Evan Fitterer — OGILVIE

Evan Fitterer P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION93 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%17.7%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%4.6%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	9	8	23	105	19	12	1	89%	2.5	12.3%	14.3%	-2.0%	1.3%	2.38	4.60	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	9	8	23	105	19	12	1	89%	2.5	18.1%	11.4%	6.7%	1.0%	2.38	3.59	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	8	30	134	33	10	1	89%	3.4	17.5%	6.2%	11.3%	1.3%	4.15	3.11	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	8	30	134	33	10	1	89%	3.4	24.6%	7.5%	17.2%	0.7%	4.15	2.34	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	22	22	107	464	80	46	8	100%	4.9	13.3%	11.4%	1.9%	2.4%	4.28	4.76	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	22	22	107	464	80	46	8	100%	4.9	17.2%	9.9%	7.3%	1.7%	4.28	3.86	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	123	557	118	84	16	100%	4.7	17.0%	16.7%	0.3%	3.2%	4.26	5.55	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	123	557	118	84	16	100%	4.7	17.0%	16.7%	0.3%	3.2%	4.26	5.55	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	123	557	118	84	16	100%	4.7	21.2%	15.1%	6.1%	2.9%	4.26	4.93	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	121	549	114	68	9	100%	4.8	16.9%	12.9%	4.0%	1.9%	4.92	4.35	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	121	549	114	68	9	100%	4.8	16.9%	12.9%	4.0%	1.9%	4.92	4.35	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	121	549	114	68	9	100%	4.8	20.8%	12.4%	8.4%	1.6%	4.92	3.87	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	33	10	95	398	94	41	4	30%	2.9	19.1%	11.3%	7.8%	1.1%	3.42	3.52	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	33	10	95	398	94	41	4	30%	2.9	19.1%	11.3%	7.8%	1.1%	3.42	3.52	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	33	10	95	398	94	41	4	30%	2.9	23.6%	10.3%	13.3%	1.0%	3.42	2.96	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	27	20	93	421	63	54	4	74%	3.5	12.4%	11.5%	0.9%	1.0%	4.15	4.09	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	27	20	93	421	63	54	4	74%	3.5	12.4%	11.5%	0.9%	1.0%	4.15	4.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	SD	27	20	93	421	63	54	4	74%	3.5	15.0%	12.8%	2.1%	1.0%	4.15	3.98	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	SD	1	1	7	28	5	4	1	100%	6.7	17.7%	13.1%	4.6%	2.4%	4.94	4.94	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	100	449	68	58	5	—	—	15.1%	12.8%	2.3%	1.0%	4.20	4.14	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	111	469	85	59	12	100%	6.2	18.1%	12.6%	5.5%	2.5%	4.89	4.91	-0.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	111	469	86	58	12	100%	6.2	18.3%	12.4%	5.9%	2.6%	4.90	4.94	-0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	106	448	81	55	12	100%	5.9	18.2%	12.4%	5.8%	2.8%	4.97	5.04	-0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	100	421	75	53	13	100%	5.9	17.9%	12.6%	5.4%	3.0%	5.09	5.19	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	47	198	36	25	5	100%	5.9	18.1%	12.6%	5.5%	2.5%	4.92	4.94	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	69	291	53	36	8	100%	5.8	18.3%	12.4%	5.9%	2.7%	4.94	4.98	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	77	325	59	40	9	100%	5.9	18.2%	12.4%	5.8%	2.9%	5.01	5.08	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	79	334	60	42	10	100%	6.1	17.9%	12.6%	5.4%	3.1%	5.13	5.23	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	46	274	1157	210	144	33	100%	6.0	18.1%	12.5%	5.7%	2.8%	5.01	4.69	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	153	105	24	100%	6.0	18.1%	12.5%	5.7%	2.8%	5.01	4.69	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		151	119	592	2628	414	334	52	79%	3.9	15.8%	12.7%	3.1%	2.0%	4.17	4.46	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	40	200	888	140	113	17	79%	3.9	15.8%	12.7%	3.1%	2.0%	4.17	4.46	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Evan Fitterer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	17.7%	13.1%	2.4%	—	4.96	18.2%	5.7%	328	+0.02	—	—	—
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	88
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	88
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	83
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	82
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	81
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	80
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	79
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	79
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	79
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	79
Phillippe Aumont R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	19.6%	18.2%	1.6%	.262	5.01	22.3%	10.4%	64	+0.40	4.61	147	79
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	78
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	78
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	78
Cole Percival R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.0%	14.3%	1.6%	.335	4.23	18.6%	8.6%	99	-0.10	3.58	327	78
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	78
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	77
Kanekoa Texeira R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.10	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.03	4.10	165	77
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	77
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	100	18.1%	12.6%	1.03	4.96
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91