Trace Bright

P Norfolk Tides

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 199 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECTFG #825

Scout OFP40ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	AABowie Baysox	27	27	112	4.18	4.07	24.5%	12.3%	—	K 19.9% · BB 13.5% · FIP 4.53
2025	24	AABAL	23	15	87	4.74	3.81	21.8%	15.4%	—	K 17.6% · BB 16.9% · FIP 4.32
2026	25	MIX2 levels	28	26	123	6.73	5.10	24.1%	10.5%	—	K 20.3% · BB 10.1% · FIP 5.53
2027PROJ	26	MLBBAL	13	13	78	5.70	5.70	19.5%	13.8%	-0.7
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBBAL	8	8	48	5.57	5.59	19.7%	13.2%	-0.4
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBBAL	12	12	71	5.53	5.57	19.8%	13.0%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff48Control30Command39FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsJake Bockenstedt (age 24) · Nick Pasquale (age 26) · Nic Swanson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.70

FIP5.70

K%19.5%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%5.7%

Proj IP78

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL3030

CMD3040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	1	10	35	9	4	0	25%	2.4	25.7%	11.4%	14.3%	0.0%	1.86	2.38	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	1	10	35	9	4	0	25%	2.4	25.7%	11.4%	14.3%	0.0%	1.86	2.48	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	21	100	434	147	56	9	81%	3.8	26.3%	14.7%	11.5%	2.8%	3.97	4.26	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	21	100	434	147	56	9	81%	3.8	33.9%	12.9%	21.0%	2.1%	3.97	3.01	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	27	27	112	489	120	60	13	100%	4.1	19.9%	13.5%	6.4%	2.6%	4.18	4.53	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	27	27	112	489	120	60	13	100%	4.1	19.9%	13.5%	6.4%	2.6%	4.18	4.53	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	27	27	112	489	120	60	13	100%	4.1	24.5%	12.3%	12.3%	2.7%	4.18	4.07	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	23	15	87	377	82	58	4	65%	3.8	17.6%	16.9%	0.7%	1.0%	4.74	4.32	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	23	15	87	377	82	58	4	65%	3.8	17.6%	16.9%	0.7%	1.0%	4.74	4.32	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Chesapeake Baysox	23	15	87	377	82	58	4	65%	3.8	21.8%	15.4%	6.4%	1.1%	4.74	3.81	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	123	552	133	58	26	93%	4.4	20.3%	10.1%	10.2%	5.2%	6.73	5.53	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	123	552	133	58	26	93%	4.4	20.3%	10.1%	10.2%	5.2%	6.73	5.53	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	123	552	133	58	26	93%	4.4	24.1%	10.5%	13.6%	4.7%	6.73	5.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BAL	13	13	78	329	64	45	13	100%	6.0	19.5%	13.8%	5.7%	3.9%	5.70	5.70	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	113	477	94	63	18	100%	5.9	19.7%	13.2%	6.5%	3.8%	5.57	5.59	-0.9
2029	28	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	113	477	94	62	18	100%	5.9	19.8%	13.0%	6.8%	3.9%	5.53	5.57	-0.8
2030	29	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	108	456	89	59	18	100%	6.0	19.6%	12.9%	6.7%	4.0%	5.57	5.64	-0.9
2031	30	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	101	428	83	56	18	100%	6.0	19.4%	13.1%	6.2%	4.1%	5.68	5.78	-1.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	48	203	40	27	8	100%	6.0	19.7%	13.2%	6.5%	3.8%	5.57	5.59	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	71	300	59	39	12	100%	5.9	19.8%	13.0%	6.8%	3.9%	5.53	5.57	-0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	79	334	66	43	13	100%	6.1	19.6%	12.9%	6.7%	4.0%	5.57	5.64	-0.7
2031	30	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	81	342	66	45	14	100%	5.8	19.4%	13.1%	6.2%	4.1%	5.68	5.78	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	46	278	1175	230	153	47	100%	6.0	19.6%	13.0%	6.6%	4.0%	5.59	5.27	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	165	110	34	100%	6.0	19.6%	13.0%	6.6%	4.0%	5.59	5.27	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		108	90	432	1887	399	254	57	83%	4.0	21.1%	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	4.92	4.68	-3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	42	200	874	185	117	26	83%	4.0	21.1%	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	4.92	4.68	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trace Bright (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.70	19.5%	13.8%	3.9%	—	5.60	19.7%	6.7%	334	-0.10	—	—	—
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	84
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	81
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	80
M.D. Johnson R 2023 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP	5.64	16.4%	12.7%	4.2%	.254	3.52	14.6%	4.7%	67	-2.12	3.52	395	79
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	79
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	78
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	76
Chance Kirby R 2021 · 5.83 FIP	26	SP-	5.83	15.1%	10.0%	5.0%	.242	4.59	18.5%	11.2%	138	-1.24	4.14	325	76
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	76
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.90	12.7%	5.3%	173	-0.43	4.40	412	76
Justin Armbruester R 2024 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP	5.73	20.2%	11.1%	5.3%	.289	1.49	27.5%	21.9%	15	-4.24	1.49	373	76
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	76
Ben Meyer R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	26	SP	5.58	19.4%	13.1%	4.5%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.32	387	76
Jarrod Cande R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SP	5.42	16.7%	11.0%	4.3%	.256	5.72	11.7%	-3.6%	23	+0.30	4.31	315	76
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	75
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	75
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	75
Joe Nathan R 2000 · 5.19 FIP	25	SP-	5.19	14.3%	13.8%	2.8%	.262	3.30	26.3%	16.8%	79	-1.89	1.25	929	75
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	74
Joaquín Benoit R 2003 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP-	5.64	18.8%	11.0%	5.0%	.252	3.90	22.0%	13.2%	270	-1.74	1.99	1,064	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	103	19.6%	13.2%	1.52	5.60
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41
Johnnie Wittig ('38-'49, -2 WAR*)	1.5	102	19.4%*	11.7%*	1.68*	5.81*
Lowell Palmer ('69-'74, -4 WAR*)	1.6	79	21.9%*	13.3%*	1.59*	6.09*
Jack Kucek ('74-'80, -2 WAR*)	1.0	51	20.4%*	11.8%*	1.44*	5.37*
Rocky Coppinger ('01)	1.2	60	19.3%	12.9%	1.79	5.47
Bobby Jones ('04)	1.6	81	15.1%	12.9%	1.25	5.77