Luis Cepeda
P
ACL Royals
Age 25
LHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 9 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99108vR 117
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
K%23.4%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.2%
ROS IP10
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Royals 1 | 10 | 6 | 27 | 110 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 60% | 2.7 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 1.3% | 1.98 | 3.48 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Royals 1 | 10 | 6 | 27 | 110 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 60% | 2.7 | 28.2% | 8.2% | 20.0% | 0.9% | 1.98 | 2.30 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Royals 1 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 195 | 61 | 6 | 4 | 100% | 4.1 | 21.3% | 3.8% | 17.4% | 2.9% | 2.37 | 3.37 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Royals 1 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 195 | 61 | 6 | 4 | 100% | 4.1 | 31.3% | 3.1% | 28.2% | 2.1% | 2.37 | 2.05 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Royals | 8 | 4 | 22 | 92 | 24 | 6 | 3 | 50% | 2.7 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 4.3% | 2.49 | 4.98 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Royals | 8 | 4 | 22 | 92 | 24 | 6 | 3 | 50% | 2.7 | 26.1% | 6.5% | 19.6% | 3.3% | 2.49 | 3.52 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Royals | 8 | 2 | 16 | 83 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 25% | 2.0 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 8.27 | 4.19 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Royals | 8 | 2 | 16 | 83 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 25% | 2.0 | 26.5% | 4.8% | 21.7% | 2.4% | 8.27 | 2.73 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | KC | 2 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | KC | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | KC | 2 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 4.5 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 1 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 8.6 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 3.91 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 211 | 70 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 38 | 24 | 115 | 480 | 94 | 31 | 14 | 63% | 3.0 | 19.6% | 6.5% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 3.14 | 3.84 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 42 | 200 | 837 | 164 | 55 | 24 | 63% | 3.0 | 19.6% | 6.5% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 3.14 | 3.84 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Cepeda (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.30 | 23.6% | 14.4% | 20 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Tommy Shirley L 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 79 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.24 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.6% | .382 | 4.08 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 156 | -0.16 | 2.44 | 171 | 76 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.65 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .257 | 5.52 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 53 | +1.87 | 3.65 | 116 | 72 |
| Parker Mushinski L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.50 | 24.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .357 | 4.17 | 22.0% | 11.4% | 143 | +0.67 | 3.21 | 439 | 70 |
| Jojo Ingrassia L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.97 | 26.7% | 13.8% | 2.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.60 | 112 | 69 |
| Drake Owenby L 2024 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.88 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 140 | 69 |
| Tyler Holton L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.18 | 22.0% | 6.6% | 2.0% | .393 | 3.47 | 22.0% | 16.1% | 224 | +0.29 | 3.02 | 409 | 68 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.77 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 154 | 64 |
| Avery Weems L 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.13 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 5.0% | .323 | 5.19 | 20.5% | 12.3% | 38 | +0.06 | 2.46 | 227 | 64 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.64 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .314 | 3.18 | 21.5% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.46 | 3.18 | 150 | 64 |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.67 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .359 | 3.64 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.03 | 3.64 | 133 | 64 |
| Jacques Pucheu L 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.21 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 134 | 64 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.49 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .349 | 3.45 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.04 | 3.42 | 383 | 64 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.99 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 3.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 196 | 64 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .322 | 5.90 | 28.8% | 13.9% | 13 | +2.06 | 3.84 | 249 | 64 |
| Tommy Vail L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.91 | 27.5% | 15.3% | 2.2% | .237 | 5.18 | 19.7% | 3.3% | 81 | +1.27 | 3.91 | 151 | 63 |
| Edgar Barclay L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.79 | 24.5% | 13.6% | 3.7% | .307 | 5.60 | 16.5% | 4.9% | 157 | +0.81 | 2.06 | 402 | 63 |
| Zac Lowther L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.60 | 20.9% | 10.6% | 3.5% | .328 | 5.76 | 17.8% | 7.2% | 44 | +1.16 | 3.02 | 375 | 63 |
| Anthony Banda L 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.45 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 5.1% | .280 | 4.44 | 20.7% | 12.2% | 110 | -1.01 | 2.98 | 876 | 63 |
| Nico Tellache L 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .373 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.89 | 160 | 63 |