Justin Martinez
P
Arizona Diamondbacks
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.8 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 64 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9586vR 76
ERA3.54
FIP3.27
K%34.7%
BB%13.1%
K-BB%21.7%
ROS IP64
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p90100.0
Whiff%
p9037.3%
K%
p9032.8%
xwOBA vs
p830.280
FB+0.6 (60%)
SI (40%)
SL (9%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL D-backs 2 | 15 | 12 | 44 | 232 | 30 | 38 | 3 | 80% | 2.9 | 8.8% | 20.5% | -11.7% | 1.8% | 7.57 | 5.94 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL D-backs 2 | 15 | 12 | 44 | 232 | 30 | 38 | 3 | 80% | 2.9 | 12.9% | 16.4% | -3.4% | 1.3% | 7.57 | 5.21 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 15 | 10 | 52 | 236 | 71 | 33 | 0 | 67% | 3.5 | 20.5% | 17.5% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 3.12 | 3.59 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 15 | 10 | 52 | 236 | 71 | 33 | 0 | 67% | 3.5 | 30.1% | 14.0% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 3.12 | 2.27 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 7 | 7 | 23 | 107 | 24 | 15 | 1 | 100% | 3.3 | 16.6% | 16.5% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 6.65 | 4.58 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 7 | 7 | 23 | 107 | 24 | 15 | 1 | 100% | 3.3 | 22.4% | 14.0% | 8.4% | 0.9% | 6.65 | 3.53 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 0 | 38 | 169 | 62 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.9 | 29.7% | 14.1% | 15.6% | 1.6% | 3.32 | 3.24 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 0 | 38 | 169 | 62 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.9 | 36.7% | 13.0% | 23.7% | 1.2% | 3.32 | 2.26 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 59 | 283 | 81 | 57 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 21.0% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 5.61 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 59 | 283 | 81 | 57 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.6% | 20.1% | 8.5% | 1.8% | 5.61 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 70 | 0 | 79 | 336 | 105 | 33 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.5% | 9.7% | 19.8% | 0.6% | 2.50 | 2.18 | +2.6 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 70 | 0 | 79 | 336 | 105 | 33 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.2% | 9.8% | 21.4% | 0.9% | 2.50 | 2.19 | +2.6 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 1 | 17 | 73 | 23 | 11 | 1 | 5% | 0.9 | 32.8% | 16.4% | 16.4% | 1.4% | 3.63 | 3.19 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 1 | 17 | 73 | 23 | 11 | 1 | 5% | 0.9 | 31.5% | 15.1% | 16.4% | 1.4% | 3.63 | 3.10 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 63 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.7% | 13.1% | 21.7% | 1.9% | 3.54 | 3.27 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 61 | 0 | 64 | 271 | 92 | 34 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.8% | 12.6% | 21.2% | 2.0% | 3.47 | 3.35 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 60 | 0 | 63 | 267 | 88 | 33 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.0% | 12.4% | 20.6% | 2.2% | 3.49 | 3.46 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 87 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.8% | 12.6% | 21.2% | 2.1% | 3.50 | 3.38 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 84 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.0% | 12.4% | 20.6% | 2.2% | 3.52 | 3.49 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 206 | 0 | 219 | 943 | 298 | 115 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.6% | 12.2% | 19.4% | 1.7% | 3.62 | 2.91 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 0 | 200 | 861 | 272 | 105 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.6% | 12.2% | 19.4% | 1.7% | 3.62 | 2.91 | +5.8 | ||
| Career | — | 203 | 30 | 313 | 1436 | 333 | 234 | 17 | 15% | 1.5 | 23.2% | 16.3% | 6.9% | 1.2% | 4.37 | 3.85 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 130 | 19 | 200 | 918 | 213 | 150 | 11 | 15% | 1.5 | 23.2% | 16.3% | 6.9% | 1.2% | 4.37 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Martinez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.27 | 34.7% | 13.1% | 1.9% | — | 3.40 | 33.4% | 20.9% | 127 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| John McMillon R 2026 · 2.27 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.27 | 34.9% | 13.5% | 0.7% | .279 | 6.35 | 21.4% | 4.9% | 67 | +4.08 | 2.27 | 152 | 71 |
| Arodys Vizcaíno R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 27.5% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .321 | 3.49 | 26.4% | 17.8% | 96 | +0.20 | 2.25 | 183 | 69 |
| Alex Reyes R 2026 · 3.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.01 | 31.4% | 15.1% | 1.2% | .289 | 4.17 | 30.0% | 13.9% | 72 | +1.16 | 2.54 | 330 | 69 |
| Ben Heller R 2026 · 2.65 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.65 | 32.4% | 9.4% | 2.0% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 246 | 66 |
| Bruce Rondón R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.44 | 29.0% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .284 | 3.40 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 82 | -0.04 | 3.31 | 184 | 65 |
| Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.03 | 33.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .346 | 4.38 | 19.7% | 8.5% | 125 | +1.35 | 3.03 | 140 | 65 |
| Jon Edwards R 2028 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.54 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.7% | .264 | 2.30 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.24 | 2.30 | 132 | 65 |
| Jaden Hill R 2026 · 2.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.41 | 28.4% | 7.7% | 1.3% | .286 | 3.60 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 27 | +1.19 | 2.41 | 156 | 65 |
| Justin Grimm R 2027 · 2.93 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.93 | 32.8% | 12.3% | 1.9% | .250 | 4.11 | 26.1% | 15.2% | 157 | +1.18 | 2.93 | 335 | 65 |
| Chad Sobotka R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.91 | 29.4% | 11.9% | 1.4% | .206 | 4.44 | 23.2% | 11.1% | 89 | +1.53 | 2.91 | 278 | 64 |
| Trey Wingenter R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 33.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 293 | 64 |
| William Kempner R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.36 | 32.0% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 173 | 64 |
| Brian Ellington R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 27.5% | 14.3% | 1.6% | .252 | 5.05 | 24.6% | 9.0% | 97 | +1.56 | 2.75 | 233 | 64 |
| José Leclerc R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.14 | 33.4% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .292 | 3.49 | 27.3% | 16.7% | 48 | +0.35 | 1.48 | 527 | 63 |
| Grant Taylor R 2025 · 2.44 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.44 | 33.8% | 8.6% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.63 | 128 | 63 |
| Kevin Ginkel R 2026 · 2.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.92 | 35.4% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .255 | 3.55 | 26.2% | 15.9% | 104 | +0.63 | 2.35 | 431 | 63 |
| Ken Giles R 2026 · 2.60 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.60 | 35.7% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .342 | 2.37 | 33.0% | 26.3% | 166 | -0.23 | 1.97 | 368 | 63 |
| Dellin Betances R 2028 · 2.14 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.14 | 39.5% | 11.4% | 1.7% | .248 | 2.01 | 41.0% | 29.6% | 199 | -0.13 | 1.58 | 308 | 63 |
| Dylan Heid R 2026 · 2.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.71 | 29.4% | 12.5% | 0.9% | .337 | 3.68 | 18.5% | 4.2% | 64 | +0.97 | 2.71 | 135 | 63 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.72 | 28.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .282 | 4.81 | 20.3% | 2.9% | 127 | +1.09 | 3.72 | 197 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 57 | 33.7% | 12.7% | 0.80 | 3.50 |
| José Leclerc ('24) | 6 | 57 | 31.6% | 12.8% | 0.76 | 3.33 |
| Carl Edwards Jr. ('23) | 5 | 50 | 28.7% | 12.4% | 0.76 | 3.05 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Corey Knebel ('22) | 6 | 47 | 32.3% | 11.2% | 0.95 | 3.04 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |