Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Rays | 6 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 42.9% | 0.0% | 2.35 | -0.52 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Rays | 6 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 42.9% | 0.0% | 2.35 | -0.03 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 10 | 93 | 382 | 70 | 18 | 4 | 36% | 3.3 | 14.7% | 5.3% | 9.4% | 1.4% | 3.47 | 3.28 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 10 | 93 | 382 | 70 | 18 | 4 | 36% | 3.3 | 18.3% | 4.7% | 13.6% | 1.0% | 3.47 | 2.74 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 113 | 485 | 99 | 27 | 16 | 96% | 4.2 | 16.7% | 6.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 4.25 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 113 | 485 | 99 | 27 | 16 | 96% | 4.2 | 20.4% | 5.6% | 14.8% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 3.90 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 11 | 76 | 294 | 52 | 13 | 5 | 35% | 2.5 | 14.6% | 4.6% | 10.0% | 2.3% | 1.77 | 3.69 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 11 | 76 | 294 | 52 | 13 | 5 | 35% | 2.5 | 17.7% | 4.4% | 13.3% | 1.7% | 1.77 | 3.10 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 52 | 229 | 36 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.9 | 13.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 5.05 | 4.75 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 52 | 229 | 36 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.9 | 15.7% | 10.0% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 5.05 | 4.80 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 14 | 9 | 36 | 174 | 29 | 17 | 8 | 64% | 2.6 | 13.7% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 7.43 | 6.22 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 46 | 192 | 34 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | DET | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | DET | — | — | 82 | 366 | 63 | 34 | 13 | — | — | 17.2% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 5.89 | 5.35 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | DET | — | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 17.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | DET | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 34 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | DET | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 0 | 17 | 74 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.33 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 183 | 3 | 200 | 844 | 149 | 80 | 23 | 1% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 133 | 56 | 379 | 1592 | 246 | 106 | 43 | 42% | 2.8 | 15.5% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.14 | 4.12 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 70 | 30 | 200 | 841 | 130 | 56 | 23 | 42% | 2.8 | 15.5% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.14 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sean Hunley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.71 | 18.1% | 9.0% | 44 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 83 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 83 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 82 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 81 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 81 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 80 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 80 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.79 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.7% | .251 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.06 | 3.76 | 399 | 79 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 79 |
| Andres Santiago R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .384 | 5.45 | 13.1% | 3.2% | 159 | +1.18 | 3.74 | 291 | 79 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 79 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 78 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .297 | 4.10 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 293 | -0.05 | 3.33 | 556 | 77 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 77 |
| Colby Morris R 2024 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 76 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 76 |
| Calvin Drummond R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.51 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 0.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 112 | 76 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 76 |
| DJ Baxendale R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.68 | 18.1% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .355 | 5.84 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 49 | +2.16 | 2.81 | 426 | 76 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2029 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 45 | 17.9% | 9.0% | 1.11 | 4.67 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |