Justin Martinez — OGILVIE

Justin Martinez P Arizona Diamondbacks

+0.3 WAR

INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 0.8 · 2027

ERA3.89

FIP3.78

xFIP4.11

SIERA4.01

K%27.7%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%16.0%

IP44

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2027

K†7070

FB Velo

p90100.0

Whiff%

p9037.3%

p9032.8%

xwOBA vs

p830.280

FB+0.6 (60%)

SI (40%)

SL (9%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	DSL D-backs 2	15	12	44	232	30	38	3	8.8%	20.5%	1.8%	7.57	5.94	-0.5
2019	18	ROK	ACL D-backs	15	10	52	236	71	33	0	20.5%	17.5%	0.0%	3.12	3.59	+0.8
2021	20	A	Visalia Rawhide	7	7	23	107	24	15	1	16.6%	16.5%	1.3%	6.65	4.50	+0.1
2022	21	AAA	Reno Aces	20	0	38	169	62	22	2	29.7%	14.1%	1.3%	3.32	3.07	+0.8
2023	22	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	57	0	59	283	81	57	5	25.8%	21.0%	1.8%	5.61	4.59	+0.2
2024	23	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	70	0	79	336	105	33	3	29.5%	9.7%	0.7%	2.50	2.20	+2.6
2025	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	19	1	17	73	23	11	1	32.8%	16.4%	1.6%	3.63	3.27	+0.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	ARI	13	—	13	55	18	6	1	32.5%	11.7%	2.0%	3.79	3.35	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	26	MLB	ARI	44	—	44	184	58	21	4	31.8%	11.5%	2.1%	3.61	3.43	+0.8
2028	27	MLB	ARI	43	—	43	183	57	21	4	31.1%	11.3%	2.2%	3.57	3.50	+0.7
2029	28	MLB	ARI	43	—	43	180	55	20	4	30.7%	11.2%	2.3%	3.59	3.57	+0.7
2030	29	MLB	ARI	42	—	42	176	53	20	4	30.0%	11.3%	2.4%	3.64	3.66	+0.6
2031	30	MLB	ARI	40	—	40	171	50	19	4	29.5%	11.4%	2.4%	3.71	3.76	+0.5
2032	31	MLB	ARI	39	—	39	165	48	19	4	28.9%	11.5%	2.5%	3.80	3.86	+0.5
2033	32	MLB	ARI	37	—	37	158	45	18	4	28.3%	11.6%	2.6%	3.90	3.97	+0.4
2034	33	MLB	ARI	36	—	36	151	42	18	4	27.6%	11.8%	2.7%	4.02	4.10	+0.3
2035	34	MLB	ARI	34	—	34	143	39	17	4	26.9%	12.0%	2.8%	4.15	4.24	+0.3
2036	35	MLB	ARI	32	—	32	135	35	17	4	26.2%	12.2%	2.9%	4.30	4.39	+0.2
2037	36	MLB	ARI	30	—	30	126	32	16	4	25.4%	12.5%	3.0%	4.45	4.56	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			203	30	313	1436	333	234	16	23.2%	16.3%	1.1%	4.37	3.83	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—			130	19	200	918	213	150	10	23.2%	16.3%	1.1%	4.37	3.83	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.35	32.5%	11.7%	2.0%	—	3.50	31.2%	19.9%	130	+0.15	—	—	—
John McMillon R 2026 · 2.28 FIP	25	SU	2.28	34.9%	13.5%	0.8%	.279	6.30	21.4%	4.9%	67	+4.02	2.28	152	72
Arodys Vizcaíno R 2026 · 3.37 FIP	25	SU	3.37	27.5%	12.6%	1.8%	.321	3.59	26.4%	17.8%	96	+0.22	2.27	183	70
Shohei Ohtani R 2025 · 3.46 FIP	24	SW	3.46	29.9%	10.4%	2.9%	.267	3.11	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.35	1.69	545	69
Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 2.90 FIP	25	SU	2.90	33.2%	10.2%	2.4%	.346	4.44	19.7%	8.5%	125	+1.54	2.90	140	68
Jaden Hill R 2026 · 2.56 FIP	25	SU	2.56	28.4%	7.7%	1.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	129	68
Justin Grimm R 2027 · 2.87 FIP	26	SU	2.87	32.8%	12.3%	1.8%	.250	4.09	26.1%	15.2%	157	+1.22	2.87	335	67
Alex Reyes R 2026 · 3.01 FIP	25	SU	3.01	31.4%	15.1%	1.2%	.289	4.30	30.0%	13.9%	72	+1.29	2.56	330	67
Ben Heller R 2026 · 2.93 FIP	25	SW	2.93	32.4%	9.4%	2.5%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	66
Bruce Rondón R 2026 · 3.30 FIP	25	SW	3.30	29.0%	10.0%	2.5%	.284	3.39	25.1%	10.5%	82	+0.09	3.30	184	66
Ken Giles R 2026 · 2.66 FIP	25	SW	2.66	35.7%	8.4%	2.8%	.342	2.35	33.0%	26.3%	166	-0.31	1.95	368	65
Jon Edwards R 2028 · 3.39 FIP	27	SW	3.39	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.39	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.39	132	65
Kevin Ginkel R 2026 · 2.98 FIP	25	SW	2.98	35.4%	10.0%	2.9%	.255	3.56	26.2%	15.9%	104	+0.58	2.37	393	65
Trey Wingenter R 2026 · 3.19 FIP	25	SW	3.19	33.0%	12.8%	2.3%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	293	64
Evan Reifert R 2026 · 2.99 FIP	25	SU	2.99	32.7%	10.9%	2.3%	.247	3.02	35.1%	20.3%	29	+0.03	2.99	148	64
Cody Morris R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	25	SU	3.87	31.3%	11.6%	3.5%	.256	4.72	24.1%	7.0%	72	+0.85	2.23	256	64
José Leclerc R 2026 · 3.15 FIP	25	SW	3.15	33.4%	12.7%	2.3%	.292	3.51	27.3%	16.7%	48	+0.36	1.47	527	64
Chad Sobotka R 2026 · 2.92 FIP	25	SW	2.92	29.4%	11.9%	1.4%	.206	4.32	23.2%	11.1%	89	+1.40	2.92	278	63
Craig Kimbrel R 2028 · 2.46 FIP	27	SW	2.46	36.4%	8.8%	2.4%	.272	2.16	42.6%	32.3%	184	-0.30	1.10	556	63
Dylan Heid R 2026 · 2.65 FIP	25	SU	2.65	29.4%	12.5%	0.8%	.337	3.74	18.5%	4.2%	64	+1.09	2.65	135	63
Zac Leigh R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	25	SU	3.82	28.1%	11.7%	2.9%	.282	4.76	19.3%	1.3%	95	+0.94	3.72	164	63

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.128 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$4M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-4	$4M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$10M	+$0.0M

Options · projected decision
2030	CLUB OPT	$31.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$7.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2032	CLUB OPT	$9.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2033	CLUB OPT	$3.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE