	32%	6%	39	-2.5	220/275/371	151	299	19	13	32%	7%	79	+0.3	215/275/371	156	290	20	14	32%	7%	75	+0.0
✕Caleb Roberts 2023 · AA	23	41→42	43→45	50	43	199/278/313	114	297	11	12	34%	8%	65	-0.7	202/279/326	124	295	11	11	33%	8%	69	-0.4	187/272/303	117	258	12	11	30%	8%	58	-0.7
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	40	49→50	44	178/256/260	82	272	8	14	35%	9%	42	-2.3	211/287/303	92	304	7	12	30%	9%	66	-0.6	219/303/313	94	309	5	13	28%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Mark Contreras 2019 · A	24	40→37	42→50	47→55	38	194/256/300	106	290	9	11	35%	6%	52	-1.6	186/249/308	122	277	12	13	36%	6%	52	-1.6	197/258/338	141	284	18	24	36%	6%	60	-0.8
✕Drew Robinson 2015 · AAA	23	37→40	43→55	49→50	41	183/253/301	119	283	10	9	37%	8%	51	-1.7	202/277/372	170	283	20	12	34%	9%	79	+0.3	213/286/393	179	309	20	12	36%	9%	85	+0.5
✕Oliver Dunn 2022 · AA	24	39→47	44→50	53→55	45	189/273/309	120	297	11	14	38%	10%	62	-0.9	217/302/371	154	344	15	14	38%	10%	89	+1.0	212/288/350	139	311	14	25	34%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Jackson Cluff 2021 · A	24	39→29	42→45	51→60	39	193/259/298	104	285	9	12	34%	6%	53	-1.5	180/251/274	94	284	8	13	37%	7%	44	-2.1	181/273/314	133	265	15	28	35%	10%	61	-0.6
✕Daniel Cabrera 2023 · AA	24	40	45	51→45	41	205/253/327	122	266	12	7	28%	6%	56	-1.3	215/278/315	100	279	8	8	24%	8%	64	-0.8	217/300/282	65	283	2	8	22%	10%	64	-0.3
✕Devin Foyle 2021 · A	24	42→36	40→45	48→45	45	201/279/294	93	296	8	12	32%	9%	60	-1.0	209/277/348	139	270	16	8	28%	8%	73	-0.1	196/269/342	145	244	18	6	27%	8%	65	-0.4
✕Ryan Aguilar 2019 · A	24	34→40	38→45	51→50	40	170/234/250	80	268	6	6	37%	8%	29	-3.2	180/258/271	91	308	9	9	41%	8%	46	-2.0	180/274/287	107	300	13	12	40%	10%	54	-0.9
✕Michael Pérez 2017 · AA	24	38	40→50	43→40	42	187/244/278	90	253	7	4	28%	7%	40	-2.4	218/272/327	109	286	10	3	26%	7%	65	-0.7	221/281/340	119	284	13	0	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Nick Maton 2021 · AA	24	42	41→50	45	44	206/270/300	94	283	8	9	29%	8%	57	-1.2	211/291/339	128	285	12	7	28%	9%	77	+0.1	215/306/369	154	265	18	4	25%	10%	89	+0.6
✕Chase Strumpf 2022 · AA	24	42→36	43→50	48→45	44	203/282/318	115	297	11	7	33%	8%	68	-0.5	193/294/347	154	320	18	5	41%	11%	82	+0.5	177/286/336	158	296	20	3	43%	11%	72	-0.1
✕Cornelius Randolph 2021 · AA	24	43→48	41→45	46→45	42	209/269/304	95	294	8	9	30%	7%	58	-1.2	206/266/322	116	338	12	12	39%	7%	62	-0.9	194/257/314	120	296	15	15	37%	8%	53	-0.5
✕Nick Quintana 2022 · A	24	33→39	43→45	47→45	45	172/254/283	111	243	11	6	33%	9%	47	-1.9	188/273/293	105	265	11	5	31%	9%	58	-1.2	172/265/268	95	240	10	3	30%	10%	45	-1.0
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	39→36	44→40	55→50	44	196/275/315	119	256	11	15	27%	7%	64	-0.8	212/300/304	92	266	8	14	22%	9%	72	-0.2	211/311/283	71	261	6	15	19%	10%	69	-0.2