Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 1 | 48 | 219 | 57 | 20 | 15 | 2% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 15.0% | 7.5% | 6.61 | 6.35 | -1.0 |
| 2015 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 1 | 48 | 219 | 57 | 20 | 15 | 2% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 9.1% | 16.9% | 6.8% | 6.61 | 6.06 | -0.8 |
| 2016 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 58 | 253 | 69 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.4% | 9.6% | 16.8% | 1.8% | 4.19 | 3.10 | +1.0 |
| 2016 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 58 | 253 | 69 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.3% | 9.5% | 17.8% | 2.0% | 4.19 | 3.08 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 64 | 264 | 102 | 20 | 12 | 0% | 0.9 | 38.1% | 7.4% | 30.7% | 5.6% | 3.82 | 3.88 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 64 | 264 | 102 | 20 | 12 | 0% | 0.9 | 38.6% | 7.6% | 31.1% | 4.5% | 3.82 | 3.29 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 31 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 65 | 0 | 63 | 250 | 90 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.0% | 6.8% | 29.2% | 2.6% | 2.14 | 2.34 | +1.7 |
| 2018 | 31 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 65 | 0 | 63 | 250 | 90 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.0% | 6.8% | 29.2% | 2.4% | 2.14 | 2.29 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 32 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 60 | 0 | 61 | 243 | 101 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 41.6% | 4.9% | 36.6% | 0.9% | 1.19 | 0.70 | +2.7 |
| 2019 | 32 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 60 | 0 | 61 | 243 | 101 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 41.6% | 4.9% | 36.6% | 0.8% | 1.19 | 0.79 | +2.7 |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 6 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.7 | 32.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 4.0% | 12.46 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 6 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.7 | 32.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 4.0% | 12.46 | 5.18 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 35 | MIX | 4 levels | 17 | 2 | 15 | 65 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 12% | 0.9 | 24.6% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 2.93 | 4.07 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 35 | MIX | 4 levels | 17 | 2 | 15 | 65 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 12% | 0.9 | 24.6% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 2.93 | 4.08 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 36 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 61 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 80 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.5% | 14.2% | 17.3% | 3.5% | 3.28 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 36 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 61 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 80 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.5% | 14.2% | 17.3% | 3.5% | 3.28 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 37 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 61 | 0 | 62 | 237 | 85 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.9% | 9.7% | 26.2% | 1.2% | 1.17 | 1.98 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 37 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 61 | 0 | 62 | 237 | 85 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.9% | 9.7% | 26.2% | 1.3% | 1.17 | 2.09 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 38 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 42 | 182 | 53 | 18 | 9 | 0% | 0.8 | 29.2% | 9.6% | 19.7% | 5.4% | 5.10 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 38 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 42 | 182 | 53 | 18 | 9 | 0% | 0.8 | 29.1% | 9.9% | 19.2% | 4.9% | 5.10 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 28 | 0 | 25 | 107 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 32.6% | 8.1% | 24.4% | 2.3% | 4.68 | 2.66 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 39 | MLB | LAA | 19 | 0 | 20 | 83 | 26 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.3% | 9.6% | 21.7% | 3.3% | 3.21 | 3.46 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 39 | MLB | LAA | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 26 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.3% | 9.6% | 21.7% | 3.3% | 3.21 | 3.46 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 39 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 45 | 190 | 61 | 16 | 7 | — | — | 32.1% | 8.4% | 23.7% | 3.5% | 4.03 | 3.01 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 39 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 41 | 172 | 61 | 16 | 7 | — | — | 35.5% | 9.3% | 26.2% | 3.9% | 4.43 | 3.42 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | LAA | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.0% | 10.3% | 19.7% | 3.7% | 4.02 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | LAA | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.0% | 10.3% | 19.7% | 3.7% | 4.02 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 511 | 0 | 492 | 2044 | 679 | 186 | 69 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.2% | 9.1% | 24.1% | 3.4% | 3.36 | 3.31 | +12.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 208 | 0 | 200 | 830 | 276 | 76 | 28 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.2% | 9.1% | 24.1% | 3.4% | 3.36 | 3.31 | +4.9 | ||
| Career | — | 517 | 3 | 502 | 2099 | 689 | 189 | 72 | 1% | 1.0 | 32.8% | 9.0% | 23.8% | 3.4% | 3.41 | 3.34 | +12.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 206 | 1 | 200 | 836 | 274 | 75 | 29 | 1% | 1.0 | 32.8% | 9.0% | 23.8% | 3.4% | 3.41 | 3.34 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kirby Yates (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.02 | 30.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | — | 4.29 | 30.0% | 19.7% | 35 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Jason Grilli R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.13 | 32.3% | 12.4% | 4.0% | .264 | 5.63 | 26.1% | 16.3% | 40 | +1.50 | 1.98 | 133 | 62 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.44 | 26.1% | 12.0% | 1.9% | .288 | 3.51 | 25.4% | 14.2% | 167 | +0.07 | 2.67 | 295 | 61 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.72 | 25.5% | 11.3% | 2.5% | .258 | 4.35 | 21.6% | 11.7% | 50 | +0.63 | 3.72 | 164 | 60 |
| Darren O'Day R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.59 | 27.7% | 8.5% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.04 | 215 | 49 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.04 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.04 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 0.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 102 | 49 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.77 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 174 | 39 |
| Matt Belisle R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.59 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 174 | 36 |
| Gaudencio Aguirre R 2029 · 3.31 FIP | 42 | SU | 3.31 | 14.8% | 8.6% | 0.7% | .293 | 3.98 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 75 | +0.67 | 3.31 | 123 | 34 |
| Neal Cotts L 2024 · 3.24 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.24 | 25.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 156 | 33 |
| Luis Ayala R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.94 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 119 | 32 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.08 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 0.9% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 219 | 32 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.88 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 31 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.66 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 119 | 29 |
| Daniel Bard R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.81 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 1.7% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 200 | 27 |
| Hector Navarro R 2024 · 3.41 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.41 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 24 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 217 | 12 |
| Logan Duran R 2024 · 3.58 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.58 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 187 | 11 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.62 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 199 | 0 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 38 | 30.4% | 10.2% | 1.38 | 3.89 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |
| Michael Feliz ('21) | 5 | 47 | 30.5% | 9.8% | 1.48 | 5.05 |
| Brad Peacock ('19) | 4 | 80 | 28.7% | 9.2% | 1.18 | 3.48 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |