Chase Davis — OGILVIE

Chase DavisCF Memphis Redbirds

Age 24 L/L 6'1" / 216 lbs AAA HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION346 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP256

ISO92

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 32 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT32

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	21	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	131	104	22	6	0	0	25	34	1	3	0	212	369	269	638	58	310	26	19	308	95	-1	+1	—	—	+3	0.3
2024	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	31	28	7	2	0	1	3	5	0	3	0	250	323	429	751	179	273	16	10	334	112	+0	+1	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	22	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	129	113	34	6	1	3	13	29	3	1	1	301	388	451	839	150	383	22	10	376	141	+6	-0	—	—	+3	0.9
2024	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	315	267	62	21	0	8	40	79	4	5	1	232	341	401	742	169	293	25	13	331	110	+4	+1	—	—	+7	1.2
2025	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	494	414	100	16	0	10	67	146	10	9	2	242	360	353	713	111	345	30	14	329	109	+5	+1	—	—	+11	1.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	131	110	17	5	0	0	19	51	1	3	0	155	285	200	485	45	273	39	15	232	43	-9	+1	—	—	+3	-0.6
2024	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	31	30	7	2	0	1	1	6	0	3	0	233	258	400	658	167	250	19	3	258	61	-1	+1	—	—	+1	-0.0
2024	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	129	116	29	5	1	2	10	39	3	1	1	250	326	362	688	112	356	30	8	303	91	-1	-0	—	—	+3	0.1
2024	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	315	278	47	15	0	6	29	116	4	5	1	169	257	288	545	119	250	37	9	247	53	-18	+1	—	—	+7	-1.0
2025	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	494	434	94	15	0	7	47	179	10	9	2	217	308	300	607	83	342	36	10	274	72	-17	+1	—	—	+11	-0.5
2023	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	131	110	17	5	0	0	19	51	1	3	0	155	285	200	485	45	283	39	15	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	131	104	22	6	0	0	25	34	1	3	0	212	369	269	638	58	310	26	19	308	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	475	424	83	22	1	9	40	161	7	9	2	196	276	316	592	120	287	34	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A RAW	3 teams	—	475	408	103	29	1	12	56	113	7	9	2	252	352	417	769	164	317	24	12	344	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	494	434	94	15	0	7	47	179	10	9	2	217	308	300	607	83	347	36	10	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	—	494	414	100	16	0	10	67	146	10	9	2	242	360	353	713	111	345	30	14	329	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	131	110	17	5	0	0	19	51	1	3	0	155	285	200	485	45	273	39	15	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	475	425	83	22	1	9	40	161	7	9	2	195	276	315	591	120	279	34	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	494	434	94	15	0	7	47	179	10	9	2	217	308	300	607	83	342	36	10	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	131	110	17	5	0	0	19	51	1	3	0	155	285	200	485	45	273	39	15	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	475	425	83	22	1	9	40	161	7	9	2	195	276	315	591	120	279	34	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	494	434	94	15	0	7	47	179	10	9	2	217	308	300	607	83	342	36	10	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	STL	—	346	310	61	8	1	10	34	104	1	12	2	197	278	326	604	129	259	30	10	267	67	-14	+2	+0	+1	+7	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A RAW	STL	—	18	12	3	0	0	1	6	4	0	0	0	250	500	500	1.000	250	286	22	33	449	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	AA RAW	STL	—	156	130	30	4	0	8	26	38	0	9	1	231	359	446	805	215	262	24	17	360	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	AAA RAW	STL	—	172	153	34	5	1	4	17	43	1	3	1	222	304	346	650	124	280	25	10	295	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	24	AAA MLE	STL	10%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		256	33	11	259	62	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	24	MLB CTX	STL	10%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						256	0	0	249	62	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	24	MLB A+C	STL	—	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							0	0	249	67	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	24	AAA MLE	STL	—	355	318	62	8	1	10	35	107	1	12	2	195	277	321	598	126	257	30	10	267	67	-14	+2	-0	+1	+8	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	STL	35%	370	329	64	10	1	9	35	112	3	8	1	195	278	313	591	119	260	30	9	270	69	-14	+1	-0	+1	+8	-0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	46%	407	362	73	12	1	11	38	121	4	9	2	202	285	331	616	130	263	30	9	277	73	-13	+1	-0	+1	+9	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	50%	420	373	75	12	1	11	40	123	4	9	2	201	285	327	612	126	265	29	10	279	75	-12	+1	-0	+1	+9	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	52%	425	377	76	13	1	11	41	125	4	8	2	202	287	329	616	127	265	29	10	279	75	-13	+1	-1	+2	+9	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	STL	35%	129	115	22	4	0	3	12	39	1	3	1	191	273	304	578	113	259	30	9	260	69	-5	+0	-0	+0	+3	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	46%	189	167	33	5	0	5	18	56	2	4	1	198	283	317	601	120	262	30	10	266	73	-6	+0	-0	+1	+4	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	50%	210	186	37	6	1	5	20	62	2	4	1	199	284	323	606	124	264	30	10	268	75	-6	+0	-0	+1	+5	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	52%	221	196	40	7	1	5	21	65	2	4	1	204	288	327	614	122	264	29	10	268	75	-7	+0	-0	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	750	665	132	22	2	18	71	222	7	15	4	198	283	319	601	120	266	30	9	266	70	-24	+1	-0	+3	+16	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	115	19	2	16	62	192	6	13	3	200	284	323	607	123	267	30	10	266	70	-20	+1	-0	+2	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2731	2417	483	89	5	58	261	875	33	55	11	200	287	313	599	113	283	32	10	271	70	-52	+4	-1	+6	+35	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	115	21	1	14	62	208	8	13	3	200	287	313	600	113	283	32	10	271	70	-21	+2	-0	+2	+14	-0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.2	781	20	16	200	281	325	-4	+2	-0.7	-0.3
/162	664	17	14	-3.7	+1.9	-0.6	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Chase Davis (OGILVIE)	24	30→32	45→50	50	60	185/269/291	106	256	7	8	31%	9%	62	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Matthew Sweeney 2012 · AA	24	34→40	43→50	49→45	41	177/244/286	109	256	11	4	34%	7%	50	-2.3	202/259/311	109	280	9	6	30%	7%	61	-1.5	212/252/322	109	275	6	0	24%	5%	57	-0.4
✕Shayne Fontana 2022 · AA	25	41	42→45	48→55	46	196/275/302	106	285	8	8	32%	9%	65	-1.2	214/296/317	103	297	10	14	29%	8%	76	-0.4	217/300/310	94	291	10	19	27%	8%	75	-0.3
✕Mike Papi 2017 · AA	24	39→47	44→45	44→45	48	193/275/312	119	272	11	5	31%	10%	68	-1.0	215/291/324	109	288	10	5	27%	9%	76	-0.4	216/293/312	97	283	9	4	25%	9%	73	-0.3
✕Brian O'Grady 2016 · A	24	39→38	43→55	54→50	48	196/273/312	116	263	10	14	28%	9%	67	-1.1	193/273/316	123	270	11	13	31%	9%	68	-1.0	208/271/384	177	275	20	15	31%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Oliver Dunn 2022 · AA	24	39→46	44→45	53→55	46	189/273/305	116	294	11	14	37%	10%	65	-1.2	219/303/367	148	341	14	14	36%	10%	91	+0.6	202/286/331	129	310	11	20	35%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Grant Witherspoon 2021 · A	24	40→46	40→50	52→50	40	196/246/290	94	274	8	13	31%	6%	51	-2.3	218/273/365	147	298	17	13	31%	7%	78	-0.3	213/273/363	150	289	18	14	32%	7%	75	-0.3
✕Tanner Allen 2022 · A	24	40	42→45	44→45	43	200/253/300	100	251	9	7	24%	6%	56	-1.9	203/258/301	98	251	9	7	22%	6%	58	-1.7	200/259/296	96	246	9	7	22%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Chase Strumpf 2022 · AA	24	42→37	43→50	48→45	46	203/285/317	113	292	10	7	32%	9%	72	-0.7	194/293/340	146	311	17	5	39%	10%	82	-0.0	178/283/325	147	289	18	3	41%	11%	72	-0.5
✕Conner Capel 2021 · AAA	24	43→45	43→45	47→55	41	213/262/320	106	283	10	11	28%	6%	63	-1.3	217/281/341	124	273	13	15	24%	8%	76	-0.4	213/285/332	119	269	12	19	24%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Caleb Roberts 2023 · AA	23	40→46	42→50	50	42	193/272/298	105	296	9	12	35%	8%	63	-1.3	208/283/336	128	298	11	11	32%	8%	76	-0.4	203/278/333	131	282	12	10	30%	8%	71	-0.6
✕Ryan Aguilar 2019 · A	24	36→41	39→45	51→50	41	175/239/258	83	272	6	6	36%	8%	41	-3.0	185/264/279	94	307	9	9	39%	9%	56	-1.9	185/281/292	107	300	12	12	39%	10%	63	-0.9
✕CJ Alexander 2021 · AA	25	41→44	39→55	49→50	45	199/267/285	87	290	7	9	32%	8%	58	-1.7	195/236/347	152	268	19	15	34%	5%	61	-1.5	211/254/385	174	262	23	9	29%	5%	74	-0.4
✕Drew Robinson 2016 · AAA	24	37→42	48→55	48→50	45	191/268/335	144	270	15	12	34%	9%	70	-0.8	207/281/371	164	300	18	12	35%	9%	83	+0.1	208/288/362	155	321	16	12	38%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Daniel Cabrera 2023 · AA	24	41→42	43→45	51→45	42	205/253/316	111	265	10	7	27%	6%	59	-1.6	216/281/310	94	276	7	8	23%	8%	68	-1.0	219/307/282	63	277	2	8	19%	11%	71	-0.4
✕Michael Pérez 2017 · AA	24	39	40→50	43→40	43	191/247/282	91	257	7	4	28%	7%	49	-2.4	220/274/328	108	287	10	3	25%	7%	70	-0.9	222/282/338	116	285	12	0	25%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Nick Quintana 2022 · A	24	33→40	43→45	47→45	45	171/253/277	106	242	11	6	33%	9%	52	-2.2	190/275/295	105	266	10	5	30%	9%	64	-1.3	176/269/273	97	244	10	3	30%	10%	54	-1.0
✕Nick Maton 2021 · AA	24	43→42	41→50	45	44	209/271/304	95	284	8	9	28%	7%	63	-1.3	210/292/333	123	284	11	7	28%	9%	78	-0.3	208/300/350	141	261	16	4	25%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	177/255/257	79	269	8	14	35%	9%	48	-2.5	207/287/299	92	295	7	12	29%	9%	69	-0.9	212/301/305	93	294	5	13	27%	10%	75	-0.3
✕Chris Meyers 2023 · A	24	42→45	44→50	51→40	43	210/272/331	121	280	12	9	28%	7%	70	-0.8	225/283/368	143	295	17	5	29%	6%	83	+0.1	222/283/366	144	287	17	3	28%	6%	80	-0.1
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	40→38	45→40	55→50	46	202/283/328	125	257	12	15	26%	8%	75	-0.5	216/303/308	92	269	8	14	21%	9%	78	-0.3	215/312/285	70	264	6	15	19%	9%	74	-0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps