Marcus Johnson — OGILVIE

Marcus Johnson P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%18.0%

BB%2.6%

K-BB%15.4%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6565

CMD5555

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	4	17	73	29	11	2	80%	3.3	34.8%	16.2%	18.6%	5.3%	5.94	5.13	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	4	17	73	29	11	2	80%	3.3	39.7%	15.1%	24.7%	2.7%	5.94	3.16	—
2023	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	26	24	130	536	114	21	12	92%	5.0	15.7%	4.6%	11.1%	2.7%	3.74	3.84	—
2023	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	26	24	130	536	114	21	12	92%	5.0	15.7%	4.6%	11.1%	2.7%	3.74	3.84	—
2023	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	26	24	130	536	114	21	12	92%	5.0	21.3%	3.9%	17.4%	2.2%	3.74	3.03	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	6	16	62	13	3	1	86%	2.3	21.0%	4.8%	16.1%	1.6%	2.20	2.83	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	6	16	62	13	3	1	86%	2.3	21.0%	4.8%	16.1%	1.6%	2.20	2.83	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	6	16	62	13	3	1	86%	2.3	21.0%	4.8%	16.1%	1.6%	2.20	2.86	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	25	138	570	138	16	28	100%	5.5	18.6%	3.2%	15.4%	6.6%	4.50	5.56	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	25	138	570	138	16	28	100%	5.5	18.6%	3.2%	15.4%	6.6%	4.50	5.56	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	25	138	570	138	16	28	100%	5.5	24.2%	2.8%	21.4%	4.9%	4.50	4.09	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	9	8	31	136	22	8	9	89%	3.4	13.2%	5.6%	7.6%	7.8%	6.10	6.97	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	9	8	31	136	22	8	9	89%	3.4	13.2%	5.6%	7.6%	7.8%	6.10	6.97	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	TB	6	5	18	75	16	2	7	83%	2.9	21.3%	2.7%	18.7%	9.3%	6.62	6.76	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	TB	3	3	13	61	6	6	2	100%	4.4	9.8%	9.8%	0.0%	3.3%	5.40	5.31	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	TB	1	1	8	34	6	1	1	100%	8.2	18.0%	2.6%	15.4%	4.1%	4.55	4.55	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	39	170	28	9	10	—	—	16.6%	5.2%	11.3%	6.1%	5.77	6.47	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	124	524	98	16	21	100%	5.9	18.7%	3.0%	15.6%	4.0%	4.51	4.49	+0.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	122	516	98	18	21	100%	6.1	18.9%	3.5%	15.5%	4.0%	4.51	4.51	+0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	119	501	95	19	20	100%	5.9	19.0%	3.8%	15.1%	4.0%	4.55	4.58	+0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	113	478	90	20	20	100%	6.0	18.8%	4.2%	14.6%	4.2%	4.64	4.71	+0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	106	450	83	20	20	100%	5.9	18.4%	4.5%	14.0%	4.4%	4.79	4.88	+0.0
2032	31	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	99	419	76	20	19	100%	5.8	18.1%	4.8%	13.2%	4.6%	4.97	5.08	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	54	228	43	7	9	100%	6.0	18.7%	3.0%	15.6%	4.1%	4.58	4.56	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	13	13	78	329	62	11	14	100%	6.0	18.9%	3.5%	15.5%	4.1%	4.58	4.58	+0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	90	380	72	15	16	100%	6.0	19.0%	3.8%	15.1%	4.2%	4.62	4.65	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	92	388	73	16	17	100%	6.1	18.8%	4.2%	14.6%	4.3%	4.71	4.78	+0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	91	384	71	17	17	100%	6.1	18.4%	4.5%	14.0%	4.5%	4.86	4.95	+0.0
2032	31	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	88	372	67	18	18	100%	5.9	18.1%	4.8%	13.2%	4.7%	5.05	5.16	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		82	82	494	2085	389	84	90	100%	6.0	18.6%	4.0%	14.6%	4.3%	4.74	4.42	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	158	34	36	100%	6.0	18.6%	4.0%	14.6%	4.3%	4.74	4.42	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		72	67	332	1377	247	66	68	93%	4.6	17.9%	4.8%	13.2%	4.9%	4.31	4.88	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	40	200	830	149	40	41	93%	4.6	17.9%	4.8%	13.2%	4.9%	4.31	4.88	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marcus Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	18.0%	2.6%	4.1%	—	4.53	18.9%	15.4%	365	-0.02	—	—	—
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	84
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	78
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	76
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.09	19.9%	12.5%	148	-0.57	3.68	261	73
Daulton Jefferies R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP-	4.43	17.4%	4.0%	4.2%	.305	4.51	15.4%	9.3%	94	+0.08	3.23	265	71
Wilmer Font R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	26	SP	3.82	17.0%	4.9%	2.8%	.277	3.84	26.2%	19.1%	263	+0.02	2.76	345	69
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	69
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	69
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	68
Max Beatty R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP	4.31	11.8%	3.7%	3.2%	.264	3.88	13.2%	6.8%	46	-0.43	3.88	117	68
Cooper Criswell R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	25	SP	3.85	21.3%	4.3%	3.7%	.320	3.54	18.2%	12.0%	292	-0.31	2.76	645	68
M.D. Johnson R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP	4.27	21.3%	7.1%	3.8%	.269	4.85	15.7%	4.1%	181	+0.58	3.52	395	68
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	68
Ian Mejia R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.8%	6.4%	3.9%	.300	4.73	17.1%	6.8%	318	+0.11	3.94	439	68
Nathan Wiles R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	25	SP-	4.68	17.0%	5.7%	4.2%	.308	4.39	17.0%	10.7%	200	-0.29	4.22	399	67
Sean Hunley R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	24	SP	4.39	16.6%	5.8%	3.6%	.303	4.55	13.9%	6.4%	160	+0.16	3.25	365	67
Joe Wieland R 2015 · 3.38 FIP	25	SP	3.38	16.6%	5.4%	1.8%	.352	4.27	18.6%	11.3%	124	+0.89	3.38	270	67
Noah Zavolas R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	25	SP	4.86	19.6%	6.8%	4.7%	.288	5.99	16.4%	6.8%	62	+1.13	3.44	315	67
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.28	19.1%	10.1%	247	+0.40	3.88	490	67
Pierson Ohl R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	23	SP	3.71	17.9%	3.7%	3.0%	.280	4.12	17.6%	13.5%	198	+0.41	2.89	417	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	111	18.6%	3.8%	1.62	4.64
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
John Means ('24)	1.9	78	20.6%	4.9%	1.64	3.60
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37