Carson Skipper

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 27 LHP 6'2" / 211 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	49	59	2.45	2.21	32.0%	7.3%	—	K 25.0% · BB 8.2% · FIP 3.12
2025	25	MIX2 levels	44	67	2.97	3.31	23.9%	8.5%	—	K 19.8% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.71
2026	26	MIX2 levels	10	11	11.12	8.66	11.9%	13.4%	—	K 8.1% · BB 11.2% · FIP 7.62
2027PROJ	27	MLBCOL	6	6	5.05	5.05	16.3%	9.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBCOL	18	19	5.03	5.06	16.9%	9.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBCOL	21	22	5.07	5.13	17.1%	9.6%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control50Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsOzzie Mendez (age 27) · Doug Slaten (age 27) · George Sherrill (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113121vR 129

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%16.3%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%7.0%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	2	0	2	7	2	0	0	0%	1.0	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.69	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	2	0	2	7	2	0	0	0%	1.0	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	42	0	51	214	65	10	4	0%	1.2	22.5%	5.5%	17.0%	2.0%	3.20	3.02	—
2023	23	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	42	0	51	214	65	10	4	0%	1.2	30.4%	4.7%	25.7%	1.9%	3.20	2.15	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	59	247	79	18	4	0%	1.2	25.0%	8.2%	16.8%	2.0%	2.45	3.12	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	59	247	79	18	4	0%	1.2	25.0%	8.2%	16.8%	2.0%	2.45	3.12	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	59	247	79	18	4	0%	1.2	32.0%	7.3%	24.7%	1.6%	2.45	2.21	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	67	284	68	24	6	0%	1.5	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	2.2%	2.97	3.71	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	67	284	68	24	6	0%	1.5	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	2.2%	2.97	3.71	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	67	284	68	24	6	0%	1.5	23.9%	8.5%	15.5%	2.1%	2.97	3.31	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	11	67	8	9	4	0%	1.1	8.1%	11.2%	-3.2%	6.9%	11.12	7.62	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	11	67	8	9	4	0%	1.1	8.1%	11.2%	-3.2%	6.9%	11.12	7.62	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	11	67	8	9	4	0%	1.1	11.9%	13.4%	-1.5%	6.0%	11.12	8.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	COL	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	16.3%	9.2%	7.0%	3.2%	5.05	5.05	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	COL	42	0	44	187	32	18	6	0%	1.1	16.9%	9.4%	7.5%	3.3%	5.03	5.06	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	COL	36	0	37	157	27	15	5	0%	1.0	17.1%	9.6%	7.5%	3.4%	5.07	5.13	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	COL	18	0	19	80	14	8	3	0%	1.1	16.9%	9.4%	7.5%	3.3%	5.03	5.06	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	COL	21	0	22	93	16	9	3	0%	1.0	17.1%	9.6%	7.5%	3.4%	5.07	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	0	41	173	29	16	6	0%	1.0	17.0%	9.5%	7.5%	3.4%	5.05	4.72	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	142	78	29	0%	1.0	17.0%	9.5%	7.5%	3.4%	5.05	4.72	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		147	0	189	819	173	64	20	0%	1.3	21.2%	7.8%	13.3%	2.4%	3.33	3.65	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		155	0	200	865	183	68	21	0%	1.3	21.2%	7.8%	13.3%	2.4%	3.33	3.65	-1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 10 IPFIP 7.32 → 7.62 (+0.30)K% 9.4% → 8.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	9.38%	—	×0.860	8.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×0.900	11.25%
HR / BF /BF	6.25%	÷1.000	×1.100	6.88%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 7.32 → 7.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHartford Yard Goats · 45 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.38 (+0.46)K% 24.6% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.60%	—	×0.810	19.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.02%	—	×1.100	8.82%
HR / BF /BF	1.60%	÷1.255	×1.200	1.53%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 22 IPFIP 4.06 → 4.35 (+0.29)K% 22.7% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.68%	—	×0.860	19.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.28%	—	×0.900	8.35%
HR / BF /BF	3.09%	÷1.017	×1.100	3.35%

Result: FIP 4.06 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Spokane Indians · 39 IPFIP 1.41 → 2.32 (+0.91)K% 36.1% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.13%	—	×0.770	27.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.16%	—	×1.150	5.94%
HR / BF /BF	1.29%	÷1.086	×1.250	1.49%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 1.41 → 2.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHartford Yard Goats · 20 IPFIP 3.56 → 4.47 (+0.91)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.87%	—	×1.100	11.96%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷0.916	×1.200	2.85%

Result: FIP 3.56 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFresno Grizzlies · 51 IPFIP 2.15 → 3.02 (+0.87)K% 30.4% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.37%	—	×0.740	22.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.67%	—	×1.180	5.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.87%	÷1.186	×1.300	2.05%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 2.15 → 3.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Skipper (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	16.3%	9.2%	3.2%	—	5.09	17.0%	7.5%	82	+0.04	—	—	—
Ozzie Mendez L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	14.6%	6.7%	2.6%	.269	3.99	11.3%	3.0%	68	-0.17	3.95	161	88
Doug Slaten L 2007 · 4.08 FIP	27	SU	4.08	17.2%	8.6%	2.5%	.316	3.81	17.6%	8.2%	73	-0.27	3.22	139	87
George Sherrill L 2004 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	15.4%	7.7%	2.9%	.273	2.90	28.3%	18.2%	105	-1.46	2.74	323	87
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	84
Michael Johnson L 2018 · 5.19 FIP	27	SU	5.19	13.4%	10.0%	3.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	256	83
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	82
Jeremy Horst L 2013 · 4.46 FIP	27	SU	4.46	17.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.356	3.92	17.2%	5.4%	108	-0.54	2.12	181	82
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	82
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	82
Juan Martinez L 2019 · 4.81 FIP	27	SU	4.81	14.4%	9.2%	3.2%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	273	82
Colt Hynes L 2013 · 4.76 FIP	28	SU	4.76	15.5%	8.3%	3.5%	.361	3.49	19.3%	12.8%	96	-1.27	3.42	169	81
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	81
Bryan Harper L 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.197	4.63	14.9%	1.0%	46	+0.50	4.13	133	81
Adrian Gusman L 2019 · 4.31 FIP	27	SU	4.31	17.9%	9.7%	2.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	141	81
Everett Teaford L 2011 · 5.47 FIP	27	SU	5.47	16.0%	8.0%	4.9%	.224	5.47	13.3%	5.3%	61	+0.00	4.42	208	80
Jose Meraz L 2015 · 4.71 FIP	27	SU	4.71	13.3%	12.0%	2.2%	.331	4.06	15.3%	6.7%	44	-0.65	3.78	110	79
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	79
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	79
Patrick Schuster L 2017 · 4.51 FIP	26	SU	4.51	19.8%	8.3%	3.7%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	160	78
Braulio Lara L 2016 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	17.7%	11.0%	2.5%	.289	5.80	19.8%	2.0%	40	+1.45	3.96	118	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	16.7%	9.4%	1.28	5.05
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*