Dan Altavilla

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 34 RHP 5'11" / 235 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	31	MIX2 levels	42	1	45	4.43	4.53	22.4%	12.5%	0.0	K 19.1% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.47
2025	32	MIX2 levels	52	0	55	2.45	4.52	18.2%	12.1%	0.0	K 16.9% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.47
2026	33	AAAKC	38	0	44	6.09	5.40	17.5%	15.5%	—	K 15.0% · BB 14.0% · FIP 5.36
2027PROJ	34	MLBKC	5	0	5	5.19	5.47	17.8%	14.3%	-0.1
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBKC	2	0	2	5.56	5.80	16.8%	14.9%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.0 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo71

xwOBA vs32

K%18

CompsJose Manuel Lopez (age 34) · Joe Nelson (age 34) · Matt Miller (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.19

FIP5.47

K%17.8%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%3.4%

Proj IP49

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p3022.5%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p320.333

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	A+ MLE	Bakersfield Blaze	28	28	148	628	134	53	11	100%	5.3	16.4%	9.7%	6.7%	2.0%	4.07	4.06	—
2015	22	A+ RAW	Bakersfield Blaze	28	28	148	628	134	53	11	100%	5.3	21.3%	8.4%	12.9%	1.8%	4.07	3.33	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	69	283	75	22	3	0%	1.2	22.4%	9.8%	12.6%	1.5%	1.70	3.30	+1.0
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	0	69	283	75	22	3	0%	1.2	26.5%	7.8%	18.7%	1.1%	1.70	2.45	+1.7
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	70	303	88	32	10	0%	1.1	27.6%	10.8%	16.8%	3.4%	3.34	4.01	+0.4
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	70	303	88	32	10	0%	1.1	29.0%	10.6%	18.5%	3.3%	3.34	3.81	+0.6
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	1	28	123	32	19	4	3%	0.9	27.1%	17.6%	9.4%	2.4%	4.13	4.37	+0.1
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	1	28	123	32	19	4	3%	0.9	26.0%	15.4%	10.6%	3.3%	4.13	4.69	-0.0
2019	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	45	190	68	25	2	0%	1.0	31.7%	13.6%	18.1%	1.3%	4.80	2.88	+0.9
2019	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	0	45	190	68	25	2	0%	1.0	35.8%	13.2%	22.6%	1.1%	4.80	2.32	+1.2
2020	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	22	0	20	89	24	12	3	0%	0.9	27.0%	13.5%	13.5%	3.3%	5.75	4.34	+0.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	22	0	20	89	24	12	3	0%	0.9	27.0%	13.5%	13.5%	3.4%	5.75	4.43	+0.0
2021	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	2	0	1	5	2	0	1	0%	0.7	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	20.0%	6.75	10.70	-0.1
2021	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	2	0	1	5	2	0	1	0%	0.7	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	20.0%	6.75	9.85	-0.1
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	2	12	49	7	5	1	25%	1.5	14.3%	10.2%	4.1%	2.0%	3.00	4.31	—
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	2	12	49	7	5	1	25%	1.5	14.3%	10.2%	4.1%	2.0%	3.00	4.27	—
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	1	45	192	43	24	6	2%	1.1	19.1%	11.1%	8.1%	2.9%	4.43	4.47	+0.0
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	1	45	192	43	24	6	2%	1.1	19.1%	11.1%	8.1%	2.9%	4.43	4.47	+0.0
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	1	45	192	43	24	6	2%	1.1	22.4%	12.5%	9.9%	3.1%	4.43	4.53	+0.0
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	55	231	42	28	6	0%	1.1	16.9%	11.6%	5.4%	2.4%	2.45	4.47	+0.1
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	55	231	42	28	6	0%	1.1	16.9%	11.6%	5.4%	2.4%	2.45	4.47	+0.1
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	55	231	42	28	6	0%	1.1	18.2%	12.1%	6.1%	2.6%	2.45	4.52	+0.0
2026	33	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	38	0	44	206	36	32	6	0%	1.2	15.0%	14.0%	1.0%	3.2%	6.09	5.36	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	38	0	44	206	36	32	6	0%	1.2	15.0%	14.0%	1.0%	3.2%	6.09	5.36	—
2026	33	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	38	0	44	206	36	32	6	0%	1.2	17.5%	15.5%	1.9%	2.9%	6.09	5.40	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			152	1	149	635	155	76	21	1%	1.0	24.4%	12.0%	12.4%	3.3%	4.00	4.38	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	KC	5	0	5	21	4	3	1	0%	1.0	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	3.0%	5.19	5.47	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	KC	30	0	31	132	22	20	4	0%	1.0	16.8%	14.9%	1.9%	3.4%	5.56	5.80	-0.4
2028	35	MLB CTX	KC	2	0	2	8	1	1	0	0%	1.0	16.8%	14.9%	1.9%	3.4%	5.56	5.80	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		154	1	150	642	156	77	21	1%	1.0	24.3%	12.0%	12.3%	3.3%	4.01	4.38	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		204	1	200	854	207	102	28	1%	1.0	24.3%	12.0%	12.3%	3.3%	4.01	4.38	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		387	32	538	2299	484	263	56	8%	1.4	21.0%	11.4%	9.6%	2.4%	3.81	4.10	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	12	200	854	180	98	21	8%	1.4	21.0%	11.4%	9.6%	2.4%	3.81	4.10	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 44 IPFIP 5.19 → 5.36 (+0.17)K% 17.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.48%	—	×0.860	15.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.53%	—	×0.900	13.98%
HR / BF /BF	2.91%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.20%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.19 → 5.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 26 IPFIP 3.97 → 3.89 (−0.09)K% 18.9% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.92%	—	×0.860	16.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.71%	—	×0.900	10.54%
HR / BF /BF	1.80%	÷1.320	×1.100	1.50%

Result: FIP 3.97 → 3.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 41 IPFIP 4.38 → 4.47 (+0.09)K% 22.2% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.860	19.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.28%	—	×0.900	11.05%
HR / BF /BF	2.92%	÷1.111	×1.100	2.89%

Result: FIP 4.38 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greenville Drive · 7 IPFIP 5.21 → 6.37 (+1.15)K% 14.3% → 11.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.29%	—	×0.770	11.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×1.150	12.32%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷0.931	×1.250	4.80%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 5.21 → 6.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Red Sox · 5 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.79 (+0.69)K% 14.3% → 9.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.29%	—	×0.680	9.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.250	11.90%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.974	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAATacoma Rainiers · 14 IPFIP 2.03 → 2.51 (+0.48)K% 37.3% → 32.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.31%	—	×0.880	32.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.42%	—	×1.050	17.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.049	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 2.03 → 2.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAArkansas Travelers · 16 IPFIP 1.10 → 2.33 (+1.24)K% 42.4% → 34.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.37%	—	×0.810	34.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.08%	—	×1.100	5.59%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷0.784	×1.200	2.59%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 57).

Result: FIP 1.10 → 2.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAATacoma Rainiers · 7 IPFIP 6.00 → 6.89 (+0.90)K% 20.0% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.880	17.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×1.050	12.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.71%	÷0.918	×1.100	6.85%

Result: FIP 6.00 → 6.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dan Altavilla (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.47	17.8%	14.3%	3.0%	—	5.80	16.8%	1.9%	31	+0.33	—	—	—
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2019 · 6.14 FIP	34	SU	6.14	17.9%	14.2%	5.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	170	78
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	78
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	77
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	75
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	75
Scott Proctor R 2011 · 6.33 FIP	34	SU	6.33	14.4%	12.9%	5.1%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	337	74
Matt Bush R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	32	SU	4.72	17.6%	13.0%	2.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	73
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	72
Scott McGough R 2024 · 4.56 FIP	34	SU	4.56	18.6%	12.2%	2.7%	.289	3.82	20.3%	13.1%	57	-0.74	3.55	429	71
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	70
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	70
Fernando Villalobos R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	32	SU	4.70	10.6%	8.0%	2.7%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	152	69
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	68
Raul Barron R 2019 · 5.92 FIP	33	SU	5.92	11.4%	8.9%	4.8%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	201	67
Denny Stark R 2009 · 6.38 FIP	34	SU	6.38	13.0%	18.5%	3.7%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	5.28	259	66
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	65
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	65
Giovanni Carrara R 2002 · 4.78 FIP	34	SU	4.78	14.5%	7.2%	3.6%	.239	3.83	17.1%	7.9%	158	-0.95	2.50	462	64
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	64
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	38	21.9%	13.1%	1.26	4.46
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*