Jacob Melton

CF Durham Bulls

Age 26 L/L 6'2" / 208 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2030 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAAD6040-MANROOKIEArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	23	AAHOU	251	.248/.305/.442	10	19	78	—	.222/.269/.380
2025	24	MLBHOU	78	.157/.231/.186	0	7	21	-0.4
2026	25	AAATB	186	.253/.350/.475	7	26	81	—	.211/.284/.373
2026	25	ROKTB	16	.545/.625/.818	1	2	208	—	.462/.562/.692
2027PROJ49% MLB	26	MLBTB	74	.216/.283/.359	2	6	81	0.1
2028PROJ52% MLB	27	MLBTB	167	.216/.284/.359	4	13	81	0.2
2029PROJ53% MLB	28	MLBTB	189	.215/.284/.356	5	13	80	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$0.2M2028Arb-2$2M2029Arb-3$2M2030Arb-4$3M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Max EV97

Speed97

BB%64

Chase%42

Whiff%13

K%11

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsDavid Hamilton (age 26) · Mike Antico (age 26) · Steward Berroa (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .283 / .359

PA74

HR2

SB6

K%35

BB%8

BABIP315

ISO134

MLB%49%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 58

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025

CONTACT45

Whiff%

1215.3%

xAVG

100.177

POWER58

Barrel%

244.9

Avg EV

3788.1

Bat Spd

6372.7

EYE45

Chase%

5231.4%

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.0

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-4	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	86	71	23	6	0	4	11	20	2	4	2	324	424	577	1.001	254	396	23	13	430	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	ROK	FCL Astros Blue	—	17	17	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	1	0							35	0		-114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	56	52	13	1	0	5	4	16	0	5	0	250	304	558	861	308	258	29	7	372	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	394	344	84	16	1	18	48	83	1	41	7	244	338	453	791	209	272	21	12	351	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	192	173	45	10	0	5	13	48	1	11	0	260	311	405	715	145	331	25	7	314	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	251	226	56	10	2	10	18	56	2	19	4	248	305	442	748	195	284	22	7	325	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	MLB	Houston Astros	—	78	70	11	0	1	0	6	29	1	7	2	157	231	186	416	29	268	37	8	200	21	-7	+1	+1	+1	+2	-0.4
2025	24	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	150	126	36	16	0	6	22	30	0	12	3	286	389	556	945	270	330	20	15	407	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	186	158	40	12	1	7	22	62	2	26	1	253	350	475	824	222	359	33	12	358	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	ROK	FCL Rays	—	16	11	6	0	0	1	3	1	1	2	0	545	625	818	1.443	273	556	6	19	590	208	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	78	70	11	0	1	0	6	29	1	7	2	157	231	186	416	29	268	37	8	200	21	-7	+1	+1	+1	+2	-0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	86	75	20	5	0	3	8	28	2	4	2	267	353	453	806	187	358	33	9	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros Blue	—	17	17	0	0	0	0	0	9	0	1	0							53	0		-114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	56	53	10	1	0	3	3	19	0	5	0	189	232	377	610	189	224	34	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	394	365	67	11	1	13	28	112	1	41	7	184	244	326	570	142	224	28	7	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	192	180	42	9	0	4	9	57	1	11	0	233	274	350	624	117	314	30	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	251	234	52	9	2	8	13	68	2	19	4	222	269	380	649	158	273	27	5	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	78	71	11	0	1	0	6	29	1	7	2	155	231	183	414	28	268	37	8	199	21	-7	+1	+1	+1	+2	-0.4
2025	24	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	150	134	35	16	0	5	15	36	0	12	3	261	336	493	828	231	313	24	10	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	186	166	35	10	1	5	15	74	2	26	1	211	284	373	658	163	325	40	8	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	16	13	6	0	0	1	2	1	1	2	0	462	562	692	1.255	231	416	6	12	475	208	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	103	92	20	5	0	3	8	37	2	5	2	217	294	370	664	152	321	36	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	103	88	23	6	0	4	11	26	2	5	2	261	353	466	819	205	322	25	11	359	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	450	418	77	12	1	16	31	130	1	46	7	184	242	333	575	148	224	29	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	450	396	97	17	1	23	52	99	1	46	7	245	333	467	801	222	270	22	12	353	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	443	414	95	19	2	12	22	125	3	30	4	229	273	372	645	143	296	28	5	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	443	399	101	20	2	15	31	104	3	30	4	253	308	426	734	173	304	23	7	320	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	228	205	46	16	1	5	21	65	1	19	5	224	300	385	685	161	301	29	9	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	228	196	47	16	1	6	28	59	1	19	5	240	335	423	758	184	311	26	12	336	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	202	179	41	10	1	6	17	76	3	28	1	229	307	397	703	168	350	38	8	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	202	169	46	12	1	8	25	63	3	28	1	272	372	497	869	225	376	31	12	376	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	103	92	20	5	0	3	8	37	2	5	2	217	294	370	664	152	299	36	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	450	415	77	12	1	16	31	130	1	46	7	186	242	335	577	149	224	29	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	443	415	95	19	2	12	22	125	3	30	4	229	273	371	644	142	291	28	5	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	228	204	46	16	1	5	21	65	1	19	5	225	300	387	687	162	298	29	9	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	202	180	41	10	1	6	17	76	3	28	1	228	307	394	701	167	332	38	8	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	443	415	95	19	2	12	22	125	3	30	4	229	273	371	644	142	291	28	5	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	228	204	46	16	1	5	21	65	1	19	5	225	300	387	687	162	298	29	9	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	202	180	41	10	1	6	17	76	3	28	1	228	307	394	701	167	332	38	8	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TB	49%	227	206	44	10	1	6	17	79	2	18	3	215	282	361	644	147	312	35	7	287	81	-5	+2	+0	+1	+5	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	TB	49%	74	67	14	3	0	2	6	26	1	6	1	216	283	359	643	144	315	35	8	287	81	-2	+1	+0	+0	+2	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	52%	325	294	64	15	1	9	25	112	3	25	5	215	283	361	644	146	310	34	8	287	81	-7	+3	+0	+1	+7	0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	TB	53%	357	323	69	16	1	9	28	122	3	25	5	214	283	358	641	144	307	34	8	286	80	-9	+3	-0	+1	+8	0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	TB	52%	364	330	70	16	1	9	28	123	3	23	5	213	281	354	635	141	304	34	8	284	78	-9	+3	-1	+1	+8	0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	52%	167	151	32	7	1	4	13	57	1	13	2	216	284	359	643	143	313	34	8	287	81	-4	+2	+0	+1	+4	0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	TB	53%	189	170	37	8	1	5	15	64	2	13	3	215	284	356	640	141	310	34	8	286	80	-5	+1	-0	+1	+4	0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	TB	52%	190	171	37	8	1	5	15	64	2	12	2	214	282	352	634	138	307	34	8	284	78	-5	+2	-1	+1	+4	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	624	562	117	23	4	14	49	214	6	45	9	208	278	338	616	130	306	34	8	275	76	-21	+5	+0	+3	+14	0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	122	24	4	15	51	223	6	47	9	209	278	340	618	132	306	34	8	275	76	-21	+6	+0	+3	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	2624	2393	512	116	9	73	192	843	20	213	36	214	278	361	639	148	294	32	7	281	76	-36	+11	-0	+5	+28	0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	127	29	2	18	48	209	5	53	9	214	279	361	640	147	295	32	7	281	76	-18	+6	-0	+3	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#2Luis Matos'00-'06 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,773 PA	2.7	1,773	30	72	245*	304*	365*	+1	+10	3.2	3.2
/162	664	11	27	+0.3	+3.9	1.2	pk7: 3
#3Travis Jankowskilast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,718 PA	2.6	1,718	11	100	238	321	309	-9	+11	2.1	2.5
/162	664	4	39	-3.6	+4.2	0.8	pk7: 3
#4Ed Stroud'66-'71 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,500 PA	2.3	1,500	14	72	245*	312*	375*	-6	-0	2.5	2.5
/162	664	6	32	-2.7	-0.2	1.1	pk7: 2
#5Damon Buford'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,072 PA	3.1	2,072	54	56	230*	296*	371*	-1	-2	0.2	0.8
/162	664	17	18	-0.4	-0.5	0.1	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.1	707	16	52	209	275	340	-5	+1	-0.3	-0.3
/162	664	15	49	-5.0	+1.3	-0.3	pk7: -0
#6Joe Simpson'75-'83 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	9	45	237*	289*	336*	-9	+2	-2.3	-1.8
/162	664	4	20	-4.0	+1.1	-1.0	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jacob Melton (OGILVIE)	26	41→45	55→58	60	45	213/280/358	145	312	4	13	35%	8%	81	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕David Hamilton 2024 · MLB	26	41→43	45→50	68→70	48	205/280/327	121	267	12	51	27%	9%	72	-0.7	221/286/352	131	280	14	50	25%	8%	80	-0.2	227/287/350	124	282	13	56	24%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Mike Antico 2024 · AA	26	42→43	45	63→60	44	209/276/336	127	277	13	39	29%	7%	73	-0.6	212/277/322	110	293	11	31	30%	7%	70	-0.8	201/271/300	99	284	10	32	31%	6%	61	-0.9
✕Steward Berroa 2024 · AAA	25	45→51	43→45	65	45	214/289/329	115	317	9	45	33%	9%	76	-0.4	226/302/326	100	325	8	42	30%	9%	80	-0.2	223/305/311	88	314	7	46	29%	10%	76	-0.2
✕Bubba Thompson 2024 · MLB	26	52→59	44→50	65	39	248/295/367	120	337	11	43	29%	5%	86	+0.3	216/259/305	89	318	7	31	33%	5%	59	-1.7	186/210/227	40	296	2	37	36%	3%	17	-2.1
✕Adalberto Mondesi 2021 · MLB	26	51→53	51→60	68→65	38	253/290/423	169	336	17	49	30%	5%	98	+1.2	227/274/382	155	306	18	39	31%	6%	83	+0.1	208/244/397	189	262	25	57	31%	4%	75	-0.2
✕Greg Jones 2024 · AAA	26	47→48	46→50	63→65	34	211/272/340	129	363	13	37	43%	6%	73	-0.6	209/274/319	110	365	11	44	43%	6%	69	-0.9	206/278/301	95	358	10	57	42%	7%	63	-0.8
✕J.P. Martínez 2024 · MLB	28	46→48	48→50	64→65	47	222/305/370	147	315	14	37	32%	10%	92	+0.7	213/288/327	114	313	10	34	32%	9%	76	-0.4	191/267/275	85	292	6	43	34%	8%	53	-1.6
✕Brewer Hicklen 2022 · AA	26	43→50	48→50	60	40	213/284/354	141	321	17	33	37%	8%	80	-0.1	198/278/353	155	303	18	33	38%	8%	79	-0.2	207/283/355	147	290	18	38	33%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Keon Broxton 2017 · MLB	27	49→52	49→55	62→60	45	234/305/396	163	347	16	36	35%	9%	97	+1.1	209/283/366	157	338	18	32	40%	9%	82	+0.0	192/267/340	148	315	18	33	42%	8%	71	-0.5
✕Cam Eden 2024 · AAA	26	47→51	40	65	41	217/291/308	91	326	8	46	33%	7%	72	-0.7	200/265/292	92	292	8	36	32%	7%	59	-1.7	171/235/258	88	246	7	40	32%	7%	38	-1.4
✕Monte Harrison 2022 · MLB	26	47→45	49→50	61→60	35	211/279/350	139	375	18	34	45%	7%	78	-0.3	202/263/313	111	370	12	32	45%	7%	63	-1.4	185/245/278	93	346	9	37	46%	7%	45	-1.4
✕Jeremy Hazelbaker 2014 · AAA	26	47→53	45→55	58→60	38	232/277/349	117	322	13	33	31%	5%	76	-0.4	229/276/364	135	317	13	24	30%	6%	78	-0.3	238/295/409	172	329	16	21	31%	7%	95	+0.5
✕Nick Heath 2021 · MLB	27	44→39	40	63→65	41	205/272/301	96	328	8	43	37%	8%	63	-1.3	204/268/317	113	331	10	27	38%	7%	65	-1.2	182/257/288	106	310	8	36	40%	8%	55	-0.9
✕Forrest Wall 2023 · AAA	27	48→55	38→45	65→70	40	223/280/308	84	327	5	47	32%	6%	68	-1.0	243/309/345	102	339	8	46	28%	8%	86	+0.3	250/321/350	101	344	8	50	27%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Samad Taylor 2024 · MLB	26	51→61	45→50	63→65	49	246/323/375	129	330	12	43	28%	9%	99	+1.3	248/315/357	109	335	9	36	26%	8%	92	+0.7	253/319/358	105	339	9	36	26%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Estevan Florial 2023 · MLB	25	45→55	47→50	55→60	42	216/281/357	141	323	14	30	36%	8%	80	-0.2	215/286/372	157	323	17	28	36%	9%	85	+0.2	205/281/368	163	302	19	30	36%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Duke Ellis 2023 · AA	25	43→47	40	60→80	38	207/262/293	86	312	8	37	35%	6%	57	-1.8	216/274/306	90	321	8	53	33%	7%	65	-1.2	238/288/332	95	331	8	94	29%	6%	73	-0.3
✕Darren Ford 2012 · MLB	26	47→53	41→45	59→65	41	225/278/324	98	307	8	34	28%	6%	70	-0.8	225/271/307	82	304	6	39	26%	6%	63	-1.3	225/270/292	67	304	4	48	26%	5%	56	-1.0
✕Tanner Kirwer 2022 · AA	26	43	44→40	61→60	47	210/297/324	114	292	13	36	30%	9%	79	-0.2	205/278/294	89	293	9	31	31%	8%	64	-1.3	190/262/256	66	274	7	35	31%	7%	48	-1.2
✕DaShawn Keirsey Jr. 2023 · AA	26	45→54	43→45	60	39	216/268/329	113	306	10	32	32%	6%	68	-1.0	239/292/358	119	327	10	32	28%	6%	83	+0.1	239/295/361	122	325	10	35	28%	6%	83	+0.1

Jacob Melton

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps