Justin Martinez — OGILVIE

Justin Martinez P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION12 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9587vR 79

ERA3.55

FIP3.26

K%34.5%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%21.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL3030

CMD5555

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p90100.0

Whiff%

p9037.3%

p9032.8%

xwOBA vs

p830.280

FB+0.6 (60%)

SI (40%)

SL (9%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.128 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.1	$0.3M	-$0.0M
2027	Ext	$4M	+1.1	$8M	+$5M
2028	Ext	$4M	+1.1	$8M	+$5M
2029	Ext	$4M	+1.0	$6M	+$4M
Totals		$11M		$22M	+$13M

Options · projected decision
2030	CLUB OPT	$4.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$7.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2032	CLUB OPT	$9.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2033	CLUB OPT	$3.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 2	15	12	44	232	30	38	3	80%	2.9	8.8%	20.5%	-11.7%	1.8%	7.57	5.94	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 2	15	12	44	232	30	38	3	80%	2.9	12.9%	16.4%	-3.4%	1.3%	7.57	5.21	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	15	10	52	236	71	33	0	67%	3.5	20.5%	17.5%	3.0%	0.0%	3.12	3.59	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	15	10	52	236	71	33	0	67%	3.5	30.1%	14.0%	16.1%	0.0%	3.12	2.27	—
2021	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	7	7	23	107	24	15	1	100%	3.3	16.6%	16.5%	0.1%	1.3%	6.65	4.52	—
2021	20	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	7	7	23	107	24	15	1	100%	3.3	22.4%	14.0%	8.4%	0.9%	6.65	3.53	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	0	38	169	62	22	2	0%	1.9	29.7%	14.1%	15.6%	1.3%	3.32	3.09	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	20	0	38	169	62	22	2	0%	1.9	36.7%	13.0%	23.7%	1.2%	3.32	2.26	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	59	283	81	57	5	0%	1.0	24.6%	18.5%	6.1%	1.9%	5.61	4.41	+0.1
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	59	283	81	57	5	0%	1.0	24.6%	18.5%	6.1%	1.9%	5.61	4.41	+0.1
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	59	283	81	57	5	0%	1.0	28.6%	20.1%	8.5%	1.8%	5.61	4.35	+0.1
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	79	336	105	33	3	0%	1.1	29.5%	9.7%	19.8%	0.7%	2.50	2.22	+2.2
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	79	336	105	33	3	0%	1.1	29.5%	9.7%	19.8%	0.7%	2.50	2.22	+2.2
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	70	0	79	336	105	33	3	0%	1.1	31.2%	9.8%	21.4%	0.9%	2.50	2.19	+2.3
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	1	17	73	23	11	1	5%	0.9	32.8%	16.4%	16.4%	1.6%	3.63	3.27	+0.3
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	1	17	73	23	11	1	5%	0.9	32.8%	16.4%	16.4%	1.6%	3.63	3.27	+0.3
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	1	17	73	23	11	1	5%	0.9	31.5%	15.1%	16.4%	1.4%	3.63	3.10	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			99	0	106	463	138	56	5	0%	1.1	29.8%	12.1%	17.7%	1.1%	3.49	2.69	+2.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	12	2	12	44	17	6	0	17%	1.0	—	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	12	2	12	44	17	6	0	17%	1.0	—	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A RAW	ARI	2	2	2	7	3	1	0	100%	1.0	42.9%	14.3%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.29	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	ARI	2	0	2	6	3	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	ARI	8	0	8	31	11	5	0	0%	1.0	35.5%	16.1%	19.4%	0.0%	0.00	2.15	—
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	ARI	8	0	8	31	11	5	0	0%	1.0	35.5%	16.1%	19.4%	0.0%	0.00	2.15	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	ARI	5	0	5	23	8	3	0	0%	1.1	34.5%	12.8%	21.8%	2.0%	3.55	3.26	+0.1
ROS	25	MLB CTX	ARI	5	0	5	21	7	3	0	0%	1.0	34.5%	12.8%	21.8%	1.9%	3.49	3.20	+0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	17	67	25	9	0	—	—	37.2%	13.3%	23.9%	0.7%	1.12	1.03	+0.8
FULL	25	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	13	55	25	9	0	—	—	45.1%	16.1%	28.9%	0.8%	1.44	1.76	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	ARI	68	0	71	301	105	39	6	0%	1.1	34.8%	13.0%	21.9%	1.9%	3.33	3.21	+1.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	67	0	70	297	103	39	6	0%	1.0	34.8%	13.1%	21.8%	1.9%	3.28	3.24	+1.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	ARI	65	0	68	288	100	38	6	0%	1.0	34.7%	13.2%	21.5%	2.0%	3.31	3.33	+1.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	ARI	62	0	65	275	94	37	6	0%	1.0	34.1%	13.4%	20.7%	2.2%	3.42	3.49	+0.8
2031	30	MLB MLE	ARI	58	0	61	258	86	35	6	0%	1.1	33.4%	13.7%	19.7%	2.4%	3.58	3.69	+0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	ARI	65	0	68	287	100	37	5	0%	1.0	34.8%	13.0%	21.9%	1.8%	3.27	3.15	+1.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	64	0	67	283	99	37	5	0%	1.0	34.8%	13.1%	21.8%	1.8%	3.22	3.18	+1.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	ARI	62	0	65	274	95	36	5	0%	1.0	34.7%	13.2%	21.5%	1.9%	3.25	3.27	+1.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	ARI	59	0	62	262	89	35	5	0%	1.1	34.1%	13.4%	20.7%	2.0%	3.35	3.42	+0.8
2031	30	MLB CTX	ARI	55	0	58	245	82	34	5	0%	1.1	33.4%	13.7%	19.7%	2.2%	3.51	3.62	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		408	0	430	1834	610	238	32	0%	1.1	33.3%	13.0%	20.3%	1.7%	3.36	2.88	+8.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	852	283	111	15	0%	1.1	33.3%	13.0%	20.3%	1.7%	3.36	2.88	+4.0
Career	—	MLE		215	32	325	1480	347	233	17	15%	1.5	23.4%	15.8%	7.6%	1.1%	4.21	3.74	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	20	200	912	213	144	10	15%	1.5	23.4%	15.8%	7.6%	1.1%	4.21	3.74	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.26	34.5%	12.8%	2.0%	—	3.26	34.8%	21.7%	210	-0.00	—	—	—
John McMillon R 2023 · 2.28 FIP	25	SU	2.28	34.9%	13.5%	0.8%	.279	6.17	20.8%	5.5%	67	+3.89	2.28	152	71
Arodys Vizcaíno R 2016 · 3.36 FIP	25	SU	3.36	27.5%	12.6%	1.8%	.321	3.49	26.4%	17.8%	96	+0.13	2.28	183	70
Alex Reyes R 2020 · 3.05 FIP	25	SU	3.05	31.4%	15.1%	1.2%	.289	4.28	30.0%	13.9%	72	+1.23	2.56	330	69
Bruce Rondón R 2016 · 3.36 FIP	25	SU	3.36	29.0%	10.0%	2.6%	.284	3.41	25.1%	10.5%	82	+0.05	3.31	184	66
Ben Heller R 2017 · 2.86 FIP	25	SU	2.86	32.4%	9.4%	2.4%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	66
Theo Denlinger R 2021 · 2.92 FIP	25	SU	2.92	33.2%	10.2%	2.4%	.346	4.38	19.6%	8.8%	125	+1.46	2.92	140	65
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	65
José Leclerc R 2019 · 3.12 FIP	25	SU	3.12	33.4%	12.7%	2.2%	.292	3.43	27.3%	16.7%	48	+0.31	1.48	527	65
Trey Wingenter R 2019 · 3.17 FIP	25	SU	3.17	33.0%	12.8%	2.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	293	65
Justin Grimm R 2015 · 3.00 FIP	26	SU	3.00	32.8%	12.3%	2.0%	.250	4.17	26.1%	15.2%	157	+1.17	3.00	335	65
Brandan Bidois R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	22	SU	3.45	30.8%	17.5%	1.3%	.302	4.17	24.1%	9.9%	114	+0.72	2.73	136	65
Chad Sobotka R 2018 · 2.87 FIP	25	SU	2.87	29.4%	11.9%	1.4%	.206	4.35	23.2%	11.1%	89	+1.48	2.87	278	65
Brian Ellington R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	25	SU	3.44	27.5%	14.3%	1.6%	.252	5.01	24.6%	9.0%	97	+1.57	2.75	233	64
Jordan Leasure R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	24	SU	4.45	31.3%	11.5%	4.6%	.295	4.98	25.7%	14.7%	114	+0.53	4.33	212	64
Ken Giles R 2016 · 2.73 FIP	25	SU	2.73	35.7%	8.4%	2.9%	.342	2.39	33.0%	26.3%	166	-0.34	1.96	368	64
Kevin Ginkel R 2019 · 2.98 FIP	25	SU	2.98	35.4%	10.0%	2.9%	.255	3.67	26.2%	15.9%	104	+0.69	2.37	455	63
Dellin Betances R 2015 · 2.15 FIP	27	SU	2.15	39.5%	11.4%	1.7%	.248	2.02	41.0%	29.6%	199	-0.13	1.59	308	63
Franco Aleman R 2023 · 2.92 FIP	23	SU	2.92	28.4%	8.8%	2.0%	.315	2.96	29.2%	19.7%	114	+0.04	2.38	225	63
Dylan Heid R 2023 · 2.66 FIP	25	SU	2.66	29.4%	12.5%	0.8%	.337	3.74	18.5%	4.2%	64	+1.08	2.66	135	63
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.58	19.9%	3.7%	131	+0.74	3.70	201	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	67	34.4%	13.2%	0.79	3.41
José Leclerc ('24)	1.7	57	31.6%	12.8%	0.76	3.33
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.4	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
Carl Edwards Jr. ('23)	1.2	50	28.7%	12.4%	0.76	3.05
Adam Ottavino ('24)	2.3	59	29.3%	11.4%	0.86	3.18
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82