Gabriel Aguilera
P
Dayton Dragons
Age 25
RHP
6'0" / 205 lbs
A+
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.61
FIP4.61
K%19.6%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%8.2%
ROS IP30
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | 14 | 7 | 44 | 187 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 50% | 3.1 | 12.7% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 2.2% | 4.33 | 3.94 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | 14 | 7 | 44 | 187 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 50% | 3.1 | 18.7% | 4.3% | 14.4% | 1.6% | 4.33 | 2.94 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 8 | 46 | 188 | 57 | 18 | 1 | 73% | 4.2 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 0.7% | 2.36 | 3.14 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 8 | 46 | 188 | 57 | 18 | 1 | 73% | 4.2 | 30.3% | 9.6% | 20.7% | 0.5% | 2.36 | 2.07 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 32 | 141 | 38 | 24 | 4 | 100% | 2.9 | 17.6% | 22.0% | -4.4% | 3.9% | 5.62 | 6.56 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 32 | 141 | 38 | 24 | 4 | 100% | 2.9 | 27.0% | 17.0% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 5.62 | 4.60 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 19 | 99 | 422 | 70 | 48 | 3 | 76% | 4.0 | 12.5% | 13.2% | -0.7% | 0.6% | 3.55 | 4.03 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 19 | 99 | 422 | 70 | 48 | 3 | 76% | 4.0 | 16.6% | 11.4% | 5.2% | 0.7% | 3.55 | 3.53 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 4 | 31 | 143 | 30 | 18 | 0 | 50% | 3.9 | 15.4% | 15.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 5.17 | 3.74 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 4 | 31 | 143 | 30 | 18 | 0 | 50% | 3.9 | 21.0% | 12.6% | 8.4% | 0.0% | 5.17 | 2.91 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 5 | 5 | 30 | 125 | 25 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.6% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 4.61 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 5 | 5 | 30 | 125 | 26 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 4.56 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 2 | 2 | 13 | 55 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 6.5 | 20.4% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 4.56 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 13 | 54 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.4% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 4.56 | 4.17 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 172 | 94 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 4.56 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 69 | 49 | 252 | 1081 | 164 | 140 | 13 | 71% | 3.6 | 15.1% | 13.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 3.93 | 4.15 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 39 | 200 | 859 | 130 | 111 | 11 | 71% | 3.6 | 15.1% | 13.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 3.93 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gabriel Aguilera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 19.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | — | 4.55 | 20.4% | 9.2% | 30 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 85 |
| Sean Harney R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.51 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.3% | .285 | 4.69 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.51 | 123 | 81 |
| Blair Henley R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 80 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 79 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 79 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 77 |
| Jake Bray R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.02 | 15.4% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .294 | 5.41 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 61 | +0.39 | 2.76 | 198 | 77 |
| Cole Percival R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .296 | 3.59 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 36 | -0.73 | 3.59 | 327 | 76 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 76 |
| David Lebron R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 76 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 76 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 75 |
| Burch Smith R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 75 |
| Andrew Politi R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.50 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 4.8% | .320 | 4.16 | 23.1% | 13.2% | 138 | -1.34 | 3.45 | 292 | 74 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .380 | 4.51 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.25 | 4.50 | 119 | 74 |
| Sean Mooney R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 74 |
| Brandt Thompson R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 19.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 162 | 74 |
| Justin Topa R 2028 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 74 |
| Matt Ager R 2024 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 73 |
| Chase Centala R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 30 | 20.0% | 11.2% | 0.96 | 4.58 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |