Maxwell Romero Jr.
C Harrisburg Senators| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A+/INTL2 orgs | 369 | .195/.299/.352 | 10 | 1 | 38 | — | .138/.200/.254 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAWSH | 316 | .196/.272/.322 | 7 | 1 | 41 | — | .184/.243/.297 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA/AAWSH | 394 | .253/.366/.515 | 23 | 0 | 85 | — | .205/.294/.395 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBWSH | 3 | .181/.257/.329 | 0 | 0 | 65 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 27 | MLBWSH | 60 | .183/.259/.331 | 2 | 0 | 66 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ40% MLB | 28 | MLBWSH | 101 | .185/.260/.330 | 3 | 1 | 66 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 33 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 273 | 207 | 480 | 34 | 333 | 42 | 12 | 233 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 224 | 177 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 42 | 60 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 266 | 420 | 429 | 849 | 164 | 364 | 27 | 19 | 387 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 33 | 28 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 375 | 393 | 768 | 107 | 400 | 27 | 12 | 338 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 308 | 271 | 51 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 102 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 279 | 347 | 626 | 159 | 259 | 33 | 9 | 282 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 61 | 47 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 234 | 400 | 383 | 783 | 149 | 312 | 25 | 21 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 316 | 276 | 54 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 112 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 196 | 272 | 322 | 595 | 127 | 287 | 35 | 8 | 262 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 165 | 142 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 10 | 19 | 61 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 362 | 521 | 883 | 254 | 389 | 37 | 12 | 383 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 229 | 190 | 46 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 76 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 242 | 368 | 511 | 879 | 268 | 324 | 33 | 14 | 385 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 33 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 212 | 167 | 379 | 33 | 313 | 61 | 9 | 154 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 224 | 193 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 84 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 207 | 317 | 332 | 649 | 124 | 321 | 38 | 12 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 33 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 250 | 267 | 517 | 67 | 311 | 39 | 6 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 308 | 283 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 137 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 138 | 200 | 254 | 454 | 117 | 218 | 44 | 5 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 316 | 283 | 52 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 137 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 184 | 243 | 297 | 539 | 113 | 284 | 43 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 165 | 147 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 73 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 294 | 395 | 689 | 177 | 349 | 44 | 8 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 229 | 200 | 39 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 93 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 195 | 294 | 395 | 689 | 200 | 286 | 41 | 10 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 33 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 212 | 167 | 379 | 33 | 400 | 61 | 9 | 154 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 33 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 273 | 207 | 480 | 34 | 333 | 42 | 12 | 233 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 257 | 223 | 46 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 96 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 206 | 309 | 323 | 631 | 117 | 328 | 37 | 11 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 257 | 205 | 55 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 46 | 69 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 268 | 414 | 424 | 838 | 156 | 369 | 27 | 18 | 381 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 369 | 340 | 46 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 164 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 135 | 195 | 247 | 442 | 112 | 222 | 44 | 5 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 369 | 318 | 62 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 40 | 117 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 195 | 299 | 352 | 651 | 157 | 268 | 32 | 11 | 294 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 316 | 283 | 52 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 137 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 184 | 243 | 297 | 539 | 113 | 313 | 43 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 316 | 276 | 54 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 112 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 196 | 272 | 322 | 595 | 127 | 287 | 35 | 8 | 262 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 394 | 347 | 69 | 14 | 0 | 16 | 37 | 166 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 199 | 289 | 378 | 667 | 179 | 317 | 42 | 9 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 394 | 332 | 84 | 18 | 0 | 23 | 52 | 137 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 253 | 366 | 515 | 881 | 262 | 351 | 35 | 13 | 384 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 33 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 212 | 167 | 379 | 33 | 313 | 61 | 9 | 154 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 257 | 222 | 46 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 96 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 207 | 309 | 324 | 633 | 117 | 320 | 37 | 11 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 369 | 341 | 46 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 164 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 135 | 195 | 246 | 441 | 111 | 218 | 44 | 5 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 316 | 291 | 52 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 137 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 179 | 243 | 289 | 531 | 110 | 284 | 43 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 394 | 347 | 69 | 14 | 0 | 16 | 37 | 166 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 199 | 289 | 378 | 667 | 179 | 312 | 42 | 9 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 369 | 341 | 46 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 164 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 135 | 195 | 246 | 441 | 111 | 218 | 44 | 5 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 316 | 291 | 52 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 137 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 179 | 243 | 289 | 531 | 110 | 284 | 43 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 394 | 347 | 69 | 14 | 0 | 16 | 37 | 166 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 199 | 289 | 378 | 667 | 179 | 312 | 42 | 9 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | WSH | 2% | 380 | 342 | 61 | 13 | 0 | 12 | 29 | 153 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 181 | 257 | 329 | 586 | 148 | 276 | 40 | 8 | 264 | 65 | -16 | -0 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | WSH | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 181 | 257 | 329 | 587 | 148 | 277 | 33 | 0 | 264 | 65 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | WSH | 27% | 225 | 203 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 183 | 259 | 330 | 589 | 147 | 277 | 40 | 8 | 265 | 66 | -9 | -0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | WSH | 40% | 253 | 227 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 98 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 184 | 260 | 330 | 589 | 145 | 276 | 39 | 8 | 265 | 66 | -10 | -1 | -1 | +5 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB MLE | WSH | 45% | 263 | 237 | 43 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 101 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 185 | 260 | 327 | 587 | 142 | 276 | 38 | 8 | 265 | 65 | -11 | -1 | -1 | +5 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | WSH | 27% | 60 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 259 | 331 | 590 | 147 | 277 | 40 | 8 | 266 | 66 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | WSH | 40% | 101 | 91 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 185 | 260 | 330 | 590 | 145 | 277 | 39 | 8 | 266 | 66 | -4 | -0 | -0 | +2 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB CTX | WSH | 45% | 118 | 106 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 45 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 185 | 260 | 328 | 588 | 142 | 276 | 38 | 8 | 265 | 65 | -5 | -0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 279 | 251 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 22 | 108 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 187 | 264 | 335 | 598 | 147 | 279 | 39 | 8 | 265 | 58 | -11 | -0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 585 | 109 | 23 | 0 | 21 | 51 | 252 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 186 | 262 | 333 | 595 | 147 | 278 | 39 | 8 | 265 | 58 | -27 | -1 | -2 | +12 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2265 | 2030 | 364 | 80 | 1 | 64 | 172 | 933 | 37 | 7 | 13 | 179 | 256 | 314 | 570 | 135 | 286 | 41 | 8 | 254 | 58 | -37 | -2 | -2 | +16 | +19 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 583 | 104 | 23 | 0 | 18 | 49 | 268 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 178 | 255 | 310 | 566 | 132 | 285 | 41 | 8 | 254 | 58 | -27 | -1 | -2 | +12 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 229 PAwOBA .377 → .294 (−82)K% 33.2% → 40.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.19% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 10.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.18% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.979 | ×0.998 | 17.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.979 | ×0.998 | 8.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.979 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 8.88% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .377 → .294; ISO .268 → .204; BABIP .324 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 165 PAwOBA .375 → .292 (−83)K% 37.0% → 44.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.97% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 44.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.21% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.994 | ×1.033 | 25.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.994 | ×1.033 | 6.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.994 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 8.93% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .375 → .292; ISO .254 → .178; BABIP .389 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 316 PAwOBA .260 → .229 (−31)K% 35.4% → 43.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.44% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 43.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.28% | ÷0.967 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.58% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.12% | ÷1.009 | ×0.970 | ×1.025 | ×1.012 | 20.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.54% | ÷0.887 | ×0.860 | ×1.025 | ×1.012 | 8.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.950 | ×1.025 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.27% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.50% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 102, 2B 77, 3B 83, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .260 → .229; ISO .127 → .109; BABIP .287 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 308 PAwOBA .275 → .198 (−77)K% 33.1% → 44.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.12% | ÷0.974 | ×1.310 | — | — | 44.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.44% | ÷1.015 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 4.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.27% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.98% | ÷1.008 | ×0.870 | ×0.997 | ×0.998 | 13.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.28% | ÷0.942 | ×0.780 | ×0.997 | ×0.998 | 6.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.59% | ÷0.984 | ×0.850 | ×0.997 | ×0.998 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.33% | ÷1.016 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 4.60% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 88, 3B 97, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .275 → .198; ISO .159 → .120; BABIP .259 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 224 PAwOBA .378 → .286 (−92)K% 26.8% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.79% | ÷0.978 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.75% | ÷1.126 | ×0.690 | — | — | 11.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.23% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.35% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | — | 25.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.84% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×1.011 | — | 5.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.011 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.98% | ÷0.917 | ×0.800 | — | — | 5.22% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 103, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 96, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .378 → .286; ISO .164 → .132; BABIP .364 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Nationals · 33 PAwOBA .340 → .235 (−105)K% 27.3% → 38.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷1.011 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.12% | ÷1.013 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 7.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.32% | ÷0.983 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 21.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.79% | ÷0.971 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 11.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.034 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 107, K 102, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .340 → .235; ISO .107 → .073; BABIP .400 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AFredericksburg Nationals · 33 PAwOBA .228 → .154 (−74)K% 42.4% → 59.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 42.42% | ÷0.966 | ×1.360 | — | — | 59.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.12% | ÷0.970 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 8.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 25.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 6.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.910 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.074 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 97, 2B 87, 3B 82, K 93, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .228 → .154; ISO .034 → .022; BABIP .333 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .