Luis Velasquez — OGILVIE

Luis Velasquez P Somerset Patriots

Age 25 RHP 5'10" / 155 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%23.3%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees	11	0	35	161	39	14	1	0%	3.2	16.5%	10.9%	5.6%	0.9%	3.38	3.56	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Yankees	11	0	35	161	39	14	1	0%	3.2	24.2%	8.7%	15.5%	0.6%	3.38	2.44	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	7	0	9	46	7	11	0	0%	1.3	15.2%	23.9%	-8.7%	0.0%	5.00	4.84	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	7	0	9	46	7	11	0	0%	1.3	15.2%	23.9%	-8.7%	0.0%	5.00	5.21	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	8	1	15	60	22	9	0	12%	1.9	24.9%	18.8%	6.2%	0.0%	1.76	3.37	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	8	1	15	60	22	9	0	12%	1.9	36.7%	15.0%	21.7%	0.0%	1.76	1.99	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	62	250	77	33	2	0%	1.7	23.3%	15.4%	8.0%	1.0%	1.74	3.62	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	62	250	77	33	2	0%	1.7	23.3%	15.4%	8.0%	1.0%	1.74	3.62	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	62	250	77	33	2	0%	1.7	30.8%	13.2%	17.6%	0.8%	1.74	2.63	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	30	2	41	195	56	30	6	7%	1.4	23.3%	16.9%	6.3%	3.6%	4.57	5.25	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	30	2	41	195	56	30	6	7%	1.4	23.3%	16.9%	6.3%	3.6%	4.57	5.25	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	30	2	41	195	56	30	6	7%	1.4	28.7%	15.4%	13.3%	3.1%	4.57	4.45	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	26	0	31	130	37	14	0	0%	1.2	20.4%	12.4%	8.0%	0.0%	2.90	2.95	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	26	0	31	130	37	14	0	0%	1.2	20.4%	12.4%	8.0%	0.0%	2.90	2.95	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	NYY	3	0	3	13	4	1	0	0%	1.1	30.8%	7.7%	23.1%	0.0%	5.40	1.48	—
2026	25	A RAW	NYY	2	0	2	9	5	1	0	0%	1.1	55.6%	11.1%	44.4%	0.0%	0.00	-0.18	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	NYY	10	0	12	50	16	4	0	0%	1.2	32.0%	8.0%	24.0%	0.0%	3.00	1.41	—
2026	25	AA RAW	NYY	11	0	13	58	12	8	0	0%	1.2	20.7%	13.8%	6.9%	0.0%	2.70	3.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	NYY	35	0	37	157	37	22	5	0%	1.1	23.5%	14.0%	9.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.93	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	NYY	15	0	16	68	16	9	2	0%	1.1	23.5%	14.0%	9.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.93	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	16	69	16	10	2	0%	1.0	23.5%	14.0%	9.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.55	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	196	123	25	0%	1.1	23.5%	14.0%	9.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.55	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		118	3	193	842	179	127	11	3%	1.6	21.2%	15.1%	6.1%	1.3%	2.98	3.93	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	3	200	871	185	132	11	3%	1.6	21.2%	15.1%	6.1%	1.3%	2.98	3.93	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Velasquez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	23.3%	14.6%	3.0%	—	4.93	23.5%	9.5%	37	-0.09	—	—	—
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	91
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	89
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	88
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	87
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	87
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	86
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	86
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	86
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	86
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	86
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	86
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	86
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	86
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	86
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	85
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	458	85
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	85
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	84
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	23.4%	14.3%	1.17	4.97
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64