Justin Wrobleski

P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 27 LHP 6'1" / 194 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.7 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX3 levels	28	24	132	4.30	3.77	23.4%	8.5%	1.8	K 20.2% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.13
2025	25	MIX2 levels	35	12	118	4.26	3.44	24.5%	7.8%	1.6	K 23.1% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.58
2026	26	MIX2 levels	29	22	141	3.69	3.97	20.5%	5.1%	1.6	K 20.4% · BB 5.2% · FIP 3.95
2027PROJ	27	MLBLAD	20	20	123	4.23	4.22	21.3%	5.9%	1.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBLAD	20	20	117	4.35	4.38	21.2%	6.1%	0.8
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBLAD	19	19	112	4.47	4.54	20.6%	6.3%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.872First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo52

K%38

xwOBA vs38

Whiff%17

CompsCasey Fossum (age 27) · Jorge De La Rosa (age 27) · Alex Wood (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.23

FIP4.22

K%21.3%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%15.3%

Proj IP123

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p1720.7%

p3820.4%

xwOBA vs

p380.326

SL+3.8 (32%)

FB+3.6 (57%)

CH (5%)

SI (8%)

CU (5%)

CT (1%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.872 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$8M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$13M	+$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	22	87	26	5	1	77%	1.7	25.1%	0.0%	25.1%	0.0%	2.91	0.98	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	22	87	26	5	1	77%	1.7	29.9%	5.7%	24.1%	1.1%	2.91	1.99	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	25	23	102	420	109	35	6	92%	4.1	20.0%	9.6%	10.4%	1.9%	2.90	3.66	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	25	23	102	420	109	35	6	92%	4.1	26.0%	8.3%	17.6%	1.4%	2.90	2.76	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	24	132	555	130	47	16	86%	4.7	20.2%	8.4%	11.9%	3.1%	4.30	4.13	+1.2
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	24	132	555	130	47	16	86%	4.7	20.2%	8.4%	11.9%	3.1%	4.30	4.13	+1.2
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	24	132	555	130	47	16	86%	4.7	23.4%	8.5%	15.0%	2.9%	4.30	3.77	+1.8
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	12	118	503	123	39	13	34%	3.4	23.1%	7.3%	15.8%	2.7%	4.26	3.58	+1.4
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	12	118	503	123	39	13	34%	3.4	23.1%	7.3%	15.8%	2.7%	4.26	3.58	+1.4
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	12	118	503	123	39	13	34%	3.4	24.5%	7.8%	16.7%	2.6%	4.26	3.44	+1.6
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	22	141	585	120	30	21	76%	4.9	20.4%	5.2%	15.2%	3.5%	3.69	3.95	+1.6
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	22	141	585	120	30	21	76%	4.9	20.4%	5.2%	15.2%	3.5%	3.69	3.95	+1.6
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	22	141	585	120	30	21	76%	4.9	20.5%	5.1%	15.4%	3.6%	3.69	3.97	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			60	30	243	1012	220	62	36	50%	4.0	21.7%	6.1%	15.6%	3.6%	4.15	3.98	+2.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	LAD	20	20	123	519	111	31	17	100%	6.2	21.3%	5.9%	15.3%	3.3%	4.23	4.22	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	LAD	21	21	123	520	110	32	17	100%	5.9	21.2%	6.1%	15.1%	3.4%	4.27	4.30	+0.9
2029	29	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	118	497	102	31	17	100%	5.9	20.6%	6.3%	14.3%	3.5%	4.39	4.46	+0.6
2030	30	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	111	467	93	31	17	100%	6.1	19.9%	6.6%	13.3%	3.7%	4.56	4.67	+0.3
2031	31	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	103	435	83	30	17	100%	6.1	19.1%	7.0%	12.2%	3.9%	4.76	4.90	0.0
2032	32	MLB MLE	LAD	16	16	95	403	74	30	17	100%	6.0	18.3%	7.4%	11.0%	4.2%	5.00	5.16	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	LAD	20	20	117	494	105	30	17	100%	5.8	21.2%	6.1%	15.1%	3.5%	4.35	4.38	+0.8
2029	29	MLB CTX	LAD	19	19	112	473	97	30	17	100%	5.9	20.6%	6.3%	14.3%	3.6%	4.47	4.54	+0.6
2030	30	MLB CTX	LAD	18	18	105	443	88	29	17	100%	5.8	19.9%	6.6%	13.3%	3.9%	4.65	4.76	+0.3
2031	31	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	98	414	79	29	17	100%	6.1	19.1%	7.0%	12.2%	4.1%	4.85	4.99	0.0
2032	32	MLB CTX	LAD	15	15	91	384	70	28	17	100%	6.1	18.3%	7.4%	11.0%	4.4%	5.10	5.26	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		147	117	765	3218	659	208	121	80%	5.2	20.5%	6.5%	14.0%	3.8%	4.50	4.26	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	31	200	841	172	54	32	80%	5.2	20.5%	6.5%	14.0%	3.8%	4.50	4.26	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		130	91	516	2150	454	154	59	70%	4.0	21.1%	7.2%	14.0%	2.7%	3.79	3.73	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	35	200	834	176	60	23	70%	4.0	21.1%	7.2%	14.0%	2.7%	3.79	3.73	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Wrobleski (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.22	21.3%	5.9%	3.3%	—	4.47	20.6%	14.2%	352	+0.25	—	—	—
Casey Fossum L 2005 · 4.19 FIP	27	SP-	4.19	17.7%	7.9%	2.9%	.287	4.77	14.9%	5.8%	247	+0.58	3.50	782	68
Jorge De La Rosa L 2008 · 3.77 FIP	27	SP-	3.77	22.4%	10.3%	2.3%	.310	3.70	23.0%	13.2%	366	-0.07	3.24	1,537	67
Alex Wood L 2018 · 3.16 FIP	27	SP-	3.16	21.2%	5.5%	2.1%	.285	3.70	24.6%	18.1%	187	+0.54	2.66	1,258	66
Ben Shields L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	25	SP-	3.23	25.3%	8.2%	2.2%	.273	3.02	23.5%	13.3%	43	-0.21	3.02	147	66
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	66
Brant Hurter L 2024 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP-	3.80	19.7%	5.4%	3.1%	.298	3.08	21.7%	12.6%	98	-0.72	2.84	440	65
David Peterson L 2023 · 4.14 FIP	27	SP-	4.14	25.1%	10.7%	3.3%	.356	3.54	20.5%	11.2%	438	-0.60	2.81	1,078	65
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	64
Steven Brault L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	19.8%	10.1%	3.2%	.301	3.81	18.8%	8.2%	70	-0.66	3.12	691	63
Drew Parrish L 2024 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP-	4.66	20.2%	4.8%	4.9%	.290	4.93	15.1%	5.7%	70	+0.27	3.47	522	63
Daniel Lynch IV L 2024 · 4.14 FIP	27	SP-	4.14	18.1%	6.4%	3.2%	.268	4.53	15.7%	7.7%	154	+0.39	2.21	764	63
Manny Banuelos L 2018 · 3.48 FIP	27	SP-	3.48	23.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.338	5.89	18.7%	5.9%	51	+2.41	2.95	486	62
Matthew Boyd L 2018 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	22.4%	7.2%	4.0%	.252	4.32	26.2%	19.5%	324	+0.02	2.22	1,457	62
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.78	21.8%	6.9%	51	+0.77	3.51	432	62
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	61
Hogan Harris L 2024 · 4.46 FIP	27	SP-	4.46	20.3%	11.8%	2.9%	.312	3.42	26.7%	15.1%	150	-1.04	3.09	501	61
Matt Tomshaw L 2016 · 3.04 FIP	27	SP-	3.04	22.7%	5.4%	2.1%	.301	3.56	16.1%	11.0%	423	+0.52	3.04	681	60
Tyler Anderson L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.315	4.35	20.7%	12.2%	256	+0.33	3.10	1,288	60
Phil Pfeifer L 2019 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP-	3.61	21.9%	8.5%	2.4%	.298	5.65	19.5%	4.7%	35	+2.04	3.61	307	60
Patrick Corbin L 2016 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP-	4.54	18.7%	9.1%	3.4%	.317	3.12	27.0%	20.3%	592	-1.42	2.30	2,144	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	102	20.6%	6.5%	1.39	4.41
Anthony DeSclafani ('25)	4.9	109	20.9%	6.4%	1.34	4.24
Matt Shoemaker ('21)	3.3	83	21.0%	6.3%	1.36	4.24
Mike Minor ('22)	7.0	128	21.6%	7.0%	1.30	4.25
Jim McAndrew ('68-'74, 6 WAR*)	3.9	110	17.4%*	6.6%*	1.29*	4.35*
Ad Brennan ('10-'18, 6 WAR*)	3.4	113	18.9%*	6.9%*	1.31*	4.13*
Ray Washburn ('61-'70, 12 WAR*)	6.0	121	17.6%*	7.5%*	1.17*	4.17*