Evan Fitterer
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
+0.7
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.9 · 2027
ERA4.61
FIP4.61
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.8%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%8.0%
IP105
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2027
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 9 | 8 | 23 | 105 | 19 | 12 | 1 | 12.3% | 14.3% | 1.3% | 2.38 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 9 | 8 | 30 | 134 | 33 | 10 | 1 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 1.3% | 4.15 | 3.12 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 22 | 22 | 107 | 464 | 80 | 46 | 8 | 13.3% | 11.4% | 2.5% | 4.28 | 4.78 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 26 | 26 | 123 | 557 | 118 | 84 | 16 | 17.0% | 16.7% | 3.2% | 4.26 | 5.54 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 25 | 25 | 121 | 549 | 114 | 68 | 9 | 17.2% | 13.5% | 1.9% | 4.92 | 4.39 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 33 | 10 | 95 | 398 | 94 | 41 | 4 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 1.1% | 3.42 | 3.53 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 4 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 10 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.12 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 105 | 445 | 88 | 53 | 11 | 19.8% | 11.8% | 2.4% | 4.61 | 4.61 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | SD | — | — | 113 | 477 | 98 | 56 | 11 | 20.6% | 11.7% | 2.2% | 4.36 | 4.28 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 108 | 458 | 92 | 52 | 11 | 20.0% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 4.57 | 4.58 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 109 | 460 | 93 | 51 | 12 | 20.1% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 4.57 | 4.58 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 106 | 449 | 90 | 50 | 12 | 20.1% | 11.1% | 2.6% | 4.59 | 4.61 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 87 | 48 | 12 | 20.0% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.63 | 4.66 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | SD | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 83 | 47 | 11 | 19.7% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.73 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 78 | 46 | 11 | 19.4% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.77 | 4.82 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 74 | 45 | 11 | 19.1% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.86 | 4.92 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | SD | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 69 | 43 | 11 | 18.8% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.96 | 5.03 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 63 | 41 | 11 | 18.4% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 5.07 | 5.15 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 76 | 323 | 64 | 37 | 10 | 20.0% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 5.04 | 5.02 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 128 | 101 | 506 | 2239 | 373 | 291 | 47 | 16.7% | 13.0% | 2.1% | 4.12 | 4.50 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 40 | 200 | 884 | 147 | 115 | 19 | 16.7% | 13.0% | 2.1% | 4.12 | 4.50 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Evan Fitterer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 19.8% | 11.8% | 2.4% | — | 4.59 | 20.1% | 8.8% | 324 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.81 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.19 | 308 | 89 |
| David Lebron R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .336 | 5.70 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +1.40 | 4.30 | 144 | 87 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 86 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .280 | 3.12 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.76 | 3.12 | 178 | 86 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 86 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.35 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .285 | 4.28 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | -0.07 | 4.28 | 448 | 86 |
| Kevin Abel R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.51 | 17.8% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.78 | 15.1% | -7.3% | 13 | +1.27 | 4.50 | 352 | 85 |
| Trent Sellers R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 178 | 84 |
| Alex Wimmers R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.68 | 16.6% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .324 | 3.69 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 114 | +0.01 | 3.62 | 230 | 84 |
| Tim Atherton R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 84 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 83 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .285 | 4.91 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.25 | 3.81 | 420 | 83 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 83 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 83 |
| André Rienzo R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.22 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.01 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.21 | 3.54 | 200 | 82 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 82 |
| Scarlyn Reyes R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.53 | 13.9% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .321 | 4.88 | 13.7% | 5.3% | 70 | +0.35 | 4.17 | 317 | 82 |
| Luke Irvine R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 82 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 82 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $6M | $17M | +$11M | ||