Chase Davis

CF Memphis Redbirds
Age 25 L/L 6'1" / 216 lbs AAA HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202422AA/A+/ASTL475.252/.352/.41712960—.196/.272/.313
202523AASTL494.242/.360/.35310972—.215/.308/.298
202624AAA/AA/ASTL374.230/.344/.410151372—.198/.280/.327
2027PROJ10% MLB25MLBSTL21.192/.278/.3000067-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB26MLBSTL88.195/.281/.3102270-0.0
Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Max EV97
Chase%62
Speed58
BB%54
K%33
Z-Con%25
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.9, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 93%
CompsDevin Foyle (age 25) · Shayne Fontana (age 25) · Justin Toerner (age 25)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†67
AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .278 / .300
PA21
HR0
K%33
BB%10
BABIP266
ISO53
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -8.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-8BATRUN: +0.7 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.6 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.30-0.3WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.30.02728
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202321 APalm Beach Cardinals — 131104 22600 25341 30 212369269638 58310 2619 308 38 — — — — — —
202422 AASpringfield Cardinals — 3128 7201 350 30 250323429751 179273 1610 334 63 — — — — — —
202422 A+Peoria Chiefs — 129113 34613 13293 11 301388451839 150383 2210 376 95 — — — — — —
202422 APalm Beach Cardinals — 315267 622108 40794 51 232341401742 169293 2513 331 45 — — — — — —
202523 AASpringfield Cardinals — 494414 10016010 6714610 92 242360353713 111345 3014 329 72 — — — — — —
202624 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 200175 40616 22521 41 229318377695 149286 2611 312 63 — — — — — —
202624 AASpringfield Cardinals — 156130 30408 26380 91 231359446805 215262 2417 360 78 — — — — — —
202624 APalm Beach Cardinals — 1812 3001 640 00 2505005001.000 250286 2233 449 116 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202321 A MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 131112 17400 17491 30 152269188457 36263 3713 224 38 — — — — — —
202422 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 3130 7201 160 30 233258400658 167251 193 261 63 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLEPeoria Chiefs — 129116 30512 10373 11 259333371704 112357 298 309 95 — — — — — —
202422 A MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 315281 471406 261114 51 167248281529 114235 358 234 45 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 494433 931507 4817910 92 215308298605 83339 3610 274 72 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 200181 37514 16621 41 204273309582 105279 318 262 63 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 156139 26306 17460 91 187276338614 151238 2911 284 78 — — — — — —
202624 A MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 1814 3001 450 00 214389429817 214247 2822 339 116 — — — — — —
202321 A MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 131112 17400 17491 30 152269188457 36266 3713 224 38 — — — — — —
202321 A RAWPalm Beach Cardinals — 131104 22600 25341 30 212369269638 58310 2619 308 38 — — — — — —
202422 A MLE3 teams — 475427 842119 371547 92 197272314586 117280 328 256 59 — — — — — —
202422 A RAW3 teams — 475408 10329112 561137 92 252352417769 164317 2412 344 59 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 494433 931507 4817910 92 215308298605 83344 3610 274 72 — — — — — —
202523 AA RAWSpringfield Cardinals — 494414 10016010 6714610 92 242360353713 111345 3014 329 72 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLE3 teams — 374334 679111 371141 132 201282332615 132265 3010 275 72 — — — — — —
202624 AAA RAW3 teams — 374317 7310115 54941 132 230344410754 180276 2514 339 72 — — — — — —
202321 A MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 131112 17400 17491 30 152269188457 36263 3713 224 38 — — — — — —
202422 A MLE3 teams — 475428 842119 371547 92 196272313585 117269 328 256 59 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 494433 931507 4817910 92 215308298605 83339 3610 274 72 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLE3 teams — 374333 679111 371141 132 201282333616 132260 3010 275 72 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 A MLE3 teams — 475428 842119 371547 92 196272313585 117269 328 256 59 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 494433 931507 4817910 92 215308298605 83339 3610 274 72 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLE3 teams — 374333 679111 371141 132 201282333616 132260 3010 275 72 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLESTL 10% 380336 651019 371204 81 192278305583 113265 3210 267 67 -15 +1 +1 +1 +8 -0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXSTL 10% 2119 3100 270 00 192278300579 109266 3310 265 67 -1 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLESTL 35% 252223 44716 24783 51 196282315596 119266 3110 272 70 -9 +1 +1 +1 +5 -0.1
202826 MLB CTXSTL 35% 8879 15302 8271 20 195281310591 115268 319 270 70 -3 +0 +0 +0 +2 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 8879 15302 8271 20 190273304577 114260 319 270 66 -3 +0 +0 +0 +2 -0.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650584 11122015 591997 150 190272305577 115259 319 270 66 -23 +3 +2 +2 +14 -0.2
Career— MLE — 19361715 34162338 18364024 438 199285305590 106289 339 265 66 -17 +1 +1 +2 +10 -0.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650576 11521113 612158 143 200285307593 108290 339 265 66 -24 +1 +2 +2 +14 -0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 200 PAwOBA .307 → .262 (−45)K% 26.0% → 31.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.00%÷1.000×1.200——31.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.00%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0337.84%
HBP% /PA0.50%—×0.940—×1.0330.49%
Singles /BIP21.95%÷1.000×0.930×1.050×1.03322.14%
Doubles /BIP4.88%÷1.000×0.830×1.050×1.0334.39%
Triples /BIP0.81%÷1.000×0.970×1.050×1.0330.86%
Home runs /BIP4.88%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0333.53%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .307 → .262; ISO .149 → .115; BABIP .286 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 156 PAwOBA .349 → .284 (−65)K% 24.4% → 29.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.36%÷1.000×1.220——29.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.03%÷1.000×0.700—×0.99811.20%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.870—×0.9980.00%
Singles /BIP19.57%÷1.000×0.920×1.023×0.99818.38%
Doubles /BIP4.35%÷1.000×0.840×1.023×0.9983.73%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.940×1.023×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP8.70%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9986.94%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .349 → .284; ISO .215 → .174; BABIP .262 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 18 PAwOBA .439 → .339 (−100)K% 22.2% → 30.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.22%÷1.000×1.360——30.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA33.33%÷1.000×0.690—×0.97022.31%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×0.9700.00%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.000×0.920—×0.97022.31%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.830—×0.9700.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910—×0.9700.00%
Home runs /BIP12.50%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9709.70%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .439 → .339; ISO .250 → .207; BABIP .286 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 494 PAwOBA .323 → .274 (−49)K% 29.6% → 36.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.55%÷0.992×1.220——36.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.56%÷0.987×0.700—×1.0129.73%
HBP% /PA2.02%—×0.870—×1.0121.78%
Singles /BIP27.61%÷0.966×0.920×1.036×1.01227.59%
Doubles /BIP5.97%÷0.916×0.840×1.036×1.0125.74%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.940×1.036×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP3.73%÷1.105×0.800—×1.0122.73%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 93, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .323 → .274; ISO .111 → .087; BABIP .345 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 APalm Beach Cardinals · 315 PAwOBA .325 → .234 (−90)K% 25.1% → 35.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.08%÷0.968×1.360——35.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.06%÷0.999×0.690—×0.9908.25%
HBP% /PA1.27%—×0.780—×0.9900.98%
Singles /BIP17.55%÷1.040×0.920×0.996×0.99015.31%
Doubles /BIP11.17%÷1.153×0.830×0.996×0.9907.93%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.946×0.910×0.996×0.9900.00%
Home runs /BIP4.26%÷1.036×0.800—×0.9903.25%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 108, 2B 131, 3B 89, K 94, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .325 → .234; ISO .169 → .116; BABIP .293 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Peoria Chiefs · 129 PAwOBA .367 → .309 (−58)K% 22.5% → 28.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.48%÷1.006×1.270——28.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.08%÷0.930×0.710—×0.9987.68%
HBP% /PA2.33%—×0.790—×0.9981.83%
Singles /BIP28.57%÷0.995×0.920×1.050×0.99827.69%
Doubles /BIP7.14%÷1.000×0.810×1.050×0.9986.06%
Triples /BIP1.19%÷1.150×0.850×1.050×0.9980.92%
Home runs /BIP3.57%÷0.993×0.800—×0.9982.87%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 101, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .367 → .309; ISO .150 → .117; BABIP .383 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASpringfield Cardinals · 31 PAwOBA .313 → .261 (−52)K% 16.1% → 20.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.13%÷0.943×1.220——20.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.45%÷0.992×0.700—×1.0274.67%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.870—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP17.39%÷0.998×0.920—×1.02716.46%
Doubles /BIP8.70%÷0.940×0.840—×1.0277.98%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.940—×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP4.35%÷1.386×0.800—×1.0272.58%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 177, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 89, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .313 → .261; ISO .179 → .130; BABIP .273 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 APalm Beach Cardinals · 131 PAwOBA .304 → .224 (−80)K% 26.0% → 37.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.95%÷0.950×1.360——37.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA19.08%÷1.000×0.690——13.16%
HBP% /PA0.76%—×0.780——0.60%
Singles /BIP22.86%÷0.998×0.920×0.950—20.01%
Doubles /BIP8.57%÷1.007×0.830×0.950—6.71%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.023×0.910×0.950—0.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.010×0.800——0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 100, 2B 101, 3B 105, K 90, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .304 → .224; ISO .058 → .041; BABIP .310 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).