Chase DavisOF
Springfield Cardinals
Age 24
L/L
6'1" / 216 lbs
AA
HR -7%K -4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.4 · 2029
wRC+†69
AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .282 / .301
PA320
HR6
SB5
K%36
BB%9
MLB%2%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
30↗32
PWR
45↗50
SPD
50→50
FLD
45↗52
EYE
54↗60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2029
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $3M | $-0.9M | -$4M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 131 | 110 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | .155 | .285 | .200 | .485 | .045 | .279 | 38 | 15 | .233 | 37 | -9 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 22 | A | 3 teams | 475 | 424 | 80 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 40 | 164 | 7 | 9 | 2 | .189 | .270 | .304 | .574 | .116 | .278 | 35 | 8 | .254 | 53 | -25 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +13 | -1.4 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 494 | 434 | 88 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 47 | 192 | 10 | 9 | 2 | .203 | .295 | .283 | .579 | .081 | .340 | 39 | 10 | .267 | 63 | -21 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +14 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 75 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .185 | .293 | .354 | .647 | .169 | .290 | 41 | 13 | .283 | 75 | -2 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 245 | 215 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | .195 | .288 | .316 | .604 | .121 | .298 | 37 | 10 | .273 | 67 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +7 | -0.3 |
| TOT | 24 | MLB | STL | 320 | 280 | 54 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 122 | 3 | 5 | 2 | .193 | .289 | .325 | .614 | .132 | .300 | 38 | 11 | .275 | 69 | -11 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +9 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB 11% | STL | 370 | 321 | 66 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 41 | 111 | 5 | 6 | 2 | .206 | .305 | .333 | .639 | .128 | .278 | 30 | 11 | .292 | 81 | -8 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB 26% | STL | 407 | 354 | 74 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 45 | 119 | 5 | 7 | 2 | .209 | .307 | .345 | .652 | .136 | .280 | 29 | 11 | .297 | 86 | -7 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB 44% | STL | 420 | 365 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 47 | 122 | 5 | 7 | 2 | .211 | .309 | .345 | .655 | .134 | .281 | 29 | 11 | .299 | 87 | -6 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +12 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB 53% | STL | 425 | 370 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 47 | 124 | 5 | 7 | 2 | .211 | .308 | .343 | .651 | .132 | .281 | 29 | 11 | .298 | 86 | -7 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB 64% | STL | 420 | 365 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 47 | 124 | 5 | 6 | 2 | .211 | .309 | .345 | .655 | .134 | .280 | 30 | 11 | .296 | 85 | -7 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +12 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB 73% | STL | 414 | 360 | 75 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 46 | 123 | 5 | 6 | 2 | .208 | .307 | .342 | .648 | .133 | .278 | 30 | 11 | .293 | 82 | -8 | +0 | -2 | -2 | +12 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB 91% | STL | 401 | 348 | 72 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 45 | 121 | 5 | 5 | 1 | .207 | .307 | .336 | .643 | .129 | .277 | 30 | 11 | .289 | 80 | -9 | +1 | -3 | -2 | +11 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | STL | 384 | 333 | 67 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 43 | 118 | 5 | 4 | 0 | .201 | .302 | .324 | .626 | .123 | .275 | 31 | 11 | .285 | 76 | -10 | +1 | -3 | -2 | +11 | -0.5 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | STL | 355 | 309 | 60 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 111 | 4 | 3 | 0 | .194 | .293 | .307 | .600 | .113 | .273 | 31 | 11 | .279 | 72 | -11 | +1 | -4 | -2 | +10 | -0.7 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | STL | 311 | 270 | 52 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 100 | 4 | 3 | 0 | .193 | .292 | .304 | .596 | .111 | .271 | 32 | 11 | .273 | 67 | -12 | +1 | -5 | -2 | +9 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 5252 | 4578 | 925 | 172 | 9 | 120 | 565 | 1670 | 69 | 79 | 18 | .202 | .299 | .322 | .621 | .120 | .286 | 32 | 11 | .283 | 75 | -150 | +9 | -19 | -32 | +149 | -4.4 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 567 | 114 | 21 | 1 | 15 | 70 | 207 | 9 | 10 | 2 | .201 | .299 | .321 | .620 | .120 | .284 | 32 | 11 | .283 | 75 | -19 | +1 | -2 | -4 | +18 | -0.5 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 131 | 104 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 0 | .212 | .369 | .269 | .638 | .058 | .310 | 26 | 19 | .308 | 94 | -1 | +1 | — | — | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 31 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .250 | .323 | .429 | .751 | .179 | .273 | 16 | 10 | .334 | 114 | +0 | +1 | — | — | +1 | 0.2 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 129 | 113 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | .301 | .388 | .451 | .839 | .150 | .383 | 22 | 10 | .376 | 146 | +7 | -0 | — | — | +4 | 1.0 |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 315 | 267 | 62 | 21 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 79 | 4 | 5 | 1 | .232 | .341 | .401 | .742 | .169 | .293 | 25 | 13 | .331 | 112 | +4 | +1 | — | — | +9 | 1.4 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 494 | 414 | 100 | 16 | 0 | 10 | 67 | 146 | 10 | 9 | 2 | .242 | .360 | .353 | .713 | .111 | .345 | 30 | 14 | .329 | 110 | +5 | +1 | — | — | +14 | 2.1 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Chase Davis (OGILVIE) | 24 | 30→32 | 45→50 | 50 | 60 | .193/.282/.301 | .107 | .299 | 6 | 5 | 36% | 9% | 65 | -0.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Gabe Matthews 2022 · AAA |
24 | 42→41 | 44→50 | 50→40 | 41 | .203/.279/.321 | .119 | .305 | 11 | 8 | 35% | 8% | 68 | -0.5 | .196/.285/.334 | .138 | .297 | 16 | 4 | 37% | 9% | 75 | -0.0 | .184/.284/.322 | .138 | .277 | 17 | 2 | 37% | 9% | 69 | -0.3 |
|
✕Drew Robinson 2016 · AAA |
24 | 36→41 | 48→55 | 48→50 | 44 | .188/.265/.331 | .144 | .271 | 15 | 11 | 35% | 9% | 65 | -0.7 | .204/.278/.369 | .165 | .296 | 18 | 13 | 35% | 9% | 79 | +0.3 | .207/.288/.362 | .155 | .320 | 17 | 12 | 37% | 10% | 78 | +0.1 |
|
✕Matthew Sweeney 2012 · AA |
24 | 36→41 | 44→50 | 49→45 | 41 | .183/.249/.300 | .117 | .266 | 12 | 4 | 34% | 7% | 50 | -1.8 | .198/.255/.308 | .110 | .279 | 10 | 6 | 31% | 7% | 53 | -1.5 | .212/.252/.322 | .110 | .274 | 6 | 0 | 24% | 5% | 52 | -0.3 |
|
✕Oliver Dunn 2022 · AA |
24 | 39→47 | 44→50 | 52→55 | 45 | .189/.271/.304 | .115 | .294 | 11 | 13 | 37% | 10% | 59 | -1.1 | .219/.303/.372 | .153 | .347 | 16 | 14 | 37% | 10% | 90 | +1.0 | .205/.288/.342 | .137 | .315 | 13 | 20 | 36% | 9% | 73 | -0.1 |
|
✕Mickey Hall 2009 · AA |
24 | 39→43 | 46→50 | 49→45 | 42 | .192/.266/.324 | .131 | .301 | 12 | 7 | 38% | 8% | 63 | -0.9 | .197/.274/.312 | .115 | .289 | 11 | 8 | 33% | 9% | 63 | -0.9 | .167/.252/.246 | .079 | .237 | 7 | 8 | 30% | 10% | 36 | -1.4 |
|
✕Shayne Fontana 2022 · AA |
25 | 41 | 42→45 | 48→55 | 46 | .197/.276/.303 | .106 | .284 | 9 | 9 | 32% | 9% | 61 | -1.0 | .215/.297/.325 | .110 | .300 | 11 | 14 | 30% | 9% | 76 | +0.1 | .222/.305/.326 | .104 | .296 | 11 | 19 | 27% | 8% | 77 | +0.1 |
|
✕Chase Strumpf 2022 · AA |
24 | 42→35 | 44→50 | 48→45 | 44 | .203/.282/.321 | .118 | .296 | 11 | 7 | 33% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .196/.293/.355 | .159 | .317 | 19 | 5 | 41% | 10% | 83 | +0.6 | .180/.284/.345 | .165 | .293 | 21 | 3 | 42% | 11% | 73 | -0.1 |
|
✕Mike Papi 2017 · AA |
24 | 39→47 | 44→45 | 44→45 | 48 | .193/.275/.309 | .117 | .272 | 11 | 5 | 31% | 10% | 63 | -0.8 | .217/.294/.333 | .116 | .291 | 12 | 5 | 27% | 9% | 76 | +0.1 | .219/.297/.324 | .105 | .288 | 11 | 4 | 26% | 9% | 74 | -0.0 |
|
✕Isan Díaz 2019 · AAA |
23 | 39→40 | 46→55 | 48→45 | 43 | .198/.269/.330 | .132 | .286 | 14 | 10 | 34% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .209/.280/.354 | .145 | .285 | 17 | 7 | 31% | 8% | 76 | +0.1 | .204/.284/.367 | .164 | .263 | 21 | 5 | 30% | 9% | 75 | +0.0 |
|
✕Nick Maton 2021 · AA |
24 | 42→41 | 41→50 | 45 | 43 | .206/.265/.304 | .098 | .278 | 8 | 8 | 28% | 7% | 56 | -1.3 | .212/.292/.338 | .126 | .286 | 12 | 7 | 28% | 9% | 77 | +0.1 | .214/.305/.368 | .154 | .264 | 18 | 4 | 25% | 10% | 88 | +0.6 |
|
●Ryan Schimpf 2012 · A |
24 | 38→39 | 46→60 | 51→45 | 40 | .193/.263/.329 | .136 | .276 | 13 | 8 | 33% | 7% | 63 | -0.9 | .199/.276/.370 | .171 | .267 | 20 | 5 | 32% | 8% | 79 | +0.3 | .201/.284/.419 | .218 | .235 | 28 | 2 | 28% | 9% | 91 | +0.9 |
|
✕Caleb Roberts 2023 · AA |
23 | 40→43 | 42→50 | 50 | 42 | .194/.271/.297 | .103 | .298 | 9 | 12 | 36% | 8% | 58 | -1.2 | .202/.279/.332 | .130 | .296 | 12 | 11 | 33% | 8% | 70 | -0.3 | .195/.272/.328 | .134 | .276 | 13 | 10 | 32% | 8% | 64 | -0.6 |
|
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2021 · AA |
24 | 42→43 | 48→55 | 51→50 | 36 | .214/.257/.351 | .137 | .291 | 16 | 9 | 32% | 5% | 66 | -0.6 | .221/.282/.380 | .159 | .297 | 19 | 9 | 31% | 7% | 84 | +0.6 | .211/.283/.380 | .168 | .276 | 21 | 6 | 31% | 8% | 81 | +0.3 |
|
✕Brian O'Grady 2016 · A |
24 | 40→39 | 43→60 | 54→50 | 48 | .198/.276/.315 | .117 | .263 | 10 | 14 | 28% | 9% | 64 | -0.8 | .194/.274/.318 | .124 | .270 | 12 | 14 | 31% | 9% | 65 | -0.7 | .210/.274/.401 | .191 | .276 | 23 | 15 | 32% | 7% | 84 | +0.5 |
|
✕John Rave 2022 · A |
24 | 42→43 | 46→50 | 53→50 | 39 | .205/.270/.332 | .127 | .311 | 15 | 13 | 37% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .215/.283/.352 | .137 | .306 | 16 | 15 | 33% | 8% | 77 | +0.1 | .214/.283/.361 | .147 | .282 | 16 | 17 | 29% | 8% | 76 | +0.0 |
|
✕DaShawn Keirsey Jr. 2022 · A |
25 | 35→45 | 45→50 | 53→60 | 40 | .180/.251/.302 | .122 | .279 | 13 | 14 | 38% | 8% | 50 | -1.7 | .231/.283/.350 | .119 | .327 | 11 | 31 | 31% | 6% | 76 | +0.0 | .245/.299/.367 | .122 | .338 | 11 | 36 | 29% | 6% | 83 | +0.5 |
|
✕Skye Bolt 2019 · AA |
25 | 40→39 | 46→50 | 50 | 41 | .201/.262/.333 | .132 | .280 | 13 | 11 | 32% | 7% | 63 | -0.9 | .212/.276/.351 | .139 | .302 | 14 | 12 | 33% | 8% | 73 | -0.1 | .234/.302/.369 | .135 | .310 | 15 | 12 | 28% | 8% | 86 | +0.3 |
|
✕Kody Clemens 2021 · AA |
25 | 40→43 | 44→60 | 51→45 | 43 | .202/.264/.324 | .123 | .275 | 11 | 9 | 30% | 7% | 62 | -0.9 | .208/.262/.373 | .165 | .263 | 20 | 8 | 29% | 6% | 73 | -0.1 | .216/.278/.416 | .200 | .247 | 26 | 8 | 25% | 7% | 88 | +0.6 |
|
✕Nicky Delmonico 2016 · AA |
24 | 42→47 | 46→55 | 45 | 42 | .211/.269/.345 | .134 | .290 | 12 | 7 | 31% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .233/.293/.391 | .158 | .293 | 17 | 5 | 25% | 7% | 91 | +1.1 | .233/.301/.393 | .161 | .284 | 18 | 4 | 24% | 8% | 92 | +0.9 |
|
✕Justin Toerner 2022 · AAA |
25 | 39 | 44→45 | 45→50 | 44 | .194/.280/.302 | .108 | .290 | 12 | 9 | 35% | 9% | 64 | -0.8 | .186/.282/.297 | .111 | .284 | 12 | 10 | 36% | 10% | 64 | -0.8 | .157/.270/.260 | .103 | .237 | 12 | 12 | 35% | 11% | 49 | -0.8 |