Luis Vargas — OGILVIE

Luis Vargas P Columbus Clingstones

Age 24 RHP 5'11" / 196 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%19.8%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%7.5%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	15	0	22	95	18	12	0	0%	1.5	12.9%	15.8%	-2.9%	0.0%	3.68	4.01	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	15	0	22	95	18	12	0	0%	1.5	18.9%	12.6%	6.3%	0.0%	3.68	3.10	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	3	0	4	21	4	3	0	0%	1.3	19.0%	14.3%	4.8%	0.0%	0.00	3.30	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	3	0	4	21	4	3	0	0%	1.3	19.0%	14.3%	4.8%	0.0%	0.00	3.35	—
2022	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	22	17	96	418	106	42	10	77%	4.4	18.8%	11.9%	6.9%	2.8%	3.75	4.53	—
2022	20	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	22	17	96	418	106	42	10	77%	4.4	25.4%	10.0%	15.3%	2.4%	3.75	3.56	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	15	97	419	93	42	9	68%	4.4	16.8%	11.6%	5.2%	2.7%	4.75	4.65	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	15	97	419	93	42	9	68%	4.4	16.8%	11.6%	5.2%	2.7%	4.75	4.65	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	15	97	419	93	42	9	68%	4.4	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	2.1%	4.75	3.69	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	95	403	104	39	10	70%	4.1	19.6%	11.3%	8.3%	3.6%	3.87	4.86	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	95	403	104	39	10	70%	4.1	19.6%	11.3%	8.3%	3.6%	3.87	4.86	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	16	95	403	104	39	10	70%	4.1	25.8%	9.7%	16.1%	2.5%	3.87	3.51	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	22	94	29	13	1	0%	1.3	19.3%	18.1%	1.3%	0.0%	3.74	3.75	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	22	94	29	13	1	0%	1.3	19.3%	18.1%	1.3%	0.0%	3.74	3.75	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	22	94	29	13	1	0%	1.3	30.9%	13.8%	17.0%	1.1%	3.74	2.82	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	47	0	66	273	101	38	5	0%	1.4	30.6%	13.9%	16.8%	1.9%	3.29	3.31	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	47	0	66	273	101	38	5	0%	1.4	30.6%	13.9%	16.8%	1.9%	3.29	3.31	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	ATL	44	0	61	254	96	32	4	0%	1.4	37.8%	12.6%	25.2%	1.6%	3.23	2.37	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	ATL	3	0	4	19	5	6	1	0%	1.4	26.3%	31.6%	-5.3%	5.3%	4.15	7.77	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ATL	83	0	87	367	75	41	11	0%	1.0	20.5%	11.1%	9.5%	2.9%	4.79	4.73	-0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	ATL	83	0	87	367	77	40	11	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.8%	10.1%	2.9%	4.70	4.67	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	ATL	82	0	86	361	76	39	11	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.7%	10.2%	2.9%	4.68	4.68	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	ATL	79	0	83	350	73	38	11	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.8%	10.1%	3.0%	4.72	4.76	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	ATL	76	0	79	335	76	34	11	0%	1.0	22.6%	10.2%	12.4%	3.2%	4.66	4.62	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	ATL	71	0	74	315	70	33	11	0%	1.0	22.3%	10.5%	11.8%	3.4%	4.74	4.79	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	ATL	36	0	38	160	33	18	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	11.1%	9.5%	2.9%	4.79	4.73	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	ATL	55	0	58	245	51	26	7	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.8%	10.1%	2.9%	4.70	4.67	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	ATL	63	0	66	279	58	30	8	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.7%	10.2%	2.9%	4.68	4.68	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	ATL	67	0	70	296	62	32	9	0%	1.0	20.8%	10.8%	10.1%	3.0%	4.72	4.76	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	ATL	67	0	70	296	67	30	9	0%	1.0	22.6%	10.2%	12.4%	3.2%	4.66	4.62	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	ATL	64	0	67	283	63	30	10	0%	1.0	22.3%	10.5%	11.8%	3.4%	4.74	4.79	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		352	0	369	1559	334	166	48	0%	1.0	21.4%	10.6%	10.8%	3.1%	4.71	4.33	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	90	26	0%	1.0	21.4%	10.6%	10.8%	3.1%	4.71	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		149	48	401	1723	346	216	43	32%	2.7	20.1%	12.6%	7.5%	2.5%	3.90	4.36	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	24	200	859	172	108	21	32%	2.7	20.1%	12.6%	7.5%	2.5%	3.90	4.36	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Vargas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	19.8%	12.2%	2.9%	—	4.69	20.8%	9.9%	259	-0.26	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	86
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	85
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	84
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	84
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	84
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	84
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	81
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	81
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	81
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	81
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	80
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	80
Ryan Zeferjahn R 2022 · 4.45 FIP	24	SW	4.45	21.0%	12.4%	2.8%	.325	4.37	27.1%	13.6%	163	-0.08	3.08	344	80
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	80
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	80
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	80
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	80
Armando Ruiz R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	24	SU	4.26	18.4%	11.4%	2.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	113	80
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	79
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	75	21.2%	10.8%	1.18	4.73
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99