Michael Prosecky
P
Hartford Yard Goats
+0.4
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.8 · 2028
ERA4.76
FIP4.76
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.5%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%8.9%
IP96
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2028
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 21 | 21 | 109 | 453 | 125 | 41 | 4 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 1.0% | 2.72 | 3.25 | +2.5 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 14 | 13 | 49 | 216 | 78 | 21 | 3 | 24.4% | 14.1% | 1.6% | 4.44 | 3.72 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 27 | 27 | 127 | 550 | 127 | 63 | 13 | 18.0% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.77 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 3 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | COL | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 83 | 47 | 11 | 20.5% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 4.76 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | COL | — | — | 100 | 422 | 83 | 47 | 11 | 19.6% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 4.66 | 4.57 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 103 | 433 | 91 | 49 | 12 | 20.9% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.69 | 4.68 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 106 | 447 | 94 | 49 | 13 | 21.0% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.66 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 94 | 49 | 13 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.66 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 92 | 48 | 13 | 20.9% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.70 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 101 | 425 | 88 | 47 | 13 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.73 | 4.76 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 97 | 410 | 84 | 46 | 13 | 20.5% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 4.83 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | COL | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 80 | 44 | 12 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.87 | 4.92 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 89 | 376 | 75 | 43 | 12 | 19.9% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 5.02 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | COL | 15 | 15 | 85 | 357 | 70 | 42 | 12 | 19.6% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 5.06 | 5.13 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 80 | 337 | 71 | 37 | 12 | 21.2% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 5.01 | 4.98 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 74 | 315 | 65 | 36 | 11 | 20.7% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 5.07 | 5.12 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 66 | 61 | 289 | 1240 | 245 | 150 | 23 | 19.8% | 12.1% | 1.9% | 3.64 | 4.00 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 42 | 200 | 857 | 169 | 104 | 16 | 19.8% | 12.1% | 1.9% | 3.64 | 4.00 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Prosecky (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 20.5% | 11.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.67 | 21.0% | 10.0% | 315 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Sam Garcia L 2024 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 88 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.87 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 236 | 85 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 85 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 85 |
| Hunter Owen L 2024 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 85 |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 84 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 84 |
| Jack Choate L 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.27 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 282 | 84 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 84 |
| Matt Lujan L 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.80 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.71 | 4.09 | 227 | 83 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.00 | 16.7% | 11.9% | 3.3% | .273 | 5.89 | 16.9% | 6.7% | 89 | +0.89 | 3.67 | 331 | 83 |
| Justin Marks L 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 83 |
| Misael Siverio L 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 83 |
| Chipper Smith L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 82 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.69 | 17.8% | 15.2% | 2.1% | .290 | 6.03 | 20.1% | 1.7% | 13 | +1.34 | 3.86 | 176 | 82 |
| Daniel Camarena L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 15.9% | 9.7% | 2.4% | .338 | 4.72 | 16.9% | 10.5% | 187 | +0.40 | 3.76 | 674 | 82 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.38 | 20.5% | 15.0% | 3.8% | .307 | 3.30 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 116 | -2.08 | 2.32 | 304 | 81 |
| Nick Sando L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 20.6% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 154 | 81 |
| Trey Dombroski L 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.76 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 329 | 81 |
| Brad Hand L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .326 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.27 | 0.84 | 577 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| Totals | $5M | $14M | +$9M | ||