Luis Vargas

P Columbus Clingstones

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 196 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	23	16	95	3.87	3.51	25.8%	9.7%	—	K 19.6% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.86
2025	23	MIX2 levels	17	0	22	3.74	2.82	30.9%	13.8%	—	K 19.3% · BB 18.1% · FIP 3.75
2026	24	MIX2 levels	49	0	68	3.33	2.77	37.0%	14.4%	—	K 30.6% · BB 13.9% · FIP 3.31
2027PROJ	25	MLBATL	1	0	1	4.31	4.31	27.4%	13.2%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBATL	21	0	22	4.30	4.29	27.2%	12.8%	0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBATL	28	0	29	4.32	4.33	26.9%	12.6%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsGarrett Mock (age 25) · Dylan King (age 25) · Peyton Gray (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%27.4%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%14.2%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	15	0	22	95	18	12	0	0%	1.5	12.9%	15.8%	-2.9%	0.0%	3.68	4.01	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	15	0	22	95	18	12	0	0%	1.5	18.9%	12.6%	6.3%	0.0%	3.68	3.10	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	3	0	4	21	4	3	0	0%	1.3	19.0%	14.3%	4.8%	0.0%	0.00	3.30	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	3	0	4	21	4	3	0	0%	1.3	19.0%	14.3%	4.8%	0.0%	0.00	3.35	—
2022	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	22	17	96	418	106	42	10	77%	4.4	18.8%	11.9%	6.9%	2.8%	3.75	4.53	—
2022	20	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	22	17	96	418	106	42	10	77%	4.4	25.4%	10.0%	15.3%	2.4%	3.75	3.56	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	15	97	419	93	42	9	68%	4.4	16.8%	11.6%	5.2%	2.7%	4.75	4.65	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	15	97	419	93	42	9	68%	4.4	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	2.1%	4.75	3.69	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	95	403	104	39	10	70%	4.1	19.6%	11.3%	8.3%	3.6%	3.87	4.86	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	95	403	104	39	10	70%	4.1	19.6%	11.3%	8.3%	3.6%	3.87	4.86	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	16	95	403	104	39	10	70%	4.1	25.8%	9.7%	16.1%	2.5%	3.87	3.51	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	22	94	29	13	1	0%	1.3	19.3%	18.1%	1.3%	0.0%	3.74	3.75	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	22	94	29	13	1	0%	1.3	19.3%	18.1%	1.3%	0.0%	3.74	3.75	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	22	94	29	13	1	0%	1.3	30.9%	13.8%	17.0%	1.1%	3.74	2.82	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	68	284	105	41	5	0%	1.4	30.6%	13.9%	16.8%	1.9%	3.33	3.31	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	68	284	105	41	5	0%	1.4	30.6%	13.9%	16.8%	1.9%	3.33	3.31	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	68	284	105	41	5	0%	1.4	37.0%	14.4%	22.5%	1.8%	3.33	2.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ATL	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	27.4%	13.2%	14.2%	2.7%	4.31	4.31	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ATL	48	0	51	214	58	27	6	0%	1.1	27.2%	12.8%	14.4%	2.7%	4.30	4.29	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	ATL	44	0	46	195	52	25	5	0%	1.0	26.9%	12.6%	14.3%	2.8%	4.32	4.33	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	ATL	21	0	22	93	25	12	3	0%	1.0	27.2%	12.8%	14.4%	2.7%	4.30	4.29	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	ATL	28	0	29	122	33	15	3	0%	1.0	26.9%	12.6%	14.3%	2.8%	4.32	4.33	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	0	52	217	59	28	6	0%	1.1	27.0%	12.7%	14.4%	2.8%	4.31	3.93	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	229	109	23	0%	1.1	27.0%	12.7%	14.4%	2.8%	4.31	3.93	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		151	48	403	1734	349	218	43	32%	2.7	20.1%	12.6%	7.6%	2.5%	3.90	4.35	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	24	200	860	173	108	21	32%	2.7	20.1%	12.6%	7.6%	2.5%	3.90	4.35	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 61 IPFIP 2.37 → 3.31 (+0.94)K% 37.8% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.80%	—	×0.810	30.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.60%	—	×1.100	13.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.57%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.89%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.37 → 3.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 6 IPFIP 6.20 → 6.35 (+0.16)K% 30.0% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.860	25.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	30.00%	—	×0.900	27.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.67%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.20 → 6.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAColumbus Clingstones · 15 IPFIP 3.16 → 3.75 (+0.59)K% 23.9% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.88%	—	×0.810	19.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.42%	—	×1.100	18.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.934	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.16 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Rome Emperors · 7 IPFIP 2.01 → 4.15 (+2.14)K% 48.1% → 37.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	48.15%	—	×0.770	37.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×1.150	8.52%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷0.819	×1.250	5.65%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 64).

Result: FIP 2.01 → 4.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Rome Emperors · 64 IPFIP 3.72 → 5.15 (+1.43)K% 23.9% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.90%	—	×0.770	18.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.09%	—	×1.150	9.30%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷0.831	×1.250	4.42%

Result: FIP 3.72 → 5.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAugusta GreenJackets · 31 IPFIP 3.07 → 4.26 (+1.19)K% 29.8% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.77%	—	×0.740	22.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.98%	—	×1.180	15.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.53%	÷1.010	×1.300	1.96%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 3.07 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Rome Braves · 60 IPFIP 3.68 → 4.55 (+0.88)K% 22.2% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.18%	—	×0.770	17.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.89%	—	×1.150	12.53%
HR / BF /BF	1.95%	÷1.022	×1.250	2.38%

Result: FIP 3.68 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAugusta GreenJackets · 37 IPFIP 3.67 → 4.81 (+1.13)K% 22.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.740	16.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.64%	—	×1.180	10.20%
HR / BF /BF	2.47%	÷0.976	×1.300	3.29%

Result: FIP 3.67 → 4.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Vargas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	27.4%	13.2%	2.7%	—	4.31	27.1%	14.4%	97	-0.00	—	—	—
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	82
Dylan King R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	25	SW	3.78	26.7%	9.8%	3.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	121	79
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	78
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	78
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	78
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	76
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.56	20.2%	4.0%	131	+0.72	3.70	201	75
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	75
Trent Sellers R 2024 · 3.41 FIP	24	SW	3.41	23.4%	13.2%	1.1%	.211	4.63	22.6%	8.7%	175	+1.22	3.41	257	74
Andrew Cashner R 2012 · 3.39 FIP	25	SU	3.39	26.5%	9.2%	2.5%	.306	3.33	19.1%	12.5%	483	-0.06	2.94	1,185	74
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	74
Eric Orze R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	25.6%	13.6%	2.4%	.319	3.57	24.1%	14.8%	196	-0.41	3.33	354	74
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	74
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	74
Josh White R 2024 · 3.39 FIP	23	SU	3.39	24.5%	11.4%	1.7%	.319	3.03	29.2%	19.1%	124	-0.36	1.84	247	73
Conor Grammes R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	28.6%	16.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	20.8%	1.1%	128	-0.12	4.11	171	73
Eduard Santos R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	25	SU	3.51	28.1%	15.2%	1.6%	.265	3.49	24.0%	10.0%	79	-0.02	2.04	138	73
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	73
Cole McDonald R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	25	SW	5.07	26.5%	19.8%	3.1%	.403	3.87	23.6%	11.6%	93	-1.20	2.81	153	73
Trent Harris R 2024 · 3.45 FIP	25	SU	3.45	26.9%	9.5%	2.6%	.258	3.36	24.7%	16.7%	121	-0.09	3.06	198	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	27.1%	12.8%	1.06	4.31
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86
Chad Fox ('09)	1.1	57	25.8%	13.2%	0.87	3.79
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*