Luis Cepeda — OGILVIE

Luis Cepeda P ACL Royals

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 175 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.25

FIP4.25

K%23.1%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%14.6%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals 1	10	6	27	110	31	9	1	60%	2.7	19.2%	10.2%	8.9%	1.3%	1.98	3.48	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals 1	10	6	27	110	31	9	1	60%	2.7	28.2%	8.2%	20.0%	0.9%	1.98	2.30	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals 1	12	12	49	195	61	6	4	100%	4.1	21.3%	3.8%	17.4%	2.9%	2.37	3.37	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals 1	12	12	49	195	61	6	4	100%	4.1	31.3%	3.1%	28.2%	2.1%	2.37	2.05	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	8	4	22	92	24	6	3	50%	2.7	17.7%	8.2%	9.6%	4.4%	2.49	5.06	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	8	4	22	92	24	6	3	50%	2.7	26.1%	6.5%	19.6%	3.3%	2.49	3.52	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	8	2	16	83	22	4	2	25%	2.0	18.0%	6.0%	12.0%	3.4%	8.27	4.19	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	8	2	16	83	22	4	2	25%	2.0	18.0%	6.0%	12.0%	3.4%	8.27	4.19	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	8	2	16	83	22	4	2	25%	2.0	26.5%	4.8%	21.7%	2.4%	8.27	2.73	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	KC	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	23.1%	8.5%	14.6%	3.0%	4.25	4.25	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	KC	3	3	20	84	20	7	3	100%	6.7	23.4%	8.5%	14.8%	3.0%	4.24	4.24	+0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	KC	2	2	9	38	9	3	1	100%	4.5	23.4%	8.5%	14.8%	3.0%	4.24	4.24	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	9	36	8	3	1	100%	8.6	23.4%	8.5%	14.8%	3.0%	4.24	3.85	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	187	70	23	100%	6.0	23.4%	8.5%	14.8%	3.0%	4.24	3.85	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		38	24	115	480	94	31	14	63%	3.0	19.6%	6.5%	13.0%	2.9%	3.14	3.86	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	42	200	837	164	55	24	63%	3.0	19.6%	6.5%	13.0%	2.9%	3.14	3.86	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Cepeda (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	23.1%	8.5%	3.0%	—	4.24	23.3%	14.8%	20	-0.01	—	—	—
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	80
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.83	21.4%	10.7%	156	-0.19	2.44	171	74
Hunter Patteson L 2023 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	21.0%	5.5%	2.1%	.372	5.09	16.9%	7.7%	328	+1.93	3.16	344	72
Parker Mushinski L 2021 · 3.50 FIP	25	SW	3.50	24.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.357	4.06	21.3%	11.5%	143	+0.56	3.11	455	70
Tyler Holton L 2021 · 3.35 FIP	25	SW	3.35	22.0%	6.6%	2.3%	.393	3.41	22.0%	16.1%	224	+0.06	2.97	436	70
Drake Owenby L 2017 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP-	4.13	23.4%	7.8%	3.7%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	140	69
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	66
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	66
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	66
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	65
Jacques Pucheu L 2022 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP-	3.18	21.4%	8.2%	1.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	134	64
Edgar Barclay L 2023 · 4.71 FIP	25	SW	4.71	23.8%	12.1%	3.8%	.307	5.59	15.7%	5.5%	157	+0.88	2.06	402	64
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	64
Aaron Rozek L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	25	SP-	3.93	24.2%	3.1%	4.5%	.263	4.72	16.3%	8.7%	298	+0.79	3.70	569	63
Ian Seymour L 2023 · 3.15 FIP	24	SP	3.15	21.1%	7.7%	1.6%	.224	3.32	25.7%	19.3%	411	+0.17	2.92	485	63
Chaz Hebert L 2017 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	15.6%	8.7%	2.9%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	167	62
Zac Lowther L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	20.9%	10.6%	3.5%	.328	5.67	17.8%	7.2%	44	+1.10	3.09	375	62
Brady Basso L 2023 · 3.47 FIP	25	SP	3.47	20.6%	7.0%	2.2%	.264	4.04	20.2%	14.3%	196	+0.57	2.24	306	62
Nick Zwack L 2023 · 5.41 FIP	24	SP-	5.41	20.2%	9.6%	5.1%	.346	5.48	17.9%	7.3%	102	+0.07	3.16	289	62
Rob Zastryzny L 2017 · 4.88 FIP	25	SW	4.88	17.5%	8.2%	4.0%	.328	4.46	18.1%	8.9%	169	-0.42	3.34	634	61