Marcus Johnson
P
Durham Bulls
Age 25
RHP
6'6" / 200 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.7 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION14 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.69
FIP4.69
K%18.0%
BB%2.9%
K-BB%15.1%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 4 | 17 | 73 | 29 | 11 | 2 | 80% | 3.3 | 34.8% | 16.2% | 18.6% | 5.6% | 5.94 | 5.26 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 4 | 17 | 73 | 29 | 11 | 2 | 80% | 3.3 | 39.7% | 15.1% | 24.7% | 2.7% | 5.94 | 3.16 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 26 | 24 | 130 | 536 | 114 | 21 | 12 | 92% | 5.0 | 15.7% | 4.6% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 3.74 | 3.75 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 26 | 24 | 130 | 536 | 114 | 21 | 12 | 92% | 5.0 | 21.3% | 3.9% | 17.4% | 2.2% | 3.74 | 3.03 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 6 | 16 | 62 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 86% | 2.3 | 21.0% | 4.8% | 16.1% | 1.6% | 2.20 | 2.83 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 6 | 16 | 62 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 86% | 2.3 | 21.0% | 4.8% | 16.1% | 1.6% | 2.20 | 2.86 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 25 | 25 | 138 | 570 | 138 | 16 | 28 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.6% | 3.2% | 15.4% | 7.1% | 4.50 | 5.85 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 25 | 25 | 138 | 570 | 138 | 16 | 28 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.2% | 2.8% | 21.4% | 4.9% | 4.50 | 4.09 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 4 | 3 | 14 | 65 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 3.6 | 8.7% | 10.3% | -1.7% | 3.6% | 5.02 | 5.66 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 49 | 8 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.0% | 2.9% | 15.1% | 4.3% | 4.69 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TB | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.0% | 2.9% | 15.1% | 4.2% | 4.63 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | TB | — | — | 79 | 339 | 56 | 14 | 14 | — | — | 16.6% | 4.1% | 12.5% | 4.1% | 4.75 | 4.87 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | TB | — | — | 6 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 1 | — | — | 18.0% | 2.9% | 15.1% | 4.2% | 4.63 | 4.24 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TB | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 71 | 13 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.7% | 3.4% | 15.3% | 4.2% | 4.63 | 4.61 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TB | 15 | 15 | 89 | 375 | 71 | 14 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 3.8% | 15.2% | 4.1% | 4.62 | 4.62 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 86 | 363 | 69 | 15 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.0% | 4.1% | 14.8% | 4.2% | 4.66 | 4.69 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 82 | 347 | 65 | 15 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.8% | 4.4% | 14.4% | 4.3% | 4.75 | 4.81 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 77 | 326 | 67 | 13 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 3.9% | 16.5% | 4.5% | 4.73 | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 61 | 13 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.1% | 4.3% | 15.8% | 4.7% | 4.84 | 4.92 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 67 | 281 | 55 | 13 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.6% | 4.7% | 14.9% | 5.0% | 5.02 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TB | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 34 | 6 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.7% | 3.4% | 15.3% | 4.1% | 4.57 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 47 | 9 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 3.8% | 15.2% | 4.0% | 4.56 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 53 | 11 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.0% | 4.1% | 14.8% | 4.1% | 4.60 | 4.63 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 54 | 13 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.8% | 4.4% | 14.4% | 4.2% | 4.69 | 4.75 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 58 | 11 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.4% | 3.9% | 16.5% | 4.4% | 4.66 | 4.65 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 54 | 12 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.1% | 4.3% | 15.8% | 4.6% | 4.77 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 50 | 12 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.6% | 4.7% | 14.9% | 4.8% | 4.94 | 5.06 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 73 | 73 | 435 | 1835 | 356 | 75 | 79 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 4.1% | 15.3% | 4.3% | 4.69 | 4.35 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 164 | 35 | 36 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 4.1% | 15.3% | 4.3% | 4.69 | 4.35 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 67 | 62 | 315 | 1306 | 235 | 65 | 62 | 93% | 4.7 | 18.0% | 5.0% | 13.0% | 4.7% | 4.17 | 4.80 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 39 | 200 | 828 | 149 | 41 | 39 | 93% | 4.7 | 18.0% | 5.0% | 13.0% | 4.7% | 4.17 | 4.80 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Marcus Johnson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.69 | 18.0% | 2.9% | 4.3% | — | 4.64 | 18.9% | 15.1% | 265 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Watson R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.26 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | .342 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 5.4% | 98 | +1.59 | 4.26 | 165 | 77 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.69 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .336 | 6.45 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.76 | 3.69 | 124 | 77 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 75 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 71 |
| Daulton Jefferies R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.56 | 17.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | .305 | 4.57 | 15.7% | 9.1% | 94 | +0.01 | 3.29 | 265 | 71 |
| Garrett McMillan R 2025 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.54 | 18.9% | 4.3% | 2.7% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 118 | 71 |
| Christian Scott R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.64 | 24.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | .249 | 3.95 | 27.5% | 17.8% | 68 | -0.69 | 2.65 | 302 | 70 |
| Mat Latos R 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 69 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 69 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.58 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 4.3% | .269 | 4.73 | 15.7% | 4.1% | 181 | +0.15 | 3.50 | 395 | 69 |
| Cooper Criswell R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.82 | 21.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | .320 | 3.50 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 292 | -0.32 | 2.73 | 641 | 69 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.56 | 16.6% | 5.4% | 2.2% | .352 | 4.50 | 18.6% | 11.3% | 124 | +0.94 | 3.56 | 270 | 69 |
| Max Beatty R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.32 | 11.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | .264 | 3.69 | 13.2% | 6.8% | 46 | -0.63 | 3.69 | 117 | 69 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 68 |
| Mason Adams R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.84 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.23 | 21.6% | 12.3% | 25 | +0.39 | 3.84 | 254 | 68 |
| Wilmer Font R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.55 | 17.0% | 4.9% | 2.3% | .277 | 3.87 | 26.2% | 19.1% | 263 | +0.32 | 2.78 | 345 | 68 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 68 |
| Noah Zavolas R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.07 | 19.6% | 6.8% | 5.0% | .288 | 5.96 | 16.4% | 6.8% | 62 | +0.89 | 3.37 | 315 | 68 |
| A.J. Ladwig R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.82 | 14.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | .322 | 5.59 | 15.7% | 11.0% | 101 | +0.77 | 3.80 | 759 | 67 |
| Matt Shoemaker R 2029 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.51 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | .280 | 3.83 | 21.8% | 15.9% | 269 | -0.68 | 3.24 | 592 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 82 | 19.1% | 3.9% | 1.69 | 4.73 |
| Josh Tomlin ('21) | 7 | 88 | 17.6% | 2.9% | 1.85 | 4.69 |
| Erasmo Ramírez ('24) | 8 | 78 | 18.1% | 5.8% | 1.40 | 4.33 |
| Wade LeBlanc ('21) | 6 | 81 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 1.67 | 4.61 |
| Ross Stripling ('24) | 9 | 94 | 20.9% | 5.6% | 1.32 | 4.17 |
| Matt Andriese ('21) | 7 | 73 | 21.7% | 6.7% | 1.34 | 4.63 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |