Gabriel Aguilera

Gabriel Aguilera P Dayton Dragons

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%15.8%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%1.9%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	7	44	187	35	8	3	50%	3.1	12.7%	5.3%	7.4%	2.2%	4.33	3.94	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	14	7	44	187	35	8	3	50%	3.1	18.7%	4.3%	14.4%	1.6%	4.33	2.94	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	8	46	188	57	18	1	73%	4.2	21.3%	11.4%	9.9%	0.7%	2.36	3.15	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	8	46	188	57	18	1	73%	4.2	30.3%	9.6%	20.7%	0.5%	2.36	2.07	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	32	141	38	24	4	100%	2.9	17.6%	22.0%	-4.4%	4.2%	5.62	6.68	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	32	141	38	24	4	100%	2.9	17.6%	22.0%	-4.4%	4.2%	5.62	6.68	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	11	32	141	38	24	4	100%	2.9	27.0%	17.0%	9.9%	2.8%	5.62	4.60	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	99	422	70	48	3	76%	4.0	12.5%	13.2%	-0.7%	0.7%	3.55	4.10	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	99	422	70	48	3	76%	4.0	12.5%	13.2%	-0.7%	0.7%	3.55	4.10	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	99	422	70	48	3	76%	4.0	16.6%	11.4%	5.2%	0.7%	3.55	3.53	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	4	31	143	30	18	0	50%	3.9	15.4%	15.3%	0.1%	0.0%	5.17	3.74	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	4	31	143	30	18	0	50%	3.9	15.4%	15.3%	0.1%	0.0%	5.17	3.74	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	4	31	143	30	18	0	50%	3.9	21.0%	12.6%	8.4%	0.0%	5.17	2.91	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	CIN	1	1	3	13	2	2	0	100%	3.0	15.8%	13.9%	1.9%	2.5%	5.26	5.26	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	89	376	66	50	10	100%	5.9	17.4%	13.2%	4.2%	2.5%	5.11	5.07	-0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	88	371	66	48	10	100%	5.9	17.8%	12.9%	4.9%	2.6%	5.05	5.05	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	85	360	64	46	10	100%	6.1	17.8%	12.8%	5.1%	2.7%	5.06	5.09	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	81	344	61	44	10	100%	5.8	17.7%	12.9%	4.9%	2.9%	5.13	5.20	-0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	76	323	63	40	10	100%	5.9	19.4%	12.4%	7.0%	3.1%	5.12	5.11	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	38	160	28	21	4	100%	6.3	17.4%	13.2%	4.2%	2.5%	5.11	5.07	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	55	232	41	30	6	100%	6.1	17.8%	12.9%	4.9%	2.6%	5.05	5.05	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	64	270	48	34	7	100%	5.8	17.8%	12.8%	5.1%	2.7%	5.06	5.09	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	66	279	49	36	8	100%	6.0	17.7%	12.9%	4.9%	2.9%	5.13	5.20	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	66	279	54	34	9	100%	6.0	19.4%	12.4%	7.0%	3.1%	5.12	5.11	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	48	289	1222	221	156	34	100%	6.0	18.1%	12.8%	5.3%	2.8%	5.09	4.73	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	153	108	23	100%	6.0	18.1%	12.8%	5.3%	2.8%	5.09	4.73	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		69	49	252	1081	164	140	14	71%	3.6	15.1%	13.0%	2.2%	1.3%	3.93	4.19	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	39	200	859	130	111	11	71%	3.6	15.1%	13.0%	2.2%	1.3%	3.93	4.19	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabriel Aguilera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	15.8%	13.9%	2.5%	—	5.07	17.7%	4.7%	262	-0.19	—	—	—
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	80
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	79
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	78
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	78
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	78
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	78
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.84	19.6%	8.0%	114	-2.22	3.68	136	76
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	76
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	76
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	76
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	75
Cole Percival R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.0%	14.3%	1.6%	.335	4.23	18.6%	8.6%	99	-0.10	3.58	327	75
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	74
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	74
Holt Jones R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	16.1%	17.9%	1.9%	.285	4.01	21.7%	7.0%	161	-1.05	3.37	241	74
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	74
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	74
Matt Ruppenthal R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	18.5%	13.8%	2.7%	.308	4.30	22.5%	7.6%	102	-0.46	3.74	283	73
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	73
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	75	17.8%	12.9%	1.06	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91