Dylan Smith
P
Sacramento River Cats
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 47 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 93
ERA4.03
FIP4.03
K%27.6%
BB%13.1%
K-BB%14.5%
ROS IP47
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6895.8
Whiff%
p5325.7%
K%
p5523.2%
xwOBA vs
p420.321
FB+3.0 (57%)
SL (34%)
SI (6%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 88 | 367 | 89 | 21 | 6 | 95% | 4.0 | 19.0% | 6.9% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 3.77 | 4.07 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 88 | 367 | 89 | 21 | 6 | 95% | 4.0 | 24.3% | 5.7% | 18.5% | 1.6% | 3.77 | 2.68 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 11 | 37 | 171 | 38 | 13 | 3 | 92% | 3.1 | 15.3% | 5.0% | 10.3% | 4.2% | 5.30 | 4.76 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 11 | 37 | 171 | 38 | 13 | 3 | 92% | 3.1 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 14.6% | 1.8% | 5.30 | 3.15 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 14 | 13 | 57 | 255 | 59 | 31 | 7 | 93% | 4.1 | 17.8% | 14.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.40 | 5.79 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 14 | 13 | 57 | 255 | 59 | 31 | 7 | 93% | 4.1 | 23.1% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.25 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 5 levels | 37 | 1 | 53 | 199 | 61 | 22 | 1 | 3% | 1.4 | 33.5% | 12.2% | 21.3% | 1.2% | 2.05 | 2.48 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 5 levels | 37 | 1 | 53 | 199 | 61 | 22 | 1 | 3% | 1.4 | 30.7% | 11.1% | 19.6% | 0.5% | 2.05 | 2.28 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 29 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 36 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 3.82 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SF | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 55 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.6% | 13.1% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SF | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 55 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.6% | 13.1% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | SF | — | — | 80 | 337 | 91 | 41 | 10 | — | — | 26.9% | 12.1% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 3.94 | 4.08 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | SF | — | — | 60 | 251 | 91 | 41 | 10 | — | — | 36.1% | 16.3% | 19.8% | 3.9% | 5.29 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SF | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 68 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.3% | 12.5% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SF | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 65 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SF | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 65 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.3% | 12.5% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SF | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 61 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 170 | 0 | 182 | 765 | 197 | 93 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 12.2% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.05 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 187 | 0 | 200 | 840 | 216 | 102 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 12.2% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.05 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 114 | 46 | 269 | 1131 | 241 | 109 | 36 | 40% | 2.4 | 21.3% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 3.79 | 4.29 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 34 | 200 | 842 | 179 | 81 | 27 | 40% | 2.4 | 21.3% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 3.79 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dylan Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 28.6% | 13.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.46 | 27.1% | 14.7% | 115 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| José Cisnero R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 72 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.52 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .245 | 5.01 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.49 | 3.00 | 246 | 72 |
| Peyton Gray R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 70 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 70 |
| Kyle Keller R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.66 | 28.7% | 9.4% | 3.3% | .293 | 4.69 | 28.0% | 17.8% | 52 | +1.03 | 2.67 | 296 | 69 |
| James Bourque R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.18 | 25.7% | 13.3% | 2.8% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 312 | 69 |
| Dugan Darnell R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.55 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .302 | 3.24 | 24.5% | 15.5% | 94 | -1.31 | 2.35 | 238 | 69 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.57 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .299 | 4.42 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 87 | -0.15 | 3.74 | 163 | 68 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 68 |
| Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.49 | 26.9% | 10.9% | 4.2% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 275 | 68 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.69 | 26.8% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.84 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 66 | +0.15 | 3.31 | 166 | 68 |
| José Fermin R 2024 · 3.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.43 | 25.9% | 13.1% | 1.6% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 142 | 68 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 25.8% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .214 | 3.04 | 25.0% | 15.3% | 55 | -0.50 | 2.59 | 156 | 68 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.89 | 25.1% | 13.4% | 2.2% | .310 | 4.58 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 79 | +0.69 | 3.89 | 272 | 68 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 68 |
| Pierce Johnson R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.20 | 27.8% | 11.7% | 1.8% | .374 | 3.75 | 25.0% | 13.7% | 86 | +0.55 | 2.83 | 577 | 67 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 67 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 67 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 67 |
| Cody Carroll R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .282 | 7.04 | 24.3% | 12.3% | 24 | +3.27 | 3.73 | 311 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 27.6% | 12.8% | 1.17 | 4.40 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |