Luis Vargas
P
Columbus Clingstones
Age 24
RHP
5'11" / 196 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 28 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 106
ERA4.67
FIP4.67
K%21.6%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%10.7%
ROS IP28
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Braves | 15 | 0 | 22 | 95 | 18 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 12.9% | 15.8% | -2.9% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 4.01 | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Braves | 15 | 0 | 22 | 95 | 18 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.9% | 12.6% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 3.10 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Braves | 3 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.0% | 14.3% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.30 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Braves | 3 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.0% | 14.3% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.35 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 22 | 17 | 96 | 418 | 106 | 42 | 10 | 77% | 4.4 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 3.75 | 4.38 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 22 | 17 | 96 | 418 | 106 | 42 | 10 | 77% | 4.4 | 25.4% | 10.0% | 15.3% | 2.4% | 3.75 | 3.56 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 15 | 97 | 419 | 93 | 42 | 9 | 68% | 4.4 | 16.8% | 11.6% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 4.75 | 4.65 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 15 | 97 | 419 | 93 | 42 | 9 | 68% | 4.4 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 2.1% | 4.75 | 3.69 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 16 | 95 | 403 | 104 | 39 | 10 | 70% | 4.1 | 19.6% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 4.4% | 3.87 | 5.28 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 16 | 95 | 403 | 104 | 39 | 10 | 70% | 4.1 | 25.8% | 9.7% | 16.1% | 2.5% | 3.87 | 3.51 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 22 | 94 | 29 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.3% | 18.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 3.74 | 3.75 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 22 | 94 | 29 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.9% | 13.8% | 17.0% | 1.1% | 3.74 | 2.82 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | 29 | 0 | 41 | 179 | 60 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.2% | 16.6% | 10.6% | 2.0% | 4.65 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 69 | 297 | 85 | 40 | 7 | — | — | 28.8% | 13.4% | 15.4% | 2.2% | 4.66 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.6% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 27 | 0 | 28 | 119 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.16 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 185 | 93 | 31 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 131 | 48 | 376 | 1629 | 311 | 208 | 43 | 37% | 2.9 | 19.1% | 12.8% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 4.56 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 70 | 26 | 200 | 866 | 165 | 111 | 23 | 37% | 2.9 | 19.1% | 12.8% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Vargas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 21.6% | 10.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.53 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 28 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 86 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 84 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 83 |
| Trent Fennell R 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 1.8% | .328 | 5.38 | 19.4% | 3.5% | 107 | +1.50 | 3.88 | 163 | 83 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 81 |
| Carlo Reyes R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .318 | 3.98 | 24.1% | 12.9% | 61 | -0.28 | 2.79 | 229 | 81 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 80 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 80 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .341 | 4.64 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.30 | 3.76 | 467 | 80 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 79 |
| C.J. Culpepper R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.74 | 21.0% | 12.8% | 1.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 253 | 79 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.09 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 4.1% | .304 | 3.92 | 17.8% | 9.2% | 166 | -1.17 | 3.59 | 307 | 79 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 19.5% | 14.2% | 1.7% | .287 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 169 | +0.28 | 3.81 | 233 | 79 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.45 | 21.0% | 12.4% | 2.8% | .325 | 4.48 | 27.5% | 13.5% | 163 | +0.03 | 3.30 | 323 | 78 |
| Sean Sullivan R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 4.1% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 318 | 78 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.08 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .319 | 3.46 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.62 | 3.21 | 349 | 78 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 278 | 78 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 77 |
| Layne Somsen R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 1.3% | .265 | 4.04 | 19.9% | 6.7% | 92 | +0.32 | 3.67 | 154 | 77 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 28 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 1.15 | 4.62 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |