Dan Altavilla — OGILVIE

Dan Altavilla P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 33 RHP 5'11" / 235 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.00

FIP5.17

K%18.7%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%5.6%

ROS IP58

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p3022.5%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p320.333

CH+0.7 (23%)

FB (52%)

SI (26%)

SL (25%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	A+ MLE	Bakersfield Blaze	28	28	148	628	134	53	11	100%	5.3	16.4%	9.7%	6.7%	2.0%	4.07	4.06	—
2015	22	A+ RAW	Bakersfield Blaze	28	28	148	628	134	53	11	100%	5.3	21.3%	8.4%	12.9%	1.8%	4.07	3.33	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	69	283	75	22	3	0%	1.2	22.4%	9.8%	12.6%	1.5%	1.70	3.30	+1.0
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	0	69	283	75	22	3	0%	1.2	26.5%	7.8%	18.7%	1.1%	1.70	2.45	+1.7
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	70	303	88	32	10	0%	1.1	27.6%	10.8%	16.8%	3.4%	3.34	4.01	+0.4
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	70	303	88	32	10	0%	1.1	29.0%	10.6%	18.5%	3.3%	3.34	3.81	+0.6
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	1	28	123	32	19	4	3%	0.9	27.1%	17.6%	9.4%	2.4%	4.13	4.37	+0.1
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	1	28	123	32	19	4	3%	0.9	26.0%	15.4%	10.6%	3.3%	4.13	4.69	-0.0
2019	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	45	190	68	25	2	0%	1.0	31.7%	13.6%	18.1%	1.3%	4.80	2.88	+0.9
2019	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	0	45	190	68	25	2	0%	1.0	35.8%	13.2%	22.6%	1.1%	4.80	2.32	+1.2
2020	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	22	0	20	89	24	12	3	0%	0.9	27.0%	13.5%	13.5%	3.3%	5.75	4.34	+0.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	22	0	20	89	24	12	3	0%	0.9	27.0%	13.5%	13.5%	3.4%	5.75	4.43	+0.0
2021	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	2	0	1	5	2	0	1	0%	0.7	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	20.0%	6.75	10.70	-0.1
2021	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	2	0	1	5	2	0	1	0%	0.7	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	20.0%	6.75	9.85	-0.1
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	2	12	49	7	5	1	25%	1.5	14.3%	10.2%	4.1%	2.0%	3.00	4.31	—
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	2	12	49	7	5	1	25%	1.5	14.3%	10.2%	4.1%	2.0%	3.00	4.31	—
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	2	12	49	7	5	1	25%	1.5	14.3%	10.2%	4.1%	2.0%	3.00	4.27	—
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	1	45	192	43	24	6	2%	1.1	18.4%	11.1%	7.4%	2.9%	4.43	4.53	+0.0
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	1	45	192	43	24	6	2%	1.1	18.4%	11.1%	7.4%	2.9%	4.43	4.53	+0.0
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	1	45	192	43	24	6	2%	1.1	22.4%	12.5%	9.9%	3.1%	4.43	4.53	+0.0
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	55	231	42	28	6	0%	1.1	16.6%	11.6%	5.1%	2.4%	2.45	4.49	+0.0
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	55	231	42	28	6	0%	1.1	16.6%	11.6%	5.1%	2.4%	2.45	4.49	+0.0
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	55	231	42	28	6	0%	1.1	18.2%	12.1%	6.1%	2.6%	2.45	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			152	1	149	635	155	76	21	1%	1.0	24.4%	12.0%	12.4%	3.3%	4.00	4.38	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	38	0	44	206	36	32	6	0%	1.2	14.5%	14.0%	0.5%	3.2%	6.09	5.40	—
YTD	33	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	38	0	44	206	36	32	6	0%	1.2	14.5%	14.0%	0.5%	3.2%	6.09	5.40	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	AAA RAW	KC	38	0	44	206	36	32	6	0%	1.2	17.5%	15.5%	1.9%	2.9%	6.09	5.19	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	KC	51	0	53	224	40	31	7	0%	1.0	17.8%	13.6%	4.2%	3.2%	5.28	5.47	-0.5
2028	35	MLB MLE	KC	45	0	48	201	34	29	7	0%	1.1	16.8%	14.2%	2.7%	3.6%	5.60	5.81	-0.7
2029	36	MLB MLE	KC	40	0	42	178	28	26	7	0%	1.1	15.8%	14.8%	1.0%	3.9%	5.95	6.18	-0.7
2027	34	MLB CTX	KC	3	0	3	13	2	2	0	0%	1.0	17.8%	13.6%	4.2%	3.2%	5.28	5.47	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.8%	14.2%	2.7%	3.6%	5.60	5.81	—
2029	36	MLB CTX	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.8%	14.8%	1.0%	3.9%	5.95	6.18	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		155	1	152	649	158	78	21	1%	1.0	24.3%	12.0%	12.3%	3.3%	4.03	4.39	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		204	1	200	854	208	103	28	1%	1.0	24.3%	12.0%	12.3%	3.3%	4.03	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		387	32	538	2299	481	263	56	8%	1.4	20.9%	11.4%	9.5%	2.4%	3.81	4.11	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	12	200	854	179	98	21	8%	1.4	20.9%	11.4%	9.5%	2.4%	3.81	4.11	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dan Altavilla (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	18.7%	13.1%	2.9%	—	5.79	16.9%	2.7%	143	+0.62	—	—	—
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	81
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	80
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	79
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	78
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	78
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	33	SU	5.42	14.3%	10.4%	4.0%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	148	78
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	78
Arquimedes Caminero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	32	SU	4.62	18.6%	11.1%	3.1%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.54	173	76
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	75
Matt Bush R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	32	SU	4.72	17.6%	13.0%	2.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	75
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	75
Radhames Liz R 2018 · 4.45 FIP	34	SU	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.343	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	110	74
Jumbo Diaz R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	33	SU	4.17	20.0%	9.7%	2.8%	.302	2.90	24.2%	15.4%	98	-1.27	2.80	284	74
Felipe Paulino R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	15.0%	10.2%	3.3%	.302	5.82	19.2%	9.8%	21	+0.89	4.55	150	72
Jhan Mariñez R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	33	SU	5.36	17.4%	11.4%	4.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	72
Ryan Brasier R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	33	SU	4.85	18.0%	8.0%	4.1%	.286	3.16	23.7%	17.9%	150	-1.69	2.31	426	72
JC Ramírez R 2022 · 6.17 FIP	33	SU	6.17	15.7%	14.0%	4.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	369	72
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	72
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	71
Chris Hatcher R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	18.0%	9.6%	4.6%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	176	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	17.4%	13.9%	1.30	5.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77