Luis Cepeda
P
ACL Royals
+0.1
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.4%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.2%
IP14
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Royals 1 | 10 | 6 | 27 | 110 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 1.3% | 1.98 | 3.48 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Royals 1 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 195 | 61 | 6 | 4 | 21.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.37 | 3.37 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Royals | 8 | 4 | 22 | 92 | 24 | 6 | 3 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 2.49 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Royals | 8 | 2 | 16 | 83 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 8.27 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | KC | 14 | — | 14 | 59 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | KC | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 24 | 115 | 480 | 94 | 31 | 14 | 19.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 3.14 | 3.82 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 42 | 200 | 837 | 164 | 54 | 24 | 19.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 3.14 | 3.82 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Cepeda (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.30 | 23.6% | 14.4% | 20 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.47 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 4.16 | 19.5% | 9.2% | 53 | -0.31 | 4.16 | 101 | 85 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .379 | 4.39 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 80 | +1.10 | 3.29 | 142 | 84 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.63 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.62 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.99 | 3.63 | 206 | 84 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 83 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.92 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.57 | 3.35 | 147 | 82 |
| Jeff Malm L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.14 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 101 | 81 |
| Darien Núñez L 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.22 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.63 | 2.48 | 122 | 81 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.21 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 1.4% | .276 | 4.94 | 23.0% | 2.4% | 14 | +1.73 | 2.63 | 160 | 80 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 1.5% | .331 | 3.71 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 167 | +0.42 | 3.12 | 310 | 80 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.49 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 3.65 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.16 | 3.47 | 160 | 80 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .341 | 8.17 | 20.1% | 1.1% | 25 | +4.12 | 3.97 | 158 | 80 |
| Jake Kalish L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.87 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .231 | 3.89 | 17.0% | 11.9% | 352 | +0.02 | 2.68 | 740 | 79 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2028 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 79 |
| Peyton Alford L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.70 | 28.0% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .303 | 4.47 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 113 | +0.77 | 3.70 | 229 | 78 |
| Jake Miednik L 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.93 | 23.7% | 11.7% | 4.3% | .308 | 6.03 | 10.5% | -4.1% | 32 | +1.10 | 1.55 | 126 | 78 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 78 |
| Tyler Webb L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .324 | 3.32 | 24.3% | 17.3% | 185 | -0.41 | 3.10 | 337 | 78 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 78 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 78 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.27 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .317 | 3.29 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 135 | -0.98 | 2.97 | 245 | 77 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.