Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rays 1 | 11 | 0 | 19 | 84 | 20 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 16.2% | 19.3% | -3.2% | 0.0% | 2.89 | 4.18 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rays 1 | 11 | 0 | 19 | 84 | 20 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 23.8% | 15.5% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 2.89 | 3.05 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rays 2 | 14 | 13 | 62 | 259 | 68 | 30 | 0 | 93% | 4.4 | 17.9% | 14.5% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 2.90 | 3.43 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rays 2 | 14 | 13 | 62 | 259 | 68 | 30 | 0 | 93% | 4.4 | 26.3% | 11.6% | 14.7% | 0.0% | 2.90 | 2.36 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 7 | 48 | 194 | 64 | 14 | 3 | 58% | 4.0 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 2.1% | 2.62 | 3.40 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 7 | 48 | 194 | 64 | 14 | 3 | 58% | 4.0 | 33.0% | 7.2% | 25.8% | 1.5% | 2.62 | 2.12 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 26 | 19 | 108 | 463 | 123 | 51 | 8 | 73% | 4.2 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 3.74 | 4.48 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 26 | 19 | 108 | 463 | 123 | 51 | 8 | 73% | 4.2 | 26.6% | 11.0% | 15.6% | 1.7% | 3.74 | 3.20 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 2 | 78 | 335 | 82 | 35 | 12 | 6% | 2.2 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 3.71 | 4.97 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 2 | 78 | 335 | 82 | 35 | 12 | 6% | 2.2 | 24.5% | 10.4% | 14.0% | 3.6% | 3.71 | 4.35 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 1 | 62 | 261 | 58 | 22 | 3 | 2% | 1.5 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 1.1% | 3.79 | 3.31 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 1 | 62 | 261 | 58 | 22 | 3 | 2% | 1.5 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 13.8% | 1.1% | 3.79 | 2.92 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 29 | 3 | 46 | 201 | 56 | 35 | 4 | 10% | 1.6 | 24.5% | 18.3% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 3.55 | 4.72 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 29 | 3 | 46 | 201 | 56 | 35 | 4 | 10% | 1.6 | 27.9% | 17.4% | 10.4% | 2.0% | 3.55 | 4.09 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | SF | 122 | 0 | 128 | 542 | 124 | 86 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 15.9% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 5.05 | 5.05 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 122 | 0 | 128 | 542 | 125 | 81 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 15.0% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.95 | 4.94 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 120 | 0 | 126 | 534 | 123 | 78 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 14.6% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.92 | 4.93 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 61 | 39 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 15.0% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.95 | 4.94 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 80 | 0 | 84 | 355 | 82 | 52 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 14.6% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.92 | 4.93 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 139 | 0 | 145 | 614 | 142 | 91 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 14.8% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.93 | 4.55 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 125 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 14.8% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.93 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 169 | 45 | 422 | 1797 | 359 | 231 | 36 | 27% | 2.5 | 20.0% | 12.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | 3.43 | 4.14 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 80 | 21 | 200 | 852 | 170 | 109 | 17 | 27% | 2.5 | 20.0% | 12.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | 3.43 | 4.14 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Antonio Jimenez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.05 | 23.0% | 15.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.94 | 23.1% | 8.3% | 255 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Tommy Vail L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.91 | 27.5% | 15.3% | 2.2% | .237 | 5.18 | 19.7% | 3.3% | 81 | +1.27 | 3.91 | 151 | 73 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.35 | 20.5% | 15.0% | 3.8% | .307 | 3.48 | 21.1% | 12.6% | 150 | -1.87 | 2.34 | 338 | 71 |
| Adam Wolf L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.01 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 2.2% | .292 | 4.17 | 16.8% | 5.9% | 109 | +0.16 | 3.91 | 383 | 70 |
| Zack Thompson L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.59 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .355 | 4.75 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 107 | +0.16 | 2.03 | 402 | 70 |
| Anderson Polanco L 2026 · 6.02 FIP | 25 | SW | 6.02 | 19.9% | 20.9% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.41 | 18.9% | 2.6% | 47 | -0.61 | 4.00 | 316 | 69 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.37 | 16.7% | 11.9% | 3.9% | .273 | 6.05 | 16.6% | 6.2% | 129 | +0.68 | 3.58 | 371 | 68 |
| Ismael Guillón L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.31 | 19.8% | 14.8% | 1.8% | .342 | 4.77 | 20.7% | 8.4% | 30 | +0.46 | 4.28 | 193 | 68 |
| Lael Lockhart L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.22 | 22.6% | 12.9% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.47 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 271 | +1.25 | 3.71 | 484 | 67 |
| Alec Gamboa L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.37 | 14.8% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .287 | 4.11 | 16.6% | 3.2% | 169 | -1.26 | 1.46 | 404 | 67 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.57 | 25.3% | 15.3% | 3.0% | .284 | 5.07 | 23.3% | 7.2% | 42 | +0.50 | 3.33 | 152 | 67 |
| Chris Murphy L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 22.1% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .344 | 4.09 | 21.0% | 8.0% | 93 | +0.02 | 3.83 | 447 | 67 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.22 | 19.9% | 7.8% | 96 | +0.29 | 3.65 | 308 | 66 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.79 | 17.4% | 15.7% | 2.1% | .284 | 5.74 | 18.7% | -4.6% | 22 | +0.95 | 4.12 | 234 | 65 |
| Alex Winkelman L 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.24 | 18.5% | 17.4% | 0.9% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 246 | 65 |
| Nick Swiney L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.7% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .307 | 4.67 | 15.1% | 1.5% | 49 | -0.17 | 2.29 | 290 | 65 |
| Trent Szkutnik L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.35 | 18.4% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 429 | 65 |
| Andy Oliver L 2028 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.5% | .283 | 5.02 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.94 | 4.08 | 165 | 65 |
| Brad Hand L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.3% | .326 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.15 | 0.84 | 577 | 64 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 64 |
| Houston Harding L 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.80 | 17.9% | 15.0% | 4.2% | .307 | 4.93 | 14.8% | 2.9% | 135 | -0.87 | 3.39 | 232 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 128 | 23.0% | 15.2% | 1.07 | 4.97 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |