Reidis Sena — OGILVIE

Reidis Sena P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 25 RHP 5'10" / 160 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%23.1%

BB%17.4%

K-BB%5.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2525

CMD4040

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox 2	10	10	40	164	32	13	2	100%	4.0	13.3%	9.9%	3.4%	1.7%	4.05	4.17	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox 2	10	10	40	164	32	13	2	100%	4.0	19.5%	7.9%	11.6%	1.2%	4.05	3.12	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	9	3	22	96	31	13	1	33%	2.5	22.0%	16.9%	5.0%	1.5%	3.22	4.23	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	9	3	22	96	31	13	1	33%	2.5	32.3%	13.5%	18.8%	1.0%	3.22	2.65	—
2022	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	11	10	21	102	21	12	3	91%	1.9	15.2%	13.9%	1.4%	4.4%	5.91	5.97	—
2022	21	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	11	10	21	102	21	12	3	91%	1.9	20.6%	11.8%	8.8%	2.9%	5.91	4.65	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	30	127	35	15	0	0%	1.4	20.8%	13.8%	7.0%	0.0%	3.64	3.09	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	30	127	35	15	0	0%	1.4	20.8%	13.8%	7.0%	0.0%	3.64	3.09	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	30	127	35	15	0	0%	1.4	27.6%	11.8%	15.7%	0.0%	3.64	2.26	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	59	260	84	32	9	0%	1.7	25.1%	14.0%	11.1%	4.1%	4.40	5.02	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	59	260	84	32	9	0%	1.7	25.1%	14.0%	11.1%	4.1%	4.40	5.02	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	59	260	84	32	9	0%	1.7	32.3%	12.3%	20.0%	3.5%	4.40	3.86	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	25	2	42	179	49	29	1	8%	1.7	22.2%	17.8%	4.4%	0.6%	3.46	3.81	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	25	2	42	179	49	29	1	8%	1.7	22.2%	17.8%	4.4%	0.6%	3.46	3.81	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	25	2	42	179	49	29	1	8%	1.7	27.4%	16.2%	11.2%	0.6%	3.46	3.15	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	33	2	52	247	69	49	7	6%	1.6	22.7%	20.5%	2.2%	3.3%	5.54	5.60	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	33	2	52	247	69	49	7	6%	1.6	22.7%	20.5%	2.2%	3.3%	5.54	5.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	BOS	27	1	42	193	57	33	5	4%	1.5	29.5%	17.1%	12.4%	2.6%	4.75	4.19	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	BOS	6	1	10	54	12	16	2	17%	1.7	22.2%	29.6%	-7.4%	3.7%	8.71	7.01	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	BOS	5	0	5	21	5	4	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	17.4%	5.7%	2.7%	5.20	5.20	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	57	268	74	53	8	—	—	27.6%	19.6%	7.9%	2.8%	5.51	5.57	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	BOS	57	0	60	251	59	42	7	0%	1.0	23.4%	16.6%	6.8%	2.7%	5.10	5.09	-0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	BOS	56	0	59	247	58	40	7	0%	1.0	23.4%	16.1%	7.3%	2.8%	5.06	5.07	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	BOS	25	0	26	110	26	18	3	0%	1.0	23.4%	16.6%	6.8%	2.7%	5.10	5.09	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	BOS	35	0	37	156	36	25	4	0%	1.1	23.4%	16.1%	7.3%	2.8%	5.06	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	267	62	44	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	16.3%	7.1%	2.7%	5.08	4.70	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	196	139	22	0%	1.1	23.4%	16.3%	7.1%	2.7%	5.08	4.70	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		144	27	266	1175	246	183	29	19%	1.8	20.9%	15.6%	5.3%	2.4%	4.36	4.65	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	20	200	882	185	138	22	19%	1.8	20.9%	15.6%	5.3%	2.4%	4.36	4.65	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Reidis Sena (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	23.1%	17.4%	2.7%	—	5.08	23.4%	7.0%	118	-0.12	—	—	—
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	87
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	86
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	86
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	85
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	83
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	83
Carlos Contreras R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.46	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.29	107	83
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	83
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	82
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	82
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	82
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	82
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	81
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	23.9%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	81
Cole McDonald R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	25	SW	5.07	26.5%	19.8%	3.1%	.403	3.88	23.4%	11.5%	93	-1.19	2.81	153	81
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	81
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	81
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	458	81
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	81
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	23.3%	16.7%	1.05	5.12
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99