Justin Martinez

P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 0.9 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANExtFA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	70	0	79	2.50	2.19	31.2%	9.8%	2.3	K 29.5% · BB 9.7% · FIP 2.22
2025	24	MIX3 levels	19	1	17	3.63	3.10	31.5%	15.1%	0.3	K 32.8% · BB 16.4% · FIP 3.27
2026	25	MIX3 levels	19	2	17	1.56	2.23	35.3%	16.2%	0.5	K 32.7% · BB 18.2% · FIP 2.64
2027PROJ	26	MLBARI	55	0	58	3.37	3.37	35.8%	14.1%	0.8
2028PROJ93% MLB	27	MLBARI	52	0	55	3.33	3.34	35.8%	14.2%	0.8
2029PROJ94% MLB	28	MLBARI	50	0	52	3.38	3.42	35.6%	14.3%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.128First FA2030Options4

2027Ext$4M2028Ext$4M2029Ext$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%90

xwOBA vs90

CompsPete Fairbanks (age 26) · Jon Edwards (age 27) · Robert Coello (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9789vR 81

ERA3.37

FIP3.37

K%35.8%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%21.6%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL3030

CMD5555

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p90101.6

Whiff%

p8130.2%

p9032.7%

xwOBA vs

p900.229

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.128 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$4M	+0.8	$3M	-$0.3M
2028	Ext	$4M	+0.8	$3M	-$0.3M
2029	Ext	$4M	+0.7	$2M	-$0.5M
Totals		$11M		$9M	-$1M

Options · projected decision
2030	CLUB OPT	$4.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$7.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2032	CLUB OPT	$9.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2033	CLUB OPT	$3.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 2	15	12	44	232	30	38	3	80%	2.9	8.8%	20.5%	-11.7%	1.8%	7.57	5.94	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 2	15	12	44	232	30	38	3	80%	2.9	12.9%	16.4%	-3.4%	1.3%	7.57	5.21	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	15	10	52	236	71	33	0	67%	3.5	20.5%	17.5%	3.0%	0.0%	3.12	3.59	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	15	10	52	236	71	33	0	67%	3.5	30.1%	14.0%	16.1%	0.0%	3.12	2.27	—
2021	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	7	7	23	107	24	15	1	100%	3.3	16.6%	16.5%	0.1%	1.3%	6.65	4.52	—
2021	20	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	7	7	23	107	24	15	1	100%	3.3	22.4%	14.0%	8.4%	0.9%	6.65	3.53	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	0	38	169	62	22	2	0%	1.9	29.7%	14.1%	15.6%	1.3%	3.32	3.09	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	20	0	38	169	62	22	2	0%	1.9	36.7%	13.0%	23.7%	1.2%	3.32	2.26	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	59	283	81	57	5	0%	1.0	25.3%	18.5%	6.8%	1.9%	5.61	4.35	+0.1
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	59	283	81	57	5	0%	1.0	28.6%	20.1%	8.5%	1.8%	5.61	4.35	+0.1
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	79	336	105	33	3	0%	1.1	29.5%	9.7%	19.8%	0.7%	2.50	2.22	+2.2
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	79	336	105	33	3	0%	1.1	29.5%	9.7%	19.8%	0.7%	2.50	2.22	+2.2
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	70	0	79	336	105	33	3	0%	1.1	31.2%	9.8%	21.4%	0.9%	2.50	2.19	+2.3
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	1	17	73	23	11	1	5%	0.9	32.8%	16.4%	16.4%	1.6%	3.63	3.27	+0.3
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	1	17	73	23	11	1	5%	0.9	32.8%	16.4%	16.4%	1.6%	3.63	3.27	+0.3
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	1	17	73	23	11	1	5%	0.9	31.5%	15.1%	16.4%	1.4%	3.63	3.10	+0.3
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	2	17	68	24	11	0	11%	0.9	32.7%	18.2%	14.5%	0.0%	1.56	2.64	+0.4
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	2	17	68	24	11	0	11%	0.9	32.7%	18.2%	14.5%	0.0%	1.56	2.64	+0.4
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	2	17	68	24	11	0	11%	0.9	35.3%	16.2%	19.1%	0.0%	1.56	2.23	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			106	0	111	487	145	61	5	0%	1.1	29.8%	12.5%	17.2%	1.0%	3.56	2.72	+2.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	ARI	55	0	58	245	88	35	5	0%	1.1	35.8%	14.1%	21.6%	2.0%	3.37	3.37	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	56	0	59	249	89	35	5	0%	1.1	35.8%	14.2%	21.6%	2.1%	3.39	3.40	+0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	ARI	53	0	55	234	83	34	5	0%	1.0	35.6%	14.3%	21.3%	2.2%	3.45	3.49	+0.7
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	52	0	55	232	83	33	5	0%	1.1	35.8%	14.2%	21.6%	2.0%	3.33	3.34	+0.8
2029	28	MLB CTX	ARI	50	0	52	220	78	31	5	0%	1.0	35.6%	14.3%	21.3%	2.1%	3.38	3.42	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		207	0	218	937	306	125	14	0%	1.1	32.6%	13.4%	19.3%	1.5%	3.46	2.86	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	860	281	115	13	0%	1.1	32.6%	13.4%	19.3%	1.5%	3.46	2.86	+4.0
Career	—	MLE		222	32	330	1504	354	240	17	14%	1.5	23.5%	15.9%	7.6%	1.1%	4.22	3.74	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	19	200	911	214	145	10	14%	1.5	23.5%	15.9%	7.6%	1.1%	4.22	3.74	+3.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAReno Aces · 7 IPFIP 2.20 → 2.61 (+0.41)K% 50.0% → 43.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	50.00%	—	×0.860	43.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×0.900	9.64%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.124	×1.100	3.49%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).

Result: FIP 2.20 → 2.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAReno Aces · 49 IPFIP 3.96 → 4.11 (+0.15)K% 29.6% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.65%	—	×0.860	25.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.80%	—	×0.900	18.72%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷1.012	×1.100	1.44%

Result: FIP 3.96 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Hillsboro Hops · 27 IPFIP 1.88 → 3.09 (+1.21)K% 38.6% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.60%	—	×0.770	29.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.28%	—	×1.150	14.12%
HR / BF /BF	0.88%	÷0.848	×1.250	1.29%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 1.88 → 3.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAReno Aces · 5 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.39 (+0.47)K% 33.3% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.880	29.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.83%	—	×1.050	21.88%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.965	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 4 IPFIP 1.18 → 1.88 (+0.70)K% 36.4% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.36%	—	×0.810	29.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.100	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.094	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 1.18 → 1.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AVisalia Rawhide · 23 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.52 (+1.02)K% 22.4% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.43%	—	×0.740	16.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.02%	—	×1.180	16.54%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷0.923	×1.300	1.32%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKACL D-backs · 52 IPFIP 2.33 → 3.59 (+1.26)K% 30.1% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.08%	—	×0.680	20.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.98%	—	×1.250	17.48%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.33 → 3.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKDSL D-backs 2 · 44 IPFIP 4.79 → 5.94 (+1.15)K% 12.9% → 8.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.93%	—	×0.680	8.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.38%	—	×1.250	20.47%
HR / BF /BF	1.29%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.81%

Result: FIP 4.79 → 5.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.37	35.8%	14.1%	2.0%	—	3.44	35.7%	21.4%	114	+0.07	—	—	—
Pete Fairbanks R 2020 · 2.77 FIP	26	SU	2.77	33.3%	12.0%	1.8%	.339	2.00	35.6%	26.4%	112	-0.77	0.50	463	66
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	66
Robert Coello R 2013 · 2.56 FIP	28	SU	2.56	31.5%	11.0%	1.3%	.317	4.31	13.4%	2.8%	95	+1.75	2.56	112	64
Kiko Calero R 2003 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	31.5%	11.1%	3.1%	.273	3.11	26.1%	18.9%	159	-0.43	2.27	298	64
Dan Altavilla R 2019 · 2.88 FIP	26	SU	2.88	31.7%	13.6%	1.3%	.263	4.34	27.0%	13.5%	20	+1.46	2.88	501	64
Reyes Moronta R 2019 · 3.31 FIP	26	SU	3.31	28.5%	13.0%	1.8%	.264	5.16	21.5%	5.3%	56	+1.85	3.06	361	64
Alex Lange R 2022 · 3.00 FIP	26	SU	3.00	30.3%	11.1%	1.9%	.273	3.86	26.3%	10.9%	108	+0.86	3.00	511	63
Trey Wingenter R 2019 · 3.17 FIP	25	SU	3.17	33.0%	12.8%	2.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	293	63
Ben Heller R 2017 · 2.86 FIP	25	SU	2.86	32.4%	9.4%	2.4%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	62
Ken Giles R 2017 · 2.25 FIP	26	SU	2.25	33.6%	8.5%	1.7%	.288	2.48	32.6%	27.1%	103	+0.23	0.92	414	62
Tucker Healy R 2016 · 2.82 FIP	26	SU	2.82	30.4%	10.5%	1.8%	.294	4.64	16.9%	5.8%	67	+1.82	2.82	174	62
Jordan Walden R 2014 · 2.73 FIP	26	SU	2.73	30.2%	12.7%	1.1%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	212	62
Eric Reyzelman R 2024 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	30.3%	15.6%	2.4%	.261	4.78	24.5%	8.6%	94	+0.97	3.81	117	61
Ray Black R 2016 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	30.0%	24.6%	0.9%	.281	3.88	34.6%	23.4%	94	-0.27	2.95	150	61
Ryne Stanek R 2017 · 3.05 FIP	26	SU	3.05	30.4%	10.0%	2.3%	.311	3.83	28.9%	18.4%	143	+0.78	2.96	771	61
Justin Anderson R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	27.6%	14.7%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	587	61
Mychal Givens R 2016 · 2.84 FIP	26	SU	2.84	30.7%	10.9%	1.7%	.299	3.27	28.3%	20.0%	218	+0.43	1.77	526	61
Josh Staumont R 2020 · 3.18 FIP	26	SU	3.18	33.0%	14.3%	1.9%	.316	3.61	26.4%	13.7%	123	+0.43	3.18	618	61
Hunter Bigge R 2024 · 3.38 FIP	26	SU	3.38	36.6%	8.7%	4.1%	.271	5.43	20.5%	7.2%	67	+2.05	3.38	232	61
Sam Tuivailala R 2019 · 2.76 FIP	26	SU	2.76	28.7%	11.7%	1.1%	.218	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	230	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	72	33.4%	14.2%	0.65	3.46
Carlos Marmol ('14)	2.9	72	29.5%	15.7%	0.76	3.57
John Rocker ('03)	1.3	51	29.4%	14.5%	0.81	3.42
Al Alburquerque ('17)	1.2	61	27.8%	12.9%	0.62	3.16
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*
Mark Littell ('73-'82, 7 WAR*)	2.7	66	30.7%*	13.4%*	0.74*	3.75*
Mark Clear ('79-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.0	80	33.4%*	15.2%*	0.78*	3.89*