Tyler Schlaffer

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

Scout OFP40ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	21	15	78	5.29	4.08	19.2%	11.5%	—	K 14.5% · BB 13.3% · FIP 5.08
2025	24	MIX2 levels	21	21	105	3.53	3.59	23.8%	10.7%	—	K 18.7% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.41
2026	25	AACHC	31	12	86	4.20	3.04	27.5%	12.0%	—	K 22.3% · BB 13.2% · FIP 3.79
2027PROJ	26	MLBCHC	12	12	70	4.92	4.92	20.2%	13.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBCHC	6	6	35	4.82	4.84	20.3%	13.3%	0.0
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBCHC	9	9	54	4.82	4.86	20.3%	13.0%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control43Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsDavid Lebron (age 25) · Nick Pasquale (age 26) · Jackson Finley (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%20.2%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%6.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4545

CTRL3545

CMD4040

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 2	3	0	5	24	5	1	0	0%	1.8	20.8%	4.2%	16.7%	0.0%	3.38	1.87	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs 2	3	0	5	24	5	1	0	0%	1.8	20.8%	4.2%	16.7%	0.0%	3.38	1.79	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	55	247	55	22	7	100%	4.6	16.1%	10.7%	5.5%	3.8%	4.58	5.17	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	55	247	55	22	7	100%	4.6	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	2.8%	4.58	3.95	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	80	330	86	33	11	100%	4.2	20.0%	12.1%	7.8%	4.4%	3.81	5.39	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	80	330	86	33	11	100%	4.2	26.1%	10.0%	16.1%	3.3%	3.81	3.97	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	15	78	349	67	40	7	71%	3.7	14.5%	13.3%	1.2%	2.8%	5.29	5.08	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	15	78	349	67	40	7	71%	3.7	14.5%	13.3%	1.2%	2.8%	5.29	5.08	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	15	78	349	67	40	7	71%	3.7	19.2%	11.5%	7.7%	2.0%	5.29	4.08	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	105	429	102	46	9	100%	5.0	18.7%	12.1%	6.6%	2.5%	3.53	4.41	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	105	429	102	46	9	100%	5.0	18.7%	12.1%	6.6%	2.5%	3.53	4.41	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	105	429	102	46	9	100%	5.0	23.8%	10.7%	13.1%	2.1%	3.53	3.59	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	31	12	86	367	101	44	5	39%	2.8	22.3%	13.2%	9.1%	1.6%	4.20	3.79	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	31	12	86	367	101	44	5	39%	2.8	22.3%	13.2%	9.1%	1.6%	4.20	3.79	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	31	12	86	367	101	44	5	39%	2.8	27.5%	12.0%	15.5%	1.4%	4.20	3.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CHC	12	12	70	296	60	41	7	100%	5.8	20.2%	13.8%	6.4%	2.5%	4.92	4.92	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	93	392	80	52	10	100%	6.2	20.3%	13.3%	7.1%	2.6%	4.87	4.89	+0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	90	380	77	49	10	100%	6.0	20.3%	13.0%	7.3%	2.8%	4.88	4.92	-0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	86	363	73	47	11	100%	6.1	20.2%	13.0%	7.2%	2.9%	4.95	5.02	-0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	81	341	68	45	11	100%	6.2	19.9%	13.1%	6.8%	3.1%	5.08	5.18	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	35	148	30	20	4	100%	5.8	20.3%	13.3%	7.1%	2.5%	4.82	4.84	+0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	9	9	54	228	46	30	6	100%	6.0	20.3%	13.0%	7.3%	2.7%	4.82	4.86	-0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	61	258	52	33	7	100%	6.1	20.2%	13.0%	7.2%	2.8%	4.89	4.96	-0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	63	266	53	35	8	100%	6.3	19.9%	13.1%	6.8%	3.0%	5.02	5.12	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	35	213	898	181	117	25	100%	6.1	20.2%	13.1%	7.1%	2.8%	4.90	4.58	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	170	110	24	100%	6.0	20.2%	13.1%	7.1%	2.8%	4.90	4.58	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		107	79	409	1746	323	214	50	74%	3.8	18.5%	12.3%	6.3%	2.9%	4.20	4.67	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	39	200	853	158	105	25	74%	3.8	18.5%	12.3%	6.3%	2.9%	4.20	4.67	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Schlaffer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	20.2%	13.8%	2.5%	—	4.94	20.3%	7.2%	269	+0.02	—	—	—
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	85
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	84
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	80
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	79
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	78
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	78
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	78
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	78
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	78
Bryce Conley R 2021 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	17.9%	12.2%	2.2%	.285	4.22	16.4%	5.3%	48	-0.09	4.22	560	77
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	77
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	77
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	77
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	77
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	76
André Rienzo R 2014 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP-	5.13	16.3%	10.6%	3.8%	.324	4.13	17.5%	4.8%	171	-1.00	3.53	321	76
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	76
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	76
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	76
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	84	20.2%	13.2%	1.08	4.94
Red Witt ('57-'62, 0 WAR*)	1.1	57	22.3%*	12.5%*	1.08*	4.77*
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Jake Wade ('36-'46, -1 WAR*)	3.3	84	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.08*	5.03*
Victor Zambrano ('07)	3.5	101	16.6%	12.7%	0.99	4.64
Robinson Tejeda ('11)	2.2	74	19.1%	12.6%	0.96	4.42
Steven Brault ('22)	1.8	59	18.8%	11.3%	0.97	4.73