Dylan Smith — OGILVIE

Dylan Smith P San Francisco Giants

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA3.79

FIP3.79

K%27.0%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%15.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5060

CTRL4050

CMD4545

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6595.6

Whiff%

p5325.8%

p7627.0%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

FB+3.0 (57%)

SL (34%)

SI (6%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	88	367	89	21	6	95%	4.0	19.0%	6.9%	12.1%	2.5%	3.77	3.77	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	88	367	89	21	6	95%	4.0	24.3%	5.7%	18.5%	1.6%	3.77	2.68	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	11	37	171	38	13	3	92%	3.1	15.3%	5.0%	10.3%	3.7%	5.30	4.45	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	11	37	171	38	13	3	92%	3.1	15.3%	5.0%	10.3%	3.7%	5.30	4.45	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	11	37	171	38	13	3	92%	3.1	22.2%	7.6%	14.6%	1.8%	5.30	3.15	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	14	13	57	255	59	31	7	93%	4.1	17.8%	14.0%	3.8%	3.9%	4.40	5.49	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	14	13	57	255	59	31	7	93%	4.1	17.8%	14.0%	3.8%	3.9%	4.40	5.49	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	14	13	57	255	59	31	7	93%	4.1	23.1%	12.2%	11.0%	2.7%	4.40	4.25	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	5 levels	37	1	53	199	61	22	1	3%	1.4	32.6%	11.4%	21.2%	1.0%	2.05	2.35	+1.4
2025	25	MIX MLE	5 levels	37	1	53	199	61	22	1	3%	1.4	32.6%	11.4%	21.2%	1.0%	2.05	2.35	+1.4
2025	25	MIX RAW	5 levels	37	1	53	199	61	22	1	3%	1.4	30.7%	11.1%	19.6%	0.5%	2.05	2.28	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			43	0	47	200	45	19	3	0%	1.1	22.5%	9.5%	13.0%	1.5%	2.66	3.23	+0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	51	0	55	235	64	24	5	0%	1.1	25.6%	9.8%	15.8%	2.3%	3.46	3.45	+0.7
YTD	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	51	0	55	235	64	24	5	0%	1.1	25.6%	9.8%	15.8%	2.3%	3.46	3.45	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	SF	15	0	20	83	23	10	2	0%	1.4	27.7%	12.0%	15.7%	2.4%	3.98	3.61	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	SF	36	0	34	152	41	14	3	0%	1.0	27.0%	9.2%	17.8%	2.0%	3.15	3.07	+0.6
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	SF	36	0	34	152	41	14	3	0%	1.0	27.0%	9.2%	17.8%	2.0%	3.15	3.07	+0.6
ROS	26	MLB MLE	SF	5	0	5	21	6	2	1	0%	1.0	27.0%	11.3%	15.7%	2.8%	3.79	3.79	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	SF	5	0	5	21	6	2	1	0%	1.0	27.0%	11.3%	15.7%	2.8%	3.79	3.79	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	60	256	70	26	6	—	—	27.2%	10.3%	16.9%	2.2%	3.49	3.48	+0.8
FULL	26	MLB A+C	SF	—	—	39	166	70	26	6	—	—	42.0%	15.9%	26.1%	3.4%	5.29	3.42	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SF	56	0	59	247	67	27	7	0%	1.0	27.2%	11.0%	16.2%	2.7%	4.05	4.06	+0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	SF	54	0	57	240	64	26	7	0%	1.1	26.8%	11.0%	15.8%	2.8%	4.13	4.17	+0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	SF	53	0	56	236	64	26	6	0%	1.1	27.2%	11.0%	16.2%	2.7%	4.05	4.06	+0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	SF	51	0	54	228	61	25	6	0%	1.1	26.8%	11.0%	15.8%	2.8%	4.13	4.17	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		152	0	162	684	176	72	16	0%	1.1	25.7%	10.6%	15.1%	2.4%	3.66	3.59	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	845	217	89	20	0%	1.1	25.7%	10.6%	15.1%	2.4%	3.66	3.59	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		136	46	290	1227	266	115	33	34%	2.1	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	2.7%	3.72	3.93	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		94	32	200	845	183	79	23	34%	2.1	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	2.7%	3.72	3.93	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.18	28.0%	11.9%	2.8%	—	4.11	27.0%	16.0%	115	-0.07	—	—	—
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.15	246	76
José Cisnero R 2016 · 4.50 FIP	27	SU	4.50	26.1%	11.7%	3.9%	.367	3.90	24.5%	13.3%	75	-0.60	2.26	279	75
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.58	19.9%	3.7%	131	+0.74	3.70	201	74
Shane Smith R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	23	SU	3.52	28.1%	10.4%	2.7%	.259	3.59	22.9%	13.1%	284	+0.07	3.01	342	73
Kyle Keller R 2019 · 3.83 FIP	26	SU	3.83	28.7%	9.4%	3.6%	.293	4.88	28.0%	17.8%	52	+1.05	2.72	296	73
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	72
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	72
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	71
Neil Ramírez R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	26	SU	3.21	25.0%	10.0%	1.7%	.289	4.75	28.3%	17.6%	151	+1.54	3.21	220	71
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	71
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	71
Matt Barnes R 2016 · 3.51 FIP	26	SU	3.51	24.7%	10.5%	2.1%	.311	2.96	34.4%	23.2%	196	-0.55	2.54	495	71
James Bourque R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	25.7%	13.3%	2.8%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	312	71
Maikel Cleto R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	25.8%	12.1%	2.4%	.214	3.13	25.0%	15.3%	55	-0.66	2.59	156	71
Michael Dimock R 2016 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	26.8%	9.8%	3.3%	.289	3.79	20.9%	11.9%	66	-0.12	3.08	166	71
Pierce Johnson R 2017 · 3.09 FIP	26	SU	3.09	27.8%	11.7%	1.6%	.374	3.71	25.0%	13.7%	86	+0.62	2.75	593	71
Cade Smith R 2023 · 3.44 FIP	24	SU	3.44	29.0%	9.7%	2.9%	.333	1.56	35.2%	28.9%	215	-1.88	1.03	379	70
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	70
Dugan Darnell R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	22.6%	9.6%	4.1%	.302	3.25	23.1%	15.4%	94	-1.39	2.50	238	70
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	27.4%	11.3%	1.08	4.12
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Ryan Buchter ('19)	1.1	53	26.7%	10.8%	1.10	2.87