Carson Skipper
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
+0.5
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'2" / 211 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.28
FIP4.28
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%12.9%
IP63
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 42 | 0 | 51 | 214 | 65 | 10 | 4 | 22.5% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 3.20 | 3.01 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 49 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 79 | 18 | 4 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 2.0% | 2.45 | 3.12 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 44 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 68 | 24 | 6 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | 2.97 | 3.79 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 3 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 1 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 9.53 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 58 | 24 | 7 | 22.0% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | COL | — | — | 68 | 297 | 59 | 28 | 7 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 4.72 | 3.93 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 58 | 24 | 7 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 57 | 24 | 7 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | COL | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 56 | 23 | 7 | 22.1% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | COL | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 54 | 23 | 7 | 22.0% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | COL | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 51 | 22 | 7 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | COL | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 49 | 22 | 7 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | COL | 52 | — | 52 | 217 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | COL | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 43 | 21 | 7 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | COL | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 40 | 20 | 7 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | COL | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 36 | 19 | 6 | 20.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 4.97 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 140 | 0 | 184 | 784 | 169 | 62 | 16 | 21.6% | 7.9% | 2.0% | 3.04 | 3.36 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 152 | 0 | 200 | 854 | 184 | 68 | 17 | 21.6% | 7.9% | 2.0% | 3.04 | 3.36 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carson Skipper (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.28 | 22.0% | 9.1% | 2.7% | — | 4.33 | 22.2% | 13.0% | 183 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 91 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 90 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .272 | 5.26 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.00 | 3.88 | 256 | 90 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 90 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 88 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2028 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 86 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 86 |
| Wandy Peralta L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .257 | 4.72 | 17.1% | 6.7% | 127 | +0.81 | 2.70 | 655 | 86 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 86 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 85 |
| Sean Mellen L 2024 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 84 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.57 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 61 | +1.52 | 3.09 | 451 | 84 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .331 | 4.53 | 17.4% | -0.3% | 22 | +0.38 | 4.15 | 151 | 84 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 84 |
| Luis González L 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.33 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 1.9% | .290 | 5.07 | 24.6% | 16.7% | 74 | +1.74 | 3.19 | 416 | 84 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.50 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .282 | 4.14 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 87 | +0.64 | 3.50 | 300 | 84 |
| Patrick Schuster L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.42 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 160 | 83 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.2% | .226 | 5.06 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.32 | 2.02 | 280 | 83 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.59 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .264 | 5.75 | 12.0% | 0.6% | 30 | +2.16 | 3.29 | 142 | 83 |
| Logan Darnell L 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.15 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 1.0% | .316 | 4.60 | 12.2% | 5.5% | 305 | +1.45 | 3.15 | 430 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.4M |
| Totals | $4M | $8M | +$4M | ||