Dan Altavilla
P
St. Paul Saints
+0.0
WAR
Age 33
RHP
5'11" / 235 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA3.90
FIP4.84
xFIP4.93
SIERA4.79
K%19.7%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%8.4%
IP45
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL3030
CMD3030
K†5050
FB Velo
p7196.0
Whiff%
p3022.5%
K%
p1817.5%
xwOBA vs
p320.333
CH+0.7 (23%)
FB (52%)
SI (26%)
SL (25%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | 28 | 28 | 148 | 628 | 134 | 53 | 11 | 16.4% | 9.7% | 2.0% | 4.07 | 4.05 | +2.1 |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 58 | 0 | 69 | 283 | 75 | 22 | 3 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 1.5% | 1.70 | 3.30 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 61 | 0 | 70 | 303 | 88 | 32 | 10 | 27.6% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 3.34 | 3.91 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 31 | 1 | 28 | 123 | 32 | 19 | 4 | 27.1% | 17.6% | 2.1% | 4.13 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 45 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 68 | 25 | 2 | 31.7% | 13.6% | 1.4% | 4.80 | 2.89 | +1.1 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 22 | 0 | 20 | 89 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 27.0% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 5.75 | 3.99 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 8 | 2 | 12 | 49 | 7 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 42 | 1 | 45 | 192 | 43 | 24 | 6 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 42 | 28 | 6 | 17.1% | 12.4% | 2.5% | 2.45 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 8 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 8 | 9 | 1 | — | — | — | 10.57 | — | — |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | MIN | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 41 | 25 | 6 | 21.7% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 53 | 229 | 49 | 34 | 7 | 21.6% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 4.21 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 38 | 24 | 6 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 35 | 23 | 5 | 20.2% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 31 | 22 | 5 | 19.5% | 13.7% | 3.3% | 5.23 | 5.38 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 357 | 32 | 502 | 2131 | 462 | 248 | 49 | 21.7% | 11.7% | 2.3% | 3.71 | 4.00 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 142 | 13 | 200 | 850 | 184 | 99 | 20 | 21.7% | 11.7% | 2.3% | 3.71 | 4.00 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dan Altavilla (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 21.7% | 13.0% | 3.0% | — | 5.21 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 121 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 85 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 79 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.18 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .302 | 2.90 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 98 | -1.28 | 2.80 | 284 | 77 |
| Radhames Liz R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.49 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.7% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.73 | 110 | 76 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 76 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.60 | 18.6% | 11.1% | 3.0% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 173 | 76 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 75 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 75 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.78 | 20.4% | 14.1% | 2.9% | .344 | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 43 | +0.28 | 2.00 | 320 | 75 |
| Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 75 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.39 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 148 | 74 |
| Nate Jones R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .279 | 5.52 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +1.44 | 2.61 | 157 | 74 |
| Matt Bush R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.65 | 17.6% | 13.0% | 2.5% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 249 | 74 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.83 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .286 | 3.13 | 23.7% | 17.9% | 150 | -1.70 | 2.31 | 403 | 74 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.80 | 19.6% | 12.2% | 1.5% | .303 | 4.09 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 35 | +0.29 | 3.80 | 132 | 74 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 74 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 73 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.41 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 4.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 176 | 73 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 72 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.31 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.08 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.23 | 2.86 | 596 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.