Dan Altavilla
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
Age 33
RHP
5'11" / 235 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 58 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 118
ERA5.02
FIP5.20
K%19.2%
BB%14.0%
K-BB%5.2%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 116 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7196.0
Whiff%
p3022.5%
K%
p1817.5%
xwOBA vs
p320.333
CH+0.7 (23%)
FB (52%)
SI (26%)
SL (25%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | 28 | 28 | 148 | 628 | 134 | 53 | 11 | 100% | 5.3 | 16.4% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 4.07 | 3.98 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | 28 | 28 | 148 | 628 | 134 | 53 | 11 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.3% | 8.4% | 12.9% | 1.8% | 4.07 | 3.33 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 0 | 69 | 283 | 75 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 1.6% | 1.70 | 3.31 | +1.2 |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 0 | 69 | 283 | 75 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.5% | 7.8% | 18.7% | 1.1% | 1.70 | 2.45 | +1.9 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 70 | 303 | 88 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.6% | 10.8% | 16.8% | 3.5% | 3.34 | 4.06 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 70 | 303 | 88 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.0% | 10.6% | 18.5% | 3.3% | 3.34 | 3.81 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 1 | 28 | 123 | 32 | 19 | 4 | 3% | 0.9 | 27.1% | 17.6% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 4.13 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 1 | 28 | 123 | 32 | 19 | 4 | 3% | 0.9 | 26.0% | 15.4% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.13 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 68 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.7% | 13.6% | 18.1% | 1.7% | 4.80 | 3.06 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 68 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.8% | 13.2% | 22.6% | 1.1% | 4.80 | 2.32 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 22 | 0 | 20 | 89 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.0% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 3.6% | 5.75 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 22 | 0 | 20 | 89 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.0% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 3.4% | 5.75 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0.7 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 20.0% | 6.75 | 10.70 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0.7 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 20.0% | 6.75 | 9.85 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 2 | 12 | 49 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 25% | 1.5 | 14.3% | 10.2% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 3.00 | 4.31 | — |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 2 | 12 | 49 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 25% | 1.5 | 14.3% | 10.2% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 3.00 | 4.27 | — |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 1 | 45 | 192 | 43 | 24 | 6 | 2% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 4.43 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 1 | 45 | 192 | 43 | 24 | 6 | 2% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 42 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 12.4% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 2.45 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 42 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 12.1% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 2.45 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 51 | 0 | 58 | 272 | 51 | 43 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.5% | 16.6% | -0.1% | 3.6% | 6.83 | 5.81 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | MIN | 56 | 0 | 58 | 247 | 47 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 14.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 5.02 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | MIN | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 14.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 5.02 | 5.20 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 116 | 519 | 98 | 77 | 16 | — | — | 18.9% | 14.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 5.92 | 5.50 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 6 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 19.2% | 14.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 5.02 | 4.82 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 51 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 41 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 14.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.31 | 5.51 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 35 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 15.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 5.63 | 5.84 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 40 | 0 | 42 | 178 | 29 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.3% | 15.6% | 0.6% | 3.9% | 5.98 | 6.21 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 14.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.31 | 5.51 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.3% | 15.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 5.63 | 5.84 | — |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.3% | 15.6% | 0.6% | 3.9% | 5.98 | 6.21 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 161 | 1 | 158 | 674 | 162 | 82 | 22 | 1% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.06 | 4.40 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 204 | 1 | 200 | 854 | 205 | 104 | 28 | 1% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.06 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 400 | 32 | 552 | 2365 | 499 | 285 | 59 | 8% | 1.4 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 3.95 | 4.20 | +7.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 12 | 200 | 857 | 181 | 103 | 21 | 8% | 1.4 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 3.95 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dan Altavilla (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.20 | 19.2% | 14.0% | 2.9% | — | 5.83 | 17.4% | 2.3% | 143 | +0.63 | — | — | — |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 81 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 79 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 79 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2024 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 108 | 77 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.46 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 148 | 77 |
| Matt Bush R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.74 | 17.6% | 13.0% | 2.7% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 249 | 76 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 76 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 18.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 173 | 75 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.59 | 20.4% | 14.1% | 2.6% | .344 | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 43 | +0.56 | 2.00 | 320 | 75 |
| Radhames Liz R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.31 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 110 | 74 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.22 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.9% | .302 | 2.90 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 98 | -1.32 | 2.82 | 284 | 74 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 73 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 73 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.84 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 72 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 4.4% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 176 | 72 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.77 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 4.0% | .286 | 3.18 | 23.7% | 17.9% | 150 | -1.59 | 2.27 | 426 | 71 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 71 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .274 | 3.99 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.41 | 2.78 | 596 | 71 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.79 | 15.0% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .302 | 6.00 | 19.2% | 9.8% | 21 | +1.21 | 4.68 | 150 | 71 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 50 | 17.9% | 14.7% | 1.28 | 5.44 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |