Joel Machado
Joel Machado
P
ACL Cubs
Age 24
LHP
6'1" / 160 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION14 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.3%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.1%
IP14
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 2 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 20.0% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 1.12 | 4.91 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 17 | 1 | 24 | 101 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 10.8% | 9.9% | 4.2% | 5.32 | 5.73 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 14 | — | 14 | 60 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 23.6% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 19 | 3 | 32 | 136 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 13.1% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 4.26 | 5.52 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 120 | 19 | 200 | 859 | 114 | 69 | 38 | 13.1% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 4.26 | 5.52 | -0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joel Machado (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.26 | 23.6% | 14.7% | 20 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .316 | 4.00 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 184 | -0.21 | 3.49 | 311 | 84 |
| Jake Rice L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.29 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.56 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 130 | +1.27 | 3.29 | 199 | 84 |
| Brady Basso L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.99 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.17 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.18 | 2.24 | 260 | 84 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 83 |
| Brian Marconi L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .265 | 4.96 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.35 | 3.61 | 101 | 83 |
| Darien Núñez L 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.59 | 2.50 | 122 | 80 |
| Wesley Moore L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.99 | 22.0% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .292 | 4.28 | 15.0% | -0.7% | 30 | +0.29 | 3.83 | 111 | 80 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2028 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 80 |
| Brendon Little L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 24.7% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .333 | 4.14 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 187 | +0.45 | 2.63 | 468 | 80 |
| Robert Garcia L 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.63 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .342 | 4.41 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 106 | -0.22 | 2.21 | 452 | 79 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 79 |
| Dale Stanavich L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.14 | 25.2% | 12.2% | 1.1% | .365 | 4.85 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 127 | +1.71 | 3.14 | 157 | 79 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .276 | 3.94 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.23 | 2.83 | 271 | 78 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.54 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .275 | 4.75 | 19.5% | 3.9% | 45 | +1.21 | 3.54 | 146 | 78 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.41 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .260 | 3.76 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.35 | 3.41 | 160 | 78 |
| Fred Schlichtholz L 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.41 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .368 | 4.36 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 80 | -0.05 | 3.76 | 175 | 78 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.14 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .322 | 3.65 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 67 | +0.51 | 2.87 | 185 | 78 |
| Jared Tobey L 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.11 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 2.3% | .320 | 5.97 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 73 | +1.86 | 4.11 | 158 | 78 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.24 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.6% | .382 | 4.08 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 156 | -0.16 | 2.44 | 171 | 77 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.10 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .317 | 3.30 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 135 | -0.80 | 2.94 | 245 | 77 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.