Carson Skipper — OGILVIE

Carson Skipper P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 211 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION11 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99108vR 116

ERA4.34

FIP4.34

K%20.1%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	2	0	2	7	2	0	0	0%	1.0	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.69	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	2	0	2	7	2	0	0	0%	1.0	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	42	0	51	214	65	10	4	0%	1.2	22.5%	5.5%	17.0%	2.0%	3.20	3.02	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	42	0	51	214	65	10	4	0%	1.2	22.5%	5.5%	17.0%	2.0%	3.20	3.02	—
2023	23	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	42	0	51	214	65	10	4	0%	1.2	30.4%	4.7%	25.7%	1.9%	3.20	2.15	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	59	247	79	18	4	0%	1.2	25.0%	8.2%	16.8%	2.0%	2.45	3.12	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	59	247	79	18	4	0%	1.2	25.0%	8.2%	16.8%	2.0%	2.45	3.12	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	59	247	79	18	4	0%	1.2	32.0%	7.3%	24.7%	1.6%	2.45	2.21	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	67	284	68	24	6	0%	1.5	19.5%	8.7%	10.9%	2.2%	2.97	3.73	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	67	284	68	24	6	0%	1.5	19.5%	8.7%	10.9%	2.2%	2.97	3.73	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	67	284	68	24	6	0%	1.5	23.9%	8.5%	15.5%	2.1%	2.97	3.31	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	10	0	11	67	8	9	4	0%	1.1	7.8%	11.2%	-3.5%	6.9%	11.12	7.64	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	10	0	11	67	8	9	4	0%	1.1	7.8%	11.2%	-3.5%	6.9%	11.12	7.64	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	ROK RAW	COL	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	COL	9	0	10	64	6	8	4	0%	1.1	9.4%	12.5%	-3.1%	6.2%	12.19	7.32	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	COL	6	0	6	27	5	2	1	0%	1.1	20.1%	8.3%	11.8%	2.7%	4.34	4.34	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	18	94	13	11	5	—	—	14.3%	12.0%	2.3%	5.1%	8.70	6.46	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	COL	66	0	69	291	59	25	8	0%	1.0	20.4%	8.5%	11.9%	2.8%	4.36	4.38	+0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	COL	64	0	67	282	58	25	8	0%	1.0	20.5%	8.7%	11.8%	2.9%	4.42	4.46	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	COL	61	0	64	270	55	24	8	0%	1.0	20.4%	9.0%	11.5%	3.1%	4.51	4.58	-0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	COL	28	0	29	122	25	10	3	0%	1.0	20.4%	8.5%	11.9%	2.8%	4.36	4.38	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	COL	40	0	42	177	36	15	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.7%	11.8%	2.9%	4.42	4.46	+0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	COL	45	0	47	198	41	18	6	0%	1.0	20.4%	9.0%	11.5%	3.1%	4.51	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		113	0	118	500	102	44	15	0%	1.0	20.5%	8.8%	11.7%	3.0%	4.44	4.11	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	74	25	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.8%	11.7%	3.0%	4.44	4.11	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		147	0	189	819	173	64	20	0%	1.3	21.1%	7.8%	13.2%	2.4%	3.33	3.65	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		155	0	200	865	182	68	21	0%	1.3	21.1%	7.8%	13.2%	2.4%	3.33	3.65	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Skipper (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	20.1%	8.3%	2.7%	—	4.47	20.5%	11.7%	200	+0.13	—	—	—
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	26	SU	3.77	20.5%	6.9%	2.8%	.287	3.21	22.3%	9.6%	66	-0.56	2.81	159	92
Greg Nappo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	22.7%	7.5%	2.2%	.267	5.25	16.5%	5.9%	79	+1.88	3.37	144	89
Michael Johnson L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	21.7%	9.5%	3.1%	.272	5.19	13.4%	3.4%	67	+0.99	3.92	256	88
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	85
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	85
Scott Alexander L 2015 · 3.51 FIP	26	SU	3.51	17.6%	6.7%	1.9%	.240	3.30	19.9%	10.8%	184	-0.21	2.90	426	84
Jason Gurka L 2015 · 3.15 FIP	27	SU	3.15	17.5%	7.0%	1.2%	.303	3.25	23.4%	17.6%	95	+0.10	2.82	183	84
Wandy Peralta L 2017 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	21.7%	8.7%	2.8%	.257	4.77	17.1%	6.7%	127	+0.85	2.69	725	84
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	84
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	83
Elvis Araujo L 2016 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	21.0%	9.8%	2.8%	.308	5.18	22.9%	11.1%	38	+1.09	2.46	120	83
Patrick Schuster L 2017 · 4.51 FIP	26	SU	4.51	19.8%	8.3%	3.7%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	160	83
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	83
Hayden Howard L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	25	SU	3.76	17.5%	8.4%	1.9%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	200	83
Brian Flynn L 2016 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	21.3%	11.1%	2.0%	.258	4.39	16.6%	8.2%	198	+0.59	3.80	277	83
Bryan Harper L 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.197	4.63	14.9%	1.0%	46	+0.50	4.13	133	82
Gabriel Sequeira L 2023 · 3.19 FIP	25	SU	3.19	21.0%	8.8%	1.4%	.276	4.92	23.0%	2.4%	14	+1.73	2.62	160	82
Ozzie Mendez L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	14.6%	6.7%	2.6%	.269	3.99	11.3%	3.0%	68	-0.17	3.95	161	82
Josh Osich L 2015 · 3.41 FIP	26	SU	3.41	21.2%	7.0%	2.2%	.241	4.68	18.1%	7.1%	137	+1.27	3.41	315	82
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	20.4%	8.6%	1.12	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19