Marcus Johnson
P
Durham Bulls
+0.9
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'6" / 200 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.9 · 2027
ERA4.76
FIP4.76
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.6%
BB%5.8%
K-BB%14.7%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2027
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 5 | 4 | 17 | 73 | 29 | 11 | 2 | 34.8% | 16.2% | 5.4% | 5.94 | 5.15 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 26 | 24 | 130 | 536 | 114 | 21 | 12 | 15.7% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 3.74 | 3.83 | +2.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 7 | 6 | 16 | 62 | 13 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.20 | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 25 | 25 | 138 | 570 | 138 | 16 | 28 | 18.6% | 3.2% | 6.7% | 4.50 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 3 | 2 | 10 | 48 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.48 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 104 | 30 | 21 | 20.6% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.76 | 4.76 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | TB | — | — | 130 | 555 | 109 | 34 | 22 | 19.7% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 4.66 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 127 | 536 | 113 | 32 | 22 | 21.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.69 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 116 | 34 | 22 | 21.1% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.66 | 4.66 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 116 | 34 | 22 | 21.1% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 4.65 | 4.66 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 113 | 34 | 21 | 21.0% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 4.68 | 4.70 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 108 | 34 | 21 | 20.8% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 4.73 | 4.76 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 119 | 503 | 103 | 33 | 21 | 20.5% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 4.79 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 98 | 33 | 20 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 4.87 | 4.92 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 92 | 32 | 20 | 20.0% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 4.96 | 5.02 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 86 | 31 | 19 | 19.6% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 5.06 | 5.13 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 79 | 30 | 18 | 19.2% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 5.17 | 5.25 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 72 | 29 | 18 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 5.30 | 5.38 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 66 | 61 | 311 | 1289 | 234 | 62 | 58 | 18.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.66 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 39 | 200 | 828 | 150 | 40 | 37 | 18.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.66 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Marcus Johnson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 20.6% | 5.9% | 4.1% | — | 4.67 | 21.1% | 14.9% | 387 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2025 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | .336 | 6.35 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.48 | 3.87 | 124 | 88 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.65 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .262 | 3.09 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.56 | 3.09 | 137 | 87 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 86 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.65 | 17.1% | 4.4% | 2.6% | .312 | 3.74 | 16.9% | 9.5% | 198 | +0.09 | 3.57 | 302 | 85 |
| Parker Curry R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.73 | 17.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 256 | 85 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.29 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.85 | 15.7% | 4.1% | 181 | +0.56 | 3.52 | 395 | 84 |
| Noah Zavolas R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.86 | 19.6% | 6.8% | 4.7% | .288 | 6.00 | 16.4% | 6.8% | 62 | +1.14 | 3.43 | 315 | 82 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 81 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.8% | .287 | 3.79 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.78 | 3.40 | 289 | 81 |
| Hayden Minton R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 81 |
| Mat Latos R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.55 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.15 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.60 | 3.55 | 244 | 79 |
| Mason Adams R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.76 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 229 | 79 |
| Mitch Myers R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.1% | 5.8% | 3.4% | .338 | 3.57 | 18.5% | 14.5% | 23 | -0.75 | 3.57 | 362 | 79 |
| Raisel Iglesias R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.57 | 23.7% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .271 | 3.07 | 27.7% | 19.6% | 226 | -0.50 | 1.32 | 765 | 79 |
| Christian Scott R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.74 | 24.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | .249 | 4.50 | 25.8% | 22.2% | 14 | -0.24 | 2.56 | 248 | 79 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2029 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 79 |
| Victor Alcántara R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.49 | 19.0% | 4.1% | 2.7% | .289 | 5.52 | 14.8% | 6.5% | 61 | +2.03 | 3.49 | 464 | 79 |
| Aaron Brown R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.63 | 20.9% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .339 | 8.07 | 11.3% | 0.5% | 72 | +3.44 | 4.08 | 418 | 78 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 78 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 18.5% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .277 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.3% | 164 | +1.27 | 3.83 | 550 | 78 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.5 | $2M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $10M | $21M | +$11M | ||